Astros 2024: One week to go

It is time for another mind dump from your fearful leader. I used to be your fearless leader, but November has me worried. With one week to go in the regular season, what are Dan P’s thoughts today?

  • The Astros’ scenario for making the playoffs is quite simple.  They need to win one of their next three games against the Mariners to win the AL West. Yes, they could get swept and still win the West if they win 2 of 3 from the Guardindians or they win 1 and the Mariners lose one to the A’s or they win none and the Mariners lose two to the A’s. But let’s not go there.
  • This simply comes down to the Astros with three strong starting pitchers—Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez, and Yusei Kikuchi—against a good starter, Bryce Miller, and the TBD brothers. The TBD is because the M’s might decide with their season on the line to bring George Kirby, their best starter, back on three days rest on Tuesday (if they win Monday). Otherwise, Logan Gilbert, who has been good but not great, might pitch Tuesday on regular rest and Kirby on Wednesday.
  • Even if the Astros clinch tonight or in the next couple of days, the Mariners are only 2 games back of the final wild card spot, so they will continue to play hard no matter what.
  • Why oh why did they have to call Yordan’s injury a “contusion”? After the Kyle Tucker fiasco (three months for a shin contusion that was actually a hidden fracture) the Astros’ fandom would rather hear about anything else – even anal fissures (reference Kazuo Matsui). Ouch.
  • It just figures that the moment the Astros’ offense starts really tearing things up with a finally healthy Jose Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker, Alex Bregman, Yainer Diaz top of the lineup that their best/ most powerful hitter goes down. This has been an awful season for injuries anyway you look at it.
  • It feels like Justin Verlander’s last poor start and his statements after the fact about coming back too soon might not only have him not starting any playoff games, but also not being on the post season roster. He should not be in the running for a starting gig in the postseason, and in his 563 appearances in the major leagues – he has one relief appearance, the one in the 2017 ALDS, where he gave up a lead-changing homer to the first hitter he faced. If we never see him pitch again for the Astros, we can only tip our caps to him and thank him for his role in our two championship seasons.
  • Whatever time Yordan misses may help the Astros infield defense. This would hopefully turn first base into a share between Victor Caratini and Jon Singleton. Yainer Diaz, who has not been very good at first base could then shuttle between catcher and DH instead of first.
  • Must give kudos to Shay Whitcomb, who had his first at bat in 2 weeks and came through with a critical hit for the Astros (who then had their closer then bobble the lead).
  • The bullpen appears a lot shakier lately. Tayler Scott has headed to the IL and may not pitch again this season. Hector Neris just gave up runs two appearances in a row. Ryan Pressly has been used sporadically lately. Josh Hader (after admittedly being dominant for a good length of time) suddenly looked very hittable Sunday. Bryan Abreu looks great except when he does not. Is Kaleb Ort ready for higher leverage innings? Or will whatever starter(s) end up in the bullpen be expected to save the day?
  • The Mariners have had opportunities to make a run at the Astros, but they seem to go into losing jags at the wrong time or tend to win when the Astros win. They are five games back today after being 3-1/2 games back on the 11th of September. They were last tied with the Astros a month before that on August 11. This is their first head-to-head with the Astros since they lost 2 out of 3 in Seattle back in the third week of July.

By this time a week from now (or hopefully much sooner) we will know if the Astros are going home or moving onward and who they will be playing if they make the Wild Card.  Then things will get really interesting….

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13 responses to “Astros 2024: One week to go”

  1. Just in the past few weeks we’ve continued to lose players. Chas with some sort of hand fracture. Gamel with a fibula fracture. Taylor Scott, a screwed up spine. Who knows what’s bothering Abreu or Pressly. They keep battling but are not themselves. And Yordan again. The baseball gods have tested our Astros like never before. I’d like to win tonight and a week to regroup.

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  2. Not only can we not hit, the bull pen has caught a bad case of giving up runs. While we only need a single win to eliminate Seattle, I am not optimistic, at least in this series. but one never knows.

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  3. “…but November has me worried.”

    From the Did You Know department: the phrase “fear not” appears 365 times in the Holy Bible? A year has 365 days. Coincidence? I believe not.

    The point being don’t worry. God’s got this. He’s proved it twice now. No further evidence is necessary as far as I’m concerned.

    Further entreaties are always beneficial, though!

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  4. Tonight is a big night. Framber is on the hill. And obviously Joe did not want to use Abreu and Pressly last night, even only down a run. So we’ve got our best starter and the mainstays of our pen lined up. If we don’t win tonight, it starts getting a bit dicey, even being three up. I don’t care how many times the Astros have been through this, there is still plenty of pressure, especially when the guys you’re playing don’t really have anything to lose.

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    • Alright, Romus – all credit to Ethan.

      • He ended the year 4-6 with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.208 WHIP pitching across three levels (A, A+, AA)
      • Interesting – he struggled a bit in his short stint at Asheville (A+ ball in the middle assignment) with a 7.15 ERA, but was excellent at both A (Fayetteville) and AA (Corpus)
      • He was 2-2 with 2 saves and a 2.31 ERA at A ball
      • He was 2-2 with a 2.36 ERA at AA ball
      • He started 19 games and threw in relief 13 times this season
      • He had a very good 11.7 K/ 9 IP and a solid 3.5 walks/ 9 IP on the season
      • Here’s hoping he gets the call to AAA sometime next year and continues dealing!

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  6. Thoughts

    • I was pretty upset about last night’s game – about the only player who showed up and did their job was Hunter Brown, who continues to be the tough luck pitcher on the staff – but 6 innings and 1 run was very good
    • So, we hear that Joe Espada said that Yordan will not play in this series. One would assume if the Astros can squeeze out one win tonight or tomorrow afternoon that Yordan would then also sit out the Guradindians series. If that series matters maybe (big maybe) he might appear for DH and PH duty. Let’s pray it does not.
    • There is something about this offense that is just so team oriented. They all hit as a team or they all choke as a team. Sometimes you wonder why the other pitcher throws them strikes at all.
    • When the game was close I did not understand why they held back the top three in the bullpen. The “B” team let the game get away. You can say you want to bring them in when you are winning the next two games but who knows if that was the best chance they had to win a game.
    • Framber – keep doing what you have been doing and hopefully the team will decide to hit again.

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    • If the Astros put up a few runs early and Framber has 15th win stuff going and the veteran pen guys close the door, then Joe will look pretty good tonight. If Joe does not end up looking good tonight, well then I’m probably going to avoid watching Wednesday’s game.

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  8. I’m pleasantly surprised. I was watching the game off an on and was thinking here we go again but they came through. It’s great that they can now rest their players who probably need a break. What’s interesting is who will be our opponent? It could be one of four but there’s time to get ready for whomever. CONGRATULATIONS to our Astros! I am one that had them counted out at times but I guess it’s true that they have the heart of a champion.

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  9. As I’ve said before, I wrote the Astros off in June. So they have far exceeded my expectations. Anything that comes now would be a bonus to me. And as multiple players said last night, this might be the most special Astro group they’ve played with. This often frustrating batch of baseball players has survived. A whole lot of others have come and gone in 2024. Collectively, they’ve beaten a lot of obstacles. And Joe Espada will continue to take criticism, probably next time the Astros lose a game. But any manager, veteran or rookie, able to maneuver through all that Joe has been through, deserves recognition. So many other clubs would have folded up months ago.

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  10. The increase in pitcher velocity has changed this game so much. It’s a different sport in some regards. The game seems so much more tied into streaks by both teams and players than steady seasons from people like Lance Berkman or Jeff Bagwell. The increase in strikeouts and walks both have turned every start into a 5 or 6 inning affair.

    Framber is a throwback and we are lucky to have him. What does that mean for the future and him in an Astros uniform I don’t know.

    If you told me this team would lose Javier for the year, that Garcia and McCullers would not make their expected return, they would lose Urquidy, they would lose France for the year, that Chas would disappear, that JV would make 16 starts and stink in most of them, that Tucker plays around 80 games, I would have predicted we would sink. And it started that way. But baseball is a different game today. And they found the pitchers. Every time Brown went and got a reliever that was released by someone else I sighed. But almost every time he has been right.

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  11. The Pacific Coast League Championship series continues with game 2 in Sugarland tonight. It is a best of three game series and the Space Cowboys won Game 1 yesterday, 14-2 behind the pitching of AJ Blubaugh and 14 hits by the offense. Ryan Gusto is the starting pitcher for Sugarland this evening at 7:05.

    The winner of the PCL plays a 1-game, winner-take-all AAA Championship game on Saturday against the International League Champion in Las Vegas.

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