Astros’ off-season: The one thing

Today, we are revisiting a little feature where we look at many of the Astros we expect to see on the roster in 2025 and touch base on the “one thing” that we would like them to work on in the off-season.

Position Players

First of all, with the exception of Kyle Tucker who walked (56) more than he struck out (54), the whole team needs to improve their walk percentage heading into 2025. So, I broke my first rule that there is one thing for them to work on – as I’m giving them homework on two things to improve this off-season.

Let’s look at the individuals…

Yordan Alvarez –  The first player on the list and the homework assignment is one where it is hard to figure out what he should do. In 72 road games, you had an excellent slash .333 BA/.422 OBP/1.092 OPS with 22 HRs/56 RBIs. In 75 home games, you had a good slash .283 BA/.362 OBP/.828 OPS with 13 HRs/30 RBIs. Your home numbers make no sense for such a great player. The weird thing is that the road is not one place – you hit in 21 different ball parks of all shapes and sizes besides Minute Maid Park. And cumulatively you were much better than when you were at home. Whatever the reasons, whether it is between the ears or something about the ballpark, this needs to change.

Jose Altuve – In 2021, Jose, you had the most K’s in your career at 91, but your K rate was only 13.4%. Your K rate has risen each season since and in 2024 you struck out 119 times with a 17.5% K rate. This would be a nice time to work on that number and at least not hit the 20% mark, though it may be a bit age related.

Jeremy Pena – Jeremy, you had 148 ABs with runners in scoring position (RISP) and slashed a solid .270 BA/.333 OBP/ .705 OPS, a bit better than your normal slash of .266/.308/.701. But in the 61 ABs where you had RISP with two outs, your numbers plummeted to .164 BA/ .261 OBP/ .490 OPS. It is hard to tell someone to be more clutch, but you are a good enough hitter that you need to concentrate more in these situations.

Alex Bregman – Yes, you will likely try to improve on some other team, but just in case….. OK, we want to emphasize the BB/K numbers with you before we move onto one other thing. Since 2018, you have had four seasons where you have more walks than Ks and in the other two seasons you have had 2 more Ks and 9 more Ks. This was until 2024, when you had 44 walks against 86 Ks. That is way out of whack for someone with your eye. Anyways, the other thing that I hate to bring up, but Alex, your early swoon was worse this year than ever. First 51 games – .206 BA/.273 OBP/.589 OPS/ 4 HRs/ 21 RBIs – your last 94 games – .288/.338/.862 with 22 HRs/54 RBIs. Please fix that if you are sticking around.

Yainer Diaz – I hate to complain about the best-hitting catcher the Astros have ever had, but a nit to pick here, Yainer. We loved the .299 BA and the 84 RBIs in 2024. But we wondered where your power went. Your HR% went from 6.1% in 2023, when you hit 23 HRs in only 355 ABs, down to 2.3% in 2024, when you hit 16 HRs in 585 ABs. Maybe you can end up somewhere in the middle while keeping a solid batting average?

Kyle Tucker – Other than the fact you missed almost three months with your bruised (fractured) shin, your regular season numbers are wonderful almost every way we slice and dice them. So, we must criticize that which is probably unfair due to small sample size, but it is your recent performance in the post-season. In the 5 post-season series going back to the 2022 ALCS against the Yankees – you have played in 23 post-season games with 81 ABs. Your slash is a bad .148 BA/ .278 OBP/ .549 OPS with 4 doubles/ 2 HRs/ 5 RBIs in that time. Your 0 for 7 in the Wild Card against the Tigers is a little unfair here, but you have been struggling for a while when the team needed you most and hopefully this season (if you make the postseason) will be different.

Jon Singleton – I know that left-handed hitters usually struggle with hitting left handed pitchers, but your .145 BA/.207 OBP/.457 OPS is ridiculously bad. Sit down with your buddies Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker and see what tips they can give you as they are both good against the guys who pitch from the same side.

Chas McCormick – We were all behind you when Dusty Baker only played you 115 games in 2023. You were very good (.273 BA/ .353 OBP/.842 OPS/ 22 HRs/ 70 RBIs) and deserved more playing time. Last season you were awful (.211 BA/.271 OBP/.576 OPS/ 5 HRs/ 27 RBIs) and didn’t deserve what you got. Your one thing is to spend all off-season watching film from 2023 and figure out how to get back to being that guy.

Jake Meyers – In many ways, you are (as friend of the blog, Steve pointed out) like previous Astro Jake Marisnick. You are who you are and who you are, a very good fielder and not a good hitter. I would point out that Marisnick had a better arm and was a better baserunner, when he got on base. On the positive side, you statistically would seem to have been a bit unlucky in 2024. Your BAbip was low at .263 and even with dropping your K rate the second straight year and raising your hard-hit rate significantly, your BA dropped. The one thing we want you to work on is his hitting against right-handed pitchers. That .207 BA/.267 OBP/.603 OPS slash line was a significant contributor to a poor 2024.

Mauricio Dubon – With men on base, Mauricio, you were a robust .306 BA. With no one on, you were a stinky .237 BA. Watching you, you seemed to bear down a bit more with runners on and took a few more pitches (but rarely walks). Please apply that concentration to the bases empty portion of your at bats.

Pitchers

Framber Valdez – Your slash against right-handed hitters was an excellent .214 BA/.285 OBP/.596 OPS, while against leftys it was an ok .252 BA/ .298 OBP/ .681 OPS. Maybe it is a matter of pitch mix, but if you improve against leftys, you can boost your already very good numbers.

Hunter Brown – Hunter, you have the same problem as Framber. The right-handers, the ones you would think you would dominate, hit well against you (.279 BA/.339 OBP/.716 OPS), while the leftys struggled (.209 BA/.285 OBP/.623 OPS). Maybe you need to add a pitch or use/locate one differently to the rightys.

Ronel Blanco – One amazing stat on you, Blanco – in your 13 wins, you had a 1.20 ERA. Just wow. I looked at your overall stats, and I am not suggesting anything but to work on repeating one of the great seasons out of nowhere in club history.

Spencer Arrighetti – Spencer when you had runners in scoring position, the slash against you was .279 BA/ .394 OBP/.863 OPS. When Ronel Blanco had RISP his slash was .144 BA/.210 OBP/.489 OPS. Why don’t you spend the winter studying some film of Ronel with runners in scoring position and see if you can be that tough.

Josh Hader – This one is easy. In save situations, you were 2-2 with 34 saves in 36 chances and a 2.70 ERA/ 0.791 WHIP.  You were 6-6 in a non-save situation with a 4.98 ERA/ 1.136 WHIP. Imagine it is a save every time, Josh.

Bryan Abreu – Bryan your road ERA was a puzzlement in 2024. It was below average (for a shutdown reliever) 3.79, while your home ERA was 2.37. The odd thing is that your stats are very similar both on the road (40.1 IP, 29 hits, 18 BB, 5 HR, 1.165 WHIP) and at home (38 IP, 30 hits, 14 BB, 4 HR, 1.158 WHIP). Maybe more concentration is needed on the road to get out of your jams without damage?

Ryan Pressly – Your 3.49 ERA (a tad lower than your 3.58 ERA in 2023), did not seem to pass the eye test. There is a bit of Houdini there because your hits allowed went up above 1 per inning, your walks rate went up and your Ks rate went down. Only your HR rate dipped which may be why your ERA dropped a bit. At your age you may not get that velocity back, but it felt like your pitch location got you in the most trouble. See if you can knock down that hit rate.

Tayler Scott – Kind of like Blanco, it is kind of hard to give you much criticism on an excellent season out of the blue. The worst part of your season was at the end when you were trying to throw through an injury. Perhaps, that is the advice we give you – don’t hide the injury and try to push through. We know you probably loved getting this much usage the first time in your MLB career, but they would wait for your return.

Kaleb Ort – Great job helping the team out down the stretch. I think you know where I am going with my “one thing” speech. You gave up 7 HRs for the Astros, and ironically, those were the only 7 runs you gave up for us. Good job limiting them to solo shots. Maybe you can see if you can keep a couple of those in the park.

Bryan King – Very good numbers almost everywhere in your limited stay with the Astros. Very, very good numbers in high-leverage situations and 2 outs with runners in scoring position. One place to work on – First pitches put in play you gave up a .350 BA/ .381 OBP/ 1.031 slash. Maybe mix it up a bit on that first pitch or at least the location.

There are other position players and pitchers I could have chosen, but I’ll leave those to you. It will be interesting to see if anyone changes at all over the winter.