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Justin Verlander will be in a potential Astros’ playoff rotation…But should he?

Note – I wrote most of this before Verlander’s recent loss – so it is not based on that outing.

First, here is a statement of fact.

My belief is that if Justin Verlander is still vertical and healthy and if the Astros make the playoffs, he will be in the smaller (likely 4 man) rotation. Will he pitch the first game of each playoff series if available? That’s a question for another post.

The front office and coaching staff that allowed Jose Abreu a year and a couple months of terrible leash, did not flinch when Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti struggled mightily and kept full speed forward when Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu looked bad early in 2024 are not going to turn away from Verlander just due to some lesser (for him) starts coming off the IL.

The Arguments for Justin Verlander Being in the Playoff Rotation

  • He is at the top career-wise of all active pitchers in the MLB. He’s won the pitching trifecta – the Rookie of the Year, one MVP, and three times earning the Cy Young. He will be a first ballot Hall of Fame inductee. He’s been top 20 for the MVP eight times and ten times top 10 in the Cy Young. He is a nine time All Star, not making it when he was a rookie and not making it twice when he ended up as top 5 in the Cy Young. He leads all active pitchers in WAR (82), wins (260), Innings Pitched (3392.1), Complete games (26), No-hitters (3), second in Ks (three behind Max Scherzer), and second in shutouts (9).
  • He has been in 24 playoff series in his career and is 17-12 with a 3.58 ERA. With the Astros he has been 10-7 with a 3.73 ERA. He famously has not been as good in the World Series as with the earlier rounds. With the Astros he has been 9-4 with a 3.33 ERA in ALDS and ALCS rounds of the playoffs.
  • There is nothing he has not seen in his career.
  • He has had a tendency before to struggle for a few games after coming off the IL and then figure it out.
  • He will by far have the freshest arm in the rotation, ending up around 100 innings for the regular season.

The Arguments Against Justin Verlander Being in the Playoff Rotation

  • He’s 41 years old and it is starting to show as he has struggled with both velocity and accuracy.
  • His ERA is 4.52 on the season. In his three starts since coming off the IL he is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA.
  • When you are looking at who he might replace in a 4-man playoff rotation, the options are:
    • Framber Valdez – 13-6 with a 3.11 ERA – it is not going to be him
    • Hunter Brown – 11-7 with a 3.55 ERA, but more importantly 11-5 with a 2.84 ERA in his last 139.1 innings since mid-April. It is not going to be him.
    • Yusei Kikuchi – 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his 6 starts since his trade from the Toronto Blue Jays. Not likely him.
    • Spencer Arrighetti – 7-11 with a 4.63 ERA, but a strikeout machine lately after a poor start to his MLB career
    • Ronel Blanco – 10-6 with a 3.03 ERA, but 1-3 with a 4.17 ERA in his last 9 starts

The most likely result here is that the Astros at least pencil in a starting rotation of Valdez, Brown, Kikuchi and Verlander in the playoffs. Dana Brown has already indicated that Blanco would be the most likely starter moving to the bullpen during the regular season when the team shifts to a 5-man rotation with days off.

This makes sense in that:

  • Blanco has the most bullpen experience of the 6 starters
  • He has been pushed beyond his previous inning max for the season
  • He has looked much more hittable lately, either being scouted better or just wearing down
  • He has no MLB playoff experience

The other likely candidate to head to the bullpen is Arrighetti.

This makes sense in that:

  • He has basically reached, in his last start, the most innings he’s ever thrown in a season
  • He is the youngest and least experienced starter of the bunch.
  • This includes obviously, no MLB playoff experience
  • He has been good, but not as good as the other pitchers being considered
  • He has quite a bit of relief experience in both college and the minors.

Hopefully, Verlander figures things out in his next four or five starts, and this question will go away. What the team might do if he does not improve down the stretch could be fascinating. They just struggled with holding onto Jose Abreu in a starting role far beyond what his current stats warranted. Do they dare hold onto another player due to his back-of-the-ball card value?

 

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33 responses to “Justin Verlander will be in a potential Astros’ playoff rotation…But should he?”

    • Heck if Melton is finally becoming the guy Dana Brown keeps saying he is, that sure makes the outfield a better place for the Astros, hopefully in 2025.

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  2. Verlander walked the first three guys in the first inning on Monday for the first time in his career, with little velocity, bad location and bad umpiring. He got out of the inning with just two runs scoring and then labored, coming up an unfortunate pop up short of getting five innings in without anymore damage. I like to think, as long as he’s healthy, he’ll figure a couple of things out between now and the end of the regular season. I still hesitate to talk about the post season as a given after all this club has been through.

    If Spencer Arrighetti somehow pitches in September as he did in August, it’ll give us more to talk about. But right now, my only hope for Arrighetti is that he gives us a good start tonight.

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  3. Arrigetti is a rookie, but he is so impressive. I have a hard time placing Verlander in front of him, unless he starts givings the Astros significant quality starts. Please consider the vigor and quality this rookie continues to show instead of this Bagwell (look at the back of his baseball card crap).

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  4. First, lets focus on not just getting to the playoffs but closing that gap and ending up with first round bye.

    Let’s see how Verlander does for September. The team isn’t going to say much because they are also waiting to see how his September goes. I wouldn’t be surprised, if it doesn’t go well, the fall guy will be a “slowed” recovery from this “neck” issue that ends up back on the IL before the playoffs start.

    If he is healthy and pitches well, I can’t see him being left out of the rotation. Kikuchi and Arrighetti might be mixed and matched based on the opponent, for example, the Yankees have a losing record against left handed starters this year, so if they get a series with NY, Arrighetti might be in the BP for that one. Get the Orioles, could go the other way. Kikuchi definitely offers them an upgraded left handed option for the BP over Ferguson though. Might just end up a series by series call.

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  5. The trend is starters going fewer innings and higher bullpen usage in the playoffs. It would be nice to see an ace like Verlander take you into the 8th inning with a lead, but it’s becoming less common. As others pointed out, although his starts haven’t be smooth he has battled out of some tough situations. Having six possible options for postseason starts is a luxury. Let’s see how he looks the last week of the season before we start slotting guys in ahead of him.

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  8. Good morning!

    “Verlander, in or out”? Dan, I don’t know how you were able to organize such an illustration last night of why Verlander is still an essential part of a healthy and effective Astro rotation as we make our way through September. And I don’t know why you decided to use young Spencer as your laboratory specimen. That was mean.

    Spencer Arrighetti showed us just how fickle success can be in the big leagues. I hope he just had a flat out bad night. I hope he was not running on adrenaline all through August. I hope he was not tipping his pitches. I hope having Bagwell lurking around has not put this group into a funk. I hope the Tucker drama has not created a further distraction in the clubhouse. We’ll see if the boys make any kind of a recovery today, like they typically do, or allow the Mariners yet another opportunity to make a race of this roller coaster ride.

    A couple of things other things crossed my mind last night. Neither Whitcomb nor Dezenzo have a real feel for the defensive side of the game. They are not ready to play a role in the post season at least certainly not as defensive replacements. How could they be so bad defensively after playing the game all their lives? Jeremy Peña is officially in a defensive slump. He needs some kind of brain therapy. He’ll be alright. Early game today means a good nights sleep!

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    • Daveb

      When I wrote this tome – Spencer was coming off of 13+ innings of shutout ball giving up 5 hits total and had those 7 innings of no-hit ball in there. So apparently the baseball gods took pity on me and made him give up 6 hits and 9 run in 2/3 of an inning?

      I don’t think that is how this works. However, my thought was that once Verlander settles in that he would be a more consistent pitcher that Arrighetti and I still think that is true – especially when the playoffs come around.

      As far as fielding goes:

      • Whitcomb in the minors at AAA in 2024 played 3B (31 games), SS (games), 2B (18 games), LF (10 games), 1B (6 games), RF (1 game) and DH (13 games)
      • Dezenzo who missed time this year played 27 games (3B) and 9 games (1B) at mostly AA and AAA

      Dezenzo just has not had much time in the higher levels to develop his fielding and Whitcomb has been moved around a ton day to day in the minors. This may explain why they are not that sharp when they get here – they do not have a single position in Whitcomb’s case and Dezenzo just needs more time to develop in the field it seems to me. Tough to jump the majors and learn there.

      Pena maybe needs to go take grounders instead of doing extra takes on HEB or taqueria commercials?? He shows 6 errors in the last 15 games out of his 18 total and he has had another handful of ones that might have been. He’s played 136 of the 139 games this year – maybe a little mentally worn?

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      • I think in Pena’s case it is mental fatigue. It’s a long season. Would you believe me if I said that yesterday was only the fourth time Dubon has played SS this season? I know you all don’t like me criticizing Espada…but that’s on him. There were plenty of opportunities to play someone else at 1B that went to Dubon. Stupid.

        Remember that Bregman was drafted as a SS and moved to 3B. His first couple years were rough. I don’t know that either Whitcomb or Dezenzo will ever be a great player on defense, but with work they can get better. Speaking of 3B, Champman signed with SF for 6 years and $151M. It’s a little misleading as it replaces the two option years he had remaining on his deal, but he’ll be 37 at the end of the contract.

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      • Dan, couldn’t hang the loss on you. So far I’ve seen no indication that you have such powers. But it is ironic that your post coincided with Verlander walking the bases loaded on Monday and then somehow getting out of his mess alive, while our rookie had a similar if not more jarring first inning experience on Wednesday and could not recover. I keep saying that there is much more to come. It’s going to be a rocky trip through game 162.

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      • Arrighetti didn’t only have the body language of a pitcher unhinged, he was missing the strike zone by feet and not inches. At times it looked like he was trying to overthrow to get out of the mess, and the ball was just taking off. He threw way too may non-competitive pitches, making it easier on hitters to find his hittable pitches. It was a genuine mess. Hopefully he can put it behind him, but I don’t know how you can trust him in a playoff game. He had an August to remember, and it didn’t matter last night. He could have a rest of September to remember, and I don’t know that I still trust him to start game 4 of a 5 game set. I honestly would trust Blanco first.

        The future could be bright. The present is a topsy turvy. And the present is where we are competing. I don’t get a vote, but if I did, both JV and Blanco would be ahead of Arrighetti to go behind Framber, Hunter and Yusei.

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      • Looking at the MLB leaders at errors committed, Pena is fourth with 18 errors. The three above him are all shortstops with E. DeLaCruz leading with 27 errors committed.

        Nest Astro player with the most errors… Bregman with 9.

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    • Assuming good health, which can’t be assumed at this point, the Chapman deal is an indication that some club will likely give Alex Bregman at least a bit more than Chapman just signed for.

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    • Agree Dave, it looks like 151M just set the market on Bregman, unless there is what we expect, an offseason surgery. I’m thinking the Astros don’t budge on anything past the 5/125 mark, and I’m thinking Bregman ends up a Yankee or Met because of it. Both teams are set to lose big money names in Soto and Alonzo, both seem unlikely to resign, and both will look at a Bregman as a cheaper option to take the same place in the batting order and field a position that has been an eyesore for both franchises for some time.

      Given the other issues we have and where else we need to throw some money at, I think we will find out if Zach Dezenzo can be a big league third baseman the way we took a chance on Pena replacing Correa. As a guy that advocated for the resigning of Correa because I didn’t like Pena’s numbers or age, and have been proven wrong in that regard (that at least he is a big league SS even if he isn’t quite Correa), I’ll give Zach a shot. The Astros have much bigger fish to fry like trying to bring back Yusei, the JV problem, a Tucker extension, and maybe finding one more big league outfielder, that I think Bregman is as good as gone, unless Crane has said this is my window damnit lets just go be the biggest payroll out there.

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  12. How do you manage to win 4 games against a potential WC team and then lose 3 to a team that’s not even a .500 team? I don’t know how the season will end this year but in order to be competitive next year we need to make some changes, additions, and subtractions. Hopefully the A’s will help us out since we can’t seem to help ourselves.

    Can somebody explain to me why we are not looking to make a 1st baseman out of Alvarez? All I hear is how we can’t continue to play him in left because of his knees and then there’s the DH dilemma. I’m just perplexed. I feel sorry for Arrighetti from yesterday’s game. He’s still got good stuff and can be a good MOR pitcher. He’s a rookie so I’m sure he’ll pick up the pieces, learn and move on.

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    • Well one could argue that 1st base is harder on the knees than LF.

      He was signed as a 1B out of Cuba. He played some of his first season in the minors there. And then he was moved. I’m sure the Astros know why they moved him. The only thing I’ve been able to find about it was a scouting report that said “to take advantage of his athleticism the decision was made to move him to LF”, probably before the knees where an issue.

      I would prefer as a fan to just see him as a permanent DH. He seems to hit fine there, when most players hit less at DH than they do when they are playing the field (something about over thinking your last at bat?). When a dude is 250+ you are always worried about his knees, even when he runs the bases I have a panic attack.

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  13. When I see an outing like Hunter Brown’s this afternoon, I’m encouraged. The guy has grown so much in a season. He played the stoppers role today giving the team exactly what was needed. Unfortunately, no offense generated again. We really need Tucker to hit when he comes back. And we need someone else to get hot too. Let’s face it, the offense has not been very impressive all season. It could catch up to us.

    Bryan Abreu seems to have lost a bit of confidence at this point. With 69 appearances, he’s still leading the league in that category. Hopefully he’s not toast and will get the movement back on his pitches. He’s just not fooling enough people right now.

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  15. Good morning.

    During my first cup of coffee I was looking at Spencer Arrighetti stats, just briefly, because his situation is pretty simple, at least on the surface.

    On the optimistic side, based on what he accomplished in August, it’s fair to say that he’s got a lot of potential. And he has gone to the mound all season and started games for this team when all along the way, we desperately needed innings from our starters. But unfortunately, statistically anyway, August is his only good month.

    Overall Spencer has won seven games, with a remarkable (by anyones standards) ERA of 1.60 in those starts along with an equally shocking WHIP of 0.822.

    But just as remarkable are the stats in his 12 losses. He’s got a 9.83 ERA and a 1.987 WHIP in those games. I’ve never seen such a disparity in stats between wins and losses for a pitcher.

    So how do the Astros bottle the good Spencer? Does he tip pitches? Is he mentally not quite strong enough yet to handle misfortune? I don’t know what the answer might be, or more likely, what the answers are.

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