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Astros’ Offseason and the Spoiled Fan Blues

A couple weeks ago, I asked for suggestions for off-season content and received a great suggestion from a friend of the blog, Steven. He suggested we take a deep dive into the Astros position by position, looking at what was available at the MLB level and who might be only a step or two away.

That is a terrific suggestion, but there is only one problem here. Your favorite content writer (no ego here – lol) is deep in the writing doldrums. I could blame it on the holidays or the illness in the family that has distracted me.

But frankly, I am blaming the malaise on what I call the spoiled fan blues.

First, let’s talk about how “spoiled” we are.

My father, bless his soul, was a huge Astros fan from when he moved to Houston in 1966 to when he passed away too soon in 2001. First, he had to wait 14 seasons to see his favorite team make the playoffs. And then he had to wait….forever…..to see his favorite team win a playoff series. They never won a series in his lifetime.

Fans of the team who lived, let’s say, until 2014 saw them win three playoff series, one in 2004 and two in 2005, and, of course, watched them get swept in their only World Series appearance. They also had to watch as their team was deconstructed and lost an average of 104 games a season for four seasons (2011-2014). Many fans did not even see this time period as the great battle over cable rights stripped about 60% of the fans from access. Not a remarkable period in the team’s history.

Then think about what has taken place in the last decade.

  • Two World Series Championships
  • Four World Series appearances
  • Seven consecutive ALCS appearances
  • Nine playoff appearances in ten seasons
  • Fifteen Playoff series wins
  • One MVP winner
  • Three Cy Young winners
  • Two Rookie of the Year winners
  • Three batting champs
  • Ten Gold Glove winners
  • Thirty-Six All Stars

And after all that, we are dissatisfied with a playoff appearance in 2024 that was short and not so sweet and with the concern that the team that is being assembled for 2025 might only win the mediocre AL West and not the whole enchilada.

I used to hate the typical Yankee fan, who was upset when they were not winning a championship every other year (after winning 27 in their history). The Astro fans, including myself, are not near that neighborhood of hubris and presumption. But perhaps we need to swallow a little humble pie to gain perspective on what we have witnessed during this Astros Renaissance.

For myself, I promise to get back in the saddle soon and enjoy my memories, and I hope for more of the same. And get after writing those position-by-position reviews.

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35 responses to “Astros’ Offseason and the Spoiled Fan Blues”

  2. Apparently, the Astros and Cardinals had something in place and Arenado used his no trade clause to block it. Hopefully the Astros don’t go full tilt to get him to change his mind. There is enough dead money on the books.

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    • Thank God for no trade clause’s. If Arenado used the clause to block the trade, then the Astros should certainly not try to push it. The man does not want to play here.

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      • Not to panic you daveb but supposedly Arenado did not issue an absolute on not coming to Houston – he just thought it was too early in the off-season to commit himself.

        Perhaps they don’t think that Arenado is Abreu 2.0 – a better glove – two years younger than Abreu was in 2023 – maybe the Cards are picking up a bigger chunk of his future money. I don’t know.

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      • Well, I sure hope the Astros do not sit around through the off-season waiting on Nolan to make a determination.

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      • The rumored thing he told Cardinals management, “it’s no, for now.”

        I think he is hoping one of the teams on his list react first, not that he is giving the Astros a hard no. I still think there is a better chance than not he is the Astros opening day 3B. I have lost all confidence in Dana Brown, this is turning into a bad hire.

        Personally, I never understood how a player that is now playing at replacement level can tell people he will only play for a contender, when he himself cannot really help that team contend. Matter of fact, playing at replacement level while being paid at a star level will help your team do the exact opposite. But I don’t think he realizes he is no longer THE Nolan Arenado, he is now just A Nolan Arenado. And you don’t know if this decline he is on is a straight line decline or if he levels off and gives you 3 years of what he just gave the Cardinals, which is the best you can hope for, and is certainly not worth the money he is owed.

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      • The rumored thing he told Cardinals management, “it’s no, for now.”

        I think he is hoping one of the teams on his list react first, not that he is giving the Astros a hard no. I still think there is a better chance than not he is the Astros opening day 3B. I have lost all confidence in Dana Brown, this is turning into a bad hire.

        Personally, I never understood how a player that is now playing at replacement level can tell people he will only play for a contender, when he himself cannot really help that team contend. Matter of fact, playing at replacement level while being paid at a star level will help your team do the exact opposite. But I don’t think he realizes he is no longer THE Nolan Arenado, he is now just A Nolan Arenado. And you don’t know if this decline he is on is a straight line decline or if he levels off and gives you 3 years of what he just gave the Cardinals, which is the best you can hope for, and is certainly not worth the money he is owed.

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    • I can’t understand acquiring Arenado if it’s going to cost anything more than money. It makes a lot of sense why he would not have Houston on his list of approved teams. Reason A is the lack of an extension given to Bregman. If the Astros are cutting bait because of salary, age, and expected performance in future years then Arenado is likely smart enough to see the writing on the wall and know a long term contract extension isn’t happening at a price he wants. Reason B is the Kyle Tucker trade. The team is worse now than we were for 2025. Arenado knows despite his salary, he can’t replace Tucker’s contributions and even a Paredes/Arenado tandem is lost value compared to Bregman/Tucker. Reason C is that he’s only made it out of the WC round in the playoffs once and sports a .385 OPS in postseason at bats. The last thing he wants it to potentially go somewhere he would have to carry the offense in big games. He wants to go to the Dodgers or Mets. I bet the Yankees are an option if they give him some extra years.

      I hate this trade idea. If you were paying him $8M a year it would make sense. Owing someone $64M over the next three years who is declining on the offensive end and is talking about a move to first base is just not a wise investment.

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  3. Dan, this can be a father post. My dad tried, making it 95 years, but came up just short of the 2017 win. Gosh, he was a critical Astro fan. Maybe that’s how I got to be me. He hated Bagwells swing and did not care when we continually pointed out his stats. He loved Jose Altuve from the start, but certainly would cringe when he did Jose things on the bases. They shared May 6 as their Birthday. My father knew every intricacy of the game. And his crystal clear recollections went back to the late 1920’s. He sure helped make me a baseball fan.

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  5. Daveb – the one thing that I certainly inherited from my father was the useless ability to yell at players through the television. I would like to think that he was worse than me – but it was one of those things that he was consistent about. My wife tells me it does not help and she is certainly correct – but it is almost instinctual.

    Even when Dad was very, very sick – if the Astros were on the TV in the background and an Astros struck out with the bases loaded or walked a batter with a lead and nobody on base – he would mutter at them in disgust.

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    • Dan – I had to laugh at your post about your Dad yelling at the TV. My Dad who passed in 2004 used to do the same thing. My Mother would say, “why are you yelling at the TV, they can’t hear you.” To which my Dad replied, ” I’ll yell at it if I want to because it makes me feel better.” I always though that was hilarious since my Dad as a rule showed little emotion most of the time. He was kind of like an E F Hutton because “when he spoke people listened” (except for me sometimes). I wish that I could be more like him.

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  7. Though I am not an die hard Arenado fan, when I compared the deal the Astros offered Bregman and the deal the Astros reportedly offered the Cards for Arenado, I see the potential for a lot more dead money at the end of Bregman’s deal.

    Bregman taking so long to decide and Arenado not wanting to come to Houston, screams to me that the Astros should start the work of trading Framber right now and further add to the top of their prospect list, cut their 2025 payroll and start preparing to reload for 2026 and beyond.

    The era of Springer, Correa, Cole, Tucker, Gurriel, Bregman, Kuechel and Verlander is over and done with. Time for the next phase of Astros Baseball to go into motion right now.

    I don’t think the Astros should go out of their way to get rid of Pressly. They should find a place for him in the 2025 bullpen and let him go out gracefully. He can contribute something to a bullpen that is still good.

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    • 1oldpro, you know what side of the fence I’m on. I don’t think it has to be terribly painful either. I won’t mind if we miss the post season. I want to see that younger, aggressive, speedy, Astro type club of almost a decade ago again. Heck, we’ve already got a bunch of good players. And I suspect we’ve got a couple of guys that have not shown themselves yet. So yes, even though the latest rumors are that Framber likely will not be going anywhere, I hope they are bad rumors. If the Astros don’t want to spend the money it will take to get a Christian Walker, I’m good with that too. And I really hope Bagwell pushing an Arenado deal does not have legs. I’ll take the bumps and bruises, the young decisions a younger team will mean.

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  8. And the other thing I am not getting – the Astros are not a hard rebuild. This team, as it’s constructed right this second, still has Yordan, Yainer, Altuve, Pena, Brown, Blanco, Framber, Abreu, Hader, a host of players built to win. Are there holes? More than last year. They probably won’t start 7-21 either though. They can still win this division. So why the panic trade for a declining 3B that will be 34 soon and has 3 very expensive years left? Why offer Bregman that salary? He wants more, and he arguably won’t be worth what you even offered him. Move on. Paredes is fine at 3B. Take a shot at upgrading 1B if you can find it without taking on a bad money, if not, fine roll with Singleton, sit him against lefties by putting Diaz over there and catching Caratini, and focus on winning.

    The biggest hole isn’t even the infield at this point, it’s that you don’t even have one plus outfielder much less 3. Dubon, McCormick and Meyers would open your OF if you were to play a game tomorrow. Fix that if anything.

    I’m not losing confidence in Dana Brown because he isn’t doing what I want, I’m losing confidence because the things he is either doing or talking about doing or trying to do just make no sense. Trade for Arenado? Offer Bregman 6/156? “Talking” to Verlander’s agent?

    As OP said, it’s just time to move on. This isn’t Luhnow’s team anymore. Time for Hunter Brown and Yainer Diaz and Jeremy Pena and Spencer Arrighetti to become the face of the team and move forward. It doesn’t need 34 year old “stars” in decline to come in and take all the good parking spots.

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    • I think it’s worse than you make it out to be. My first instinct was to believe the Bregman offer is just so they can say to the fans, “look, we tried, but he really wanted to play for LA/BOS/DET/Yakult/wherever.” I’m now concerned someone thinks they’re clever knowing a market at his asking price is unlikely to materialize and thinking he could cave and accept their offer if things get too late in the winter. If so, that hurts us for two big reasons. First, we can’t spend what little salary room we do have for fear we will have to use it on him. Second, we are going to watch the viable candidates for outfield go elsewhere before Dana Brown even gets to the dance floor. We may already be at that point.

      Regarding Arenado, I hate admitting when someone on MLBTR makes a good point, but reading the comments I must admit it’s possible he is waiting out the Bregman signing knowing there will still be suitors for him, he can probably pry an extension out of someone when a trade happens, and it keeps the MLBPA happy if he helps other players sign long term contracts worth bigger bucks.

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  9. And the other thing I am not getting – the Astros are not a hard rebuild. This team, as it’s constructed right this second, still has Yordan, Yainer, Altuve, Pena, Brown, Blanco, Framber, Abreu, Hader, a host of players built to win. Are there holes? More than last year. They probably won’t start 7-21 either though. They can still win this division. So why the panic trade for a declining 3B that will be 34 soon and has 3 very expensive years left? Why offer Bregman that salary? He wants more, and he arguably won’t be worth what you even offered him. Move on. Paredes is fine at 3B. Take a shot at upgrading 1B if you can find it without taking on a bad money, if not, fine roll with Singleton, sit him against lefties by putting Diaz over there and catching Caratini, and focus on winning.

    The biggest hole isn’t even the infield at this point, it’s that you don’t even have one plus outfielder much less 3. Dubon, McCormick and Meyers would open your OF if you were to play a game tomorrow. Fix that if anything.

    I’m not losing confidence in Dana Brown because he isn’t doing what I want, I’m losing confidence because the things he is either doing or talking about doing or trying to do just make no sense. Trade for Arenado? Offer Bregman 6/156? “Talking” to Verlander’s agent?

    As OP said, it’s just time to move on. This isn’t Luhnow’s team anymore. Time for Hunter Brown and Yainer Diaz and Jeremy Pena and Spencer Arrighetti to become the face of the team and move forward. It doesn’t need 34 year old “stars” in decline to come in and take all the good parking spots.

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  10. I know I am old and not as sharp as I used to be, but I can still discern what I read: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/nolan-arenado-trade-rumors-blocks-astros-dodgers.html, and what I read is that Arenado is playing political shenanigans trying to worm his way onto the Dodgers and trying to use the Astros as part of his tool kit to make that happen. I hope the Astros see this as clearly as I do and stay far away from Nolan Arenado. I remember from back in my Freeport days that when you are fishing for something good, you throw the sheepshead back!

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  11. You know, if Bagwell really has been the driver of this Arenado deal, Dana Brown should quit. It would be a no win situation for him.

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    • Heck, I did not think we’d get him for 3/60. I was not pleased waiting on Bregman. And I was certainly not pleased with the option of trading for Arenado, especially based on his advanced stats.

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  17. Quick notes. I like Walker extending this lineup. He will push Paredes and Pena down to spots, and his advanced metrics seem to have no indicators that scare you. His walk rates are in line, his hard hit percentages are actually higher than previous seasons, line drive rates are fine. He is a middle of the field hitter that has stayed that – no indication that he is becoming “pull happy” so the years have been kind to his ability to control the strike zone.

    Adding another OF that can push Pena down a spot should be the next piece. Heyward is out there still, as Hernandez, Santander, and Profar all seem out of Houston’s reach at this point. No fan of JayHey, but he can JayHey Pena down a spot and give us another lefty to replace McCormick when it matters. They won’t say it out loud, but there is probably a hope that Melton can provide some help. I’m always skeptical of guys that have growth between their BB and K’s as levels increase. In 2023 Melton had 52/99, last year 31/104. That inability to control the zone as he moves up is worth keeping an eye on.

    If there is a major league quality middle of the order bat available along with a prospect or two for Framber, I think the Astros should take it. If you can free up enough salary JV is always available on a 1 year deal, or you could just simply go with Brown/Blanco/Arrighetti/Garcia/Wiesneski/McCullers with Blubaugh, Gusto and France available to give you innings at some point.

    Some interesting discussion on Lorenzen and this “Ohtani” rule. His agent is saying he might sign with a non-contender that agrees to give him 20 games at DH before the deadline so he gains the “Ohtani” tag and no longer counts as a pitcher on the roster. The Dodgers sit at a crazy advantage being able to carry a 14th pitcher, so they essentially get to go with a 6 man rotation and still have a 8 man bullpen. The idea is the non-contender then, after getting Lorenzen “Ohtani” rule qualified, can trade him to a contender willing to pay a better price for being able to carry a 14th pitcher. It sounds like the commissioners office is going to have a busy rule review at the end of 2025.

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    • I think Lorenzen’s plan is extremely dumb and therefore I like it. I don’t think it benefits most teams, but if it makes Manfred angry it’s worth consideration. Benches are already thin. Losing a hitter for most clubs will hurt them more than getting an extra reliever.

      Here’s what I don’t understand – players must be designated as a two way player before the season starts. To be eligible they must get 20 innings / 20 games with 3+ at bats in either the previous or current season. So what happens if the Astros designated Jon Singleton as a 2 way player and he only pitches in 19 innings this season? How would they get penalized? I think there are a number of fringe outfielders who could do it.

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  18. I’m still for moving Framber. We should be able to get a quality outfielder and another starter for him. I think Heyward is a good move too, as long as he’s only hitting against righties. And Zach Dezenzo is a good athlete. I’m happy that he’s been splitting his time in Puerto Rico between first base and left field. I think he can forget about first for now and get all of his reps in the outfield going forward.

    Astro fans are going to be very pleased once they’ve had a regular chance to see Walker around the bag. I think he was +13 runs saved in 2024. The Astros were -10 at first base last year.

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  19. I’m still for moving Framber. We should be able to get a quality outfielder and another starter for him. I think Heyward is a good move too, as long as he’s only hitting against righties. And Zach Dezenzo is a good athlete. I’m happy that he’s been splitting his time in Puerto Rico between first base and left field. I think he can forget about first for now and get all of his reps in the outfield going forward.

    Astro fans are going to be very pleased once they’ve had a regular chance to see Walker around the bag. I think he was +13 runs saved in 2024. The Astros were -10 at first base last year.

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  20. Getting a two way player like Lorenzen would certainly fulfill Dana Brown’s prediction of getting “creative”. I don’t believe I said that!

    Anyway, getting back to real life, Framber has to go. We need another young starting pitcher and a good young outfielder and we need to stay under the luxury tax line. If Brown could pull that off I would be a happy camper. We would have enough starting pitchers to go to a 6-man rotation, if needed, and still have some good starters in Sugarland to help out when needed.

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  21. I wonder when we’ll get a quote from Jose Altuve re his take on the state of the Astros? I hope he’s okay. In 2024 he had his biggest career disparity between strike outs and walks. If he gets back to being selective, it could set a good tone for the whole club. And if he is more selective, closer to career norms, he’ll see better pitches to hit. I hope he’s already considered that for 2025.

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