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Astros 2024 – It Takes Three To Tango?

As a friend of the blog, Daveb, pointed out recently, the Astros, since June 18,has turned a 10-game deficit to the Seattle Mariners into a 3-game lead. The Astros have been playing better in the last couple months, but they certainly have been helped by how poorly the M’s have been playing over that time. In addition, the other team that would have been considered a threat, the defending champion Texas Rangers, went from 2-1/2 games back on July 25 to 10 games back today.

So, what have the last few months looked like for these last couple of months?

Astros

  • June 18 33-40 and ten games out
  • Since June 18 – 32-15 and on August 16 – three games up
  • Month of June – 17-8 – 136 runs scored (5.44 runs per game) – 94 runs allowed (3.75 per game)
  • Month of July – 14-11 – 114 runs scored (4.56 runs per game) -101 runs allowed (4.04 per game)
  • Month of Aug – 9-3 – 51 runs scored (4.25 runs per game) – 33 runs allowed (2.75 per game)

Mariners

  • June 18 – 44-31 and ten games up
  • Since June 18 – 19-28 and on August 16 – three games out
  • Month of June -15-12 – 116 runs scored (4.30 runs per game) –104 runs allowed (3.85 per game)
  • Month of July – 10-14 – 99 runs scored (4.13 runs per game) – 84 runs allowed (3.5 per game)
  • Month of Aug – 6-6 – 50 runs scored (4.17 runs per game) – 47 runs allowed (3.92 per game)

Rangers

  • June 18 – 33-40 and ten games out
  • Since June 18 – 23-26 and on August 16 – ten games out
  • Month of June -11-16 – 106 runs scored (3.93 runs per game) –111 runs allowed (4.11 per game)
  • Month of July – 14-11 – 103 runs scored (4.12 runs per game) – 106 runs allowed (4.24 per game)
  • Month of Aug – 4-9 – 60 runs scored (4.62 runs per game) – 79 runs allowed (6.08 per game)

For the season….

  • The Astros are seventh in the AL with 4.61 Runs scored per game
  • The Astros pitching are fourth in the AL in allowing 4.08 Runs per game
  • The Mariners are 13th in the AL at 3.94 Runs scored per game
  • The Mariners pitching are first in the AL in allowing 3.75 Runs per game
  • The Rangers are eighth in the AL with 4.26 Runs scored per game
  • The Rangers pitching are tenth in the AL in allowing 4.52 Runs per game

So, what are we seeing here?

Astros

The Astros’ great June came on the back of pitching that matched the M’s best for the Season, 3.75 runs per game allowed, and their best hitting run of the season, about a run higher than their norm. July was an average month with a 56-win percentage, backed up by a month of hitting and pitching that matched their average for the season. Now there is no doubt how they have gone on their recent August run of 9-3. Their offense is down .44 runs per game this month, but their pitching on the back of adding Yusei Kikuchi to the rotation has been a brilliant 2.75 runs allowed per game, which has fueled the 8-game winning streak they take into games on Friday.

They are hoping that adding Justin Verlander to a 6-man rotation in the next week and possibly (with a capital P) adding Kyle Tucker to the lineup sometime before the playoffs will help them sustain their steady rise up the standings.

Mariners

The Mariners had a solid June, fueled by continuing a good gap between their runs scored vs. their runs allowed, but lost ground to the Astros, who finished the month on a 9-1 run. In July, they had a losing record despite outscoring the opposition. This down month was fueled by a 1-7 record in one run games in July. Their 6-6 record in August mirrors how they are basically scoring at a rate matching their runs allowed.

The Mariners have not seen an offensive bump from trading for Justin Turner and Randy Arozarena but hope that Julio Rodriguez‘s return off the IL will help them. But has watching the Astros surge past them taken the wind out of their sails a bit?

Rangers

The Rangers had a slide in June, but turned it around for most of the month of July to cut that deficit to 2-1/2 on the 25th. In August, the Rangers’ pitching was imploding as injuries to Max Scherzer and Nathan Eovaldi were added to an underperforming rotation.

The Rangers are done. They are a lot closer to last place in the AL West than the top.

Well, there you have it. The Astros have their future in their hands. The rest of the season should be a lot of fun.  

 

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42 responses to “Astros 2024 – It Takes Three To Tango?”

  1. All three of these teams lost on Friday so they stayed the same in the standings.

    Hard to explain losing to the 29-93 ChiSox though. I guess both teams were regressing to the mean, as they say.

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  4. I’ll believe Bregman and the Astros when he takes third base on Monday night. Is there any reason not to be dubious?

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  5. Dan, I can’t count out the Rangers yet. I wouldn’t put any bets on them, mostly because I don’t have money to bet.

    Most likely, the team that wins the AL West is going to be the #3 seed in the AL and will get thrown into the “Wild Card Round”. You reap what you sow.

    I still think the Astros have been admirable in overcoming devastating injuries to their pitching staff. The Rangers have also had the same kind of injuries, but are 10 games back of Houston.

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    • I know I should not count the Rangers out, but one thing hurting them other than putting multiple Cy Young types on the IL for the season is that they don’t play the team they supposedly are chasing – the Astros – the last month and a half of the season. I guess on the plus side they have a series with the White Sox and two series against both the A’s and Angels.

      So, maybe I should not call them out yet – the Astros did make up 10 games in less calendar than that. It just does not feel like their year.

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  6. Thoughts

    • This is why baseball is such a crazy game – the least likely game for the Astros to lose or the White Sox to win – but there you are. Frustrating as the Ms and Rangers lost again. I will say the Crochet vs. Arrighetti matchup did not really favor the Astros.
    • Need Hunter and Framber to turn this series around quick
    • Every time we get on a roll like this – somebody else goes down – in this case a red hot Alex Bregman. As I texted my brother why couldn’t he sleep wrong on his elbow back when he was popping everything up?
    • And maybe Tucker is sleeping wrong on his shin every night for the last two plus months.
    • Sounds like Verlander will be back this week after feeling good with his 57 pitch effort the other night. That is good news.
    • And maybe Penn Murphee will be ready soon. OK he gave up 4 runs in his first rehab outing one inning with A+ Fayetteville – so maybe he needs just a little more work
    • The top of the lineup that looks so long and deep with Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, Tucker, Diaz – looks awfully shallow with Altuve, Alvarez and Diaz – especially on a night when Diaz strikes out 4 times. (Man, I am not sure I remember him striking out three times in a game).
    • Robert Jr. was a one-man wrecking crew for the Sox with 4 hits, 2 homers and 4 RBIs. He has been pretty bad this year, but was mentioned in a possible package with a Sox pitcher going to the Astros at a number of points this season.
    • As we thought – Aledmys Diaz gets released after a month of non-use to make way for Shay Whitcomb. Something tells me, we will see young Shay tonight.

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  7. I did not feel good going into last nights game. Back home, a day off, tough pitcher even though he’s been bad as of late, overall crappy competition, it just seemed to be the kind of game the Astros would not win.

    But I do think two wins will gain us another game on the M’s. Are Jake and the boys at the bottom up to it?

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  8. And by all means, get Whitcomb on the field. It would be nice for one of the AAA guys to come up and be a factor. Loperfido, Cabbage, Leon, Dezenzo, not much help from any of those guys.

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  10. What’s the over/under for the number of Astros strking out tonight? I have time to get a bet down. I’m taking the over.

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  11. The lineup behind Hunter Brown

    Altuve 2B

    Alvarez LF

    Diaz C

    Peña SS

    Singketon 1B

    Caratini DH

    Meyers Cf

    Whitcomb 3B

    Dubon RF

    Might be one of your more questionable defensive alignments

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  14. I tried to express some of the things you wrote in your #7 post Thursday Dave, but after comments disappeared several times I gave up trying. Don’t want these guys to despise home cooking and stay on track like they were on the road. They absolutely have to figure out hitting at home. Blum keeps noting Yordan being a tick off during his AB’s at home. It shows. Let’s see who steps up at the plate

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    • SCHN has a terrible satellite feed today. Missed Whitcomb’s double and the missed call. AT&T technology absolutely sucks. Not quite as bad as Boeing…..

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  16. Thoughts

    • It is the ultimate small sample, but really enjoyed Shay Whitcomb’s debut. His first time up totally fooled me – thought it was a can of corn to center – but had quite a motor to it. Ended up almost 400 ft away and started a three run rally. Patiently took a walk in the middle of a rally later. Then ripped a single up the middle to set up the last run. Both his hits were 100+ mph and were up the middle.
    • Hunter had an outing like the guy he copies – Verlander. Had some problems in the first and then settled down and was really tough the rest of the way. Loved him getting thru 7 innings – really helps the bullpen
    • Nice to see them score 6 runs without a home run, but they left a lot of ducks on the pond with 13 hits and 3 walks
    • You get 2 hits apiece from Altuve, Alvarez, Diaz, Caratini, Meyers and Whitcomb. Good base for a game
    • Abreu drove me crazy walking the worst hitter in a bad lineup to start the 8th, but settled down and got outs in a hurry. Bryan King had another good outing.
    • Enjoyed seeing the highlights of Caminiti again – not sure whether he or Correa had the biggest gun of an arm. Total tragedy he was not here to be taken into the Astros Hall of Fame. I used to drive by his house on the way to my in-laws in Pecan Grove and sometimes he’d be working in the garage. Glenn Davis lived in a house across the street from him. He ended up building a McMansion in the back of the subdivision.
    • Had no idea that Rene Cardenas – the other H of F inductee was the first Spanish language MLB announcer anywhere when he started with the Dodgers. Quite a legacy.

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  17. 7 hits and 4 tuns scored from the bottom 4 guys in the line up sealed the deal for the Astros last night.

    With Yordan on the rest list today, the line up is somewhat unrecognizable. We need those bottom of the line up guys to come through against a guy with very little ML experience.

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  18. Yordan snoozing. Bregman ailing. Tucker rehabbing. Altuve DH-ing. 3 Rookies in the line-up – two of which are hitting below the Mendoza line (as is our left fielder)?

    No pressure, Framber. Let’s do this!

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  19. So is Framber staring at this below Mendoza line heavy and wondering why him.

    Bregman is back DHing and leadoff – hopefully his elbow really is ok

    No Yordan

    No Altuve

    Meyers cleanup??

    Dezenzo, Leon and McCormick – all under (or way under) .200

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  21. Am I the only one who thinks McCormick needs to go to Sugarland for a while? I grimace every time I see him with a bat in his hands…..

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  22. SCHN SUCKS! Every time something happens in the game, their (^%$@#& stream cuts out! Is there anything out of Houston that isn’t f_____ up?

    Guess I’ll watch the opposing stream from here on this season. These losers at SCHN need to go back to high school and try again. F___ing LOSERS!

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  23. With the Mariners/Rangers oxygen starved for wins I suppose this series was as good a time as any for Espada to see if some of their challenged hitters might catch lightening in a bottle while giving days off. I confess it is a drag to watch. Yes Dan, Framber might feel distraught today watching this lineup get mugged at the plate. The P has to be stellar ensure they win.

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  25. Win a series, gain a game. Framber puts up an 82 pitch 7 inning performance and gives up nothing. Yanier hits an almost 3 run shot, lines a base hit into right that might have scored fast Pedro Leon and then finally said screw it, I’ll just hit a deeper one for the game winning dinger. Typical Astro win with maybe 3 regulars in the line up.

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  26. Thoughts

    • Found it interesting that they stretched Hunter to over 100 pitches on Saturday, but pulled the equally dominating Framber after 82 pitches on Sunday
    • I’m not sure which I believe less – That Bregman will come back in the Red Sox series or That Bregman actually hurt his elbow sleeping on it. It takes me back to The Moises Alou falling on his treadmill or Jeff Kent hurting himself washing his truck which ended up that he actually hurt himself falling while riding his motorcycle. Maybe Bregman hurt his elbow opening jars of salsa in a commercial.
    • On the radio they said people are razzing the kid for not interfering with the home run avoiding catch on Diaz’s fly ball in the first inning. Since the OF was reaching into the stands it supposedly would not have been interference. I just say – have you ever been out there when a long fly ball comes near you – it is not easy for us civilians to judge.
    • I don’t know why they at least did not try to score Leon on the Diaz single later in the game. Two outs – speedy runner – hey give it a shot I say.
    • The Altuve homer was a relief as it gave the Astros that two run lead – of course Diaz’s homer was great because it gave Framber the victory he deserved.
    • I will be excited to see Verlander back in the rotation Wednesday if that is when it happens. With all these games in a row against top notch competition – that 6th man in the rotation will come in handy I believe.
    • Tucker took actual BP on the weekend – whoopie. Wake me when he can move without a limp.

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    • The upside to pulling Framber after seven with a one run lead is that he doesn’t get the chance to implode. He lost a game last year at Anaheim, I believe, where he was carrying a no hitter into a similar situation. You’ll also recall his last start against Texas where he went into the ninth as well.

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  28. Thus far, the Astros are 12-4 since the trade deadline and 11-4 for the month of August.

    Valdez and Brown have been terrific since the AS break.

    The Astros have won all 3 of Kikuchi’s starts. This is going to be his first start against Boston in an Astros uniform.

    Verlander is due a start soon.

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  29. I’ve been busy this past weekend and did not notice this until today:  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/08/astros-place-ryan-pressly-on-15-day-injured-list.html

    Espada says Pressly had back soreness after his outing at Boston on 08/09 but “doesn’t think it’s serious.”  Have to wonder if his problem didn’t start on at Rangers on 08/05 since that is when he started his streak of four straight outings of giving up a run per inning.

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