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Astros’ off-season: The timeline

In many ways, the Houston Astros off-season began for their fans three weeks ago on the afternoon of October 2 as the team bowed to the Detroit Tigers 5-2 in a 2-0 sweep of the Wild Card. And even though the Astros’ front office is no doubt working their donkeys off right now, the off-season officially begins when the World Series between the LA Dodgers of Los Angeles (a little Angels humor there) and the New York Yankees of the Bronx ends.

Baseball being the timeless oddity that it is, we don’t yet know when the season will end or where it will end, for that matter. The World Series begins this Friday in LA, but it can end after Game 4, Oct. 29 in NY, or after Game 5, Oct. 30 in NY, or after Game 6, Nov. 1 in LA, or finally after Game 7 in LA. So there you have it….the off-season begins….soon.

So, what does the timeline for the off-season look like?

  • Somewhere between next Tuesday and a week from Saturday, the World Series concludes, and all of the players eligible become Free Agents. For the Astros, that list includes – Alex Bregman, Justin Verlander, Yusei Kikuchi, Hector Neris, Kendall Graveman, Ben Gamel, Jason Heyward and Caleb Ferguson.
  • For five days those eight free agents are restricted from talking to any team other than the Astros. You would think that someone like Bregman, who has gone this long waiting to be an FA is at least going to wait five days to find out what kinds of offers exist beyond the Astros. But sometimes this is when people like Verlander might come to an agreement on a contract quickly, so they are settled for the next season.
  • By the end of the five days, teams will have to decide which, if any, of their free agents are given a Qualifying Offer. The qualifying offer this year is $21.05 million. If a player takes the Q.O. they receive a 1-year contract for that amount and forgo free agency. Astros outfielder Colby Rasmus was one of the very few players to ever do this heading into the 2016 season. A Q.O. turned down by the player would allow the team losing the player to get a compensation pick for next year’s draft. You would only offer this to a player you thought was worth that price if they accepted it. Alex Bregman will certainly be offered a Q.O. while Yusei Kikuchi (who made $10 million in 2024) will not likely get it, even with his great couple months with the Astros.  
  • The general Manager Meetings, not to be confused with the Winter Meetings in December, will be held in early November. This is a good meeting to establish groundwork for off-season trades.
  • The All MLB Weekend will occur Nov. 13-17 and will include the announcement of multiple awards including the Rookies and Managers of the Year, and Cy Young winners and the All-MLB first and second teams.
  • November 14 – the teams will need to lock-in their rosters for the upcoming Rule 5 draft. The Rule 5 is a draft that allows teams to give an opportunity to players who have spent a certain time in an organization (depending on their age when originally drafted) to get a spot on an MLB roster for a season. This is when teams will make room on their 40-man and promote players they are afraid of losing for a minimal payment ($100K).
  • Also, on November 14 – free agents will decide whether they will be accepting a qualifying offer or turning them down. They almost universally turn down the Q.O..
  • November 17 – teams will tender offers to the arbitration eligible players they have not settled with ahead of time. The Astros have 10 arb eligible players – Bryan Abreu, Luis Garcia, Penn Murfee, Framber Valdez, Jeremy Pena, Kyle Tucker, Jose Urquidy, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers and Mauricio Dubon. In various places – Urquidy, McCormick, Meyers, Murfee and even Dubon have been shown as candidates for non-tender. You would think it would be McCormick or Meyers being non-tendered not both and maybe neither. If they non-tender Dubon, who is their Swiss Army Knife?
  • The Winter Meetings are Dec. 9-12, which is often the scene of both some free agent signings, but especially trades. The draft lottery will be on Dec. 11 and the Rule 5 draft will be Dec. 12.
  • The Hall of Fame announcements should be made towards the end of January. Former Astro Billy Wagner was five votes short last time; this is his final time to make it before being moved on to the Seniors committee for consideration.
  • Mid-January there is a deadline for agreement on salary for the arb-eligible players. Those who do not come to an agreement will go to arbitration hearings in late January/ early February, though the teams and players can come to agreement anytime before their assigned arbitration dates.
  • The International signing period opens on Jan. 15. Many valuable players have come to the Astros this way including Jose Altuve, Cristian Javier, Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, and Luis Garcia. They also picked up international signee Yordan Alvarez in a trade for reliever Josh Fields before he ever played for the Dodgers.
  • The reporting dates for Spring Training have not been announced but will happen sometime around the second week of February. The Astros have announced they will start Spring Training games on Feb. 22 with two split squad games, the Nationals at their shared training facility in West Palm Beach and the Mets at their facility in Port St. Lucie.
  • The Astros opening day will be at home against their expansion partners the Mets, who came into the majors with Houston in 1962. This is the first time in 63 seasons they have played each other to start the season and the first time the Astros have begun the year with an inter-league series.

We will go into more detail on these areas of the off-season as we roll along. But in the longest Astro off-season since 2016, it is good to break it down into chewable bites.

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31 responses to “Astros’ off-season: The timeline”

  1. Thoughts

    • I guess this particular post is not drawing too much comments / interest.
    • I was reading about the Astros new coaching hire – Tony Perezchica. Supposedly he did a great job working with the infielders in Arizona on their fielding. Considering the Astros potential situation at 1st and 3rd bases with Dezenzo and Whitcomb in the mix, this sounds like a good, pointed hire. I don’t know if he can get Altuve to cover more ground.
    • A lot of discussion among the Astro fans on whether they hate the Yankees more with Brian Cashman bringing up “IT” or hate the Dodgers more with Kershaw bringing up “IT”. The Yankees seemed to be winning in the hate department, though they had quite a head start. I can’t pull for either team – so I may not watch much.
    • Saw where Fernando Valenzuela passed away. One of those guys we hated back in the day because he killed us in critical games. A great pitcher and as my son pointed out one of the first out of Mexico leading to a pitcher like Jose Urquidy.
    • The off-season already feels interminable. We’ve been spoiled with so many deep runs into the post season.

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    • Dan, I have been thinking about what I am going to say since you posted this. I will probably comment this evening, as I must first accompany my grandkids to the vet to decide what to do about our 12 year old Lab who was terribly wounded in a fight the other night. Commenting about my ‘Stros might be a good distraction for me tonight.

      Thank you for keeping this blog interesting and informative. I will add this article from MLBTR to ponder, as it helps us understand what we will be facing in the 2025 season: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/rangers-rumors-reduce-payroll-luxury-tax-2025.html

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      • Sorry to hear about your dog OP. Pray it works out for the best.

        I appreciate your kind words – I’ve had a little more time lately to write – but I may get a bit busier here soon. You know I do this for your enjoyment, because your comments are what keep me going.

        That is interesting about the Rangers – we have not heard the same from Crane, but I guess we will see what he has passed along to Dana Brown.

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  2. Last week when I should have been going to sleep one of the ESPN channels aired the 30 for 30 on Daryl Strawberry and Dwight Gooden following the late college football game. I’d never seen it before. It’s amazing the impact those two players had on the Mets team. It’s really unfortunate for the sport and the two men that they had their off field problems as we all lost out. One detail I recall was that Gooden’s first career start and win was in 1984 against the Astros. They portrayed it as opening the season so I thought your opening day bullet above was wrong, but sure enough, Houston played three against Montreal before hosting the Mets in 1984.

    Valenzuela was amazing in his 20’s. Those years overlapped my formative years in baseball fandom and I always stayed up late (see a theme?) when the Astros played against him out West.

    I think back to the Chipalatta mantra from a decade ago of just finding a couple more pieces each year. It’s rare to have a superstar like Gooden, Strawberry, or Valenzuela come onto the scene. I don’t think any of the recently drafted players have a chance at that. Those winter meetings in Dec look awfully important for Brown.

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    • Devin –

      I remember when it looked like the Rockets were going to be perennial contenders with Olajuwon, Sampson and company. But drugs tore that team apart in the 80’s. John Lucas got banned for drug use (I’m assuming cocaine) and they went to the finals without him and then Mitchell Wiggins and Lewis Lloyd were banned a year later – I think they were banned for life for not going voluntarily to rehab – eventually returned but were not the same players.

      Strawberry and Gooden were generational players and Valenzuela in his way was also.

      Do we have anyone like that around? Well, two of the last great players added to this team were by very clever trades before they became what they are – Yordan Alvarez and Yainer Diaz. Like you say – hopefully Dana Brown brings us some important pieces this off-season.

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  3. Dan, continued excellent effort. My posts are one liners for now. Hard to make most of my thoughts clear without a paragraph or three.

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    • Dave – I know you have my email – if you want something longer posted – you could send it to me that way and I would gladly post it – it will be under my name – but I would put it up as from daveb (note I will be away off and on this weekend on family “stuff”).

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      • Thanks Dan,

        Have an excellent family weekend. Honestly, we’ve all had issues with the platform, and you too.

        I have no problem posting comments or responding to others at any other forum, blog, secure medical website except for Chipalatta.

        Any consideration of changing the platform?

        Stay well!

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      • I have thought about it – one possibility is the fanblog that is under the crawfishboxes – it is the same platform more or less that I used when I wrote a fanblog at Battleredblog.com that seemed to work fine.

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  4. The article on the Rangers’ plans for next year indicates a cut back from their 2024 payroll.

    The A’s currently have zero dollars in guaranteed payroll for 2025.

    The last place Angels are struggling to find a way to not lose with a big payroll.

    The Mariners say they have solved their TV problem and will spend more. But, what they do spend for 2025 might just be what they didn’t spend for 2024 and they have a big bunch of arbitration players they will either pay or lose.

    The Astros window may still be open for 2025 because of a weak division, but they must get under the luxury tax line in 2025 or they will never get decent draft picks and money for international signings.

    How they do it will come next.

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  5. I was watching the Sports Map HOU this morning and they had a lot to say about the current state of the Astros. It’s always entertaining and informative but your blog and commentary are still in 1st place with me.

    Back to the Astros. It appears that we are now and will continue to suffer another 2 years with bad deals, bad contracts, bad farm system, and bad management. The organization has backed itself into a corner and seems to be unable to get itself out. I’m thinking the 5/125 for Altuve was too much but he will get to finish his career as an Astro. I’m afraid we’ll make a “bad deal” to keep Bregman, and then there’s the Kyle Tucker/Framber Valdez dilemmas coming up next year.

    We’ve already made mistakes by signing Hader for 5/95, Pressley for another year @14, Montero’s fiasco, LMJ’s boondoggle, Javier’s 62MM for the next 3 years (10.4, 21.4, 21.4). While I realize that some of these deals were done in seasons past the bottom line is we’re laying out a ton of cash for all of this. Crane’s philosophy of winning is morphing into “let’s throw good money after bad”. My point is by signing Tucker, Valdez, Bregman, finding a 1st baseman and an outfielder will we get a good return (World Series) or experiencing a Law of diminishing returns). There are no powerhouses in the AL West so we can almost be expected to win the division but no Wild Cards as noted this year.

    We’ve been spoiled by the last 10 years so maybe we shouldn’t set our expectations so high. Yes, we want to win it all but sometimes it’s good to take a step back and regroup for another long run.

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  6. I have a few ideas for more posts in the off-season, but if there is anything y’all would specifically like to see – let me know.

    Yes this feels like a cross-roads for this version of the team. Will they attempt to continue to limp along with an over-priced team. Will they go to some hybrid where they attempt to jettison some contracts? It does not feel like they will go to rebuild mode.

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    1. The Astros have a replacement in waiting for Framber at the top of their rotation in Hunter Brown. He gave proof of this in his playoff start. He has four more years of club control and would be a good candidate for an extension in a couple of years and is five years younger than Framber. Trade Framber for a position player of need to add to the lineup for years to come. This position player needs to have years of control and get a couple of lesser prospects who might be future assets.
    2. Let Urquidy walk as he will be recovering from TJ surgery for most, if not all, of 2025 and is then going to be a free agent. We have 3 starters in AAA to take his place.
    3. Keep as many young controllable relievers as you can who can develop during their inexpensive years to make up for Hader’s big cost.
    4. Sign a reasonably priced innings eater starting pitcher who finishes filling out a young rotation.

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    • I will finish up when I have time later today. I will add that I see the Astros fighting for the 2025 AL West crown with this offseason’s moves and being back in the saddle as a favorite for a title by 2026.

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  8. Much more out there to talk about beyond Alex, but my belief is that Bregman has already begun his decline. And since his career year in 2019, his OPS has averaged .794. That’s not worth 30 million a year. But the majority of fans will continue to push his return, because we don’t have an apparent replacement for him today. I’d rather take that step back in 2025 than commit to a long term deal that might hand cuff us further for the next 5 or 6 years.

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    • Zanuda nailed it above. We can’t undo all of the bad contracts from recent years. It will be interesting to see how much Bregman can get in offers from other clubs. I keep reading the the Yankees or Blue Jays are going to back up the Brinks truck…but I find that questionable. I think the economics of MLB are in really bad shape right now and while the Yankees and Dodgers can keep spending like money grows on trees the other franchises are unlikely to follow suit. It’s possible Crane has decided the Astros are moving on and will not revisit it. It’s also possible that resigning Bregman is his main task for Brown this offseason. Neither would surprise me. What I think they should do is somewhere in the middle – come up with a plan for the scenario where Boras drops the ball for Bregman like he did last offseason for guys like Jordan Montgomery and have a contingency plan in place should he become available for far less than expected.

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    • We had an end of life discussion and the doctor said he thought he could save her. The decision was not mine to make, but one for my kids and the grandkids. We picked her up today and she is improved and we will see how it goes.

      As an aside, one of my granddaughters, who went with me yesterday to the vet, was crowned homecoming queen at the football game tonight. It was a good day.

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      • As a second aside, another granddaughter, the gymnast, fractured a neck vertebrae this spring in a four-wheeler accident. Today was her first official meet since returning to the gym and she did well and then spent this evening giggling with her cousins at the football game.

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  10. Dodgers and Yankees. These two teams playing against each other in the World Series is great baseball theater, like them or not.

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      • ME TOO! As an avid golfer there’s almost nothing I rather do than play golf. As we get older (most of us) we find we can’t play baseball, football, basketball, hockey, track and field, etc. but we can still play golf. I try to play 3 times a week and I watch golf when I’m not playing so it keeps us older types going.

        I never was a decent player in any of those other sports anyway so I’m glad for golf.

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    • Yeah, I was really entertained by the (presumptive) MVP fouling out causing a former MVP to be intentionally walked so another former MVP could end the game with a grand slam.

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  12. 2025 position players. How is Bregman’s arm? Only Bregman and the Astros know what went on there. It could be a factor in his signing. If his arm is ok, then he is a candidate for a contract like Altuve got, with maybe less AAV in the front years and more in the back years, because he is younger. You definitely give him a QO if his elbow is sound and he truly slept on his arm.

    Tucker! I think he is the guy to break Crane’s bank. He has a good arm. He is a good fielder. He is a good base stealer. He hits for average and power. Wait, that adds up to a five tool player! He is not prone to injury as his shin injury was a fluke. MMP is perfect for him with it’s short RF porch. He has a great baseball body type with his height and weight. He could really pan out with an 8 year deal because it would be from his 29-36 years. I would offer him 8/250. Crane is going to have to up his max deal to stay competitive. Salaries are going to continue rising and the luxury tax line will also. Tucker is affordable, home grown and less prone to long slumps than Bregman is. Try like hell to lock him up.

    Keep Meyers and Chas for 2025 and hope they break out. If not, they are at least inexpensive enough to let go next offseason. when you are ready to utilize your top prospects.

    Quit messing with Diaz. Work on his defense and let him play 135 games at least behind the plate. Making him the catcher of the future needs to start now so that his hitting isn’t constantly interrupted by some false notion that he can’t be in the lineup every day.

    Keep Singleton at least for a year in his pre-arb, but work Dezenzo or Whitcomb into a future first baseman.

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