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Astros 2024: Heading into the home stretch

Six weeks from yesterday is the last game of the season for the Astros. Six weeks can mean a lot of things in a baseball season.

After the first six weeks of this season, the Astros were 17-25 in fourth place in the AL West and 5-1/2 games out of first place.

If you look at where the Astros went in the approximately six weeks from June 18 to July 31, they went 23-12, moved from 33-40 / 10 games to 56-52, and tied for first place.

So, what do these last six weeks look like for the Astros?

  • They play the second-place Mariners once—three games in Houston in the next-to-last series of the season.
  • The Astros have 39 games to go – 20 at home and 19 on the road.
  • They play 26 games (13 home/13 road) against teams with winning records. They only play 13 games (7 home/6 road) against teams under .500 (right now).
  • They have had terrific starting pitching lately and they are about to get a very experienced arm back as Justin Verlander returns to a spot in what will likely be a 6-man rotation.
  • The bullpen has been very good but will have to survive losing eighth-inning anchor Ryan Pressly to a sore back. Yes, he has struggled lately (reportedly pitching through that injury). But before those last four or five games, he was on a solid roll with 18 appearances and a 0.51 ERA.
  • The lineup continues to piece things together after losing Kyle Tucker to the worst shin contusion in the history of bruises. The challenge rose lately after an elephant fell asleep on Alex Bregman’s elbow. That’s my version of the story.
  • The team has been trying desperately to find some spark in their call-ups as Pedro Leon (who has done near nothing), Zach Dezenzo (did some good things followed by near nothing) and Shay Whitcomb (who had a great debut and a nothing second game) have found a spot here and there in the regular lineup.
  • Chas McCormick has been doing his blindfolded pinata best this season. He still has fewer RBIs (21) this year than he had HRs (22) last year.
  • And as brilliant as Framber Valdez (13-5, 3.20 ERA) has been lately, he is likely the third-best pitcher in the rotation behind Ronel Blanco (9-6, 2.89 ERA) and Hunter Brown, who has been 10-3 with a 2.32 ERA in his last 16 starts.

The bottom line is that the Astros have done a great job climbing out of a 10-game deficit they dug early on, and they need to continue playing that hard to hold onto the four-game lead they have starting Monday’s games.

 

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57 responses to “Astros 2024: Heading into the home stretch”

  1. “…an elephant fell asleep on Alex Bregman’s elbow. That’s my version of the story.”

    In my version, it was a donkey. Eating a bag of Doritos and cackling like a lunatic…..

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  3. Ninth inning walk-off homers from your 1B/C wipe out bad umpiring and bad ABs. This guy could be really special

    Astros manage another win with Kikuchi on the mound.

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  4. Not often you make that many errors in the field and still eke out a win. Yainer definitely needs to be groomed into the starting 1st baseman to keep his knees as healthy as possible long term. Caratini is quite capable behind the plate. We’ll just need a backup catcher next year.

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    • Caratini has struggled in the past as an everyday option. Does that mean he would now? Maybe, maybe not.

      I am sure Yainer is out there right now not because the Astros don’t trust Singleton, but because Victor is swinging a hot bat, and this is how you get both in the lineup. Yainer’s defense cost us 2 runs last night, but his bat did the talking in the end.

      I wouldn’t find a backup. I would find another Caratini for him to split time with. Instead of a starting catcher, a two headed monster that each plays between 70-80 games each.

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  5. Yainer is still working to improve his game behind the plate. First base will/would be a bigger challenge for him. I was surprised Singleton did not get the start last night against the righty, with Caratini behind the plate, Diaz at DH and Yordan in left. Maybe Yordan is sore. With Whitcomb at 3rd or Dezenzo at first, it’s already pretty clear that we’re compromising our defense. In the long run, we need Yainer to play everyday and first might be a once or twice a week home for him. And maybe with a lot of work down the road, and a full time catcher in the fold, Yainer finds a new home at first, but I don’t think he’ll ever be a good defensive option.

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  6. Bartender!

    I could live the rest of my life watching Yainer bombs and Blummer calling them.

    What a sloppy game. A win is a win. But defense almost cost us the game. Defense did cost the Red Sox the game. Neither starting pitcher was probably happy with the defensive mishaps. Yusei had a good chance of finishing that 6th inning but he just couldn’t rely on major leaguers making routine plays.

    Long term I could Yainer developing into an average 1B with enough reps. But his mobility there on the bag itself is limited. I am not sure he could have saved Caratini’s throw but he definitely could have gotten the out on Altuve’s.

    That brings us to the probably what will be an oft discussed topic. Here are the FA out there and their potential market value (according to sportrac) – 37 year old Goldschmidt (12.1M), 30 year old Alonzo (29.5M), 32 year old Bell (5.2M), 34 year old Walker (22.5M), 38 year old Carlos Santana (5.2M). And you know market values are under what the AAV on a contract will be. There will be competition for Alonzo and Walker, the two premium answers. The rest, they aren’t even out performing Jon Singleton.

    I can’t even think 1B is among the Astros biggest concern. I suspect they resign JV for one year. But can you depend on him to make 25 starts? It probably should be a hope, and not a plan. Garcia and McCullers also have to be treated with kid gloves as a hope and not a plan. Can’t depend on Javier for 2025, and France, you just don’t know, but the suspicion is he just caught the league by surprise anyway. Ideally, the Astros need TWO starting pitchers, and they need to fix their bullpen. And that’s before we even talk about third base, for a franchise that is already bursting at the seams with salaries.

    But you know how you fix 1B? By paying for another catcher, which would be much cheaper. And he is likely to outperform every single free agent on the 1B market offensively anyway.

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    • I’m not ready to turn Diaz into a 1B yet. It’s tougher to find a good C than someone to play 1B. It’s good to have that option and I’d have him working on fielding this offseason/spring, though. I’m not running the numbers again, but as of last week Diaz had the 3rd highest OPS among everyday catchers and would have had the 8th highest OPS among everyday 1B. He’s probably moved up both lists a little. The hitting is only part of the job of a catcher, though. Remember the year we traded away Ausmus because we had Mitch Meluskey ready to go. He posted an .888 OPS and was somehow only 5th in ROY voting…but the team was a disaster and finished 72-90. It’s the year Biggio tore his knee at MIL, but the team was already well out of it at that point. I blame Meluskey for a lot of that. He fought with veterans and didn’t help the team win games despite the hitting.

      We should thank Singleton for his service, but I don’t think he’s going to turn a corner this offseason. I’d be looking at other organizational depth charts and trying to find some 3B/LF/DH candidates who are blocked and could potentially be turned into 1B options. I’d have some of our prospects working there in winter ball as well, such as Luis Baez. I saw him last year in Fayetteville and don’t see him as an outfield prospect, but maybe he could be a serviceable 1B?

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      • All fair points. We probably agree that they won’t try and fix 1B in the free agent market as they just have bigger problems.

        Jon Singleton has performed as well as about half the teams in baseball have at 1B with his .234./.316/.362 line. That .362 is something in particular you want to upgrade, but where do you find the money to upgrade it?

        I think good scouting and trying to make a move externally for someone elses blocked prospect is a good plan. If someone is sitting on a prospect that can slug .400 that is blocked it would be the best move, cost controlled, but might be someone that has multiple offers for. If only Rhys Hoskins had grabbed and owned that Milwaukee job, someone like Tyler Black could have been that. I think the Brewers think he is their guy at the bag. Considering half the teams 1B stink as bad ours has, its going to be a sellers market if you have one of those.

        I would think Baez is years away. He is only 20 and the kind of BB/K ratios and strikeout rate that scares you at low levels. He’s played only 5 games at AA. He has power, athleticism, all the things you love to see, but he has not played above high A ball until this week and still struck out 231 times in 213 games.

        Interesting enough, Yuli Gurriel, who I assumed was retired, is hitting .300 with 12 HR playing for AAA Gwinnet Stripers, not to be confused with the Strippers, which used to be one of my favorite teams. At 40, Yuli is still swinging that bat.

        A creative solution would be great. In recent history this team hasn’t shown a terrible amount of creativity.

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  7. Thoughts

    • I was listening to AM 610 this morning (Seth and Sean) while I was driving and while I normally think these guys are sharp – I had a couple bones to pick – but I can’t call in – need to get to work. First, they were praising Kikuchi, but said they need him to go deeper in the games. By my count he threw 22 extra pitches due to the 4 errors behind him. That certainly would have taken him through 6 innings and a good shot at the 7th. The other complaint just made me laugh. Espada was talking about the Astros scoring the tying run in the 8th on Dubon’s single bringing in Chas. Espada was praising “Mac” and saying how everyone has been pulling him with his recent struggles. The guys on the radio thought Mac was a new nickname for Mauricio. I wanted to reach out and tell them that Mac was McCormick!
    • I was trying to picture the meltdown if the Astros pulled 4 errors behind Framber. This was an absolutely great outing by Kikuchi. He gave up that first run to the first batter and should have finished the 6th having let up that one run. But the big thing is he did not lose it and did not give up the game. In fact, he made a terrific defensive play (much better than the guys behind him) to cut down a runner at the plate. He deserved better than a no decision, but at least he did not get a loss.
    • Todd Kalas on the broadcast was quick to point out as Yainer’s walk off homer left the stadium that Yordan (who struck out on 3 straight pitches from Kenley Jansen) had said something to Yainer as he walked back to the dugout. After the game, Julia Morales asked Yainer what it was and he said that Yordan told him to watch his timing. Jensen was using what I would call a hesitation pitch – starting his motion and pausing in the middle of it and then coming through. Yainer stayed back and moved into the first pitch (a fat 92 mph cutter up in the zone) and ended the game 400+ feet later.
    • Three of the errors were at least partially due to the calf scramble of positions trying to get some offense into the lineup – Whitcomb’s muff of a hard ground ball and two poor throws to first that a real 1B might have corralled for outs (though both Caratini and Altuve made baaaad throws.
    • I have some problems with umpires who are inconsistent, but rarely do I feel as I did last night that an umpire is deliberately going out of his way to punish one club. The home plate ump seemed to have it in for the Astros – I don’t know why.
    • So happy to see Dubon back to hitting in the clutch – huge two out hit after Chas went the other way for a bloop single and immediately got himself in scoring position with a big base steal.
    • I sure felt like Yordan’s slide into home plate at least touched a sliver of the plate before he was tagged.
    • When I saw Jensen on the mound in the 9th I thought – we are going to win this thing. He has struggled against us ever since the 2017 WS.

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    • And like I always like to say – they are leading by 6 games in the loss column. The Astros are 9-1 in their last 10 games (the one being a loss to the White Sox for heaven’s sake), while the M’s and Rangers are both 4-6. The Astros have created that 5 game lead over the M’s and 11 over the Rangers in the last 10 games.

      Our buddy Chip pointed out that if the Astros stay on the pace they have been running at they will go 80-46 after a 12-24 start. Can they hold to that? Tough row to hoe, but they have shown they can play with anyone.

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  9. This race is far from over, but if the Astros were to slump and finish 19-19 over the next 38 games, the M’s would need to go 23-13 to tie things up. The M’s do own a 6-4 advantage in games played this season against the Astros. It would not be good for my stomach, but the Stros and Mariners could potentially be playing a meaningful series beginning on September 23.

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  10. And in a weird piece of non-Astros news, the Cubs have waived Hector Neris. Apparently, he was about to hit a vesting option in appearances that would guarantee his salary for next season. The Cubs wanted to avoid it. He has not pitched well in the second half after a great start.

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  11. So why is Leon the lefty not starting in RF tonight instead of Chas “K” McCormick? My stupid detector is beeping……

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  12. Victor Caratini got on base four times last night. I would have liked to see his lefty bat in the line up tonight. I can only guess that Alvarez is not 100% and is not playing left field for that reason.

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  13. I think we saw enough lollygagging from you in left field last week, Chas. We really didn’t need to see you do it again in right!

    I’m getting seriously tired of this crap from McCormick…..

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  15. Astros claimed outfielder Ben Gamel off waivers from the Mets. Message to Chas?

    Seattle’s bullpen got pinned with another loss last night and the Astros lead is still 5.0 games(6 games up in the loss column,Dan). Rangers lost to the Pirates.

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  18. I had written a really nice comment this morning and then the whole of our building downtown internet went up in smoke. Just got it back now.

    Thoughts

    • Ronel Blanco is reminding me a lot of Wade Miley (2019), where he was great for a big chunk of the season and then crashed towards the end. I do not know if it is the amount of innings or if the other teams are aware of his changeup now.
    • Last night was a frustrating winnable game, but it must be worse to be a Mariners fan where they had a great chance to gain ground and blew a lead again
    • I can’t wait to “see” JV back today. Well, I’m at work – you guys will have to be my eyes on this one.
    • Meyers with another great athletic catch last night.
    • Whitcomb with more good at bats, including one so hard it stuck in the fence and like to see a young guy walking instead of striking out
    • Can’t really get mad at Ort for the game winning home run. Blanco gave up 5 runs in 3.2 innings. The Bullpen gave up the one run in 5.1 IP. You really can’t ask for more than that.
    • I sure love to see Yainer square one up – they just fly.
    • The team did a good job to jump back into this game. Singleton (who I call One Tonne) hit a laser to tie it up.
    • Bregman back in the lineup as a DH today – I’m guessing his elbow is not letting him throw from 3B. Altuve not playing today – have the Caratini at C and Diaz at 1B again today.

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  25. Verlander looks good on the mound, but he isn’t locating his pitches. He’ll be out of this game very early. Hopefully the bullpen can pick him up and his next start will be better.

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  27. Will be thrilled to get Tuck back so Espada can move JP out of the cleanup spot. Hits to many FC that does not get the job done effectively. He might move a man over from 2nd but even if he beats out the throw to 1st there is not much hitting behind him to make a difference most times.

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  34. Good morning. Like some, I was a bit dubious when Alex Bregman told us he slept on his elbow wrong. But that really does not matter at this point, other than once again having the reenforcement the Astros as an organization really can’t be trusted to share factual information. There are gremlins out there.

    Now though, it gets tougher to put a solid team on the field. With Yordan in left, Yainer at first and Whitcomb at third, we become a rather compromised defensive unit. I think we’ll see some bunts down the third base line. But we’re back on the road again too. Hopefully Alvarez will continue to hit away from Minute Maid, as he has all year. And Verlander could not have had much more of an encouraging first start in over two months. I worry that the Astros might enter free fall, but the Mariners have seemingly already beaten us to that distinction.

    It’s going to be a grind to get through these last 37 regular season games. But I think a .500 record will get the job done. What a remarkable, mine field of a season!

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    • I think at this stage the defense is much under-represented.

      If we go back to the first loss in the series how does it go if Singleton makes both those plays in the 1st inning? The grounder he pretty much over extended and had it hit his arm, so it was a double whammy in that he doesn’t get the out AND he slowed the ball, allowing Duran to do what Duran does (if you think I was looking for a spot to say Duran twice, guilty as charged), take an extra base. The line drive, that was a little more of the “only gold glovers make that play” variety but man if he had….

      When your offense is hampered by guys just not hitting and missing two of your big bats in Tucker and Bregman, you got to make plays. You aren’t going to score a lot, you can’t have defense giving away the bag. Now, Singleton “made up” for it with the two run shot, but then proceeded to strike out 3 times in a row.

      At this point Yuli is hitting .294 with a .381 OBP at AAA in a not so small sample, and I am sure he still gets around the bag. I’m a fan of nostalgia, and it’s not like we have someone with the job “locked down.” I don’t know why this hasn’t been discussed in the media. Maybe I’m just the crazy one. We could use that steadying presence 3-4 times a week.

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      • I don’t think Yuli would be any worse offensively than Dubon and he was always very good defensively. That may sound like a shot at Dubon, he’s been great as a super-sub and gets exposed when he plays more. He’s been incredibly valuable for this team despite a .284 OBP.

        Yesterday’s game was another frustrating one. They failed to take advantage of the slow thrower and made quick outs. Caratini decided not to run out a ball to first where Criswell got a late break covering. Meyers got thrown out on a really nice play by their SS…but it looked to me like he could have beat it out with a little hustle. We had to watch Cabbage hit. The Red Sox aren’t a bad team. The problem is we’re going to play 4 @BAL, 3 @PHI, 4 with KC at home, and then we get a less murderous stretch. That’s concerning.

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      • “We had to watch Cabbage hit.”

        I didn’t see him hit anything. Maybe he hit the water cooler when he got back to the dugout. But I missed it.

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    • Was actually popping on the site to say it seems all but a done deal, I’ve seen it on multiple sites now. What he has been from start of July forward led to his release, it seems low risk since it’s prorated minimum, but I guess the risk is he blows 3 games before you let him go. Can’t have that this time of the year.

      Maybe early they will use him in non-leverage spots until they see where he is velo/spin rate wise. Maybe it’s mechanical, maybe its pitch selection, or maybe it’s just good old fashioned decline.

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      • Neris would be available for the 1.3 months, plus the playoffs, if needed. He would cost the Astros about $ 200,000 for all that time, with the Cubs paying all the rest of his $9 million salary. No other costs involved.

        Dubin, Scott and Martinez have been giving up runs lately and Pressly is out for a couple of weeks. Not bad to get playoff experienced reliever for minimal cost and no loss of prospects as insurance.

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  37. Fuax national game tonight. Probably won’t even watch. Tired of watching bad baseball. Especially on a sh__ network.

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