Astros 2024: If they make it, then what?

IF the Astros make the playoffs in 2024 – then what?  We must emphasize the word IF here because the Astros have not clinched the AL West. They are in excellent shape at 5 games up on Seattle, with 10 games to go for both teams. This is the old – if they go 5-5, the Mariners have to go 10-0. If they go 4-6 the Mariners have to go 9-1. And, of course, if the Astros sweep the three-game series with the Mariners next weekend, they could lose their other seven games and still win the division.

But getting back to the premise, what can we expect if the Astros do make the playoffs? The fans are not used to the team falling out early. In the last seven consecutive seasons, they have won 2 World Championships (2017 and 2022), twice went to the World Series and lost (2019 – Nats in 7 games, 2021 – Braves in 6 games), and the other three times lost in the ALCS, just short of the WS (2018 – Red Sox in 5 games, 2020 – Rays in 7 games, 2023 – Rangers in 7 games). No AL team has gone to the ALCS more times in a row, and only the Braves (8 times) have had more consecutive appearances in the NLCS.

IF the Astros make it, they will likely not receive a bye through the Wild Card round as they are trailing the Yankees by 7 games and the Guardindians by 5.5 games. Their first-round opponent in the Wild Card round is presently the Twins, though it could be the Royals (1.5 games ahead of the Twins), the Tigers (0.5 games behind the Twins) or even the Mariners (3 games behind the Twins).

The Astros have good recent playoff success against the Twins (Swept in the 2020 WC) and the Mariners (Swept in the 2022 ALDS). They have not played the Royals in the playoffs since they lost to them in the 2015 ALDS. But the Astros did just sweep KC in a four-game series, three weeks ago. The Tigers and Astros have never met in the playoffs, but this season did take 4 of 6 games from them.

It should be noted that the Mariners (4-6) and the Twins (2-4) lead the season series this year against the Astros – though the ‘Stros could catch and pass the Mariners with a sweep.

What are the critical items for the Astros IF they head into the playoffs?

  1. The Wild Card is a very short crap shoot. If a team is hot for two games – their opponent is done. On the plus side, the Astros have a good recent history with Wild Card – taking the single game sudden death playoff in 2015 from the beloved Yankees (where is my sarcasm font) and sweeping two from the Twins in 2020. On the negative side, just a slight gyration in the universe can bury you before you realize it…which leads us to item two.
  2. The elephant question in the room this season (as opposed to the Martin Maldonado and Jose Abreu questions in the 2023 playoffs) is the Justin Verlander question. Should the guy who has all the relevant experience in the world but recently is the Astros’ fifth or sixth best starter start in a 3-game series? Tough question.
  3. The Astros’ offense seems to sink against top pitching and flourish against worst starting pitching or against worse bullpens when the topflight starters leave the game. When you get to the playoffs, you are almost only facing topflight pitching.
  4. Along those lines, they really need in the playoffs for a couple of their top five hitters, plus another to get on a roll. The Yordan Alvarez / Jeremy Pena performance in 2022 comes to mind.
  5. Ryan Pressly circa 2022 would be a nice addition to the bullpen right around now.
  6. The bullpen has been a bit shaky lately. The starters have been very good at holding the opposition down, but the bullpen has suddenly been a lot more hittable. The plus side in the playoffs is that the bullpen does get more frequent rest with travel days.
  7. The thing that hangs in all our minds is ….does experience matter? There is no team with more playoff experience than the Astros right now. And in watching their success it is easy to see opponents with lesser experience falter at key moments. Can they hang their hats on that this time around?

Time will tell.

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32 responses to “Astros 2024: If they make it, then what?”

  1. Yes, experience matters. But it only goes so far.

    Item #3 is the reason why I’m predicting the Stros will moonwalk their way into the playoffs and win the WC series. But my money is saying (not that I bet on any sports games because I think they are ALL rigged) they will lose in the Divisional round.

    Not that I care much. Just bread and circuses to keep the masses distracted and placated so they don’t rise up and slaughter the filthy, rich elitist overlords.

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  4. Assuming the Astros go to the post season, they’ll be playing in a wild card series, unless they happen to reel off a batch of wins in a row and get some help too.

    The calendar say October 1, 2, 3. At home. Sounds easy, but win the first two with a fully rested pitching staff using Framber and Brown to start.

    The division round would begin on the road for the Astros, with games scheduled for October 5, 7, 9, 10, 12. Games three and four would be at home. That series is almost a vacation. And it allows a whole lot of flexibility as to how the pitching staff gets used. The pitching staff that will probably include Forrest Whitley.

    Yes, we’ve got to get some important hits, but guys on the mound can work with this schedule.

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  5. The umpiring gets worse all the time. Even last night both teams were subjected to calls that had no consistency. The Jake strike out stuck most in my mind. He told a ball just off the inside of the plate to run the count full and then got rung up on a ball that was considerable further off the plate. There is no way for a hitter to anticipate a contradiction like that. Singleton got a break in the 8th. Otherwise, we might have lost in the 14th.

    I wonder if the MLB Umpire School still has a long waiting list of applicants. Or maybe it’s no longer the appealing career it once was. Our umps don’t seem to be as smart as they once were. They certainly don’t have a sense of humor. When Jose took his shoe off, was that determined to be a “showing up the ump” infraction? It was the only quick decision of the night.

    But man, I don’t understand how four allegedly professional guys can’t come to a consensus on controversial plays and quickly move the game along. We can do it at home. And it seems the men in blue just don’t have any real pride in getting calls right at this point. One of these days soon we’re going to have a real mess on the field in a playoff game with a dozen camera angles on it. Maybe that’s what it will take to get clean games.

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  6. I’m sorry guys. It’s pretty obvious that my eyes are getting worse. You won’t be seeing me driving on the freeway in Houston when visiting. Here, the jeep will get me around the 19 mile island loop and I do remember where the pot holes are. Life is a bit more simple here.

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  7. Thoughts

    • Shohei Ohtani had an OK day yesterday 6 for 6, 3 home runs, 2 SBs, 4 runs and 10 RBIs. As I said to my son, Ohtani only drove in half of his team’s runs, while Singleton drove in 2/3 of his team’s. Advantage Jon.
    • Yeah – Singleton could easily have been rung up yesterday before his big hit.
    • I don’t mind if an umpire is calling balls slightly high or slightly one side or the other as strikes as long as he does it all the time the same way. Like Dave’s saying above we keep seeing a lot of inconsistency which drives hitters and pitchers nutty.
    • Kikuchi gave up the home run to the first guy and then worked very hard to keep the scorecard clean. Had plenty of traffic, but kept them off the plate and had the K pitch working. He gutted out the 6 innings and it was just what the team needed.
    • Heyward is not great at the bat, but man he is a really good fielder – his throw the other night and then his catch to end last night’s game.
    • Neris and Abreu kept the game tied – Hader slammed the door after the Astros took the lead.
    • Even though Singleton was lucky not to be called out – he did a nice job of going the other way to left center for the double that won the game
    • The team struggled with getting the big hit until they did, but they kept plenty of traffic and drew more walks than normal – I hope that continues
    • Missed Altuve last night – but they won and the magic number is down to 5 with 9 games to go.

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  8. Big game tonight in that Verlander gets another shot at working his issues out. If he can’t own this game, then he might not have another chance to won a game this year.

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  9. When the Astros only played American League teams, we only saw bad AL umpires. Now that we play every team, we also get to see bad NL umpires. Fortunately, the further into the playoffs we get, we get better umpires. There are a lot of umpires, which means that there are a lot of bad umpires.

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  10. If they make it, then the Astros would probably have at least two starters in their bullpen.

    If they make it, then the Astros would play their best position players every day. That would be a rare occurrence.

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  11. Regarding Ohtani and including Judge, why do the clubs continue to pitch to these guys. Granted, they are superstars but why continue to allow them to beat you?? Do to them as the clubs did to Bonds Jr. when he was chasing the homerun record… walk these guys! Unless MLB has ordered the teams to pitch to them under threat of fines.

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  13. The Astros got a lead, but Verlander didn’t have anything again tonight and it turned out closer than it should have. It’s a win! Tucker had a big night and so did Bregman.

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  14. I believe that JV’s comments after last nights game about coming back too soon from his neck injury is paving the way for what the Astros will have to decide for their playoff roster.

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    • Yes, he sounded resigned to the very real possibility he won’t be on that roster. He’s been graceful. I hope he comes back next year and pitches well for someone. And I can’t help wondering what that neck injury consists of.

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  15. Astros win 10-4. Yordan and Tuck each with 4 hits. Astros had 20 hits total. Blanco throws six innings, allowing 2 runs. Back of the bullpen gets complete night off.

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  16. I missed this yesterday. Taylor Scott is on the IL due to Thoracic spine strain. That might help explain his difficult outings recently. Seems the experts online suggest it’s a 4-16 week recovery process. That’s a loss.

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  17. It is amazing how many times in this series the Astros have had multiple runners on base and left them out there. Every inning today has been the same thing.

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  18. I feel you OP. I am aghast at how often this lineup comes up short with the bases juiced, especially with 1 out or less. With runs a premium in the playoffs this challenged lineup has to do better. Really Espada! You can’t pull Hader who’s not missing any bats until the damage is done? Sad…..

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  20. Washington did not hesitate to pull his P when he started giving up hits/walks. Why could Espada not do the same? Peña’s negative WPA gave me a moment of pause in that last AB. His inability to extend that AB was not surprising. But, it should have come to that perhaps.

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    • Andre, Pena has accumulated a 4.0 WAR on the season as this point. At 784K for the season, he’s one of the better bargains in MLB.

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  22. Sorry about the electric bill 1op.

    The Texans are a good young, talented team. Getting their butts kicked like they did today might a good thing for them long term.

    The Astros have won 7 of 10 and the magic number is now 2. Their closer has been extremely impressive in that role. He had a bad day.

    If there is any hand wringing to consider right now, it should probably be in regards to Yordan’s knee.

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  23. Thoughts

    • I will throw out a thought on the Texans – yes, getting their butts handed to them might have helped them – I think they were reading their press clippings a bit. But…. they need better coaching too – it has bothered me for a long time that Tunsil draws so many penalties as a top notch (supposed) left tackle. Even before now there were many times where I felt like he was getting away with jumping back early on pass plays. This year the league is emphasizing that, and he is still doing it – plus all these penalties lining up too far back of the lineman next to you. He still claims it’s not his fault. They needed to sit his butt down for a few series and see if his attitude would straighten up.
    • It is not good news that Tayler Scott may be out for the playoffs – up til this recent run (which is tied to his injury) he was a weapon out of the bullpen.
    • I have to pray that Yordan’s contusion is nothing like Tuckers contusion and I don’t think it is – but based on Yordan having a bad history on knee injuries – I am concerned.
    • Wish they had won yesterday – they should have. Then they could have won just won of their last 6 games and made the playoffs. However, this forces them to take care of business against the Mariners starting tonight. With Hunter, Framber and Kikuchi lined up they should be able to clinch it – would be nice to do that at home and line up the rotation for the Wild Card.

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    • Given the Astros training staff’ past performance, I sure hope Alvarez doesn’t have a compound fracture.

      They would probably miss it.

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      • Why do I keep picturing the scene from Monty Python and the Holy Grail where the knight is still trying to fight after losing one limb, two limbs, three limbs and of course four limbs. “Come back here and take what’s coming to you. I’ll bite your legs off!”

        The injury situation with the Astros is always a crap shoot – especially when we do not seem to get straight answers on anything.

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