Growing up, the All-Star break was always taken as the halfway point of the major league season. It might not have been the exact halfway mark, but it was closer than it is today. For instance, back in 1968, the year the Astros hosted their first All-Star Game, the break came after the Astros’ 83rd game with an almost equal 79 games to go.
Scroll ahead to 2024, and the Astros, after going through the motions of two losses to the Texas Rangers, have completed 96 games and only have 66 games left to the end of the season. That’s about 40% left to go.
Regardless (or is it irregardless, I never can remember), this is an excellent time to take stock of the season to date and what needs to happen from here on out to ensure a successful season for the good guys.
Stats from the first 60% of 2024
- The Astros continue a bad trend from the last few seasons and suck at winning with the new extra-inning rules. They are 4-7 in 2024, which is better than the 1-8 in 2023 and a little worse than their 5-6 in 2022. They are not good at the small ball needed to succeed with a runner at 2nd with no one out apparently.
- After being around or above .500 in one-run games the last three seasons, the Astros are just plain bad so far in 2024, with a 7-17 record. Along with not being good at extra-inning games, they have had a bad habit this season of rallying from behind to not quite catch their opponents.
- The team is an above-average fifth in runs per game in the AL, which is decent, but which you would hope was a bit better with the best batting average and the third-best OBP in the league. The team is the best in the AL at not striking out, but is one of the worst at drawing walks – sitting at 12th out of 15 for the season.
- A surprising stat that does not feel like it meets the eye test is that the Astros starting pitching is way down at tenth in the AL with a 4.24 ERA. There is no doubt that this is an area of improvement over the last six weeks, but during the early part of the season, it included really bad numbers by Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti.
- The Astros relievers are better than the starters, running seventh with a 3.73 ERA in the AL. They only have 23 saves (ninth-best in the league) but have blown 14 save opportunities. Note that blown saves include leads lost other than in the ninth inning, so Josh Hader has only lost 1 save opportunity, Ryan Pressly—5, Bryan Abreu—4, etc.
Looking Forward – the next 40%
- Number One – they have to get some starting pitching help soon. There is nothing giving fans a warm fuzzy about the return of Justin Verlander, Luis Garcia, or Lance McCullers Jr. at this time, and even if someone returns, you have pitchers (Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco, and Hunter Brown) headed into possible burnout territory with usage. Remember what happened with Brown and J.P. France down the stretch in 2023. They need help now.
- Number Two – They need Kyle Tucker healthy and back in this lineup. They have done OK offensively without him, but losing a couple games like they did to the Rangers in the last series before the All Star break – emphasized the need for that big, clutch bat.
- Number Three – If they could pick up another reliable (e.g., not Rafael Montero) arm for the bullpen, that would be helpful. The bullpen has been overused in the first 60% of the season, and some of the recent struggles with Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader may be attributed to that.
- Number Four – They need some of their underperformers – Chas McCormick and Rafael Montero I’m looking at you – to do a much better job down the stretch.
- Number Five – Continue to get solid contributions from unexpected sources. Where would the team be without the performances of Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti, Tayler Scott, and even Jon Singleton at this point in the season? Who expected Jake Meyers to have 40 RBIs at this time or Seth Martinez (2.42 ERA), Tayler Scott (1.36 ERA), and Brian King (2.16 ERA) to do what they have done?
- Number Six – They need players/ pitchers who started badly but turned things around to continue their improved play. This includes Hunter Brown, Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly, and Alex Bregman.
- Number Seven – Manager Joe Espada needs to do better. He has done an overall decent job, considering the way injuries have decimated his starting rotation and how he was stuck with playing Jose Abreu for a chunk of the season. But here and there, he makes questionable decisions that are hard to understand. Sunday, they were losing 2-1 late, and he put Rafael Montero out there in the eighth inning when he had Abreu and Pressly available. They were not only available, but with the All Star Break, the Astros were going to have most of this week off to rest. Montero does what he does – walks a batter and gives up a dinger and the Astros ninth inning run is meaningless in a 4-2 loss. That might have been the difference between the Astros being tied with the Mariners or a game behind today.
Frankly, with all the injuries the Astros have faced, being a game back at the All Star break is almost miraculous and obviously assisted by a swoon by the Mariners. They have an opportunity to grab the division by the throat after the break. It should be a lot of fun.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
32 responses to “Astros at the “Other” halfway mark”
Could be fun. I suspect not. As you accurately pointed out, they’re just not that good.
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I think they are somewhere in between the 7-19 suckfest in the beginning of the season and the 17-6 run they are on now. And I think that is good enough to win the division. After that – who knows.
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“I think that is good enough to win the division.”
That’s not saying much this year, Dan. This is the weak sister division big time.
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TOF –
You just have to get in – you look at the recent past:
2023 Champs – the 90-72 Wild Card Tx Rangers
2021 Champs – the 88-73 Braves
2019 Champs – the 93-69 Wild card Nats
Of those – the Braves did not finally get above and stay above .500 until August 5th – they were 6 games back on July 28th
The Nats did not get over the .500 mark permanently until June 28th and they were 10 games out in mid-September until they went on a run and ended up 4 games out.
I wish the Astros were their 2017/2019/ 2022 dominant selves but they are not and with these injuries they likely won’t be. But if they can squeeze into the playoffs they can do damage because you don’t need as many starters and you have travel days off to rest the bullpen.
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Make no mistake, Dan. I’m not saying I won’t be watching them and rooting for them all year. I certainly will. I hope I’m wrong.
I’m just maintaining low expectations as is my wont. It’s the key to happiness! 😉
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Hmmmm, day two and nothing makes me excited about the Astros’ day two draft thus far.
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Found out that Mike Pinder of the Moody Blues passed away in April after having dementia for quite a while. Pinder was the mellotron king who introduced his pet instrument to John Jennon who used it in Strawberry Fields Forever.
Pinder ws 82 when he died and was an amazing musician with a beautiful voice, which contributed greatly to the MB vocal harmonies.
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I loved their music back when I was a young bassist just getting arms long enough to handle a full-sized P bass. Dad didn’t like it so much, so I learned to play in front of a hostile audience early on in my music career! 🙂
Wore grooves in those LPs trying to play along until I mastered the riff I liked…..
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Being raised in Bellaire and having lived in Houston for a long time, I liked the Astros pick of Bellaire HS grad and Rice U Cole Hertzler in round 4.
I also like their 5th round pick Caden Powell of Clinton, OK. He was the National JC Player of the Year at Seminole JC. Astros have always scouted well in Oklahoma.
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Still no internet or cable over here by Rice. I’m trying to stay off my phone, mostly unsuccessfully, as I know, once back to home base I’m going to discover some remarkable roaming charges on my account
Just read this morning the average BA in MLB YTD is .243. I think we’ll hit more than most teams and continue to produce runs at a pretty good pace.
I’m not convinced about the pitching though. Verlander and Garcia remain question marks. McCullers is a long shot. We’ll need quality outside help in the next 15 days. Will we get it?
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Shout out to the crawfishboxes for linking to us today
Astros Crawfish Boil: July 16, 2024 – The Crawfish Boxes
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Thoughts today:
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Yeah, Bopert remains the Hall of Fame cynic in the history of Chipalatta. And then he felt it necessary to disappear once the team started winning. We would have busted his chops from time to time, but I don’t think we would have condemned his reappearance.
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Let’s hope we can keep it alive. I fear that the latest run falling one game short is a bad omen. Those ranger games were ugly yet looked very familiar if you have been watching all year. Blanco will tire as will Arrighetti, no fault of their own. Verlander even if healthy ain’t the horse he was. Framber and Brown then get out of town? McCullers, no way and Garcia seem unlikely to help. Blubaugh or Gusto or Gordon seem to be next in line and were skipped for a reason. Of course there is always Forrest ! (cough, cough). Can’t see picking up more than a middling starter at the deadline if we are also going for a bat. I think we have to count on Bregs to keep hitting, Tucker to come back strong, Al to be Al, yordan to blast off, Pena and Diaz to keep fulfilling their current roles and one of those other three outfielders, (maybe Myers at this point) to get hot. Have to live with John at first and go all in for pitching. It is time to move Leon and Barber, maybe a young pitcher and (if he is not going to replace Bregman, Whitcomb) for a couple of arms. Go ‘stros!
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Thanks for joining in Kelly – not much I can argue there. I will say that during their hot streak the Astros were having a lot less of the type losses they experienced in those last two games of the Rangers series. I go back to the first inning of Game 2 where the Astros scored a run and had the bases loaded and Meyers smoked what looked like a double in the corner – snagged by the third baseman. Just one of those things that might have made a huge difference. Very concerning they stranded so many runners with one or less outs at third. Really hurt.
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Shameful.
https://x.com/rawsalerts/status/1813026725036442026/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1813026725036442026¤tTweetUser=rawsalerts
This woman can’t carry a tune with a bucket!
Glad I didn’t watch that garbage….
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No talent little beeyatch…
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And the nazis took it down that fast to protect their useless idiot “country singer”. Neither of which she is.
Anybody can tell she isn’t a singer. And if she was really country, she wouldn’t butcher our anthem that way. Little commie bitch.
I hope she starves to death in Nashville. She wouldn’t live so long around here! She probably can’t even make a sammich and is COMPLETELY worthless.
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Here’s the video.
She admitted later she was “drunk” and today checked herself into rehab.
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She still doesn’t have any talent. Nashville country sucks. Only the red dirt variety is worth listening to. TEXAS country! 🙂
I hope she recovers from her addiction. I know for a fact it isn’t easy. BTDT
But she’ll still be better suited to employment at Wal-Mart.
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Let me see if I can do short musings on the muse masters musings –
One run records and extra inning records are a good indicator of how much a manager helps you win, or lose, games. So far, not so good.
Overall offensive numbers are an indicator but not a be-all. I’m more concerned with your ability to get an extra base, or scratch out hits against pitchers having A days, or put things in play with runners on 3rd and less than two outs. These seem to be areas they struggle in when you need them to not struggle. It doesn’t just matter in that 4-2 loss, it will matter in every single playoff game you play.
The rotation feels worse than its actually been, especially in the last month or so. The bullpen feels worse than it’s actually been because of some timely losses (see those extra inning/1 run game records).
Brown should have gotten pitching help already. Probably expected Garcia to help, but that might not be until August. McCullers looks like a case where they probably need to put off 2024 and try and get him on the field for the start of 2025. What is there though? The extended WC leaves many more teams in contention than out, and names like Crochet – we are going to be outbid for.
Get King Tuck back and keep everyone upright. If you do that, you will get the guys you need that can have quality at bats against premium pitching enough to win in the playoffs. It’s just going to be if you will have premium pitching for the playoffs.
This might get some pushback – but Montero has been worse this year than even last. He has a 89.4 EV against, almost 2 points higher. He is striking out way less people. He is over 10% walk rate. Also over 5% HR rate. He has been lucky to a point, with a .245 BABIP despite those exit velocity issues. If you are thinking that he has been OK, and you think he should be out there in any situation that a game is on the line, you are going to get disappointed. He just isn’t fooling anyone.
Chas will not get much opportunity, as Tucker will probably kill his playing time.
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“Montero has been worse this year than even last.”
No pushback from me. Monterrible has stunk from the get go this year. And he wasn’t good last year, either.
But I will point out that Monterrible is absolutely fooling someone. Mostly Dana Brown and Jim Crane.
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Regarding Montero, we’d all like him to find his way back. But damn, not on Sunday late when down by a run. If we get as far as the post season, he’ll be left off that roster unless he decides to start pitching again.
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There’s an online forum where people post their unpopular opinions as if they are saying something profound and ground breaking. They usually offer up such wisdom as, “if you drop toasted bread into water it gets nasty” and expect lots of people to disagree while others pat them on the back and tell them how brave they are to make such an assertion. I have no positive expectations from Montero, but the fact of the matter is we have innings that need to be pitched.
I don’t think we have the prospects to get any game changing deals done this year. I’m hopeful a few of the teams will panic (NYY, LAD) and at least give up some assets for help they don’t actually need.
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Devin, we don’t have whole lot of prospects, but historically Crane makes those deadline deals happen. I’m guessing he’ll again be right in the middle of a July 30 acquisition whether we like it or not. I don’t want to lose a Loperfido for a rental. And there are a few guys in Sugar Land I don’t want to lose either. It’ll be an interesting two weeks.
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Dave – I have the unpopular opinion that Loperfido would be a high sale right now. I think he is regarded far higher than what his ceiling will actually be. I love his athleticism, his baserunning and defense is a beacon of light on a roster full of mediocre on both. But his bat reminds me too much of AJ Reed, fairly dominant to minor league pitching, but just not enough strike zone control to be an effective, everyday major league starter. If he is the centerpiece of a trade that brings a star with this and next year control that can front this rotation, like a Crochet, I’m down. I wouldn’t move Loperfido for a pure rental or back of the rotation guy. And I wouldn’t move him for a bat like Vlad Jr.
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Steven, I’ve got the same vibe on Lops. He could be moved. The experts tend to think he won’t be a hitter. I guess I just think he’ll figure it out. Altuve was not expected to be much of a hitter. It’ll be a fascinating 2 weeks leading up to the deadline starting with a fun series in Seattle.
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Oh Dave don’t mix me up with the “experts” they know far more than I do. Statistically, he just looks a lot like Reed. Of course, he could improve. Every player that has the talent to get to the major leagues has the ability to improve.
I don’t think Joey Bats is like Altuve. I think people thought Altuve could hit, they just didn’t see the power coming. In 2011 he hit .389 with 40 strikeouts in 391 plate appearances. The year before he hit .301 with 66 strikeouts in 561 plate appearances. Anyone paying attention knew it. OP was paying attention, because he mentioned it early in 2011 before I had ever heard of the guy. This is what made me start my mancrush on Yainer Diaz in 2022 before he ever saw the majors, because you mentioned him here, I went and looked him up, and said, yea, the ability to put the bat on the ball is insane, closest thing to Altuve I’ve seen in a long time.
I just don’t see it in Loperfido. He has power. He is way more athletic than I thought by just looking at minor league stats. He is a legit talent. He even defends on what looks like is a gold glove level. That separates him from Reed, who looked a giant bird playing first and wasn’t ever beating out a soft grounder. But man, he has got to be better at putting the bat on the ball. He hits it hard when he does. He also seems to have the non-chase skill at least on the same order as say a Jake Meyers, but like Jake, consistent, hard contact often enough to ride a decent batting average is going to be a challenge. Meyers finally has a season he isn’t riding .227 and people are losing their minds. It’s still not great. But Joey is young, and that skill might still develop. But he isn’t THAT young, so sooner would be better.
To be honest, I’m more excited by Wagner. Not Yainer level excited, but I’m ready to see this guy in a major league uniform.
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Steven, no worries, have not yet mixed you up with the experts yet. You’re still one of us.
I was always high on Altuve. He was probably the first guy I ever really followed in the minors. Clearly, the skill set varies much from Lops. Jose always made contact. That’s one reason why we both agree that Yainer will end up being a heck of a hitter. I’m high on Will Wagner too. He has an elite get on base ability. If he keeps getting on base, a place will be found for him.
My take on Loperfido remains that he’s got the intelligence to figure out how to be successful at the plate. And I sure hope we find out one way or another while he’s an Astro.
Today is a big day over here by Rice. We have internet and cable television.
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Lee Greenwood live in Milwaukee. That’s country!
https://rumble.com/v3by09g-warroom-live.html
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This is the first time in a few decades I was excited about the All Star game, but I had to take my kids to VBS last night and missed the first hour of it. I realized I was really only excited about watching Paul Skenes start the game and didn’t bother turning it on after getting home. He could be the next Nolan Ryan, but I think it’s far more likely he becomes either the next Shohei Ohtani or Lance McCullers, Jr. I’m thankful he pitches for the Pirates and not a team in the NL we’d be likely to see in November.
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I am glad our guys are getting a good rest [except Dana Brown, who is probably working the phones like crazy with other GMs].
Let’s hope the 2nd ‘half’ of the 2024 season starts better for us than the 1st half of it did!
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