The first few weeks after the end of a baseball season are highlighted more by procedural items (more discussion below) that send players away than actions that add players to your favorite team. On a quiet November afternoon, here are a few thoughts below:
- I hope Dana Brown is getting paid a goodly amount of money. This is a critical off-season, and it is all focused around the plan the front office is executing.
- The early off-season is driven by “set in the dirt” dates for handling players.
- The World Series ends – your free agents are set free (8 of them in the Astros case)
- WS + 5 days and your chance to be the only ones negotiating with those free agents comes to an end (no one was re-signed during this phase)
- At WS +5 the team decides who, if any, of their FAs deserves a Qualifying Offer of $21.05 Million (The Astros offered a Q.O. to the only player deserving it – Alex Bregman)
- The team must then scramble to lock in their 40-man roster by November 14 in front of the Rule 5 draft. They need to account for players who had previously not counted against the 40-man roster because they are on the 60-day IL. This included J.P. France, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., and John Phillip Sousa. Wait a minute—that last one was Bennett Sousa.
- While they moved some players to the 40-man – they released a number of players at the same time – Seth Martinez, Penn Murfee, and Trey Cabbage were picked up by other teams off waivers. Jose Urquidy and Oliver Ortega passed through waivers and were assigned to the Space Cowboys. They sent some cash to the money poor Yankees (LOL) for OF Taylor Trammell.
- The current 40-man roster has 38 players. That is a little tight for a team that may be adding more players in free agency, so some more folks may get their walking papers (or be traded for non-40-man roster players) in the next few weeks.
- The Astros say their number one priority is re-signing 3B Alex Bregman. But does that priority run aground on the “creative” payroll that GM Dana Brown has been touting. It feels so much like the Carlos Correa and George Springer situations where the team would love to have the guy back, but with limitations, especially on the number of years involved.
- I rock back and forth on bringing Justin Verlander back in 2025. He was crucial in both of their Championship runs in 2017 and 2022. “Was” is the operative word. He was not good in 2024. Was that because he was returning too quickly from an injury it took him a long time to come back from? Or was it because Father Time, who is undefeated, has decided it is time for him to hang up the glove? Maybe he can come back really cheap with an incentive-laden contract??
- There was an article talking about the Astros interest in trying to trade Ryan Pressly and his $14 million salary. However, he has a no-trade contract. But…would he be open to it if he might go somewhere he could close. Right now, I would be telling him he is not closing and he is not working the eighth inning.
- Is Yusei Kikuchi gone for sure? Who knows, but if you brought him back, that rotation would be pretty darn strong (again). Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Kikuchi, Arrighetti, and possibly Verlander, Luis Garcia, and Lance McCullers Jr. are in the mix. If Bregman says bye-bye, would you shift that money to Kikuchi and Verlander? Or into extending Kyle Tucker or Framber?
- I hope Dana Brown is getting paid a goodly amount of money. This is a critical off-season, and it is all focused on the plan the front office is executing.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
11 responses to “Astros 2024 – Early Off-season Thoughts”
“I hope Dana Brown is getting paid a goodly amount of money. This is a critical off-season, and it is all focused on the plan the front office is executing.”
Indeed!
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if we resign Bregman then probably no on Kikuchi. That puts in a tight money situation as we’ll have Bregman, Framber, Altuve, Tucker, Hader, Alvarez, along with JAbreu and Montero’s contracts. That a lot of $ that we’re already committed too. Just doesn’t leave us much wiggle room. Oh forgot about Pressly’s 14mm guarantee. Don’t think I’d envy DB’s position to keep a winning. Team around.
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I am so bleeping tired of trying and failing to communicate with you guys.
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That took three tries.
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Creative is certainly one word that comes into play for the Astros to bring Bregman back. Dana Brown has to make a token effort that paints Bregman as the guy who went elsewhere for more money if they can’t/don’t sign him. I’m fearful the actual word will be Painful to resign him though.
How could Brown free up the money to get under the threshold? He could trade Tucker and his $20M for prospects. He could trade Framber and his (likely) $18M for prospects. He could probably find someone who wanted Pressly, but he might have to send some money in that deal so I’ll assume we won’t take that $14M off the books. Can you trade Greinke’s salary in exchange for international bonus money? That would be creative, but also given our farm system potentially painful. I doubt Bregman would agree to a creatively deferred deal like Ohtani. What if Crane/Brown offered to purchase $30M worth of Bregman’s salsa every year if he signed a below market contract?
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There should not be any “blame” assigned to Bregman should he decide to accept a contract from another organization. Players accept new deals, clubs decide to move on from players. It is the business of baseball.
If he goes, it will not be the end of the world.
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Dave, to clarify my position, we can’t have Brown come out and tell everyone that Bregman is the Astros priority and then see them offer him a short, below market contract. If he does so then clearly they were lying. In a hypothetical, if the Yankees came out and offered Bregman a deal higher than Houston was willing to go and Brown acknowledged they couldn’t make their numbers work to reach it, we shouldn’t hold it against Bregman taking the better offer. I think the more likely scenario is that Bregman/Boras do not want to sign early and allow for some other players to come off the board first. Houston is not in a position to wait until January and will start allocating budget. By the point in time Bregman is ready to sign they may not have the option to bring him back.
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I don’t think it’s about lying. Correa and Springer were both priorities and were offered what the Astros thought was their value. And I think the Astros got it correct on both accounts. There will always be other organizations willing to pay more.
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When it comes to Bregman I would treat it like Correa. Make your offer. When they don’t take it, move on. I don’t think Boras is looking to have Bregman sign until after Soto, as he probably ranks them as fish 1 and fish 2, and the best way to drive up the value of fish 2 is have him become fish 1.
Other options the Astros could explore – Gleyber Torres is probably a 4/30M contract, with 2000+ innings at SS he could probably handle 3B, and at 27 you would get his prime years. He also comes with positional flexibility if Zach Dezenzo wins the job. Outfield options seem expensive, so another year of McCormick/Meyers/Dubon/Tucker seems likely. Another lefty bat to add to that mix would be good, but hopefully someone more impactful than Gamel or Heyward. To be honest, a Heyward reunion almost feels necessary as there is no real plan for LF right now, and between him and McCormick thats 8-9M in salary when neither seem like the answer.
The Astros are projected to be around 215M coming out of arbitrations, and with a 241M CBT you have to feel like you can add one mid-range guy like Torres, sign Verlander (I’m not advocating for it, I just expect it), and maybe lure in one more guy you can use in later innings (maybe a prove it year for a 1 year deal for Graveman?). In that state, its likely the Astros are serious about Bregman, because after 1 year well about the CBT they can avoid it right after when Framber, Tucker, and the expected Verlander deals come off the table, as well as the expiration of Abreu, Montero contracts. I think that would be trying to fry the wrong fish, all priority should be, even today, on Tucker’s contract, but that’s just my feeling.
Right now – that lineup, doesn’t scare you. Altuve-Alvarez-Tucker-Diaz-Motley Crew. Pena is a big, strong kid, he could become a legitimate power hitter, but needs to improve his approach. Dezenzo is unproven, and even if the Astros signed Torres, its not like Gleyber should be batting 5th. We have gone on ad nauseam about Singleton’s holes, and while, yes, he is leagues better than Abreu, you don’t like him anywhere higher than 7th. I hate his baserunning, defense, limitations against lefties, but he is one of the few guys in the lineup left that will work a count and force pitches out of opposing pitcher. McCormick has offensive potential, but he has to get out of his own head and probably get in slightly better shape. As soon as I say it the guy ends up an MVP candidate next year, but I would move on from Meyers by 2026. Maybe can’t separate yourself from in 2025 because of the lack of options, but soon they should. It will probably be another season where the offense causes them some losing streaks because they score 9 runs in 5 days.
As with most franchises, it comes down to pitching, particularly pitcher health.
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Steven, I know you’re not big on WAR, but just a couple of comparisons.
Correa has put up a 10.4 in three seasons since leaving, Pena a 12.9.
Springer has added a 9.6 since joining the Jays four years ago. I could use Tucker as a comparison, but it’s not close. But had Chas not totally disappeared in 2024, a middling 2.3 WAR last season would have put him even with George over the past four years.
Signing Bregman for 5, 6 or more years in no way automatically makes the Astros a better team over the next half decade or more.
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If it can be determined that Yoan Moncada is healthy, I’d have had Yordan on the phone to his countryman by now. Houston would be a great place for him to re-establish himself for a year at what could/should be a very manageable cost.
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