The Astros clinched the 2024 AL West Tuesday night in a nail-biting 4-3 win that was a microcosm of the team’s season. Like the season, the early part of the game was a bit of a failure as Framber Valdez put the team behind the eight ball, giving up three runs in the first three innings. They then struggled mightily on the back of expected sources like Kyle Tucker and totally unexpected sources like Jason Heyward to take back the lead. They then tiptoed the rim of the ravine twice, stranding Mariners at third with one out in the sixth and eighth innings before retiring the M’s in order in the ninth, clinching their fourth straight AL West title and seventh in the last eight seasons.
But how did they get here?
The Right Division
We would be remiss if we did not point out that while the Astros were 10 games behind the Mariners on June 18, they would have been 17 games behind the AL East-leading Yankees and 12 1/2 games behind the Al Central Guardindians. And today, instead of being five games up on the Mariners, if they were in those other divisions, they would be 6 1/2 games behind the Yanks and 5 back of Cleveland.
Along with a nice charge by the Astros (55-32 since June18) they were assisted by the slumping Mariners (37-46 since then).
Totally Resilient
In some ways, the Astros have shown resiliency throughout this Renaissance period. Back in 2017, the team had their whole starting rotation on the IL at one point except for Mike Fiers (Spit!!). In 2020 they had injuries to practically everyone on the pitching staff, including Justin Verlander and then they also lost Yordan Alvarez for the season. At different times they had to fill in behind those they let walk including Carlos Correa, George Springer, Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton, Dallas Keuchel and Verlander.
But this season was different. Pitchers who were expected to help lead the way (Cristian Javier, J.D. France, Jose Urquidy) went down early and for the season (at the least). There was hope that Lance McCullers and Luis Garcia would return and be significant contributors. They didn’t. There was hope that Verlander would come back and be what he was. He came back but never was what he had been.
Kyle Tucker missed half the season. Every time the team seemed to be close to a full lineup, someone – Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez – would go down and lessen the impact of the lineup. Even when they went out and picked up Ben Gamel, he produced, and then he broke his leg.
And one of the best pickups out of nowhere, Tayler Scott was brilliant until he got injured, tried to pitch through it and then was put on the IL for the rest of the season.
The team was extremely resilient and kept it together, even when they started the season digging a big hole.
Tough Decisions
Teams often have to swallow salaries when players are injured and cannot play. Justin Verlander receiving $66 million for 2020 and 2021 comes to mind. They will even trade an underperforming player in a salary dump but may have to pitch in some of the dollars. The Mets did this with Verlander (though he had been pitching pretty solidly for them). Rarely do you see teams just walk away from significant money contracts. They will often stick with them far beyond the point where it is a negative investment.
Twice this season, the Astros turned their backs on a large sunk-cost contract. They released Jose Abreu on June 14 after a bad 2023 and a horrid start to 2024 (.124 BA/ .167 OBP/ .361 OPS) and are basically paying him about $30 million in remaining salary to not play for their club.
They DFA’d Rafael Montero at the end of July. Montero chose to take an assignment with the Astros AAA club to try and work out his problems. He could make the team again out of Spring Training in 2025, but if he doesn’t, the team will pay him around $17 million to not pitch for the big club.
The Astros have taken off as a team, especially after the Abreu release, but with both moves, they have shown that they are not controlled by wallet issues. They have done what is best for the team.
Dumpster Diving
The Astros have had a lot of shoes to fill due to injuries and/or poor performance this year. GM Dana Brown has picked up help a few times off the dump heap (or from within the dumpster) to the good of the club. This includes in-season pick-ups OF Jayson Heyward (signed Aug. 29 after being released by the Dodgers), OF Ben Gamel (picked up on Aug. 20 off waivers from the Mets), RP Kaleb Ort (picked up on May 28 off waivers from the Orioles) and RP Hector Neris (signed Aug. 24 after being released by the Cubs). Each player brought value to the team at minimum MLB contract cost.
This goes along with signing someone like Tayler Scott in the off-season and turning him into something he had not been in previous MLB appearances – a viable reliever for a contending club.
Moves that Brought Criticism
The two biggest moves that brought criticism were the off-season signing of closer Josh Hader for a record 5 years / $95 million and the trade that brought Yusei Kikuchi to the team before the trade deadline.
The complaint about the Hader move was that the money spent on him could have been used to bring in two or three relievers for a team with major holes to fill in the bullpen after losing Phil Maton, Ryan Stanek, Hector Neris and the injured Kendall Graveman. But in a rebuttal from the mound, Hader has saved 34 of 38 save opportunities, which is the second most in the AL and a good percentage. And he has been very willing to pitch multiple innings and consecutive days as needed by the team.
The complaint about Kikuchi was that most of us fans did not think he was worth trading Jake Bloss for straight up, much less Bloss, Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner. Most of us fans were wrong as the Astros did some magic tweaking to his slider and to his pitch mix and frankly without him the team might well be watching these playoffs from home.
The Next Man Up
One of the keys to the team’s resiliency has been that they have filled in behind the wounded with unexpected players from the organization. Ronel Blanco pitching near All Star level? Ronel who? Spencer Arrighetti toughing out 142.2 badly needed innings? The kid shouldn’t be even pitching at the MLB until 2025. Bryan King was organization depth, who gave the Astros another strong lefty choice out of the bullpen. Shay Whitcomb jumps up to give them some sporadic help off the bench. Cesar Salazar hits .333 as the third catcher on the roster.
The Top of the Lineup
The Astros top five in the lineup is as good as there is in the majors and the only question has been whether they could get more than 3 or 4 of them in the lineup at the same time. Yordan Alvarez with that .308 BA, 35 HR, 86 RBIs has had the least amount of injury problems (until the end of the season). Alex Bregman forgot to start the season until June but has 26 HRs, 74 RBIs and a heckuva glove. Kyle Tucker has a wonderful slash – .283 BA/ .405 OBP/ .993 OPS with 23 HRs and 48 RBIs in less than 80 games played. Yainer Diaz, with a .302 BA and 84 RBIs, is the best-hitting catcher to ever put on the Astros uniform (I know Biggio was a catcher, but his best years were at another position). And Jeremy Pena has 70 RBIs as the replacement for Carlos Correa at SS. (Correa has better numbers but only has played in 83 games – who would have guessed).
The Pitching
Besides Kikuchi and Arrighetti, the top three of Framber Valdez (15-7, 2.91 ERA), Hunter Brown (11-9, 3.49 ERA) and Ronel Blanco (12-6, 2.88 ERA) have been superb. Besides Hader, the bullpen has been led by Bryan Abreu (3.13 ERA in 77 games), Scott (2.23 ERA in 62 games), and Ryan Pressly (3.56 in 58 games). This team would never have made the turnaround they did without the contributions of a pitching staff that struggled mightily in April and May and came up big ever since.
The Skipper
He makes mistakes. He does not always set up the lineup or bullpen like we would. He does not always communicate the injury situation the way we like.
But when you judge Joe Espada you have to look at that resiliency and how he held a team together that had many chances to implode along the way. The rookie has faced more adversity than a manager should ever expect to encounter and has stayed positive and led his name to the AL West Division title and we hope beyond. Overall, he has been good for a team that responded to his rein as they came back from that adversity.
Those are just some of the reasons this team has succeeded this season from this point of view. How about from your view?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
29 responses to “Astros 2024: Anatomy of a division championship”
My view? I’m obviously not very smart. I got it wrong. But these guys seem to all have a pretty good amount of character. They get along. Perhaps it’s the tradition this winning organization has built along the way. Most clubs never build long term success. The Astros also don’t get too down when things are going bad. They are resilient. Players keep showing up and helping, and then they tell us it’s a great organization to play for. We are lucky fans to have this organization in our city.
But, maybe I’m just too darn cautious, even now. I wanted that game today. I hope Shay Whitcomb is able to forget his day. I think any chance of him playing post season baseball in 2024 evaporated this afternoon. But I wanted the game because there is nothing more the Mariner’s could want right now than to come back to Houston on Tuesday in a Wild Card match up. Sure it’s a long shot. But it’s possible. And there is no other team in the mix that I’d rather NOT play on Tuesday.
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We shout out to our friends at the crawfish boxes – who linked to us today.
Astros Crawfish Boil: September 26, 2024 – The Crawfish Boxes
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I’m pleased the Twins, Royals and Tigers all got a win last night, making the M’s odds longer.
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Thoughts
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The Astros won the division with grit and talent. Rest the players who need rest and try to win every game in Cleveland, just because.
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The experts (I’m not one of them) made the correct move when they traded for Kikuchi. At least that’s the short term answer. We don’t go to the post season without him.
Do the Astros have a viable replacement at third base that won’t cost 175 million? I think the answer is no, but I think the answer to Bregman coming back is also no.
Surely Shay Whitcomb has had a few Budweisers before. But he did pretty much singlehandedly toss that low pressure game. Maybe he drank the cheap Champagne too. I hope Joe gives him another start at third in Cleveland.
Imagine that Justin Verlander is changed with giving his team as many innings as possible on Saturday so that the important pitchers will be fresh and ready to work when the real baseball starts again on Tuesday.
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I would give Bregman a QO and then try to sign him to a deal for good money.
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You think his camp would take 5 x 35?
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Probably.
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I think they still got the postseason without him, but we know he contributed heavily to making that a sure thing and not a maybe.
My question is what happens in the offseason? If Yusei looks at his success here, sees a staff and a geek squad that used something like pitch selection and usage as a difference in his line scores, does he stay here for reasonable but less than what he might get somewhere else salary? If we can keep him for 2 more years he was worth the price of admission. Otherwise, we will be watching 3 lottery tickets with great curiosity that have a combined 18 seasons of team control. If Joey can’t stop the strikeout, if Bloss really can’t throw more than 92 MPH pitches in the middle of the plate, if Will is nothing more than a 26 year old AAAA player, well the answer was simple. If just one of those guys becomes something more…..
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Yeah, that’s why I qualified it by saying “at least that’s the short team answer”. I think Kikuchi goes where the money takes him. He’ll be 34 in June.
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A couple of interesting stats. Baseball Reference has Alex Bregman with a 3.9 combined WAR on the season. They have Jeremy Peña at 4.1.
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I find it amazing that Kyle Tucker played in only 76 games and has a 4.7 WAR
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One of the things about WAR is that it doesn’t matter when you produce as long as you produce. It thinks Aaron Judge hitting a 3 run HR yesterday when his team is down by 5 in the 9th is more valuable than Tucker singling in the go-ahead run in the 10th last week. But the real answer is that Pena gets a bonus to his WAR due to playing C, SS, or 2B in baseball reference’s calculations.
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The Mariners are done. The Twins are all but done.
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So, if Detroit decides to skip Skubal on Saturday, and I don’t see a reason for him to take the mound, we could end up with the hottest team in baseball putting the Cy Young winner on the field for game 1 of a short series against us. I’m not saying the Tigers will lay down this weekend, but I don’t think it matters to them if they are flying to Baltimore or Houston. They haven’t announced a single starter for the weekend which tells me they are setting up.
This is not the matchup we want in a 3 gamer.
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Zach Dezenzo up. Shay Whitcomb down. Alvarez and Chas out for this weekend!
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I was hoping SW would get another start at third this weekend. It would have been a safe time to help him shake the hebejeebies from his historically bad performance earlier this week.
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Congratulations to AJ Hinch and the Tigers.
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Our division winner goes up to Cleveland and wins the series against their division winner and Dezenzo has made a difference.
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Sugarland won the AAA Championship with a 13-6 win over Omaha. Shay Whitcomb was named MVP of the Game.
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Cleveland did not seem to have a whole lot of interest in playing for the #1 seed. I don’t get that.
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Thoughts
Can’t believe we are to the end of the season already. Now the real season begins – a new post will be ready later today.
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Dan, Gusto was not protected last year, but he was one of the better pitchers in the high-altitude PCL this season and is now on the roster.
We might expect Colton Gordon to be added also, sometime this fall.
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Forget the lineup above – the Astros have changed it up due to the long rain delay and guys like Altuve, Bregman and Tucker are now sitting if the game ever re-starts
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A three plus hour rain delay continues with no end in sight for a game that is absolutely meaningless. The umps would have called this one by now, soggy fans would have gotten a pass to a game for early next season and everyone could go home, but I’m sure New York has taken over the process in Cleveland.
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Game cancelled, regular season over.
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We’re going to go against arguably the best pitcher in MLB on Tuesday. I’m good with that. We need Framber help by throwing one of his own impeccable games. And it would be great to see Yordan in the line up.
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Thoughts
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