Sometimes around here, we look at a potential deal or investment by the Astros, and if it is costly, we say, “No big deal to us – that is Jim Crane’s money.”
But in reality, we are using the same wrong mindset applied to government spending. “Oh, the government will take their money and pay off college loans for 200,000 voters (sorry, former students).”
Of course, the government does not have its own money to give. At this point, it is using our money, or more correctly, writing an IOU that our grandkids will have to pay.
The difference may be that Jim Crane and his fellow owners have a ton of money they could invest in the club and players for centuries to come. But in reality, they run the baseball clubs as separate businesses from wherever they made their fortune, and the money that is used comes from fannies in the seats, fannies buying food, drink, and souvenirs, and most importantly, fannies paying for video and radio content through cable, satellite, on-line, and of course listening to the same advertisements a thousand times over a 162 game schedule.
So, when the Mets hand Juan Soto 15 years / $765 million, the thought is that they will be taking that money from their fan base in some way and that the money they bring in will keep rising like an infinitely supplied helium balloon.
Of course, the image of a balloon is used here on purpose. Like real estate, savings and loans, tech stocks, and other great crashes of the past, what goes up may have to come down, and when it does, it may not ease itself down to the ground.
I know this sounds like Old Guy – get off my lawn type of stuff. But how long can this spiral out of control like this? Are we talking $20 beers then $30-$40-$50 beers at the ball parks? If the country hits a bad spot along the way and a bunch of the populous is jobless – what part of their budget will disappear first? Food or Entertainment?
Jim Crane and his group bought the Astros for $630 million in 2011, about the equivalent of $890 million today. Now, we are seeing $765 million going to one player.
Keep in mind that in 1980, Nolan Ryan became the first $1 million per season player – the equivalent of less than $4 million in today’s money. But now the top players are getting $50 million yearly or more.
The question has to be – at what point does the bubble pop? It will – everything that is overpriced eventually hits that spot where it can not sustain itself. And do we really care? After all it is other people’s money. Right?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
44 responses to “Baseball 2025: The idea of other people’s money”
Baseball continues to be stupid and will be screwed when the TV money runs out. It’s flabbergasting how many bad decisions they make as a sport.
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But they are consistent…..
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First off, for my own selfish reasons, I hope the Astro organization does not cave in and pay Alex Bregman more than what they considered a quality offer.
Someone said the other day that we’re on our way to having 5-7 MLB clubs in large markets willing and able (for now anyway) to pay a baseball player 800 million dollars over the next 15 years. I think that’s very true. A few more teams, with healthy budgets of their own, but more realistic, will hang on because they are well run, like the Astros have been for most of the past decade. We are slipping though.
But too many other teams just won’t ever have the resources to compete. The Pirates. The Marlins. The Rays. There are several others. Do they fold at some point? Does MLB expand or shrink?
The NBA and NFL at least give smaller market teams a chance to compete. The commissioner of MLB, employed by his owners, seems delighted with today’s remarkable spending. But how many owners really are at this point? The MLB Players Association may well start losing membership. But not yet. Not when journeymen pitchers, not even mediocre ones, can get 29 million dollars over two years guaranteed. I can’t think of any other industry that rewards such mediocrity in such a remarkable fashion. Baseball could be in trouble soon. There will at least be turmoil within the ranks of owners, maybe even this week. And then there will be the inevitable battle with the players. It’s coming, again.
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It is tough to let player after player leave without compensation. But as you and others have said maybe it is time to trade a player or two before they walk away.
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Dan, I can’t think of another way the Astros might have a chance to sustain competitiveness.
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There is a Laffer Curve for beer prices. I wonder what it is…
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Good question
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Oh for the good old days when a day at the ball park could be had for about $10 per person and you could get a fresh loaf of Mrs. Baird’s bread for .25.
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Your comment reminded me. Many decades ago when we drove from Bellaire in toward Houston town, the aroma from the Mrs. Baird’s bakery would hit you when you got within 7-8 blocks of it. Wonderful!
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MLB Trade Rumors says Dana Brown would entertain offers for Tucker/Valdez. It’s becoming more and more that this could possibly happen. Tucker could probably get 400MM next year and Valdez 150MM+. No way I think Crane will spend that kind of money but we can’t wait till next year and lose them to FA and get nothing.
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Z, our conundrum I think, is that Crane is not willing to pay those big contracts (which I agree with), but at the same time is unwilling to let guys go via trade while they still have value.
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Accounting is a funny creature. Baseball teams have figured out what they can charge that has the maximum returns. Last time I went to a game was July of 2023 and for me, wife and 13 year old son it was one trip that cost us around 350 between tickets, parking, concessions and a few souvenirs.
Sometimes I wonder where that break point is. When does it become cost prohibitive for people to go to games? I won’t personally go to them, not because I can’t afford 350, heck I give verizon more than that every month, but its just not in me to pay that, especially for an experience that was so crowded and uncomfortable. The seats at MMP are terrible. I went to Atlanta in 2023 as well, not only was the parking more convenient, the crowd was smaller, and the seating was much more comfortable, and the whole trip was cheaper.
I would like baseball to go to a revenue sharing program like the NFL’s but you are never getting baseball the national TV contract. And the clubs that do get eyeballs are the ones that ESPN and Fox always put on TV, they have no interest in sharing revenue with the Royals or Marlins.
Baseball talked about 25 years ago keeping the haves from running away from the have nots. They have revenue sharing to a degree, they have taxes, they have tried things, and the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers don’t care. They just pay it. Would anyone have predicted 25 years ago that when they started putting these things in place the problem would get worse before it got better? Is there a world where it can get better, or is baseball just going to become the sport where the have nots exist just to give the haves someone to play?
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The last time I paid was when I took my son-in-law to his first(and last) Astros game. How long ago? We saw Houston get destroyed by Evan Longoria and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. We sat all the way down the LF line and I spent $200 for two of us, including a beer and a hot dog. It was a lot for me back then. Today, the cost is out of my reach.
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It was not that long ago I could get to the Astrodome more than an hour before the game and park for $1 by entering the Kirby entrance, get my outfield seat for $2, and just enjoy the game. The prices now are completely out of whack and it’s trickled down to the minor league teams. The account is really interesting though. Lots of contradictory information is out there, but the 2023 playoffs reportedly averaged about 2.8m viewers per game. Prior to the WS in 2024 the average was about 3.3m, but some outlets report roughly 30m viewers combined for the first WS games with over half of that coming from Japan. For the season, WNBA games in which Caitlin Clark appeared reportedly averaged 1.18m viewers and her playoff games drew as many as 3.4m viewers.
MLB is not going to increase viewership or attendance. The economy is not getting better for the people who are expected to buy the jerseys, beer, and stale popcorn.
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Off topic but it goes along with the money discussion. Went shopping for Christmas and for this months groceries yesterday, spending the money I saved by substituting venison for beef.
I filled up a couple of weeks ago and paid $2.69.9 for regular gas. I filled up yesterday in the same town and paid $2.35.9 for regular. It’s happening!
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Max Fried to the Yankees, 8 years, 218 million. How long will he stay healthy. He’s thrown 33 starts once in his career.
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As they were saying on the radio – Fried is a very good – less healthy version of Framber – it has to concern you what precedent this sets.
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On the flip side, maybe this makes the club more convinced they should pursue opportunities in exchange for Frsmber.
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Fried is 31 next month and has thrown regular season 884.1 and 67 postseason innings in his career. Framber is 31 and has thrown 888.2 regular season and 85 postseason innings in his career. The numbers are really similar if you dive into them. I think the only three options are move Framber this week, hold him in case the team is out of it at the deadline and move him then, or offer him a QO if he’s healthy next November.
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Lot’s of guys getting signed to minor league deals. I hope Jose Urquidy starts the season in Sugar Land.
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As long as he can pass a physical well enough he is a candidate for one of those 2 year league minimums contract – he can just sit on the 60 day IL all year. If he and the Astros do come to agreement on that I would assume it would be official after camp starts and the 60 day IL opens back up on February 14th.
I for one would hope the Astros would take a shot on it. Someone is likely to on that day.
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I’ve been keeping an eye on Urquidy via Instagram. He’s a gym rat, in great shape, but obviously I can’t tell you what his arm is doing. I wish Chas looked so solid.
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Joel Sherman is reporting the Astros and Yankees are in preliminary discussions about a Tucker trade and the players being mentioned are Dominguez, Gil and some minor league corner infielders. Ben Rice is another name mentioned. If the Astros aren’t talking about Caleb Durbin, they are missing the boat on that one. Did you know in his senior year of college, in 2021, he had 190 plate appearances and struck out 2 times. In 190 plate appearances. I thought it was a typo.
Durbin doesn’t have the profile of a 3B, nor the power profile you are used to seeing there, but that is a dude I could write 2nd in the batting order and let him go. I am not sure where he is defensively, the Yankees have had him mostly at 2B in the minors, but a lot of SS and some 3B as well so he probably has the arm.
I’ve got no idea where the Astros go with Tucker, but I do know the Yankees are scorned lovers right now, and looking for an answer to their crazy fanbase over Soto. If you can get all 4 of those it might be one of the better deals out there. Gil has the most service time and even he isn’t eligible for FA until 2029.
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I sure hope our prospect expert (Dana Brown) pays attention to those types of details like you do Steven. Man – 2 Ks in 190 at bats – you get the feeling with that kind of batting eye he struck out twice when the umps called a strike on a ball.
You have to get a couple at least a couple solid – soon to be MLB players out of any Tucker trade. But the Yanks? Yikes
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Ideally Brown creates a bidding “war” on Tucker if he is indeed going to trade him.
I’m adamant that you make the offer to Tucker, 10 YR, 300M extension first. Make it official stamped and faxed over to his agent for signature before you do anything else. When he says no, and I suspect he would, you trade him. He gives you no choice.
I’m thinking the Astros won’t get more from the Yankees than Dominguez, Gil and Rice. It gives you a middle of the rotation arm, a centerfielder maybe, and a first baseman that was terrible in his first look but a solid minor league track record. It doesn’t solve 3B. But with Tucker and Bregman off the payroll, maybe you solve 3B with Dezenzo or bring in a middle of the pack infielder for 6M or so to compete with Dezenzo for the job. IF they did this, I would next try and trade Meyers to anyone, and given the lack of centerfielders around baseball, there will be a taker, for a 19 year old pitcher from A ball with 4 years of growth to make. That would probably spell the end of any Verlander deal as well. All of a sudden, a Framber extension at least enters the conversation in the front office instead of either a trade or let him leave situation. No Bregman, no Tucker, no Verlander and young guys like Gil with years of control, the payroll situation looks like less dire.
But I’m betting you can get more from the Cubs or the Red Sox for Tucker. Start the war.
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24 year old Caleb Durbin. That’s an interesting one for me Steven. He makes contact. Not much power. He gets on base. Has that great eye. Pretty much steals a base when he wants it. He’s 5′ 6″ and a rock. A so so arm in the infield. Not even on the Yankees 30 top prospect list. Has an 83 something exit velocity. But has great bat speed. Apparently he’s got a love for the game that’s over the top. He reminds me a bit of another 5′ 6″ guy that showed up on the Astros back in 2011. You know, Jose did not really show any power until his 5th season, once he had turned 25.
Long shot that we get a deal done with the Yankees, but if Tucker should go that way, Caleb should be the last man in that deal.
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By the way, I keep looking around for Yoan Moncada information. He’s over in Puerto Rico, it seems playing part time in their winter league along side Abreu. He has not done much to date, but it seems he’s healthy. He’s already got 5 million 2025 dollars from the White Sox for letting him go. This is a guy that was highly regarded by everyone. And he’s still only 29. If he’s head case, I’d stay away. But I hope Yordan or the Astros have reached out and at least had a conversation with him. If he’s well and really wants to play, 3B in Houston could be a great high risk, high reward option. He might come for 6 or 8 million. Then we take Stevens guy Corbin to be our new Frenchie.
This is the kind of talk that gets me excited about what could be ahead for this club, the Astros making bold moves, getting out of their traditional comfort zone.
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All things being even, I believe the Astros would favor a Cubs deal for Tucker. But, in this day and age, the Yankees have shown they are going to buy big on everyone and the Astros are going to have to deal with NY’s huge payroll anyway. If the Yankees offer for Tucker is better, the Astros might as well improve their team as much as they can no matter who they trade with.
What happens with Tucker may determine what happens with Bregman and definitely the reverse is exactly the same. And what happens with Tucker and Bregman will determine what happens with Framber.
I think the trade path we are looking at is the way for the Astros to be a player without overreacting in their economic marketplace.
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If I’m trading Tucker to the Yankees, I want Gil, Spencer Jones and 1 more prospect. The Yankees will then make Tucker a huge extension offer to give him new home and his money.
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My investigating say the Astros gained no one and lost no one in the Rule 5 draft.
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But wait, there’s more! the Astros did pick up a Class AA RHP from the Giants in the minor league phase of the draft, Julio Rodriguez. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rodrig014jul
He is strictly a reliever, or at least so far in his career.
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Astros get: Jean Pinto Double A RHP from Orioles. Anderson Bido Double A RHP from Rockies. Jack Blomgren High A SS from Rockies. Nick Swiney Double A LHP from Giants. All of these minor leaguers are now in the Astros system with no strings attached and all cost Houston $12,000 apiece if I read it right.
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I think it is intriguing that the “all important winter meetings” have come and gone with the Astros doing nothing. And I mean literally “nothing”.
I’m satisfied with the team doing nothing, as long as they have a plan to do what needs to be done to keep this team relevant in the coming years in the minefield that MLB has laid in front of teams that try to do things right as opposed to the three teams who have the favor of MLB brass. Those three teams are the Yankees, the Mets and the Dodgers.
I think this is going to be a “Balloon” situation in the coming years. Manfred and his owners, his agent and his union have made their bed.
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Just a thought. With all this talk of a Tucker trade a few of the comments are that we can now afford to keep Alex Bregman. I know Tucker is in for a huge payday of maybe 400MM but then to keep Bregman at 156 to 200MM is not what I would call smart. I would suspect that he’ll continue to decline as time rolls on with us being stuck with a guy who could be injured or hitting around the Mendoza line. If we do sign him I hope that’s not the case but history is not on our side. Has anybody heard if there has been any interest in Valdez? All the talk is about Tucker.
I like the fact that we seemed to get some prospects in the minor league draft as noted by 1OP. It’s time to rebuild the farm system as we don’t have much of one as of lately. The trade that brought us Kucuchi cost us too much IMO but who knows if we get to the playoffs without that trade. It’s kind of a moot point since we got whacked in the 1st round by Detroit by a pitiful effort on our part.
I’m a believer that we can still win our division and make the playoffs with what we have but we also need to think about the next 5 years because a lot is going to change in Astro-land. I doubt if you compare a 2029 team roster with a 2025 roster it’ll look quite different save for a couple but that’s Baseball.
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I’m starting to think we might end up with Bregman by default. I think he’d have signed by now if some other club had come up with what his camp thinks he’s worth. Having Bregman back at third base would please most Astro fans, but then of course we’d get to see close up how much decline is coming over the next 6 years.
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It seems like every year Boras has a player or two who don’t get the deals they want and end up signing a 1 year deal somewhere and/or missing the start of the season. I wonder if the Astros offer to Bregman had a time limit on it. While many of us are thinking they have to move Tucker now given Soto has moved the goalposts for next offseason’s contract offers, but it also may be a case where the Astros are anticipating the need to find $30M+ in next year’s budget in case Bregman were to accept the offer. As I’ve said before, I don’t think the Astros playing well in the summer was because Tucker was out, but I firmly believe a healthy Alvarez and Diaz can carry the offense if the players around them do the bare minimum (mainly get on base). I don’t think that’s a championship squad though.
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You can win in the regular season with a suspect offense as long as you don’t get it over suspect. The Mariners were terrible. Their “star” had to have a late season surge to get him to .273, he had BB/K ratios that were terrible, he had a league average OBP and managed just 20 HR. Their cleanup hitter did smash 34, but he hit .220 and had a 176 strikeouts. Their offense stinks. And they still stayed on our coat tails all year. Certainly Alvarez, Diaz, and Altuve can carry a team to winning this division.
That said, you used the word championship. Where losing Bregman and Tucker and replacing them with Paredes and who knows in RF, is the ability to hit good pitching. Sans what Tucker has done in the playoffs in his short career, I think people would be more confident in a Kyle Tucker at bat in a critical spot than Chas McCormick. The path to a championship is being able to generate runs against the best pitching teams in baseball using their best pitchers when it matters, and because it matters those best pitchers letting loose and pitching their best. Lots of bests. And Singleton, Meyers, McCormick, and whatever Heyward-esque pickup they make, isn’t getting it done in that spot. Even misplaying people like Pena by asking them to be protection for a big bat is not what we would want in that spot.
Pitching can carry us to the playoffs even with no more additions. But they need help to win the big prize.
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/kyle-tucker-trade-rumors-cubs-astros-isaac-paredes-cam-smith.html. Trade rumors. I know the Astros need to get better returns for players who are going to walk. Round 4 supplemental picks are absolutely not acceptable.
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If its just Smith and Paredes, obviously Paredes can’t replace Tucker and we won’t see Smith for probably 2 years. It makes us clearly worse in 2025. The original rumor had Suzuki in it. In that case you are replacing Tucker and Bregman with Paredes and Suzuki, and you would again be worse in 2025 than 2024, but at least you have major league quality guys in those spots with controllable and lesser salaries that can give you opportunities to upgrade other spots.
I would be disappointed if it just ends up Paredes and Smith. The Yankees seem offish about including Gil, but I think if you wait them out and flirt long enough with Chicago, the Yankees will budge in the end.
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There’s a report that the Yankees are sending Caleb Durbin to MIL for Devin Williams. They’re including Nestor Cortez and cash in the deal. Seems like a terrible trade for NYY so I’m all in favor of it.
The Tucker rumors are a rollercoaster for me. If you aren’t getting players back who factor into the future of the franchise you may as well run him out there in 2025 with the motivation to put up an MVP season and then accept the comp pick in the 2026 draft. Getting back returns that hurt your club in 2025 makes no sense unless you’re convinced any prospects included will eventually be long term starters.
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Oh my
Cubs To Acquire Kyle Tucker – MLB Trade Rumors
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Deal. Done.
Now Framber.
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wow!
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It’s a damn shame to lose Tucker, another potential HOF’er, but he was going to go after 2025. Paredes can play first if we ultimately end up with Bregman. He’ll love hitting in Houston. And he’s got a pretty good eye. He’s one more slow guy though, but with a good glove. Smith is a first rounder that has so far hit everywhere. We have not had very many first round opportunities lately. If Brice Matthews keeps developing, we could have a much different look in 2026. And with Wesneski, do we have a guy that can be turned into 150 inning arm this year? I’m sure they’ll be tweaking him.
Meanwhile, Cubs fans are exuberant. They’ll enjoy watching Tucker for a year or maybe 10.
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