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The Astros’ ultimate what if?

From an Astros fan’s point of view, there is one “What If” that comes to mind when looking at the Astros’ past, present, and future. No, not “what if” the Astros had not signed Jose Abreu to his three-year contract when his body failed him, though that is a good one.

As a friend of the blog Old Pro touched on yesterday, the ultimate “what if” for Astro fans is what would have happened if “IT” had not happened. If the Astros had not committed the sign-stealing scandal and then had been caught/ratted out – what would the results have been, and what would their current state be? If Jeff Luhnow and A.J. Hinch had not been forced out, how would that have affected the formation and performance of the club? If they had not lost those high draft picks in 2020 and 2021, would their minor leagues have rated as low as the outside experts think it is? How would the baseball world look at this last decade of Astros’ baseball and how revered would the team be?

First, this could be the best demonstration of the Butterfly Effect in the history of sports. Luhnow could have hit on a bad streak of signing players that did not work out or got injured. We don’t really know how that would have dominoed through team makeup and team performance. So, this post will look at things in a more general way – asking and attempting to answer some questions along the way.

Would having A.J. Hinch on the bench have meant another World Series win beyond the 2022 championship between 2020 and 2024?

As much as I like and respect Hinch, folks here know that I don’t believe that the manager makes a huge difference over a 162-game season or even in the much shorter playoff season. Hinch was a bad manager with the Diamondbacks with bad players, a great manager with the Astros with great players and a below average manager with the Tigers up until this year when his players improved.

Heck, many folks blame Hinch for making the wrong late inning moves in Game 7 of the 2019 WS against the Nats and costing us that championship. That is likely unfair, but being a manager comes with too much blame when losing along with too much praise when winning.

Would Hinch have gotten more out of the Astros than Dusty Baker in 2020-2023 when Dusty led them to 4 ALCS, 2 WS and one championship? Could he have been the difference when the Astros lost all 4 home games in the ALCS to the Rangers in 2023? Well, he wasn’t the difference when the Astros did the same thing against the Nats in 2019.

Would Hinch have done a better job than Joe Espada in 2024? Perhaps, though Espada kept the team together through a very difficult start to the season and with more injuries than most teams would survive. Some say he totally outmanaged Espada in the AL Wildcard round. Well, his team played better than the Astros in a two-game series and then blew a 2-1 lead against the Guardindians in the ALDS. Was he the difference either time?

What would having Jeff Luhnow as the GM meant for the team in the 2020-24 seasons and how would the future look?

Now this is really where the meat of this post lies. Luhnow’s fingerprints are all over this team. Other than Jose Altuve (who was signed by the Astros before Luhnow arrived) and Yainer Diaz (who was traded for by James Click) most of the starting lineup (Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyer) were the result of moves and signings by Luhnow. Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Ronel Blanco, Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr., Bryan Abreu, and Ryan Pressly are all leftovers from the Luhnow era.

It is very impressive to have that much effect on a team five seasons after you were removed as GM.

If Luhnow had been here, there would likely have been even more youngsters banging on the door to take the place of those pricing out of the Astros’ budget. He likely would have done something useful with those picks we lost in 2020 and 2021. Luhnow was very business-like in knowing when to move on from players. And it is highly doubtful he would have saddled the team with the contract of Jose Abreu. He would have looked at Rafael Montero’s history and said no to a high number 3-year contract. He would not have given Michael Brantley a contract he physically was unable to show up for. And he would have used those resources to sign younger, better players.

The biggest difference with Luhnow in charge would have been his constant emphasis on sustainability. The team would have continued to find talent overseas, in cheap waiver pick-ups, in solid trades. He would have been filling in behind the players that he would have to send packing when their salaries overtook their value.

I believe that Dana Brown will do a good job for the team, but he would have inherited a much better team before the 2023 season under Jeff Luhnow.

What would the Astros’ legacy be if “IT” had not occurred?

As our other friend of the blog, Daveb stated “For one thing, Jose Altuve, one of the most decent men in baseball, would not be spending his career getting booed everywhere he goes on the road.”

The Astros would not have the 2017 Championship in question. They would not have had performances like Jose Altuve’s 2019 ALCS walk-off, which was doubted by the skeptics. Since it was revealed, they would not have to answer questions about it in every playoff series over the last five seasons.

And I think when/if someone like Jose Altuve is ready to enter the Hall of Fame, the morality patrol among the writers will punish him for at least one season.

If the Astros record was clean, I think they would be looked at like the 1990-2005 Braves. A consistently fine team that did not quite win as many WS as maybe they should have.

Anyway, these are just some rambling thoughts here. What do you think?

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39 responses to “The Astros’ ultimate what if?”

  1. Great writing my friend!

    I think, if Luhnow had remained the GM, then the club would still be in the postseason hunt every year, of course, but the club could still be winning 100+ games each year and the minors would probably be rated in the upper 20s. The payroll would probably be more manageable as well.

    But, on the other hand, even if he were still the GM, the unexpected injury bug can always occur and derail the season.

    I feel Hinch would have already moved on, being stagnant and wanting a challenge, or being lured away by a bigger payday.

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  2. Every time I hear Jose getting the Bronx Cheer, I want it to be Hinch. He’ll always be the guy that lacked the spine and let the cheating go on. As for Luhnow, I’d love meet him on a plane one day and ask him about his knowledge of the whole operation, while stuck sitting next to me.

    But who knows. By now he might have been long gone to a higher bidder or even the result of eventual conflict with Crane. But maybe he would have been a lifer with the Astros. And I think that possibility would have led to longterm stability within the organization.

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    • I will never understand this – there is a hierarchy with a team and the players are under the manager. If they were truly not listening to Hinch – he should have gone up the ladder for back-up from the GM/front office and if he did not get it he should have quit. But truthfully – he could have told his cheaters that if they did not stop they were sitting. Period.

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  3. I don’t think Luhnow drafted well outside the first round in most drafts. That’s largely opinion. I also don’t think our player development cast in the minors was any good over the last half decade. It’s possible a number of players would have turned out better if we had better coaching and it wasn’t scouting that was the problem. At the same time, there were guys from his earlier years like Brett Phillips who looked like a future star and was not. I think the Astros were the better team in 2019 and 2021, but didn’t show up when they needed to in the WS. I think they played over their heads in 2018 and 2020…but just like 2024 if there hadn’t been some key injuries they could have gone farther.

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    • If you look at most team’s drafts – they are lucky if they can get a couple good players out of any draft. In general the Astros did that or…..they had prospects attractive enough to bring back Verlander, Cole and Greinke.

      But I do believe that Luhnow was better at International signings than drafting.

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    • Devin, it’s a real crap shoot, but Luhnow was responsible for Hunter Brown who looks like a top of the rotation guy, and our shortstop who’s given us a 12.9 WAR over three seasons. Then there are Chas and Jake who have frustrated us at times, but have played a bunch of ML baseball.

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  4. bluecrowsports.com

    It’s fascinating what Luhnow is up to. He’s taken the MLB minor league concept and is developing talent from the ground up world wide.

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  5. bluecrowsports.com

    It’s fascinating what Luhnow is up to. He’s taken the MLB minor league concept and is developing talent from the ground up world wide.

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  6. Some thoughts:

    I was wrong about Luhnow from the beginning, so I will credit his team-building for the decade.

    I think the loss of Luhnow was a lot bigger than the loss of Hinch.

    Hinch was the guy who could have stopped the bullshit and he didn’t. His explanation of Beltran’s power over him is probably what pissed me off most of all.

    2020 was the disaster caused by the scandal. But is was more than just that. The 2020 draft had the O’s drafting their current young third baseman, Westburg, at #30. We could have drafted him. We lost our 4 top picks over two drafts and we are paying dearly for that now with holes to fill and nobody to fill them.

    Not having Luhnow to draft for the last 5 years is telling and not having him handling the international signings is even worse, because we are not able to sign top international free agents. Now we just are lucky to sign guys ranked from 20-50th or higher. Then we signed Leon, a young outfielder and paid him a fortune and put him at SS and 2nd base. Now he is on the 40-man and hasn’t yet learned how to play like a MLB outfielder.

    The GM situation since Luhnow’s firing has been a circus, with nobody having a clue who was running the show for five years. Luhnow knew how to build a winner without exceeding the luxury tax limit, like the Astros are paying dearly for that recently with penalties.

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    • Fair or not, I’ll always hold Hinch accountable more than anyone else. He could have saved a whole lot of people a whole lot of trouble. Even today. He could have been the adult in the room and simply done his job.

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      • Sometimes, my college degree helps me understand moves. Daikin has invested a huge amount of money in the Southwest with their complex in Waller. They are building their brand with this move. I never knew of them until this morning.

        Minute Maid still will be a major advertiser, but I think Daikin’s offer was so good that the Astros made a three team trade that sent Daikin to the top, gave Minute Maid a chance to gracefully lower their commitments that were made years ago and the Astros got a big paycheck as their part of the trade.

        The Astros have their major sponsor for the next 15 years instead of just the next five.

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    • I’m only going to respond once. Adames has never played any 3B at the MLB level – he last played 3B 11 years ago in the minors and had 2 errors in 10 ball games. Hitting-wise he seems to have similar power production to Bregman, but K’s about twice as often while walking less (over his career). In 2022 he hit .238 and in 2023 he hit .217, but had a better 2024 – .251 (in his contract year)

      Adames is about a year and a half younger than Bregman so that is in his favor.

      I am not feeling it – but maybe somebody else can convince me.

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      • And it seems Adames is in the same price range as Bregman is. If the Astros have that kind of money available, then get a deal done with Bregman. But I still think Bregman has begun his decline. As for Adames, I have not watched the guy enough. But when a guy decides to steal 21 bases when his career high was 8, and play 161 games all of a sudden, I wonder if he’ll put in that effort once the big contract is signed.

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  11. Great write up Dan.

    I would agree with the masses that the loss of Luhnow seems to be the biggest. It not only gave us a GM that lacked the total control in Click, it opened the door for a “committee” of former ballplayers, who never take into account that players age. Ballplayers think they can play ball forever. I’m 51, and I still think if I got warmed up I could hit 85, but really I would be lucky to hit 70. They believe in ball players, they think if a ballplayer has done it once, he can do it again, or will do it again. That’s why so many have to be shown the door and don’t leave.

    Brad Pitt said in Moneyball, I’m not paying you to be the player you used to be, I’m paying you for the player you are right now.” That’s why I don’t want to see Alex Bregman get a 7 year deal. By year 4 we will be paying him for the ballplayer he used to be. Let someone else do that.

    I saw where Pulillo said yesterday that he is hearing whispers that they have become more animated about Bregman because it looks like there is zero chance they will be able to meet Tucker’s asking price, and with so many guys off the books for 2026 they are open to a Bregman contract. But he made a good point, at some point in the near future, if you brought all these guys back, that Framber, Bregman, Altuve, even Alvarez and his injury concerns, this team starts to look old really fast. And right now, this is the time to make those dramatic moves that prevent you from getting to that point. Hunter Brown and Yainer Diaz can’t carry the future of the Houston Astros by themselves.

    Stating that they are more open to Bregman now because of Tucker just smacks me in the head though. It shows the planning isn’t as thorough as you would like if they are going to pivot this fast. You don’t always know what young player will carry the day, I remember the day of a young Lance Berkman and a young Darryl Ward on the same team, and most people assumed Ward would become the star. But if you put enough of them in a room together to compete, someone will step up. The Astros are not keeping the mix of young and old where it needs to be, and I don’t know having the 28th draft pick in 2021 fixes it. It seems to be a franchise issue. That, and pitcher injuries.

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      • Its a fair question. The Rays have been able to say good bye to guys before they became what age always makes them become, guys like David Price. Imagine they had backed up the brinks truck and given Price a 10 year deal, with deferred money, they would still be paying him today and he had what, 2 or 3 good years after leaving Tampa? He was great for 3 years after he left, OK for 3 more, and then would have been an abysmal contract the rest of the way. Instead Tampa traded him and got a young SS named Willy Adames that has turned out pretty good (not as much for Tampa – but he did give them 7.5 WAR going out the door to Milwaukee). They then moved Adames for two 2 relievers, one in which has been a stalwart of their bullpen.

        This is what creative franchises do. They spin what looks like a speeding locomotive coming at you as one ultra expensive player into multiple players that combined for over a 10 WAR over a 4 year period and were cheap while you had them.

        Can the Astros find this creativity going forward? Is Framber Valdez the speeding locomotive coming down the tracks? Is Kyle Tucker that locomotive? Can you spin them into cheap, positive WAR for a 5-6 year stretch or do you get stuck paying them 30M a year even when they are no longer earning that salary?

        The Astros are not the Rays. They have the resources to keep 2 or 3 of those expensive guys. But that dice seems cast behind Altuve and Alvarez, and could be behind Tucker. And they can add some mid-tier, and they have given those out to for Javier and McCullers, and they have to work out. No spoiler alert on that one to say they haven’t. They are also not the Yankees or Dodgers, and they cannot afford to go beyond that.

        As for Brown, he is on the clock. Purpura inherited a similar spot, and did not handle it well, and we ended up with the great reset after a more experienced Ed Wade couldn’t fix Purpura’s poor decisions (and made a few of his own).

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    • Clearly not everyone agrees with me, but I don’t want to hear Brown say their primary efforts are extending Tucker or signing Bregman if it’s not realistic or true. If Bregman’s team really is looking for a contract in the realm of Machado’s they are delusional. That contract is a poison pill. It doesn’t look terrible as he is getting $17M at age 32 in 2025, but goes up to $25M in 2026, and then sits at $39M annually from 2027 until 2033 which are his ages 34-40 seasons. Signing Adames looks like a dumb move as well. I love that you brought up Beane because we need to think about where the club can get improvements without mortgaging the future. If Tucker decides he wants to be in Houston then make him a competitive offer. If the sides aren’t anywhere close then start looking into whether a trade partner is willing to part with enough to balance out the anger that would come from the fans.

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      • Agree Devin, it seems to become a habit of this team to say this or that, and then we see the opposite happen. We were told when Brown was hired that he would not let Alex Bregman walk without an offer and that extending Tucker is a priority. Tucker even stated why leave when you play in front of sold out, indoor, air conditioned stadiums every night. But here we are. I simply don’t trust Brown’s statements anymore.

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    • Steven, good points as always. I think this team is already looking old. So no, I would not pay Bregman, I’d let Singleton go, I’d try to move Pressly, I’d have Yordan in left as little as possible. And if someone made a serious offer for Framber or even Tucker, I’d listen. This club really needs to get younger now. We’ll again be playing in a division that will give us a chance to scratch out first place in 2025, even with a much different looking roster.

      All that said, I don’t think there will be a whole lot of creative thinking going on over the next couple of months.

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      • We can agree on all those moves.

        Independently, they haven’t shown the fortitude to trade stars before pending free agency. So while I would recommend it especially for Framber that at his age and usage would appear to be that train coming down the tracks – they seem content to squeeze every bit out of the lemon before they let it go. Releasing Singleton – while probably not a move any of us would remember in 3 years – leaves you without a first baseman, so while you and I would do it, I don’t see Brown doing it. And moving Pressly, unless we eat some salary, seems unlikely in the offseason. Might be better to wait on an early season injury announcement like a contender losing their closer and try to move him then.

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      • We can agree on all those moves.

        Independently, they haven’t shown the fortitude to trade stars before pending free agency. So while I would recommend it especially for Framber that at his age and usage would appear to be that train coming down the tracks – they seem content to squeeze every bit out of the lemon before they let it go. Releasing Singleton – while probably not a move any of us would remember in 3 years – leaves you without a first baseman, so while you and I would do it, I don’t see Brown doing it. And moving Pressly, unless we eat some salary, seems unlikely in the offseason. Might be better to wait on an early season injury announcement like a contender losing their closer and try to move him then.

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  13. I get a kick out of some of these posts. Abreu showing signs of a career renaissance? But the Astros should steer clear of him?

    I sure hope Dana Brown is reading Climbing Tales Hill. These guys are full of sage advice.

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  14. I’m still for trading Framber for prospects. Otherwise we’ll lose him too in FA since he is not worth 5/125 IMO. I can’t see offering Bregman any more than 5 years with an option. I think it’s pretty “stupid” to think players are not going to decline once they hit their mid thirties. Yes there are exceptions but I think they are few and far between. I’ve already said that Pressley should be traded at 1st opportunity if the deal is right. If we can lock up Tucker for a “reasonable amount” that would be great but I wouldn’t count on it.

    Take a look at those two big franchise players that we lost; Correa and Springer. Would they have been worth the money paid to them, Correra 6/200 and Springer 6/150. I just think that we’d be better trying to add via FA and the draft in the upcoming years. More money available after 2025 so I think we can still be competitive without a total retooling but no need to break the bank to do so. Just my thoughts.

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  15. It’s interesting to me that this little group pretty much collectively seems to think that paying Bregman what he would require to stay is more than we think is wise both in dollars and years.

    Additionally, most of us seem at least willing to consider trading Framber and or Tucker.

    Looking around beyond Chipalatta, it seems most Astro fans really don’t want to lose Bregman under most any circumstance. Same goes for Tucker. Framber is a bit more of a toss up.

    My take, and do correct me, is that those of us mostly older Astro fans are more willing to battle with less proven talent for the next couple of years in order to strengthen our club long term.

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    • 1oldpro, I’d like to see him turn into a reliable 3-4 starter within two years. Can you help with that? He’s pitched in a terrible work environment. His stats are pretty good considering all that thin air out west.

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