Chip Bailey is the founder of the feast around here, and when he speaks out, I listen. He has a lot going on outside of sports these days, so his texts are usually news blips about the Astros with a few cryptic words. But yesterday, he dumped a couple of texts on me that were longer and seemed ripe for blog subject matter.
“Dan, there has been a steady decline since the Luhnow/Hinch years. Like them or not, agree with them or not, they were the real deal, and they had a team of people who knew what they were doing. I’ve often said the Astros are riding on their coattails (primarily Luhnow), and it now seems that Houston is becoming a wandering generality instead of a meaningful specific (h/t Zig Ziglar). They don’t have a plan, and they seem to have lost the necessary vision. Or maybe they have the vision but don’t have the integrators to carry it out and make it happen. I’m not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but either way, I’m not encouraged by what will happen this winter, whether or not they make a run in the playoffs.
I’m just rummaging through the current roster…Among others, Altuve, Pena, Bregman, Meyers, Tucker, Yordan, Chaz, Hunter, Ronel, Pressly, Javier, Framber, etc., came to the Astros under Luhnow. Then you start looking at the misfits who have come in since 2020. Not to mention some horrific drafts (although ’20 and ’21 were hindered a bit by MLB punishment). A lot of no-names in there, though…Anyway, you can build around Yordan and Altuve, but Bregman will be gone next year, and likely JV and others if they crash before October… It’s the Saints’ mediocrity going for it every year but with middling results.”
Just to explain a bit. Chip has been a long-time New Orleans Saints fan and has been suffering quite a while with his team being “stuck” in the middle. Not good enough to go all the way. Good enough to stick with it and not tear it down and rebuild. And his fear is that the Astros, after almost a decade of dominance, are about to bob along in no champ’s land.
Some thoughts here:
- There is no argument that this Renaissance in Astros baseball is tied – mostly – to what Jeff Luhnow and his troop of digital sports nerds did with the organization. Very little that is good here came from the short-term stays of James Click or Dana Brown.
- The question that will never be answered is: If Luhnow was still the GM, would the Astros have maintained an eternal, sustainable greatness? He would have had to adjust to the fact that he was no longer feeding the organization with top-of-the-round draft picks. He would have had to make some tough decisions with the core group as they faced free agency. He might have hit the wall on technological advantages for the team.
- As Chip states above, there does not seem to be a plan right now. The key to still having Luhnow here is that he always seemed to have a plan. Folks simplify things and say that the Astros won because they tanked, but that is a terrible simplification of what happened here. Some of their early draft picks worked. Some did not. But they seemed to have the plan to bring in young folks, whether from the draft or from the International free agency and supplement them with short term more costly talent at just the right time.
Top 30 Astro moves under GM Jeff Luhnow – ALL THINGS ASTROS (chipalatta.com)
Five critical items: Astros’ sustainability – ALL THINGS ASTROS (chipalatta.com)
- The one constant throughout the Astros’ tanking and then running to the top has been the owner, Jim Crane. He has made the decisions of who to put in charge of his team, including what looks like a very foolish few months of back-of-the-baseball-card tomfoolery under Jeff Bagwell, Reggie Jackson, and perhaps Craig Biggio. Hopefully, he has had enough of that fantasy trip and will back up the current regime as they change the team into something better. The hope is that GM Dana Brown, once he gets out from under some of the dead-weight contracts he is currently swallowing, will rework the team into one with a younger base and some true talent in the pipeline.
There is the old adage that one definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome. That is true for teams that have lived with a continuous bad history. The Astros are in a different spot where it seems like another definition of insanity is underway. Insanity can also be when you have a good thing going and then do things differently, expecting the same (good) outcome. The Astros feel like they are at a crossroads.
Hang on for what is coming next.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
21 responses to “Astros 2024: A message from Chip”
Test
LikeLike
Hey Dave – we are here and we can see at least the “Test” – sorry if you are having posting problems.
LikeLike
I think the best thing and the worst thing to ever happen to the Astro organization was Jeff Luhnow. He built a relative dynasty. It seems that Jim Crane had full trust in Luhnow and gave him the autonomy to build in his vision. He designed a think tank of like souls that helped him fashion a new kind of baseball operation. Unfortunately he ended up being his own worst enemy. He forgot the integrity of the game. And Jim Crane has not again trusted as he trusted Luhnow.
Crane made a good hire in James Click. A deliberate thinker with a solid resume, a problem solver, a guy that seemed to be considering what would happen with the Astros over the next five years and beyond. Unfortunately, Jim Crane also began to rely on his committee of former players. And he had Dusty Bakers ear too. Click performed, but it’s pretty obvious that he had the committee and the manager questioning his every move. Crane was not going to give full autonomy again. And James Click, unlike Dana Brown, was not prepared to answer to a Board of Directors, one that seems to have to this day decision making powers. And that’s why we find ourselves where we are right now.
To this day, the personnel decisions made immediately following the departure of James Click haunt this club. I believe we would have had stronger roster with further financial flexibility going into 2023 had Click still been at the helm. That six week period in the fall of 2022 has continued to impact the Astros throughout 2024. Even today we don’t have a qualified first baseman. We’ve traded away so many outfielders that at this point, we can’t find three guys to hit the baseball. I don’t know what will happen going forward, but I do not think we are prepared.
LikeLike
Only an fool will expect competence from a DEI hire like Brown. And once they burrow their way into an organization, the rot of incompetence spreads. And it’s almost impossible to get rid of them because they’re the “protected class”.
So I expect nothing good from the Astros until 2 or 3 years after they dump Brown on the trash heap where he belongs. And the so-called manager and the entire coaching staff.
Every damned one of them.
LikeLike
I kind of remember a set of comments – I think it was from OP – that mapped out moves that Click made that sent quite a few prospects away for questionable return. In my mind he will always be remembered for getting Yainer Diaz as a throw in on the Myles Straw for Phil Maton trade. Picking up Hector Neris for a reasonable amount. But also, the guy who signed Lance to a 5-year contract.
But those interim signings of Jose Abreu, Rafael Montero and Michael Brantley brought so little in return for the $$ – it is really hamstringing.
LikeLike
Wilyer Abreu is looking like a ML hitter playing left for the Red Sox with a 131 OPS+. He was included in the Velazquez trade. Chayce McDermott was given up for Henry Mancini. He’s done nothing to date. The Velazquez trade really turned out to be a stinker, as Dusty didn’t seem to eat the guy in the first place.
Hopefully 1OP can enlighten us further.
LikeLike
Ahem…..Dusty didn’t seem to “want” the guy in the first place.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Next season this org will see some quality P return to the mound. It’s more than a stretch to anticipate they will build a great lineup around that bevy of riches on the mound. With the state of affairs currently I’m not very optimistic but it’s to early to know for sure how things will go later.
LikeLike
I still see a shortage of pitching next year unless we make multiple outside acquisitions.
LikeLike
A shortage? How many P will be lost during off season are on expiring contracts?
LikeLike
Andre, as it stands right now, we have four starters, assuming Arrighetti can convince everyone that he’s capable and will deliver. It also assumes the four guys I’ve listed will go home at the end of the year healthy. And it would be premature to count on a healthy Garcia at this point. It’s a short list.
Brown
Blanco
Valdez
Arrighetti
With this group, a six man rotation probably makes good sense. And at present, I don’t think we can assume any guy from the minors is ready to take on a starters role. So we need at least four more starters, including a couple of guys prepared to move into the rotation at any point.
LikeLike
Or are on expiring contracts I meant
LikeLike
Kikuchi and Verlander will be free agents.
Urquidy, France and Javier are not likely ready until a ways into next season after surgery.
McCullers???
That is why we are really worried
LikeLike
I hate to say it but I think this run is over with. The bases were loaded THREE times with only 1 out and we recorded 5 K’s and a ground out. We did get one run on a dinky infield hit by Pena. I’d give odds we won’t make the playoffs and I’m almost glad. You can’t be king of the hill forever especially when you make some of the stupid deals that have occurred. Oh and this Ferguson guy ain’t worth a tinker’s damn (along with Pressley 7 blown saves this year).
Don’t sign Bregman, Let JV move on. Start drafting some pitching help. Yes our offense is down right offensive. I’d try to sign Kikuchi but not for a big contract amount. We’re probably stuck with Javier, LMJ, Hader, and Pressley. Love to trade any of them but it won’t happen.
You’ve got Tucker, Valdez and Urquidy becoming free agents after the 2025 season. I can’t see us signing all to LT contracts. In fact if things look bleak next year I’d trade them and start the rebuilding process.
I agree that when Luhnow was fired and Click was not signed that was the beginning of the end. We can amble on , hoping to catch fire or try to regroup and put a PLAN in play. I just don’t see a lot of positives out there but maybe I’m wrong.
LikeLike
Good morning!
This might be the year an 81 and 81 record wins the West. But I don’t have any desire to watch the Astros flail their way through August and September with that hope. There is no crime in failing, the unprecedented injuries to a deep pitching staff decimated the club. Having to pay two released players attached to significant bad contracts did not help either. It had to be done though. The 90 million deal for a closer handcuffed us. There was no money left to buy more pitching. There was little talent to trade for pitching, even rental pitching. But organizationally we set ourselves up for further failure. Someone in the room could have said we can’t afford to be buyers. They could have looked around and realized that one pitcher would not be enough. And the loss of three prospects could further compromise the ability to compete in 2025. Looking ahead, we are solid behind the plate in 2025. I guess we’re solid at second base, although an aging Altuve is not hitting. Our DH is not hitting at home. We don’t have another standout bat in the line up today. And we can’t count on Tucker, maybe not for the season. We have a weak outfield. We don’t have a first baseman.
Our rotation remains razor thin. Verlander should help, but the club has convinced us to be cynics in regard to injury reports and anticipated return dates. Do they keep sending Blanco out for 5 more innings?
And then our pen. We’re 4-8 now in extra innings. Our much hyped 7,8,9 shut down pen does not work well enough. We’ve lost too many games with those guys. I keep wondering why Bryan Abreu has to pitch the 7th inning. I’d rather someone else throw a good inning or lose the game early and save Abreu to take the mound in the 10th inning with a man on second base. Instead we get Caleb Ferguson, vigorously shaking off Yainer Diaz?
My point is this. How do we fix this club for 2025? I don’t think we do. There are too many things to fix in one winter.
LikeLike
That was a disappointing game – again – after two disappointments to end the previous series. Will probably write at lunch today or start watching cricket and rugby instead.
LikeLiked by 1 person
A newbie coming up
Astros To Select Zach Dezenzo – MLB Trade Rumors
So who is going down? Cabbage probably unless they send Leon down
LikeLiked by 1 person
Before you write a new one, I want to put in my two cents.
The Astros are a middle of the pack team. They aren’t morons or losers, but an average team in the MLB picture. This is reflected in their record and reflected in their stats.
Their pitching and hitting stats are all bunched in the middle of the pack compared to the other teams, with most hovering just north or south of the #15 ranking.
But there are two glaring stats that reflect a real change in this team from Astros teams of the last 8 or nine years. The Astros were #3 in batting average in MLB when I checked yesterday morning. But that is nullified by the Astros ranking in walks. They are # 27 in walks, which is absolutely the opposite of where they have been in past seasons. The lack of walks takes their #3 ranking In BA and turns their OBP into a middle of the pack #15, whereas they were always at the top in OBP during their sweet run of success.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Yeah, I so wanted Will Wagner to find a place on this team for that very reason. At this point in his development, he’s got great on base skills. I’ll be watching from afar to see if those skills translate once he begins his MLB career.
LikeLike
Espada is on record as saying that he wants the hitters to be aggressive. Thus, the lack of walks.
LikeLike
This team appears to have very little, if anything left in the proverbial tank. ‘The run’ that propelled us back to the top of the division (alas, temporarily) was fed by a burst of youthful energy in the form of ‘Joey Astro’. That silly kid who actually believed he could catch anything hit out of the infield made everybody else play a little harder. Of course he struck out too much – he was a wide-eyed rookie! But his spark of enthusiasm spread throughout the dugout full of old for their years ‘it’s all about the business’ prima donnas. I just hope Zach Dezenzo can bring a fragment of that energy – and make the old geezers shake off the ‘don’t cares’ and care again like his pal Joey did.
LikeLiked by 1 person