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Kyle Tucker goes to Chicago: Let’s see who won the trade

Just kidding there….two things that make me chuckle are:

  1. Deciding which team has won the NFL draft 20 minutes after the draft ends and
  2. Deciding who won an MLB trade 20 minutes after it has been announced.

I mean we are arguing about whether the Astros should have traded a package for Yusei Kikuchi ever since it occurred. Come back in about four years and maybe we will know if any of the chips sent the other way have been worth cashing by then.

Let’s take a quick look at the Tucker trade and see what we do know about it.

To the Cubs

  • Kyle Tucker – Right fielder – Turns 28 year old next month
    • Pluses – one of the best all around outfielders in the business. Can hit, hit with power, run the bases, field and throw. I think that is all five skills… He is also left-handed hitting but was solid against left-handed pitchers and helped balance out a right-handed heavy lineup.
    • Minuses – he is going to want more money per season for more seasons than the Astros would have been willing to give him, especially after the Juan Soto signing. He also has built a reputation as not that great in the last three playoff seasons.

To the Astros

  • Isaac Paredes – Infielder – Turns 26 in February
    • Pluses – Has played a lot of third base and a decent amount of first base – two positions that the Astros do (1st base) and may (3rd base) need help. He walks above the league average and strikes out below the league average. Likes to pull it to left (meet Mr. Crawford).
    • Minuses – After a very solid 2023 (.250 BA/ .352 OBP / .840 OPS) he dropped off in 2024, especially after his trade to the Cubs from the Rays. He is a middle of the road fielder – certainly not a gold glover like Alex Bregman, but probably better than Singleton at first.
  • Hayden Wesneski – Pitcher – Just turned 27
    • Pluses – Has pitched in relief and as a starter in the majors. Has an ERA just under 4 in the majors and a solid 1.168 WHIP. His 8.7 Ks/ 9 IP and 2.8 walks per 9 IP are decent.
    • Minuses – Has pitched better as a reliever than starter in the big leagues but not shutdown good. Likes to allow too many homers.
  • Cam Smith – 3B and Outfielder – Turns 22 in February
    • Pluses – Was the 14th player taken overall in the 2024 draft. Hit so well (.313 BA/ .396 OBP/ 1.004 OPS) in his short time with the Cubs organization that he played at A, A+ and AA levels last year.
    • Minuses – His jump up to AA was in only 32 games overall, so he could easily be a small sample-size warrior. 

Let’s face it. Rarely do these three-for-one trades bring back anyone who can actually come close to the superstar going the other way. If you can get a couple of solid major leaguers, that would be good. Cam Smith will be the key to the value of this trade and we may be many years down the road before we find that out.

What we can say is that we loved what Kyle Tucker brought to this team and will miss that player often. Good luck Kyle and thank you.

 

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29 responses to “Kyle Tucker goes to Chicago: Let’s see who won the trade”

  2. The Astros get six years of whatever Cam Smith has to give as a major leaguer, three years of whatever Paredes has to give and 5 years of whatever Wesneski has to give.

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  3. Obviously, there are plenty of “ifs” that we’ll just have to experience as they come. For right now, Cubs fans are very pleased.

    At the same time, I think Dana Brown did a pretty good job. A first round pick off to a solid start in the minors. A major leaguer able to play first or third immediately, and just a year removed from 31 homers and an .840 OPS. And then a pitcher that might be tweakable. Does he get stretched out and used as a starter, perhaps if a Framber trade is still on the way?

    I think there will be more to come.

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  5. Dana Brown now needs to go and get a quality lefty bat that is also not a defensive liability for the outfield. That’s where Framber comes in.

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  6. Brown’s comments about Valdez yesterday were as clear as a mouthful of oatmeal. We are not planning to trade him. He’s in our plans, though our plans could change, blah, blah blah.

    Brown said that when he told others that Tucker might be available, he started getting calls from interested teams. That is what he should do about Framber. They are not going to be able to resign him and they need to get a Tucker-like return for him. period.. If they don’t they will end up with a late third or fourth round draft pick for Framber in a year and a half. Or they could get three players right now. Rocket science?

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    • I was talking with another fan at work. His thought was that with Framber they might see how things are going at the trade deadline and then trade him if we are out of it. It makes some sense when you look at it, because even as a rental they might get a decent return at that time – teams seem to be pretty desperate for pitching at the deadline (Kikuchi).

      It was interesting talking to this acquaintance at work. His uncle is very good friends with Mets owner Steve Cohen – flashed a few pictures of his uncle with Cohen and some of the big name Mets. Cohen is like us fan wise except for his $20 billion value. He grew up a huge Mets fan and frankly is willing to do anything to build a winner of his childhood team – even if it cuts into that $20 billion. That is why he did not blink about Soto and why he did not try to go deferred payments.

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      • I’d prefer to see Framber bring us what he’ll bring us now. What if he gets hurt? Heaven forbid. What if he simply has a bad year, perhaps due to his knowledge that he could go at any point during the season? How does it feel to have one foot out the door?

        Let’s build what we can now.

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  7. I’m okay with the trade. Tucker was obviously not going to resign with the Astros so get what you can with him. I feel confident enough to say that the Astros asked him what he needs to stay and his response was too much.

    The club received a veteran who can hit the long ball and drive in runs.

    A pitcher who could turn into a solid rotation piece with the pitching gurus and, of course, home cooking in his hometown.

    A minor leaguer who has stud written all over him. Smith will probably start in Corpus and receive a quick ‘hook” to Sugarland after two months. Hopefully, that will put him on the big league roster in 2006.

    Now, let’s move Framber for some more pitching youth.

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  8. One rumor I’m not thrilled about is that the Astros might want Nolan Arenado. I’d hate to see an Abreu part two. Just a couple of stats: Exit velocity, 86.3, easily the lowest of his career. Hard hit rate, 31.7. It was 38.1 as recently as 2023. Those are scary numbers.

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  9. Time for a youth movement. Young players seem to be hungrier than the older more established ones I’m all for trading Valdez and we could throw in Pressley. Kill two birds with one stone.

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  10. I don’t hate the trade – I hate that the salaries have gone to the point the Astros had to trade Tucker or lose him. I think Brown did a good job here. Right now I don’t want to sign Bregman or acquire Arenado’s salary. I want to see where you can upgrade the club that doesn’t stick us with another $30M at a single position.

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    • The Cardinals might well need to pay a pretty good portion of Arenado’s salary in order to get the deal done. But despite his quality defense, there are real danger signs attached to his offensive stats, especially his advanced stats.

      To put things in perspective, Jose Abreu had a much better year offensively in 2022 before coming to the Astros than Arenado had in 2024.

      The Cards are trying very hard to move Arenado. They want to get younger even if they have to eat salary. This is a wrong way for the Astros to go.

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  12. I’m going to try and keep things simple.

    If Alex Bregman does not have other clubs knocking down the door for his services, I presume the Astros will be inclined to give him the deal originally offered. So that resolves 3rd base and 1st base, where Paredes will go.

    Now if Bregman gets what he wants elsewhere, then I would offer Christian Walker a three year deal to play first base with money that would not be going to Bregman. Easier said than done though, as the Yankees would have no problem outbidding the Astros. Why would I hire this 33 year old guy when I’ve been harping on getting younger and quicker and more athletic? For 33, he’s lightly used, having only played 5 full MLB seasons. He’s still got great range at first per Stat Cast. He’s a solid lefty bat and his numbers do not show decline other than the strikeout rate going up to 24%. The walk rate is good though. He’s supposed to be an excellent clubhouse guy. And why would he want to play on the Yankees? This option also resolves both corner infield positions with Paredes going to 3rd.

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  13. I’m going to try and keep things simple.

    If Alex Bregman does not have other clubs knocking down the door for his services, I presume the Astros will be inclined to give him the deal originally offered. So that resolves 3rd base and 1st base, where Paredes will go.

    Now if Bregman gets what he wants elsewhere, then I would offer Christian Walker a three year deal to play first base with money that would not be going to Bregman. Easier said than done though, as the Yankees would have no problem outbidding the Astros. Why would I hire this 33 year old guy when I’ve been harping on getting younger and quicker and more athletic? For 33, he’s lightly used, having only played 5 full MLB seasons. He’s still got great range at first per Stat Cast. He’s a solid lefty bat and his numbers do not show decline other than the strikeout rate going up to 24%. The walk rate is good though. He’s supposed to be an excellent clubhouse guy. And why would he want to play on the Yankees? This option also resolves both corner infield positions with Paredes going to 3rd.

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  15. Having watch several podcasts as of lately and reading my favorite blog (guess which one) I wanted to make a couple of comments. I feel like it’s too late to close the barn door since a lot of the cows have already left but here we go.

    Some of the bad decisions and events that have lead to our current dilemma (not in any particular order:

    The cheating scandal (AKA IT)

    Losing top draft choices due to IT

    Firing of Jeff Luhnow

    Using the the three amigos to basically run the front office

    Not extending the contract of James Click (firing him)

    Bad contracts (Jose Abreu, Rafael Montero, Christian Javier, LMJ, Josh Hader, Ryan Pressley (vested 14MM 2025), Verlander’s 1 game @ 25MM, Trading away too many prospects for short term gains (Kikuchi), Trading away Kyle Tucker (too soon in my estimation), the Bregman situation, decimating the farm system. I’m sure I missed a few.

    And I also forgot to mention the fact that the fans have no idea what is going on as our management can never seem to give us straight and honest answers. I think the fans are getting a little restless if you know what I mean.

    Only two months before pitchers and catchers report. I guess that’s a positive

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  16. Let’s see

    Steven – please don’t let one trade (which I kind of doubt is happening) drive you away. But if you stop being a fan – please stop by here any way – your commentary is always appreciated

    Daveb – What was the old Doublemint ad – double your pleasure – double your fun? Glad to have your thoughts even twice

    Z – hang in there – I am hoping that Dana Brown has a decent plan even if it may take a couple years to ripen – they should still be competitive until they get out from under some of this money wasted commitment

    Devin – agree with you on not hating the trade as much as the reason they are doing it

    Sarge – yeah they got decent return on Tucker – it is the next move (or non-move) that is now intriguing. Does Framber stay or does he go?

    Old pro – As a follow on – I know you want to get what you can for Framber right now – it is THE question – do they hold on to him and maybe get less at the trade deadline or do they ride him to the end – try and fail at re-signing him? Or trade him now? It will tell us a lot about what happens with them overall. Is trading Framber tied to re-signing Bregman or not?

    Larry Leach – Cam Smith is shown as their #1 prospect now on the mlb.com list. I did not know he was that big – 6′-3″ 224# at 21 years old – I wonder if he will end up in the outfield rather than the infield

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    • I listened to an interview of him on a podcast called Locked on Astros. Guy is a legit Houston Astros fan. Idolized Roy Oswalt as a kid. I’m sure Roy O is thrilled to hear that! We are all getting more years behind us than ahead of us.

      Happy when a hometown true fan gets to pitch for his childhood team. Don’t get any ideas though Mr. Brown.

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  18. The Astros, without Bregman, have an estimated 37M or so on the cap depending on arbitration cases. That is what sportrac says.

    Montero is hitting the cap for 11.5M. Abreu 19.5M. Even Greinke is still taking a bite at 12.5M. That’s three guys we presume will have zero games played, accounting for 43.5M of salary and cap space. It’s hard to compete when you put yourself that far behind.

    One could also assume the 17M to McCullers and 14M to Pressly is 31M that the results will not be in line with those salaries. But who knows, both will get a chance to prove us wrong at least.

    So, just this year, 74.5M of cap space, wasted, by guys that either will not play or will likely not perform.

    It is so hard to compete when you make decisions like that AND you don’t have the resources to just say to hell with the cap.

    That said, I think Dave has some good ideas. I’m not sure how I feel about another mid-30s 1B getting 3 years again, I haven’t really done the research on Walker to have an informed opinion though. I wouldn’t HATE that signing. Trading for Arenado though, hard pass for this fan.

    In 2023, player A had 42 extra base hits. In 2024, player B had 39. Player A was Jose Abreu. Player B is Nolan Arenado.

    WSWD – I would go with the Singleton/Diaz platoon at first, making sure Singleton gets less than 10 ABs all year against lefties. And I am signing Santan-deer (as I’m told it’s pronounced). And I’m trading Framber for another corner infielder of mid repute with 2-3 prospects. And I’m looking forward to 2025 when cap space looks better with Pressly, Montero, Abreu all off the cap along with Valdez. I expect Santander just had a career year, and it will be a slight overpay, but one more guy that I can write in and just play instead of spending all year mixing and matching the McCormicks and Meyers and Heywards of the world will lengthen the batting order.

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  19. The Astros, without Bregman, have an estimated 37M or so on the cap depending on arbitration cases. That is what sportrac says.

    Montero is hitting the cap for 11.5M. Abreu 19.5M. Even Greinke is still taking a bite at 12.5M. That’s three guys we presume will have zero games played, accounting for 43.5M of salary and cap space. It’s hard to compete when you put yourself that far behind.

    One could also assume the 17M to McCullers and 14M to Pressly is 31M that the results will not be in line with those salaries. But who knows, both will get a chance to prove us wrong at least.

    So, just this year, 74.5M of cap space, wasted, by guys that either will not play or will likely not perform.

    It is so hard to compete when you make decisions like that AND you don’t have the resources to just say to hell with the cap.

    That said, I think Dave has some good ideas. I’m not sure how I feel about another mid-30s 1B getting 3 years again, I haven’t really done the research on Walker to have an informed opinion though. I wouldn’t HATE that signing. Trading for Arenado though, hard pass for this fan.

    In 2023, player A had 42 extra base hits. In 2024, player B had 39. Player A was Jose Abreu. Player B is Nolan Arenado.

    WSWD – I would go with the Singleton/Diaz platoon at first, making sure Singleton gets less than 10 ABs all year against lefties. And I am signing Santan-deer (as I’m told it’s pronounced). And I’m trading Framber for another corner infielder of mid repute with 2-3 prospects. And I’m looking forward to 2025 when cap space looks better with Pressly, Montero, Abreu all off the cap along with Valdez. I expect Santander just had a career year, and it will be a slight overpay, but one more guy that I can write in and just play instead of spending all year mixing and matching the McCormicks and Meyers and Heywards of the world will lengthen the batting order.

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  20. Dan and guys and gals. My thoughts on Framber is that the closer he gets to free agency, the less the chance he resigns with us. The Yankees gave 8/218 to Fried today and there is no way Framber is going to pass up the chance for free agency with that kind of money out there. The Yanks also traded for Bellinger so they are loading up no matter what it costs because nobody else in the AL is loading up.

    My theory is that the Astros do their housecleaning this season when they are strapped by the luxury cap and by the bad contracts and try to squeak into the playoffs with a younger team while they build up their future for 2026 when a lot of their wasted money is off the books. Then they could fill their holes with their top prospects starting in 2026.

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  21. Good morning everyone! Tis’ just a week before Christmas! It’s sounding like the Yankees will be getting most of the shiny presents this week. Seems they are intent on spending all the Soto money they had saved up.

    So I might have to withdraw yesterday’s suggestions. Alex Bregman could well be a Yankee if the Mets or Red Sox don’t win his contract. Cody Bellinger went last night. And word from some of the more reliable sources is that Christian Walker has been offered 4 years at 100 million from the Yankees.

    So our man Dana Brown has a pretty tough job. And I’m putting on hold any further suggestions for the time being. I’m not big league ready!

    I do think Framber still goes. And Steven, I understand the Santander commitment, but gosh, that’s too much commitment for me. I think Zach Dezenzo could play a biggest role in 2025. Jon Singleton might live to see another day, or maybe year on an Astro roster.

    I hope something interesting happens before Santa gets here. Let’s get the Framber trade done with. That’ll give us something new to talk about.

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  22. Rather than grading the trade, why don’t we just look at what has happened with the Astros and the Cubs.

    The Astros have a new #1 prospect in Cam Smith, who is rated about even with Melton by MLB. It sort of gives the Astros 2 prospects in their system who could be considered #1. The Astros got a guy who could fill either the 1B or 3B spot this season, which is a need. The Astros got a pitcher who they are going to try as a starter and who could fit into Sugarland’s rotation with Gusto, Gordon and Blubaugh to start the season if they don’t make the team out of spring training. But, just as important, the Astros got down below the luxury tax line by eliminating Tucker’s salary for 2025. What they gave up was one year of an All Star right fielder.

    The Cubs got that guaranteed one year of an All Star right fielder, but they added his salary to an already pretty good outfield. An outfield that was obviously better than Houston’s was before the trade. Then they traded Bellinger to the Yankees and got Cody Poteet as the return and, in the irony of ironies, they actually sent more money to the Yankees, who already have more money than half of the AL teams combined.

    The result of the trade is that both teams got what they wanted, but neither team got what they needed to compete with the big boys in their league, but maybe helped them get started to win their divisions, if they continue to add better role players.

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