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Astros 2024: The Wild Card matchup

It is “ifs and buts” time for your humble scribing servant. If….the Astros had started a mediocre 13-13 instead of a miserable 7-19, would they have avoided the Wild Card altogether? Mathematically, that six-game difference would have launched the Astros into the top two bye spots and into a tie for the top spot in a season when no team in the AL won 95 games, much less the normal 100+ that typically leads the league. The Yanks still would have been the AL leader since they whacked the Astros in 6 of 7 meetings this year. (Though the canceled last game would have had to have been played to resolve the top team in the league).

Of course, no one knows what would have resulted from a better start to the season. Would the Astros have ridden farther into the year with the Jose Abreu millstone around their necks? Would they have reacted the same way? Would they have eventually traded for Yusei Kikuchi? Is it possible they might have ended up worse in the end? It’s the old Butterfly Effect.

But the Astros end the season 88-73 as the AL West division winner and are set up to face the Detroit Tigers in the best-of-three Wild Card series starting Tuesday. How does this matchup look?

Team Astros Tigers
Record 88-73 86-76
Finish First in the AL West Tied for 2nd in the AL Central
Head to head 4-2 2-4
Starting Pitching ERA 3.81 – Tied for 5th in the AL 3.69 – 3rd in the AL
Starting Pitching Record 59-47 40-40
Relief Pitching ERA 3.66 – 4th in AL 3.55 – 2nd in AL
Relief Pitching Saves 43 out of 69 – 6th in AL 45 out of 71 – Tied 4th in AL
Hitting BA .262 – 1st in AL .234 – 10th in AL
Hitting OPS .740 – 4th in AL .685 – 11th in AL
Hitting Runs 740 runs – 5th in AL* 682 runs – 9th in AL

* Note – the Astros ended up two runs out of fourth place in the AL, which they may well have surpassed if they had played the canceled game.

Starting Pitching

The Astros have the deeper starting staff, which, in a Wild Card series, could be over in two games, means little. Right now, the Astros starting rotation for the series, if it goes three would likely look like this – Framber Valdez (15-7, 2.91 ERA), Hunter Brown (11-9, 3.49 ERA) and Yusei Kikuchi (5-1, 2.70 ERA since coming over from Toronto). Likely long relievers should be normal starters Ronel Blanco (13-6, 2.80 ERA) and Spencer Arrighetti (7-13, 4.53 ERA). Is future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander (5-6. 5.48 ERA) going to be on the WC roster? That’s the big elephant in the room question.

The Tigers starting rotation for the Wild Card is one exclamation point followed by two question marks. Tarik Skubal won the AL pitching triple crown with the most wins (18), K’s (228) and best ERA for qualifiers (2.39 ERA) in 2024. The Tigers had a bonafide second starter in Jack Flaherty, who they traded to the Dodgers when they thought they were out of it at the trade deadline. Since then, the most consistent starter has been Keider Montero (6-6, 4.76 ERA – though 3.79 ERA since Aug. 1). Reese Olson (4-8, 3.53 ERA) has started three games since coming back from injury in mid-September but all short starts. Kenta Maeda is a veteran presence, but not very good this year (3-7, 6.09 ERA). Would they start Casey Mize (2-6, 4.49 ERA) or might they go with a short start from a reliever like Beau Brieske (4-5, 3.59 ERA)? The Astros have struggled before (Tampa Bay) against teams that go with relievers as starter game plans.

Edge – Astros

Relief Pitching

Frankly, the back three in the Tigers bullpen, closer Jason Foley (3-6, 28 saves, 3.15 ERA) and set-up men Tyler Horton (7-2, 8 saves, 2.19 ERA) and Will Vest (3-4, 2 saves, 2.82 ERA) have been better than the Astros back three. They have had solid backup from Brieske, Brant Hurter (6-1, 2.58 ERA) and Brenan Hanifee (1-1, 1.84 ERA) in a season where their bullpen has thrown 56 more innings than any other team in the AL and 143 innings more than the Astros.

The Astros bullpen is anchored at the back by closer Josh Hader (8-8, 34 saves, 3.80 ERA), Bryan Abreu (3-3, 1 save, 3.10 ERA), and Ryan Pressly (2-3, 4 saves, 3.49 ERA). The Astros will likely be missing the injured Tayler Scott (7-3, 2.23 ERA) for at least the Wild Card series. While likely mixing in Blanco and Arrighetti, the Astros will also will likely be relying on one experienced hand – Hector Neris (2-1, 4.70 ERA) and three inexperienced choices – Kaleb Ort (1-1, 2.55 ERA), Bryan King (1-0, 2.39 ERA), and Caleb Ferguson (0-1, 3.86 ERA).

Edge – Tigers

Hitting

The Tigers offense looks pretty weak on paper. DH Kerry Carpenter (18 HR/57 RBIs/.932 OPS in only 264 ABs) and LF Riley Greene (24 HRs/ 74 RBIs/ .827 OPS) are the biggest threats. Colt Keith (13 HRs/ 61 RBIs) and OF/IF Matt Vierling (16 HR/ 57 RBIs) have some pop, but in general this is a below average offensive club.

The Astros are hoping to have Yordan Alvarez (.308 BA/ .959 OPS/ 35 HR/ 86 RBIs) back for the wild card, but even without him, they have quite a few more weapons than the Tigers. Kyle Tucker (.289 BA/ .993 OPS/ 23 HRS/ 49 RBIs in only 78 games), Yainer Diaz (.299 BA/ .766 OPS/ 16 HRs/ 84 RBIs), Jose Altuve (.295 BA/ .790 OPS/94 runs/ 20 HRs/ 65 RBIs), Alex Bregman (.260 BA/ .768 OPS/ 26 HRs/75 RBIs) and Jeremy Pena (.266 BA/ .701 OPS/ 15 HR/ 70 RBIs) are all offensive threats and run producers.

Edge – Astros

Managers

A.J. Hinch has been here many times with the team he is facing, going 28-22 in the post-season with the Astros and leading them to 3 ALCS berths and one World Championship. This is his first post-season appearance in his fourth season with the Tigers.

Joe Espada has been here before, but not as the manager, as he was bench coach with A.J. Hinch (2018, 2019) and Dusty Baker (2020-2023). He has been to the ALCS as a coach six times and was there for the 2022 championship. This is his first time as a playoff manager.

Edge – Tigers

Overall

A.J. Hinch has many reasons to inspire his troops to beat his former team. He has the best pitcher in the series and many moving parts behind it, but an anemic offense. Joe Espada has many reasons to inspire his troops to beat his former boss. He has a deeper starting staff, some questions in the bullpen, and a lot more weapons with the every day.

The Astros have a lot of post-season experience. That must account for something, but a wild card series is so short, it could be over before it seems to start. The Astros can’t get rolling slowly.

Edge – Astros in 3 games

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26 responses to “Astros 2024: The Wild Card matchup”

  1. I wonder who is going to be on the roster tomorrow morning? I was hoping Whitley would finally get a shot, but then I noticed that while he had 19 K’s and just 1 BB in August, he walked 8 and struck out just 10 in September. Which guy shows up?

    At this point, I think Verlander gets the 13th slot on the pitchers roster. As bad as he’s been, he did hit 97 on Saturday and might get us a couple of big outs on Thursday if the series goes three games.

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    • I think Whitley had his best season as a pro. His time in MLB starts next year in the Astros bullpen, I hope.

      I hope JV is in the Houston dugout for this series. Wouldn’t mind seeing him getting into a game in relief.

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  2. And are we getting both Chas and Yordan back tomorrow? I think so.

    They’ve got the best starter in MLB. But he’s been almost human on the road and both Tucker and Yordan (probably the only two lefties in the line up tomorrow ) would love to get at him.

    But he sure is not going to walk many. I just hope our guys don’t go diving at pitches that won’t be hit.

    Gosh, I’ve been a Framber detractor in the past, but I think he’ll match Skubal and we’ll get enough offense. Then Hinch might use 7 or 8 pitchers in game two.

    I’m going for a sweep!

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    • Let’s see what Chris Sale does against the Mets later today. He’s tied with Skubal in wins, leading in ERA, and trailing in Ks by only 3.

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      • Fair point. They did not want to use Sale today. Might not be a choice though. Quite a game 1 going right now. Mets just took the lead again. Braves hitting with an out in the 9th.

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  8. Thoughts

    • If Pete Rose ever bet against his team then he should have been banned for life. But I had a problem with that punishment when betting on other games or betting on your own team. I remember that a long long time ago the NFL suspended Paul Hornung and Alex Karras one season for betting on their own teams (against each other). That seemed more reasonable. Anyways he played the game so hard that he took out Ray Fosse at home plate in an All Star Game. Not sure Fosse was ever the same.
    • Not sure what you are getting at about Kris Kristofferson not writing his songs TOF? He sure had a bad singing voice. But he wrote some of the finest songs back then – Sunday Morning Coming Down, Why Me, Lord, Help Me Make it Through the Night, Me and Bobby McGee, Loving Her Was Easier. If I couldn’t enjoy music from the other side of the political aisle it would be tough.
    • Dikembe – known for his finger wag – should have been better known for building hospitals in Africa.
    • Not happy that we are having all three (if it goes that far) WC games in the afternoon. Takes me back to the late 90’s when the team would get eliminated and I would not see any inning of any game because I was at work.

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  9. Over at the crawfishboxes – one of the commenters (Ragtime) was suggesting the Astros go Framber – Kikuchi in the first two games, because the Tigers two best hitters (Greene and Carpenter) are leftys who have bad splits against leftys. I don’t think Espada will do that, but it makes a lot of sense when the Tigers have so few weapons and the two best they have hit lefty.

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  15. Looks like there will be a lot of empty seats at the park today. Tickets selling for as little as 10.00 on the various sites today. The Astros, regardless of their pedigree, never get good start times early in the post season.

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  16. Couple things so as to not lose something to the void

    Has anyone heard from Zanuda? I was thinking he is closer to Raleigh than the mountains, but not sure.

    Lots of talk about whether Pete Rose should be in the HOF now that he has passed away. This frustrates me just as keeping Bonds, Clemens, and the wave of PED cheaters out does. Did Rose violate the integrity of the game by gambling on it? He probably did. Then again, I just watched an idiotic ESPN Bets segment in the pregame show 5 minutes ago. Regarding the PED cheaters, I absolutely hate that they took the game to those depths, but they did it with knowledge and probably encouragement of the owners and MLB commissioner Bud Selig. I wouldn’t let them all in but let’s consider that as amazing (according to media) as Judge and Ohtani were this year, they were definitely not better than a few of Bonds’ best years.

    Houston was 4-2 against Detroit in the regular season and in the two losses we got bad starts by Javier and Arrighetti. I think if our starting pitching shows up we win the series.

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    • Devin,

      Yes I’m still here. I live about 180 miles east of Asheville in the Piedmont Triad. My girlfriends brother and nephew live in Burnsville, about 60 miles northeast of Asheville. They received about 20 plus inches of rain. Our friend’s son lives in Asheville and all were able to get out by going south to S Carolina and then northeast. We typically vacation in the fall by going to Burnsville, Swananoa, Asheville, and Black Mountain. Our understanding is the Black Mountain area is devastated and Chimney Rock where we have vacationed is pretty much destroyed. I was at our church which is collecting supplies to take to the area and there where talks about people who were swept away in the floods as others watched helplessly. The relief effort by church groups, private businesses, and others is phenomenal. Hopefully, the state and federal agencies will get things up and running as soon as possible. I’m getting lots of videos and pictures via Facebook and it’s almost unbelievable. Continued prayers for all and for those in the area along with all the responders who are helping.

      As for the game, things not looking too good at this point as Valdez couldn’t throw a strike in the second and when he did the Tigers made him pay.

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      • Glad you and your extended family are all well Z. Thanks for checking in. What an incredible disaster to overcome.

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      • Oh wow Z – all prayers for the folks affected by this terrible storm and we need to support donations to help and push our government to help also.

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  17. Framber always sucks me back in. He did not pitch a terrible game, but he certainly did not in any way own the game. He’s just not a big game pitcher. And our bats have not been far from getting to their Cy Young, but as is so often the case, we just don’t string enough good at bats together.

    We still have 15 outs to work with. It’s early.

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