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The Fat Lady sang: Now it’s time to take inventory – The pitchers

This took a little while to compile, but hopefully, it will be worth it as we examine what the Astros have or may have in 2025.

Pitching

Suppose we floated back to the first week in June. In that case, it seems impossible that by the end of the season, the Astros’ starting pitching would be better and more reliable than the bullpen, especially if the big three in the bullpen were all relatively healthy.  Ending the month of May, the rotation looked like this:

  • Spencer Arrighetti had a 5.98 ERA through May, and it looks like he needed another year at AAA.
  • Hunter Brown – 6.39 ERA through May, and only that “good” because he had pitched a little better after being sent to the bullpen.
  • Framber Valdez – A very un-ace like 4.34 ERA through May.
  • Justin Verlander—After missing the first couple of weeks of the season, Verlander pitched solidly through May with a 3.26 ERA. A little more than a week into June, he suffered a neck strain and was gone for two to three months.
  • Ronel Blanco – Had been brilliant – a 2.44 ERA through May, but everyone was waiting for the other shoe to drop since there was nothing in his background to support this fall from the heavens.
  • Oh, and in the first week of June, the Astros received the wonderful news that Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy had season-ending surgery.
  • Fans still had a little (misplaced) hope that Lance McCullers and/or Luis Garcia would come to the rescue. But in general, it looked like the makings of a disaster.

The bullpen had started off slowly but was coming around. In May, Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu, Tayler Scott, Seth Martinez, Parker Mushinski and even Rafael Montero had ERAs at 2.08 or below. Ryan Pressly had an ERA of 3.72, not great, but not horrid.

But coming down the stretch and into the playoffs – the starters seemed to be the better bet.

Starters

The Astros’ decision-making on a future path forward will intensely focus on the starting pitching area.

  • He had a shaky start in the Wild Card, but overall, Framber Valdez (15-7, 2.91 ERA) gave the Astros a very good regular season to help lead them to the playoffs.  Heading into 2025, Framber will be getting his last arbitration agreement, projected to be $17.8 Million Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2025 – MLB Trade Rumors or he gets extended (or traded?).
  • Hunter Brown (11-9, 3.49 ERA) had a solid year, that was great (11-5, 2.51 ERA from May 5 on) once he figured things out. Hunter will be heading into his last season before arbitration, so they could force him to take the minimum, but hopefully will give him some amount above that – $1.5 million?
  • Ronel Blanco was the Astros pitching hero out of nowhere, especially early when no one was pitching well, and he threw his no-hitter and a string of great starts. He ended up 13-6, 2.80 ERA and heads into 2025 where he will likely still make the MLB minimum, which should fall about $760K.
  • Spencer Arrighetti’s numbers for the season 7-13 and a 4.53 ERA were very so-so, but he had a 3.08 ERA in his last 14 appearances and gave the team critical innings in a season where he should have been in AAA. Like Blanco he will likely make the minimum at about $760K and give the team good value if he makes the rotation.  
  • Justin Verlander (5-6, 5.48 ERA) will be a free agent, and it would be a huge shock if the Astros pursued him unless he wants to pitch for an equally huge discount and he does not seem to be that guy.
  • Lance McCullers Jr. will make $17.7 million each for the next two seasons, it would be nice if he started earning that again, but will he come back as a starter or at all? He was 4-2 with a 2.27 ERA when he returned from injury in 2022.
  • Luis Garcia is projected to make $1.875 million in arbitration. It would be wonderful if he returned healthy and anything like the pitcher, he was back in his last healthy season 15-8, 3.72 ERA in 2022.
  • Cristian Javier will receive $10.4 million next season whether he pitches or not. July has been thrown out as a possible return date after Tommy John (TJ) surgery for Cristian and for the next person on the list…
  • Jose Urquidy is projected to make $3.75 million after his arbitration this season. Again, at best he may return after the first half of the season if he recovers well from his TJ surgery.
  • J.P. France had his shoulder surgery in early July 2024 after having given the Astros a very strong rookie season in 2023 (11-6, 3.83 ERA). There has been no indication when he might return, but if it is a 12-month recovery, he may not even get into shape before the end of 2025.
  • Yusei Kikuchi? He is a free agent who is likely worth a lot more now that he gave the Astros superb pitching after they traded for him at the trade deadline. He made $10 million in 2024 for the last season of his last contract. He is 34 years old, but he was also throwing fastballs in the high 90’s and with the Astros help, he was showing a very effective mix of pitches. Let’s say he signs with someone for let’s say 3 seasons / $48 million. (That is a pure wag on his new contract).
  • On the cusp of the majors are three pitchers, who did a good job in a hitter’s league at Sugar Land this season, could figure into the mix in 2025. Ryan Gusto (8-6, 3.70) who unfortunately was rained out of his major league debut is on the 40-man roster. A.J. Blubaugh (12-4, 3.83 ERA) and Colton Gordon (8-2, 3.94 ERA) are not yet on the 40 man, but could potentially be there some time in the next season. Might one or two of them join some of the pitchers listed above in a totally home-grown rotation. Only Verlander and Kikuchi from above are “outsiders”.

Key Questions:

  • Will they seriously pursue Yusei Kikuchi in free agency? Is this tied to whether they can re-sign Alex Bregman or whether they can extend Kyle Tucker or Framber Valdez?
  • Is Verlander any kind of consideration? Should he be?
  • Who if anyone can they rely on seeing in 2025 among Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, J.P. France and Cristian Javier? What role would they be expected to play? It is possible McCullers and Garcia are available at the beginning of 2025, but Urquidy, France and Javier are not likely to be available until well into the season, if at all.
  • If they can’t sign Framber to an extension is a trade of him while he holds value a consideration?
  • Would they trade from an apparent area of strength to shore up 3B, 1B or OF areas?

Relievers

Where is this team headed with their relief corps?

  • The Astros owe Josh Hader $76 million over the next 4 seasons, so he is not going anywhere. He was at times a disappointment, though he had 34 saves in 38 opportunities. His 2-2, 34 saves, 2.70 in saves situations was good. His 6-6, 4.98 ERA in non-save situations was not.
  • Ryan Pressly triggered a $14 million option in his contract with his number of appearances in 2022 and 2023. I’ve seen a $2 million buyout listed in some publications but no indication whether that is still a possibility. The eye test was that his season seemed worse than the 2-3, 4 saves, 3.49 ERA with some bad appearances down the stretch and in the final Wild Card game. He did have some very good stretches out of the bullpen, and supposedly, he was fighting a back problem late in the season.
  • Bryan Abreu is eligible for arbitration for the first time and is expected to get a raise from $1.75 million to somewhere around $3.75 million. He had a good season in 2024 (3-3, 1 save, 3.10 ERA) but not as transcendent as in 2022 (1.94 ERA) and 2023 (1.75 ERA). This may have been due to a bit of overuse (78 appearances) in 2024.
  • Tayler Scott is not Arb eligible until 2026 and just made slightly over the minimum at $790K in 2024. He was brilliant for most of 2024 (7-3, 2.23 ERA) until he tried to pitch through a spine strain that ended his season. Hopefully, the injury will heal, and he will return to a role as an effective middle-to-later innings cog in the bullpen.
  • Rafael Montero will receive $11.5 million in 2025 from the Astros, no matter what. After accepting an assignment to AAA Sugar Land after his DFA, he is still part of the organization. He would have to be put back on the 40-man roster to pitch for the Astros in 2025. He pitched better at Sugar Land (1-1, 2.20 ERA) vs. his half-season with the big club (1-2, 4.70 ERA) in 2024. If he could find some of his 2022 magic, he could contribute to this bullpen, but how likely is that?
  • Penn Murfee is an intriguing option for the bullpen if…..he can come back from his elbow surgery in 2023 and his late-season shutdown in the minors in 2024. In 2022 and part of 2023 he had strong numbers with the Mariners in 80 appearances (5-2, 2.70 ERA) before his injury.  He is arbitration-eligible this off-season but is projected to get only $800K.
  • Hector Neris is a free agent after his short stint with the Astros. Did they see anything in his 2-1, 1 saves, 4.70 ERA with the team that makes them want to pursue him for 2025?
  • Seth Martinez was a story of good start and a bad end in a season where he was used a lot early and then shuttled between AAA and the big club. He was 3-2, 2.33 ERA in his first 33 appearances and 0-0 with a 7.07 ERA in his last 12 appearances. He would not be arbitration eligible until 2026.
  • Kaleb Ort was quite effective for the Astros (1-1, 2.55 ERA in 22 games) after being picked up on waivers from the Orioles. He is turning 33 this off-season and is not arb eligible until 2026.
  • Bryan King was picked up off waivers from the Cubs in December 2022 (during the no-GM hole in the front office). The lefty was quite good (1-0, 2.39 ERA in 28 games)  after earning a promotion with a solid first half at AAA Sugar Land. He would not be expected to be arb eligible until 2027 (though it is not explicitly listed as such).
  • Shawn Dubin had his moments in 31 games with the Astros (1-1, 2 saves, 4.17 ERA) though he needs to get his walk rate down to be more effective. His is not arb eligible until 2027.
  • Forrest Whitley finally made his MLB debut at the age of 35. (OK, it just seems that way). In three appearances, he showed big-time strikeout ability (5 in 3.1 innings) and big-time wildness (3 walks and 1 HBP in those same 3.1 innings). The 27-year-old would not be arb eligible until at least 2027. Is it his turn to grab a spot in the 2025 bullpen?
  • Caleb Ferguson is a free agent after being picked up in a trade with the Yanks. He made $2.4 million for the 2024 season (most from the Yanks) and gave the Astros an 0-1, 3.86 ERA performance in 20 games. Did they see enough to try and re-sign him?
  • Nick Hernandez was bought from the Padres in mid-season. Giving up 4 home runs in 8 innings was problematic, resulting in a 7.88 ERA. He is not eligible for arbitration until 2027.
  • Luis Contreras had a small cup of coffee with the Astros and did not exactly shine with a 9.00 ERA in 5 appearances, though all six runs he gave up were in one appearance before he was sent back to AAA. He would not be arb eligible until at least 2027 or 2028.
  • Oliver Ortega is a righty picked up off waivers from the Twins after the 2023 season. His career numbers have been pretty blah – 2-1, 1 save, 4.03 ERA in 45 games. He had elbow surgery to remove loose bodies (that hurts to type it) and did not return for the rest of the season. He is arb eligible in 2026.
  • Bennett Sousa was picked up on waivers from the Tigers in September 2023. The lefty had a nice short stay with the Astros – giving up no runs, 1 hit, 8 Ks, 0 walks in 6.1 innings in late 2023. He had season ending Thoracic Outlet surgery in early April 2024. He would be arb eligible for the 2026 season.
  • An interesting option is Wander Suero, who at 33 years old was paid $850K to have a good season as the AAA Space Cowboys closer (7-1, 37 saves, 2.66 ERA). He made one appearance for the Astros facing one hitter for the Royals who walked off an extra inning loss with a single.

Key Questions

  • If Lance McCullers Jr. does return healthy is there any chance, he gets used in a relief role?
  • Do they finally admit what everyone can see that Bryan Abreu should be the eighth-inning option instead of Pressly?
  • If he is healthy, does Tayler Scott move ahead of Pressly into the trio of late-inning relievers?
  • Any chance they can try to trade Pressly, even if they must pay some of his salary?
  • Does Rafael Montero get a chance to prove he still has something in the tank?
  • Does Forrest Whitley finally earn a shot at a spot in their bullpen to start the season?
  • Where does Penn Murphee fall in the mix?
  • Are Ort and King the solid-looking options they appeared to be down the stretch?

There you go, a summary of the pitching situation for the Astros today. Where do you think they will go with it?

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33 responses to “The Fat Lady sang: Now it’s time to take inventory – The pitchers”

  1. I would be shocked if Colton Gordon wasn’t protected. Who is going to pass up a 25 yo LH starting pitcher who was named a PCL All-Star for 2024 for $100,000?

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    • I agree with you OP on Gordon and Blubaugh does not need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft since he was drafted in 2023.

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  2. Boy there’s a lot to ponder here as there are too many potatoes in the sack and we can’t use all of them. I’ll do my best to sort them out.

    Arrighetti looks to be a viable starter and he’s cheap. Hunter Brown could be our #1 and he’s also a deal. Framber is expected to make big bucks and I honestly think we might be in a position to trade him. We could get some pretty decent prospects as he is probably going to want to a long term contract (thinking 5 @ $25MM). Just don’t think he’s worth it. JV makes me think of the Johnny Unitas quote many years ago (Glad to pass) unless he can be gotten on the cheap. Ronel Blanco is another decent pitcher (so far) that is also inexpensive. Javier is locked in and hopefully he’ll be ready sometime next season. Urquidy hopefully will be back next season and he’s got one more year of arbitration but he could be trade bait also. Garcia is another “bargain” but his prospect for returning is up in the air. And of course there’s the LMJ vanishing act. It would be nice to have him return (?) but in what role remains an unknown. We could have an over abundance of starters but we could also be short given the injury situation. Oh I forgot about Kikuchi but I think he’ll be offered more by another team but I wouldn’t mind having him on a short term deal. You also mentioned JP France. While not a top of the line pitcher he could fit into a 4th or 5th spot or a long reliever but also a trade piece. I’m not in tune with the Sugar land pitchers you mentioned so I’ll defer to your expertise in that matter.

    And now for the bullpen synopsis and analysis. We’re stuck for another 4 years with Hader’s (spit) contract (thanks Jim Crane) so nothing we can do there. Byran Abreu should be given the 8th inning job as I feel he’s earned it. Hopefully we don’t burn him out. I like the idea of having Taylor Scott, Seth Martinez, Bryan King, Kaleb Ort, Shawn Dubin, Caleb Ferguson available in various roles if we decide to keep them around. The low cost factor definitely helps. I don’t think any of these guys are lights out pitchers but they could help us out. Then you have Hector Neris who might fit in but I think he’s not what he was in ’23 and he might want too much. Sure would like to see Whitley in some form or fashion make the team and perform. P Murfee is what you described so another possibility exists there. Then we have Montero and we’re pretty much stuck with him for ’25 at that ridiculous amount. Then we have Ryan Pressley. We need to unload him and his 14MM contract even if we have to eat some of it. Maybe Dana Brown can pull off some kind of coup.

    I’m sure I’ve missed something or someone but there’s a lot to digest here. Finally your questions. If LMJ returns I think it should be short relief. Abreu (see above). Yes Taylor Scott to replace Pressley in the 7th inning spot. Trade Pressley. Give Montero a shot. What is there to lose (except for a few games). Whitley (see above). Murphee, Ort and King (see Above).

    Lots to chew on here Dan. Let’s see what the rest of the peanut gallery thinks.

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  3. The glass half full analysis says not pitching in October and November for the first time in 8 years will benefit our organization. The glass half empty analysis says that we’ve put a lot of mileage on some arms and if you weren’t paying attention to how they were dropping like flies that last few years, well, injuries to the guys who threw all those innings should be a major concern for Dana Brown.

    As of right now, I’d be looking to trade Framber. You can’t get the same return you would have last winter, but we certainly needed his performances in 2024 to get back into contention and win the division so holding onto him was probably the right move. The problem with the plan to move on is that it requires a lot of confidence that some of the injured guys will be ready to go in February. Regarding Verlander, if he’d take an offer in the seven digits before incentives I say make a run at it.

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  4. Dana Brown says we’ll need to get creative this winter. Does that mean he might trade a guy before using up all his pre Free Agent years?

    We would have gotten a lot more for Framber last winter. But without his innings, we would have never gotten to that two and out against The Tigers. However, maybe we could have replaced his innings with a Dylan Cease or a Seth Lugo. Maybe we could have picked up a Jurickson Profer to play the outfield in 2024 for a million dollars. There are guys like these examples that are sitting in plain sight each winter.

    As for Framber, I hate the thought of using up his eligibility and getting nothing for him. I hate the thought of Framber pitching well all year and then folding in game 163. He’ll cost 17.8 million dollars. There are guys out there, maybe multiple guys, that might give us his innings for that kind of money. Or maybe that’s year one of a three year Kikuchi deal. And the bonus would be whatever talent Dana Brown would negotiate for Valdez. We need to get younger and more athletic.

    Moving Framber would be one of the more creative things this club has done in a while.

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  5. Eleven days since Helene wiped out huge swaths of southeastern USA.

    Still not a dime from the Astros or MLB. Not even a penny!

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  6. That’s a lot Dan.

    Before I answer your key questions – I don’t see the Astros making any trades. I can understand the argument for trading Valdez or Tucker. But I don’t see how that really helps your 2025 season, and Crane has kind of shown his hand, really since the departure of Luhnow, that he plays this thing season to season. He is worried about 2025, and not 2027. When you are trapped under some of the money he is (Montero, Abreu and Greinke are being paid next year to NOT play for the Astros, and LMJ is being paid to maybe play) you almost must have the performances of Valdez and Tucker to balance it. Someone besides Yordan has to play up to their money. WSWD may match the trade crowd, but I don’t see the Astros doing that.

    I’ll also say, since I didn’t get around to it last post – when Correa left, the team couldn’t stop talking about Pena. Scouts and coaches that had seen him said he is gamer. Altuve watched him take batting practice once and asked him to marry him (OK, not literally). There were people in the front office telling radio people the Astros will be just fine with Pena. There is not the same amount of love coming Zach Dezenzo’s way. Smart baseball, Moneyball, says any deal for Alex Bregman is going to be insufferable by year 4 of a 7 year deal, but Crane is worried about 2025. It’s not going to surprise me to see him back.

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  7. Now on to the questions.

    If Lance McCullers Jr. does return healthy is there any chance, he gets used in a relief role? – In many ways pitching in relief can be as taxing to an injury prone player as the consistency of the rotation. He is being paid a lot of money to be a middle reliever. He may be a guy that is limited to 4 of 5 innings through April, or whatever he can get 80 pitches out of, but he needs to be starting. He is likely the best chance at replacing Kikuchi if you can’t resign him.

    Do they finally admit what everyone can see that Bryan Abreu should be the eighth-inning option instead of Pressly? – I don’t think Pressly is giving them a choice. They will say all the right things to protect pitchers fragile ego’s, but I assume we will see them switch roles.

    If he is healthy, does Tayler Scott move ahead of Pressly into the trio of late-inning relievers? – When a relief pitcher strings together some good innings it can snowball and turn into a great season. But likely, we just saw Tay Scott’s career year, and not anything I think he is going to repeat. He is great in the role he is in. The same might be said about Murfee, but I think if anyone has a chance to displace Pressly, it would be him. That said, I don’t think anyone does, but I know Murfee and Scott are both going to be critical to this team in 2025.

    Any chance they can try to trade Pressly, even if they must pay some of his salary? – The time to do that has passed unless you are willing to pay MOST of his salary. It might be best to wait now, see if his April is good, and wait for the inevitable TJ surgery on someone’s closer. But Pressly has to keep his end of it and pitch well.

    Does Rafael Montero get a chance to prove he still has something in the tank? – He will. Should he? Nah.

    Does Forrest Whitley finally earn a shot at a spot in their bullpen to start the season? – I mean as long as you can sit at 98 and are under team control with minimum salary, sure.

    Ort and King will be in the mix.

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  9. Seems to me the definite starters at this point are Brown, Blanco and Arrighetti. Almost definite would be Framber. A maybe would be Kikuchi, but having both Framber and Kikuchi might be a long shot. I hope Verlander is not a consideration unless he’s really willing to accept a very team friendly deal with a batch of incentives.

    Others might be Garcia, Gusto, Blubaugh, Gordon.

    I think that still leaves us rather thin from a starting pitching depth perspective.

    It’s hard to guess at whether any of the injured guys will have an impact in 2025. It’s probably best for Dana not to include those guys in the 2025 conversation. He did that too much in 2024.

    By the way, all four series are tied at 1-1. MLB won’t be happy if the Dodgers or Yankees go home early.

    Really hoping Hurricane Milton weakens to at least a more manageable level, however unlikely. Storm wise, this might an unprecedented two weeks for the US.

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    • MLB may not be happy. But I will be.

      The question I have about Verlander – who is going to sign him? I don’t know anyone that is going to back a brinks truck up in his driveway. If he is forced to play for “only” say, 9M, or even 7-8M, are we the team to take that chance? Keep in mind, one could argue we are paying a penance in today’s salary to add one more season in which he may perform, he may not perform, but it’s another year of Houston and another year removed of Detroit – and it matters in the possibility of adding a third Astros hat to Cooperstown (maybe 4th as I assume Wagner will go with an Astros hat). And you could put him at the bottom of the rotation and even skip his starts ever so often. And while every bit of common sense is telling me you shouldn’t put Verlander in your rotation next year, every bit of the fan is telling me LETS GO. This is one where I hope Crane lets his personal fandom overwrite what you might think is common sense.

      Or you can let a resurgent, talented, and appealing (to JV) Detroit team, that happens to need more than one starter, sign him, win, and put that nail in the coffin about what hat is on that bust.

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      • Steven, Verlander is excellent in the dugout and per Hunter Brown, he’s had big impact on his development. I agree. Crane will determine this one. But again, I hope it’s an incentive laden deal.

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      • I forgot about Montero. He’ll be given a chance to win a job too, unless Dana can get extra creative and move him too. Thing is, he’s durable. When he’s on, he’s on. Sometimes I wonder if he’s had another issue going on besides an inability to recreate what he did in 2022. I did not realize until just now that his lifetime WAR is -0.4. His contract might have been worse than the Abreu deal.

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      • Does Kate Upton want to go back to Michigan for the summer? Right now the DET commitments for 2025 sit at $42M mostly thanks to Javy Baez ($25M), Kenta Maeda ($10M). They have 9 arbitration cases and likely will be giving some minor raises to the rest of the returning team. In terms of opening the wallet to pay JV whatever he wants…they can do it. The question is whether he would want to do it. Am I the only one who thinks the Tigers struggle to reach .500 next season?

        I don’t think we can afford JV or Bregman. I do wonder what the team thinks of Brice Matthews right now. I saw him last year and didn’t think the tools played up to the hype when he was drafted. I assume they plan for him to take over for Pena when he becomes too expensive.

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  10. This is the last thing I will write on the following subject.

    I contacted the Astros Foundation (their email can be found in the Astros web site) and very quickly Paula Harris the Executive Director of the Foundation responded on their efforts. She said they will be putting out information in a press release tomorrow on their efforts for Hurricane Helene. They will be sponsoring a couple of collection efforts – one at Constellation Field (Sugar Land) Thursday night and one at Minute Maid Friday morning.

    More importantly they have been coordinating with people on the ground where the need is for lists of what is most needed (generators, supplies, etc) and instead of writing a check are coordinating with their partners on getting these items – especially the generators – and sending them to the afflicted areas. This will be part of the press release also.

    This is not something they are doing in response to my request or anything silly like that – her email came back within 30 minutes of my sending it, but obviously they are trying to do this in a coordinated way that best supports those in need.

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    • Thanks Dan. Here in NC many organizations, individuals, Churches, and others are all pitching in to help those in the high country. Having been to almost all of the places that have been devastated it’s heartbreaking to see the many YouTube videos of it. Asheville, Black mountain, Swananoa, Lake Lure, Chimney Rock, and Marshall are all places that we go to 2 to 4 times a year as well as points in between. It will be years in some places before things get back to normal. For many, “normal” may be a thing of the past. Many thanks to those who are working to help. Makes us grateful for what we have as it can all be gone in an instant.

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    • I probably wouldn’t want to talk about it much either, were I you.

      So do you eat your word salad with blue cheese or ranch dressing?

      I’ll believe it when I see it. And I’ll continue shaming them until I do. But I’ll do it directly to the Foundation now, too. I will not be silent!

      If this was a drag queen story hour or a gay pride event, they would be blowing their horn louder than Gabriel.

      Shameful bunch of human debris……

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  11. What the Astros do with their pitching should be determined by what the Astros want to do for the future. You don’t need to cling to players and salaries that are not going to be part of a winning future and you sure don’t want to try to build a new core while being over the luxury tax line next season.

    If I were the Astros I would trade Framber. He is not a rental and his salary is below what teams would ordinarily pay for a #2 pitcher. I just don’t trust his fielding, his blowup tendencies and his playoff history. Save the $17 million and get a couple of good prospects for him. Replace him with a BOR starter to eat his innings.

    Non-tender Urquidy. Why would you pay a player his final arbitration salary when he probably would not pitch for you in 2025 and then would become a free agent at the end of the year?

    Let Verlander and Kikuchi walk because they are to old to be part of the future.

    Let your young, controllable prospect pitchers get their experience in 2025, because you are trying to use this season to get out from under all the useless salaries of Montero, Jose Abreu and others, and you are building to field a younger, more talented team in 2026.

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    • 1oldpro, Although Urquidy still has that 1.143 WHIP, I can’t justify paying him with our budget constraints. But maybe some wealthy club or a lower budget organization with room to spend might willing to take a chance on him, as part of a trade.

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    • Kikuchi intrigues me though. If the Astros think the tweaking of his pitching approach is not a one month outlier, then maybe they try to sign him for two or three years.

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  12. The pen. Hader should be turned back into a three out closer. Maybe we paid him for more outs than just the three he’s been good at getting, but it certainly did not work. Abreu has to be the other half of the back end. If we could move half of Pressly’s salary along with him, that would be very creative. He gave up 12.1 baserunners per nine innings. His K’s continued to decline. His three year deal should have been two max. If we get Lance back, then at least initially, I’d put him the pen, but I have no expectation he’ll pitch again. If Tayler Scott comes back healthy and duplicates what he did last year, I’ll be impressed. Penn Murfee would be a huge boost. Whitley will get a real shot in ST. King, Ort, Dubin, Martinez, there will be several guys that win or lose a job this coming spring. I’m sure there will be a couple of other new faces getting shot too. And Joe has get to pull back a bit on overuse. Hader seemed willing, but he was toast at the end. We have a lot of question marks in the bullpen today.

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  13. Houston still has a big SP problem… I’d hang on to FV and hope to get good performance from HB and RB. Arrighetti is a big? and can’t be relied on, that leaves Houston needing 3-4 starters. I would not count on ever seeing LM pitch for Houston again. We may get Garcia and if we are really lucky Urquidy back by mid-late next season. I’d be looking to land a SP during the off-season.

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    • Welcome GH.

      Yeah, I really would like to see if they could sign Kikuchi after they have unlocked his effectiveness with this coaching staff as the extra arm you are referencing. Don’t know if he will meet them price wise.

      I think you are right that the biggest question mark there is Arrighetti. We did see improvement with him during the season, with that 3.08 ERA in his last 14 games. He might be a very inconsistent pitcher going forward or he might be turning into Hunter Brown 2.0.

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    • Hi GH, I share your concern regarding the starting pitching. Arrighetti does remain a question mark, but he did provide 145 innings of work and he did pitch so much better after the AS break. I’ve got to hope that if nothing more, he’s a steady 4th or 5th guy in the rotation going forward.

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  14. Looking back at the comments – nice job folks.

    Z – praying for you and donating for the folks in the southeast, especially in NC. Good summary of the overall situation with the pitching.

    Devin – Good point on JV, Kate Upton and Detroit.

    Daveb – lots of good work there and that point on Pressly’s WHIP (hits and walks per 9 IP) sure sticks out.

    Steven – always can count on you to give us a lot to chew on. Great point about McCullers being the best chance to replace Kikuchi – but boy that is a tough thing to depend upon.

    OP – I had not thought about non-tendering Urquidy. There have been a number of pitchers the last few seasons that have been signed as injured free agents with the knowledge that they would not be available until the second season.

    My gut feeling on a Framber trade….they can’t afford to trade him with so many balls up in the air heading into 2025. Perhaps if they get into 2025 and find they are out of the race….or that so many pitchers have returned that they can afford to do it.

    Would you rather risk spending too much on a Framber extension or on a Bregman re-sign or on a Tucker extension?

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    • Dan, I wonder what Dana Brown means by getting creative? Tucker is the one guy I don’t want to lose. But personally, if we lose Bregman and trade both Framber and Tucker, I don’t think that’s the worst thing that could happen to the Astros. I keep saying, this club has to get younger. And maybe Tucker won’t age well with an 8 to 10 year deal. He sure did not bounce back quickly from his first major injury.

      All that said, I think there will be very few personnel changes this winter.

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  15. In keeping with the premise “Taking Inventory of the Pitchers”, here are the healthy starting pitchers we currently have available for 2025, in no particular order: Valdez, Brown, Blanco, Arrighetti, Gusto, Blubaugh, Gordon.

    And this is the list of starting pitchers who were injured but are controllable and may be available next season: France, Lance, Garcia, Urquidy Javier. Add any number of others in the minors who are healthy as you may choose.

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  16. With the same format as above, here are the relievers who were healthy at the end of this season and who are under team control for 2025, in no particular order: Hader, Pressly, Abreu, Scott, King, Ort, Whitley, Dubin, Martinez. Along with them could be Suero and Van Wey, if you wish.

    Added to them, could be those who were injured, but could be included and are under team control for 2025: Sousa, Ortega, Murfee, and Hernandez.

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    • Scott was not healthy at the end of the season, and I wonder if Martinez was not healthy either since he only pitched 3.1 innings in August/September.

      I think we need to sign at least one other starting pitcher, but two would be better.  Sign Kikuchi if he is affordable.  Something tells me we will sign JV, even though we probably should not.

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