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Astros 2024: Out of last place by the numbers

While waiting for the Astros to make a critical move or two at the trade deadline, we are taking a few minutes to revisit a post from April 19 of this season (based on numbers through April 17). The Astros were 6-14 and in fifth place in the division, yes, even trailing the Oakland A’s in the AL West.

What did we say about them then, and what has changed since? Here are the original points and the more recent look in italics….

  • Extra inning games – 0-2 record. The Astros continue their trend of screwing the pooch under the phantom runner runner rules (1-8 in 2023).
    • The Astros are 4-7 in extra innings or 4-5 since the original post was written. Better but not an area of strength.
  • One-run games—0-5 record. The Astros have done everything in their control to be bad in close games.
    • They are now 8-17 in one-run games or 8-12 since April 17. Still not good.
  • Home / Road – the good news is that they are actually better at home (4-9/ 31% wins) than on the road (2-5/ 28.6% wins). The bad news is they are almost equally putrid home or away.
    • Home – 30-22 or 26-13 since then. That is more like it. Road – 25-28 or 23-23 since the post was written. OK, but they can improve.
  • Home/Road—It is fascinating that a team that has won approximately 30% of its games both at home and away could have such a disparity in scoring. They are 4-9 at home but have outscored the opposition 62-59. Meanwhile, they are 2-5 on the road and have been slaughtered in the scoring department 25-51.
    • Home – They have outscored the opponents 263-201 for the season or 201-142 since April 17. Pretty stout. Road – have been outscored 229-240 overall, but since April 17, have outscored the opponents 204-189 on the road. That is a good area of improvement.
  • The Astros bullpen is 1 for 7 in save opportunities.
    • They have saved 25 of 39 opportunities overall but have been much better at 24 of 32 since the original post. (Note – Josh Hader has saved 20 of 21 opportunities)
  • In their 14 losses to date, they have lost eight games in which they held the lead at some point and 2 more in which they were tied at some point.
    • Since April 17, they’ve lost 36 games, 14 when they had the lead and 2 where they were tied. Note – this has not been happening that often in the last month.
  • The Astros lead the AL with 163 runners left on base, 20 more than the Texas Rangers.
    • The Astros currently have left on the seventh most runners – 704, which is 46 less than the Red Sox. So, they have improved in this area, but only back to mediocrity.
  • As a team – the Astros pitching staff has the worst ERA (5.24) in the AL, more than half a run behind the 14th ranked Toronto Blue Jays.
    • The Astros have improved a lot since that poor beginning. They are now 8th in the AL with a 4.01 ERA.
  • The staff is an equal opportunity abuser of the ERA. The starters are 14th out of 15 in the AL with a 5.05 ERA while the relievers have squeaked up into the 13th spot in the AL with a 5.47 ERA.
    • The improvement has been greater on the reliever side – as they are now fifth in the AL with a 3.69 ERA. The starters are better but only up to tenth in the AL at a 4.23 ERA, which is more than a run behind the league-leading Mariners. This matches what we have seen.
  • The hitting continues to be an enigma as the Astros are 1st in BA (.268), 2nd in OBP (.341), and T1st in OPS (.769) while hanging way down in the 7th spot in Runs/ game (4.35) more than 1.4 runs per game behind the league-leading Baltimore Orioles.
    • The Astros are still first in BA (.262), but they dropped to fourth in OBP (.320) and fifth in OPS (.740). This puts them fifth in runs scored (492), 47 behind the number one Yankees.
  • The Astros have that 1 save so far, which is two behind the three teams tied for twelfth with 3 (Rangers, White Sox, and Twins) in the AL. They are 9!!!!! behind the lead leading Yanks.
    • The team is up to 25 saves, which is 9th in the AL, and ties to only having the 10th most save opportunities.
  • The pitching staff has given up the most walks in the AL (86) to date and is tied for 12th with the Yanks with only 150 Ks on the season.
    • The team is still having problems with walks as they have given up 380, which is the third-most in the AL. On the other hand, they have improved markedly in striking out the opposition, as their 920 Ks are fourth-best in the AL.
  • The Astros have the most total bases (300) and are the toughest team to strike out (134 Ks) in the AL, but unsurprisingly, based on the eye test of their situational hitting, they are tied for last in the AL with 2 sacrifice flies.
    • The Astros are now down to fifth in total bases in the AL (1512). That may be an area where they miss Kyle Tucker a lot. They do continue to be good at avoiding Ks – they are second toughest in the league. After such a bad start, they are now fourth (32) in the AL in sacrifice flies. That points to better situational hitting, even if it does not always match the eye test.

So, does anything above surprise you or particularly stand out? It appears that the Astros’ turnaround from last to first has been largely due to pitching improvement, especially by the bullpen. Now, they could use some help in that starting pitching area for the stretch run, and we would not complain if they added another bat.

 

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37 responses to “Astros 2024: Out of last place by the numbers”

  4. I am surprised that the Astros went from the toughest to the 2nd toughest team to strike out.  Of their regulars, only Diaz, Pena, Meyers and Yordan have improved their K-rates compared to last year; the rest of the regulars are worse.  Maybe this means that avoiding K’s are not as valuable as one might think.

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  8. At least the Mourners are playing against a legitimate baseball team today. I’m not liking our chances for a W right now.

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  10. Not what I wanted to hear. We are giving up our best pitching prospect for a 33 year old journeyman that has a hard time going 5 innings? Bloss had to be part of the plan for 2025. Shit.

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    • You forget we’ve got Espada calling the shots so Kikuchi will probably be sent out for the sixth or seventh inning regardless of game situation. I’m trying to find the upside here. The only thing I’ve got is that he throws left handed and does K more than one batter per inning.

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    • And he’s just a rental to boot. Doesn’t look real smart to me, either. But I never expected anything real smart from Brown. Or anybody else is that dysfunctional “organization”.

      So I’m not all surprised.

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    • I don’t think Jake Bloss is any better than Tim Redding. But its a lottery ticket you keep and find out about instead of a lefty homerun machine that you can’t trust to make a playoff start.

      Dana Brown is certified.

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      • Steven, more and more, I think Brown is Bagwell’s puppet. I don’t have the stomach for either guy.

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  14. Yes, Yordan’s home/road splits. They are night and day. Why does MMP plague Alvarez, Dave? Like you I am miffed. He slays the ball on the road though. TOF noted YA with one more HR than Tucker, who has been gone for how long now?

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  17. 1st and 3rd with 1 out. Infield back at DP depth. A smart bunt would have gotten the run in. Instead Jake hits into and inning DP. I guess they don’t want to win this one.

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    • That would require a manager withg at least two brain cells to rub together.

      If Espada ever had an original thought, it died of loneliness.

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  18. I’m flabbergasted. I can’t know this definitively, but it could well end up being the worst trade in recent Astro history. That’s my take. That’s my belief. We’re throwing 2025 away in remarkable fashion. What happens tomorrow?

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  19. That trade amounted to grand theft larceny for a damn near dumpster dive. I can’t wrap my head around that one. Now we’re sitting here watching our guys run into outs trying to let the Pirates back in this game. Geez!

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  20. Wagner & Joey L plus Bloss is WAY too much for this guy!

    Brown went to his first prom all dressed up and so damn thirsty he got bent over, r@ped, and cast aside before his corsage was even wilted.

    What a punkass bitch DEI loser……

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    • This is the worst trade. I can’t imagine the thinking that wnt into this. In two years Bloss will a positive rotation starter. Lopercito should have been a stater this year. In return we got a he homerun magnet .I had mixed feelings about Brown before this , not now. I weep for or future

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  22. Kikuchi? Tell me this is April fools. Can’t even trust that guy to make a playoff start and give up Loperfido. What a clown move.

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  23. This has turned into a pivotal day for the Astros 2024 season.

    And tomorrow might get worse.

    I can’t fully blame Brown. Bagwell is right there. He’s the architect of this clubs decline. It’s been all downhill since Click got run out of town. And tonight he’s smiling.

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  25. We gave up Bloss the Boss, Will Wagner, and even Joey Astro? All for six weeks use of a 33 year old pitcher whose ERA over his last seven starts is 7.34, whose WHIP over those starts is 1.54, and whose innings pitched per start over those games is less than 5 innings?

    Tell me we that what we are watching is something other than the intentional deconstruction of the Astros dynasty.

    Let’s just call this what it is: the Kamikaze Trade.

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  26. Good morning without the exclamation point. I just watched the brief interview with Loperfido from last night. He was in tears. He thanked everyone involved for being like a family to him, coaches, the group of players that took him under their wings. It was a kind of a raw, unguarded moment from a guy that thought he had a home here. He believed he was an Astro. Sometimes we run into a young guy that clearly has integrity, a passion for the game, respect for the game and the people around him. Intelligence too. And on the field, a play maker. Maybe Joey Lops did not grade out high enough on Jeff Bagwell’s scorecard. And Will Wagner too. A smart kid that plays the game correctly, with a real pedigree, a knowledge learned directly from his father. And then another deep thinker in Jake Bloss. We lost three guys from our future, the kind of guys we want on the Astros, all potential leaders. It’s a damn shame.

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