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Astros off-season : The Big Domino Falls

Certainly, the Kyle Tucker trade was a big move in this off-season, showing the way the team might be headed. But for some of us that trade signaled that the Astros could be clearing up the payroll to allow them to re-sign Alex Bregman.

But the reported signing of Christian Walker (3 years/$60 MM) on Friday closed the door on Alex Bregman returning to the Astros. This not only put the Astros just over the luxury tax but, more importantly, solved the first base problem the Astros had in 2023-2024 and allowed the newly acquired Isaac Paredes to play third base and not be a filler at first base in 2025.

This signing solidified a lot of areas in one fell swoop:

  • Astro fans were concerned that the team was going to sit around waiting for Alex Bregman to make a decision on his destination and that other teams would pass them up on making moves while they were frozen in time.
  • As mentioned above it solved the biggest lineup hole of the 2024 season. It added a hitter who should be in the top 4 hitters in the lineup with Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Yainer Diaz. It allows Paredes and Jeremy Pena to likely fill those 5th and 6th spots in the lineup and helps strengthen a lineup that would have been in disarray after losing Tucker and Bregman this off-season.
  • It strengthens their defense as they add the National League Gold Glove first baseman for 2022-24. This has been a concern since Yuli Gurriel left the team.
  • It assures that Yainer Diaz and Victor Caratini can focus on the catcher spot and not be bouncing back and forth from behind the plate to first base.
  • It gives them a solid core for the next three seasons, at least, with Altuve (Signed thru 2029). Alvarez (Signed thru 2028), Diaz (Control thru 2028), Pena (Control thru 2027), Paredes (Control thru 2027) and Walker (Signed thru 2027).

Looking back, this move was imminent the moment it was announced that Nolan Arenado had vetoed a trade with the Astros. In retrospect that meant the Astros had decided not to wait on Bregman and were ready to move on other options.

Why didn’t they go after Walker first? I hate to say it, but I think it was for the wrong reason – money. If they traded for Arenado they would be on the hook for a reported $15 MM a year for the next three seasons. This would have been less than the Walker $20 MM per year commitment and would have (at least temporarily) kept the team under the luxury tax limit. However, it could have been because they did not want to sacrifice a second and fifth round pick in the upcoming draft and $1 million in their international free agent signing pool. That is because the D’Backs gave Walker a Qualifying offer, and the Astros are sacrificing more because they were over the luxury tax level in 2024.

The most fascinating thing about the trade is that the Astros are saying – yes, we blew the Jose Abreu signing (3 years/ $58.5 MM) signing, but we are not afraid to give basically the same deal to another veteran mid 30’s star first baseman.

Should we be worried that Walker is Abreu 2.0? I’m leaning towards no.

  • First, he is more than 2 years younger than Abreu at his signing point.
  • His numbers were down a bit in 2024, but that is totally due to missing the month of August with an oblique strain, but he came back in September and continued his solid season.
  • Looking closely at Abreu’s last season with the White Sox there were signs of a power outage that only grew worse with the Astros. Walker showed no such drop-off.
  • Over his last three seasons Walker has put up a .250 BA/ .332 OBP/ .813 OPS with 87 doubles, 95 HRs and 281 RBIs. For comparison, Bregman over the last 3 seasons hit .260 BA/ .349 OBP/ .798 OPS with 96 doubles, 74 HRs and 266 RBIs. Basically, he gets on base less but has more power and drives in more runs.

Could Walker collapse and do another Abreu swoon? Sure, anything is possible. He could also flourish or at least repeat the solid numbers he has shown in Arizona.

But it looks like a solid move and allows the team to move on to other areas, like – how about that crappy-looking outfield?

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34 responses to “Astros off-season : The Big Domino Falls”

  2. I’m ready for the Astros to finish the deal. Use Framber to get that quality outfielder and another solid young arm purposed as a starter. With that done, we might even have enough under the cap to get someone like Heyward to hit against righties. And I would not cheat Dezenzo out of a real shot in left field.

    We’ll probably never know the story behind the approach to Arenado, but I’m glad it failed. I think once we all watch Walker work around first base, we’ll wonder how we managed to get by without a real first baseman since Yuli left. Walker is in good shape. His advanced stats are solid. He’ll be a boost.

    We really need for Paredes to hold the fort down at third, if only for a year. I’m really excited about watching Smith and Matthews continue to develop. Will either guy become our longer term 3B? At the very least, I’m pretty sure at least one of them has the tools to help in the outfield by 2026.

    So Bregman is gone. Like Correa and Springer before him, the Astro offer was not enough. But I think history will prove that once again, that the Astro offer was a wise one. Today I wonder how much more Alex will get. As far as I’m concerned, nobody comes in on a ball down the line as well as Bregman. But I won’t miss the pop ups to the right side and I especially won’t miss his annual slow start. But I’ll appreciate all of the big moments he’s provided over the past years.

    I don’t know what the Astros will do in 2025, but I’m encouraged and I’m looking forward to it.

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  3. I’m just glad that this Bregman tension is over. He’s going to miss Houston more than Houston misses him in my opinion. He was always an excellent 3rd in the field, but would only provide good offense in the 2nd half . If the Astros could just find a left side bat for the outfield without trading our top few prospects, the Astros might compete for the division next year.

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  4. So far, so good. I agree that we need to move Framber. No way we’re going to pay him what he’ll be looking for come free agency time. As the saying goes you have to press your pants when the irons hot. There’s still time but hopefully there’s a trade out there for us that’s a good deal.

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  5. I’m trying to keep this Framber trade alive.

    Three names today to help fix the Astro outfield.

    Wyler Abreu. Come home! He might be the most realistic guy to get. He won’t hit lefties, but 5 days a week he’ll give you an .800 OPS against right handed pitching and will play excellent right field. Better than Tucker.

    Roman Anthony. He’s the guy that might make it easier to get Abreu. Boston has outfielders. Check his minor league stats out. I’d go for him first but he’d be a long shot.

    Colton Cowser. Cypress Texas. Another excellent defensive guy with home run power. This one would be a tough sell, because Cowser is presently part of their future, especially if Mullins goes. But if Corbin Burnes is done in Baltimore, they are already looking for a Framber type guy and there are not any left hanging around.

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    • Roman Anthony is probably the best prospect in the Red Sox system. I saw him at Portland last year and he looked like a surefire Major Leaguer and future All Star. His power dropped off a bit once promoted to AAA, but the way the ball exploded off his bat makes me think he’s going to be good for 20+ HR every year. He hits it really well to CF, though, and I’m not sure Boston or Houston will maximize his output based on our weird field dimensions. If we could get him for Framber I’m all on board.

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  6. Rickey Henderson passed away yesterday. Would have turned 66 on Christmas day. This is the passing of a baseball legend during my time as a fan.

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    1. The Astros are known for their development of starting pitchers. Without mentioning the improvement of veterans they acquire, who then get better and increase their value, I will stick with the pitchers they have now that they developed in their system. Framber- Brown- Blanco- Arrighetti- Garcia- France- Javier- McCullers, Jr.- Abreu- Whitley. All of these guys are on the roster. Add to them the starters at AAA, Blubaugh- Gusto- Gordon and the newly arrived, Wesneski. Then add the youngsters being developed for the future- Ullola and Tamarez, Mancini and a few others. I believe the Astros could Trade Framber for 3 good prospects and still be secure for their future on the mound.
    2. The Astros have outfielders in their system in for the future in Smith, Melton and Baez. If they can add another with a Framber trade, they will have choices to add to their current outfield. I don’t rule out Dezenzo being added to that group either.

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  8. Gosh, Sean Manaea getting 75 million over 3 years? I’ve underestimated Framber’s value. If the Astros really are planning on holding on to him in 2025, I can only guess that perhaps the Astros and Framber are working on somewhat of a team friendly extension.

    Because otherwise, he’s our only real path to quality help in the outfield for the coming season and letting him walk after 2025 for nothing would make no real sense.

    Alas, it’s early, plenty of time after the holiday.

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  9. There is almost 4 years in age difference between Walker and Abreu (March 1991 to January 1987). I am not concerned. Jose Abreu was 36 when he swung at his first pitch as an Astro, Walker will be 34, by just a few days.

    I don’t know what to believe when I hear that Walker puts the Astros over the cap. I hear it on SportsMap, ESPN Radio, but sportrac shows all contracts, and with the arbitration estimates has them at 240M. The threshold this year is 241M. I guess even one arbitration goes bad, they go over. Heck two injuries and major league promotions could put them over. I guess this is why they are making such an effort to trade Pressly.

    If the Astros want to hold off what I suspect will be a surging Rangers club and want to win 2025, Framber Valdez gives them the best chance to do that. It will come with the effect of losing him for nothing though, as the Astros are not likely to give him the 6/180 he is going to draw on the market from the Mets/Yankees. Of course this is contingent on Framber not falling apart. Thats why I never understood why pitchers are not banging their drums years out, when you have performed the way Framber has, get paid while you can. Position players tend to not have injuries impact them the same way. If you can get the Astros to agree to a 4 year, 90M extenion right now, why not take it? 6/180 sounds a lot better, until the team announces TJ surgery in June, and next thing you know you are looking for a 1 year deal in 2026 to try and get back to the point of a real contract.

    I’m probably just the crazy one, but I don’t know why the Astros aren’t just saying Zach Dezenzo will be their left fielder on opening day. He gives you the best shot at an offensive output that looks major league-ish, and defense has never been the thing in LF of the ice/juice box. You could even make a platoon of Dezenzo/Singleton, where Yordan goes out to LF on days the matchup is tough on young Dezenzo to get another lefty in the lineup (yes I assume Singleton is still on this roster because of their lack of lefty bats). And Dubon is there for late inning defensive replacement. Plenty of ways to accentuate strengths of some of these guys while still limiting their overall playing time to limit weaknesses.

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  10. Steven,

    I’m fully with you on Walker. He looks much better in a baseball uniform than Jose Abreu did on arrival in Houston. I’m as excited about the defense he’ll provide as I am about his offense.

    I sure hope it does not go that way with Framber. He’s a valuable commodity. I’d much rather have what talent we can get for him and let them loose. That said, I’d embrace that extension now. Framber, being the high-strung guy he can be at times, might be better off here and he might realize it. And he might not.

    You’re not the only crazy one. 1oldpro and I have already thought about Zach. He would be my pick for the first guy to step up and own a job. I do hope you’re wrong about Singleton keeping a job on the 26 man roster however. I’m hoping they can squeeze Heyward’s lefty bat into the equation though.

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    • I like Dezenzo, but he hasn’t had as many AB in the minors as you would have liked by this point. On one hand a platoon where you can hide him against unfavorable matchups might help ease him into the big leagues, but the inconsistent playing time may also make it tough on him. I hope the Astros have communicated that he has a chance to win a starting job this spring, but obviously filling his two primary positions via trade and a free agent signing that costs them a QO can’t inspire his confidence too much.

      I was wrong about Abreu. I though he could roll out of bed, slip into our lineup, and drive in 90+ runs. I guess he managed it in 2023, but it was pretty ugly. I still think someone as strong as him could have made an adjustment to drive the ball out to RF at all opportunities, but so many of his fly balls that way were just plain weak. I don’t think Walker will suffer the same decline, and at least if he struggles his defense will help the team.

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  12. Hey delete this if inappropriate. I have some big bobble heads, they are from 2022. All I’m asking is for them to find a good home with an Astros fan, so all you need to pay for is shipping from Mexico. I haven’t priced shipping but they don’t weight much. They are Altuve, Bregman, Yordan and Pena. The Pena is his MVP one. They have the WS trophy. If anyone is interested I can send photos and will figure the shipping. You can email me at memphiskong6@gmail.com. I just want them to go to a fan.

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  16. For the last time, I will point this out: The only position player on the 2017 Astros WS champion who refused to cheat(according to his former teammates) was Jose Altuve. Every other Astros position player from that team was allowed to move on and Jose is still around and working under another extension. The owner waved goodbye to the others. Ironically, Altuve is the one who gets booed the most, while all the rest of them are gone somewhere else and were/are cheered by their new-found fans.

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    • That is the plus of having prospects with position flexibility.

      Bregman a SS who went to 3B.

      Yuli/ Bagwell – 3Bs who went to first

      and onward..

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  21. Good morning and Happy Boxing Day.

    Brice Matthews played on four Astro clubs in 2024 and had pretty solid stats, except for his last 12 games, played with the Space Cowboys.

    Over all though, a .265 BA, .384 OBP, .481 SLG, and an .865 OPS.

    What gets me more excited though are his home stats throughout the season, playing in four different home parks.

    A .331 BA, .452 OBP, .621 SLB and a 1.073 OPS.

    Those OBP stats impress me the most. I think he played 42 games with the Hooks, his longest stint with one club. Something tells me that once he’s able to unpack the suitcase and settle in with the AAA club, he’ll start hitting, home and away. Especially away. And I also hope Brice gets fast tracked into playing a lot of outfield this spring. He’s not really needed in the infield right now.

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  22. Good morning and Happy Boxing Day.

    Brice Matthews played on four Astro clubs in 2024 and had pretty solid stats, except for his last 12 games, played with the Space Cowboys.

    Over all though, a .265 BA, .384 OBP, .481 SLG, and an .865 OPS.

    What gets me more excited though are his home stats throughout the season, playing in four different home parks.

    A .331 BA, .452 OBP, .621 SLB and a 1.073 OPS.

    Those OBP stats impress me the most. I think he played 42 games with the Hooks, his longest stint with one club. Something tells me that once he’s able to unpack the suitcase and settle in with the AAA club, he’ll start hitting, home and away. Especially away. And I also hope Brice gets fast tracked into playing a lot of outfield this spring. He’s not really needed in the infield right now.

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