We rarely discuss money in this blog, as, frankly, it is not our money, and we don’t really have a say in how Jim Crane spends it. But today, based on how the 2024 season is unfolding, it seemed like a good time to look at the most highly compensated personnel on the team and what the team is getting in return for that investment.
Note – all numbers are taken from the Spotrac website and the amount paid by the Astros. Justin Verlander for instance is making $43.3 MM this year, but the Astros are only on the hook for $22.4 MM.
Jose Altuve. The Astros highest-compensated player counts $31.5 MM against the payroll which includes a portion of the signing bonus he already received for his extension. His extension kicks in next season, and he will make $35 MM for three seasons, followed by $15 MM for two more.
He has had a very solid 2024, recent slumping not withstanding, and is on pace to put up 4.2 WAR (based on Baseballreference.com). If you are looking for chinks in the armor, his power numbers are down, his .443 SLG and .786 OPS are fairly pedestrian and his walk rate is almost cut in half vs. last season (5.9% vs. 10.7%). He is earning his salary, but will he earn the higher dollars the next three years?
Alex Bregman. Bregman counts $30.5 MM against the payroll and as most folks know, he is a free agent at the end of this season. Even with his recent 14 game hitting streak, his numbers for the season are below average and he is on pace for a 2.6 WAR. Bregman has been known for walking about as much as he strikes out and even more than he struck out in 2022 and 2023. That has changed in 2024 as he only has 22 walks against 40 strikeouts to date.
Based on his numbers to date, he is not earning his current salary, and there has to be a question about exactly how much he should get in the open market, both in average salary and the number of years after this season.
Justin Verlander. Verlander, as was shown above, counts $22.4 MM against the Astros’ salary for this season. If he pitches 140 innings this season, he will have the option of taking $35 MM (all from the Astros) next season. Or if he thinks he can make more elsewhere, or if he doesn’t think the Astros will be competitive, he could leave. The 140 innings will be an interesting number to watch. He is currently on pace for 133 innings, but that includes the fact that he missed the first three weeks of the season. If he pitches the rest of the season at the pace he has pitched since he returned from injury, he would end up at around 160 innings. If he misses time…. he may miss this option.
As far as performance goes, his K rate is down a bit, his walk rate is up 40% and his HR rate is up almost 50% from last season. His 3.95 ERA is his highest since 2014 and his WHIP is the highest since his partial 2017 season in Detroit before his trade here. His WAR is headed towards around 2 for the season. He is not earning his $22.4 MM and certainly not the $43.3 MM.
Jose Abreu. He is making $19.5 MM this year and will make the same next year, no matter what. He is at -1.7 WAR right now, which is an unbelievable number. This means that not only is he not earning the money he is getting paid, but he is hurting the team by being worth much less than a replacement player (Joey Loperfido??) from the minors. He is on pace for a -4.0 WAR. For perspective, the worst WAR for the 2023 season in the majors was Tim Anderson at -2.0 WAR. If you look up sunk cost in your economics textbook you get a picture of Jose Abreu and his contract.
Josh Hader. Hader famously signed a five-year / $95 MM contract in the off-season and will be receiving $19 MM through the 2028 season. After a bad start to the season, he has pitched better recently, but right now, the second highest-paid reliever in 2024 (behind Edwin Diaz of the Mets) has the 21st most saves in the majors – right behind Hector Neris who is 6-1 with 10 saves. Hader is third in the majors…. in losses by a reliever with 4. Not all of his problems are his own – he has had only 10 save opportunities and has come through 9 times. But one must wonder if he is worth the big bucks this year and especially over the next four seasons after this one.
Lance McCullers Jr. Lance agreed to a contract extension right before the 2022 season that paid him just under $16 MM for two seasons and $17.7 MM for the three seasons of 2024-2026. McCullers missed most of 2022 injured, coming back to pitch quite well down the stretch and into the playoffs before getting hurt once again in the World Series. He missed all of 2023 – injured. He has missed all of 2024 so far – injured. Are we seeing a trend here? If he does pitch, he will probably pitch very well until he can’t.
Ryan Pressly. Pressly is making $14 MM this year, and if he pitches in 22 more games, he will trigger a mutual option that would pay him another $14 MM in 2025. However…..the club could buy that out for $2 MM and undoubtedly would do that.
Pressly is in the midst of his worst season in the majors, pairing a career-high 5.19 ERA with an 0-3 record and 2 saves against 5 blown saves (those include games where he pitched in the 8th with the lead and gave up the tying and/or winning runs). Pressly has lost his closer’s job, and he is not making much of a showing to get another one with someone else next season.
Zack Greinke. Zack is getting paid $12.5 MM of deferred payment this season from the Astros. And the same in 2025. And in 2026. And he may be bringing more value to the team than Jose Abreu.
Framber Valdez. Framber is making $12.1 MM this season and would have one more off-season arbitration raise and the question is…will that be here or with a new team? The other question is, which pitcher are you getting game to game – Dr. Jekyll Valdez or Framber Hyde? He started the season nicely in two early starts and then missed almost a month on the IL. Since coming back, it’s been a mixed bag of starts. Just in the last five starts, he has two wins including a complete game 1 run effort and a seven inning, two hit effort. He also has three losses in those last five games, including allowing 8 runs in 5 innings and 5 runs in 4 innings. He may earn his salary with more consistent efforts going forth, but the days of 20+ quality starts in a row seem as if they’ve gone the way of $1.90 per gallon gas.
Kyle Tucker ($12 MM) and Yordan Avarez ($10.83 MM) are worth every penny. Enough said.
Rafael Montero. signed that $34.5 MM/ three-year contract before the 2023 season in the dark age between GMs after his one and only really good full season in the majors. He immediately stunk up the place in 2023 (5.08 ERA). This season he has been relatively better (3.67 ERA), but has still managed to give up three late leads in games to date.
He has had some value, but that value is not $11.5 MM a year.
Kendall Graveman ($8 MM), Cristian Javier ($7.4 MM), Jose Urquidy ($3.75 MM) and Luis Garcia ($1.875 MM). So far, the only 2024 stats to show for this approximate $20 MM investment is the 7 decent starts by Javier before going down for the season. Graveman, Javier and Urquidy will not pitch again or at all this season and Graveman will be a free agent after 2024. Garcia may join the fray we hope in July or so, but we thought Urquidy was going to join the fray this season until he wasn’t.
Victor Caratini ($6 MM), Mauricio Dubon (3.5 MM), Chas McCormick ($2.8 MM), and Bryan Abreu ($1.8 MM). These are the last four guys on the team not making minimum / Pre-Arb bucks (less than a million). Caratini is getting paid a lot for being a backup catcher but he has been decent. Dubon has been terrific as the replacement for Aledmys Diaz as the Swiss Army knife. Chas has had both injuries and performance problems. Abreu leads the league in appearances and while not quite as shutdown as the last two seasons, he has been outperforming Hader and Pressly in the back end of the bullpen.
Money-wise, everyone else is at a major league minimum, and most of them are a bargain at that price.
But the point of this post is that one of the main reasons the Astros are in trouble this season is that they have so much money tied up with people who cannot perform due to injury or are performing way below their pay rate. Can they get out of this payroll Hell?
Hard to answer that question because we don’t know which one of the “theys” are making the decisions and whether the direction of the team is to go full speed over the falls or pray for the engines to catch fire and power you out of this situation.
Wake me when it is over. (OK, you know I will be here for y’all, but sometimes that is hard duty).
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
24 responses to “Astros 2024: Let’s talk money and performance”
This is a good post to consider Dan, and first off, thanks for continuing to come up with interesting stuff to chew on, even as it’s not much fun to be an Astro fan right now. All I can do is answer for myself. There is a lot here to consider. I’ll break it up a bit.
I love Jose Altuve. He’s special to me. He was born on my father’s birthday and not for that reason my father loved the guy for his hustle and his joyful mature on the field. But he sure got frustrated with his wild swings and his poor base running. I was looking at Jose’s stats earlier today. His arm continues to weaken. His range at 34 is compromised. I’d like to see him DH more. I’d like to see him get more selective. He’s done it before. Just last year his OBP was .393 and in 2022, .387. I hope he’s not swinging for number 3000 already. Money wise, he won’t be worth 35 million a year starting in 2025. But he’s having a Hall of Fame career and I hope he continues to age gracefully.
Why wouldn’t anyone support my decision to trade Bregman last winter? (Insert smile emoji) I don’t even want to consider the thought that the Astros might pick him up at a discount on a three year deal next year in the 75 million range. I’d rather he go somewhere by July 31 and we get something in return. He is an old 30. His annual slow starts are getting worse. I think we can replace his bat in house. But we won’t replace his defense in 2025.
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Good stuff in both posts daveb
I agree with most everything
Don’t despair when I sound like I don’t want to do this anymore – if I could make it thru 2011-2014 – this is nothing
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Morning Dan, I’ll be waiting for your own take on this one!
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Verlander has looked weary over his past two starts. He needs five days rest. So maybe he won’t get to 140 with the Astros. And maybe he’ll go to a contender. The rest of his 2024 salary would be no big deal to several clubs. The walks are up so much because he knows those homers are coming if he does not nibble. He just does not have the stuff at this point. He won’t give us value for that 35 million next year.
We’ve exhausted all discussion over Abreu. I wonder if anyone has ever put up a -1.7 WAR over 113 at bats? If he goes away tomorrow, the team gets better immediately.
Hader is a concern because if he blows out the arm, it’s a big sum of money to swallow for a five year closer. For that reason, I’d get Espada out of the habit of using him for more than an inning.
Man, this is turning into a painful exercise. Are any of us confident that McCullers will be pitching in 2025?
I still think Pressly will show a pretty significant correction over the next couple of months, but I’d let him go to another club for a young arm.
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This team is in Dire Straits this year. Oh well, sometimes you’re the windshield, sometimes you’re the bug. Anyway, what ya gonna do about it?
I want high, I want high OBP
Now look at them Astros, that’s no way to do it
Your plate approach should be for OBP
That ain’t workin’ counts, that’s no way to do it
Money for nothin’ and take licks for free
Now that ain’t workin’ counts, that’s no way to do it
Lemme tell ya, the FO looks dumb
Maybe get some pitchers on your IL roster
Maybe get a pitcher strain his thumb
We gotta call up minor league options
Custom pitching deliveries
We’ve got to move these big buck contracts
We’ve got to move these worthless ABs
See those opponents with discipline in their lineup
Yeah buddy, the tools are all there
Those no-star opponents got the strike zone ingrained
Those no-star opponents are not millionaires
We gotta call up minor league options
Custom pitching deliveries
We’ve got to move these big buck contracts
We’ve got to move these worthless ABs
Groover mover, uh
Got to call up minor league options
Custom pitching deliveries
We’ve got to move these big buck contracts
We’ve got to move these worthless ABs
Looky here, look out
We shoulda learned to trade the All-Stars
We shoulda learned to trade them bums
Look at that hurler, he got it throwin’ to the camera
Man, we could have some
And he’s up there, what’s that? Some cryin’ noises?
He’s swingin’ out the strike zone like a chimpanzee
Oh, that ain’t workin’ counts, that’s no way to do it
Get your money for nothin’ and take licks for free
We gotta call up minor league options
Custom pitching deliveries
We’ve got to move these big buck contracts
We’ve got to move these worthless ABs
Listen here
Now, that ain’t workin’ counts, that’s no way to do it
Your plate approach should be for OBP
That ain’t workin’ counts, that’s no way to do it
Money for nothin’ and take licks for free
Money for nothin’, take licks for free
Get your money for nothin’, and take licks for free
Get your money for nothin’, take licks for free
Money for nothin’, take licks for free
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AstroNut – that is a five star parody – just perfect.
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I have reconsidered my ideas about the Astros’ plate appearances.
Perhaps Espada’s strategy IS to swing the bats at everything! That would explain everything wrong on the offense now.
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Those Grienke deferred payments become more annoying every year.
Framber is actually a tough call. He’s cheap for the innings he provides. But I sure would not be able to keep an employee that continues to be unreliable. You can’t build around that. I hope the decision makers consider offers for him. Valdez is likely not worth as much as he should be, but my stomach just does not want ride his roller coaster any longer.
So what to do? Graveman, Montero, Javier, Garcia, all guys we might not see any or much further return from. I’ve already suggested we move Verlander if he’s willing, part ways with Framber and entertain offers for Pressly. And Bregman too. Can someone (Committee or Dana) get enough promising innings in return so that the Astros don’t turn into 100 loss club again? I know we can improve first base in a moments time. And Jake actually might bring a solid return from a team like the Phillies.
This team still needs an anchor. That is Tucker. 8 years, 350 million. Will that be enough? I don’t even know if Tucker wants to play for this dysfunctional organization. Speaking of the Phillies, they sure would like him. And there are other marquee teams that would have the ready resources. The Astros should at least have a pretty good idea at this point if Tucker is likely to sign for what we are willing to pay. And if the answer is a likely no, move him this summer.
Now with all this said, it’s likely none of these daveb7 transactions will happen. Historically, Jim Crane has been pretty much true to his word. He might not be a seller. But how much of a buyer could he possibly be with all the present commitments?
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Hey Daveb – when you said you were waiting for my take on this one – which one were you talking about? I get the feeling you meant to tag that to your last comment on the path forward rather than the earlier comment.
Anyways – here are some thoughts in general:
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Crane says we’ll never be sellers. Dana says we’ll be buyers. I can only hope that we won’t give up any of our few promising prospects in trying to make a run. That might further screw up 2025 and beyond.
If the team has any real hope of making the post season, management has to deal with first base. That might give them a bit of credibility in the clubhouse. The offense has to wake up. The pen has to be better. The starters need to be better. And we need more starters. I just don’t think all these things with happen in 2024. But I do think we can be a competitive club in 2025 if our front office group of individuals somehow gets smarter than they’ve been over the past couple of years. The next six weeks should help us better understand where this organization is heading. But maybe not!
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Spotrac says the A’s are paying roughly the same to their entire roster as your first bullet of Abreu, Greinke, McCullers, Urquidy, Graveman, Garcia, and Javier.
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Some good discussion here
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/06/astros-could-pursue-multiple-starting-pitching-additions.html
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Social media wins again.
So long, Jose.
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Thank you, Jesus!
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Now, that we’ve moved on from Jose Abreu, can we fix the other really big issues; Not enough starting pitching depth and an inconsistent/under achieving back end of the bullpen. And whatever happened to making the opposing starters go deep into the count? Nowadays we swing at everything no matter if it’s in the strike zone or not. I hope moving on from Abreu is enough to propel us to the playoffs but I’m afraid that alone won’t do it.
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Jeff – it is a great point about the rest of the team – what else do they need to do
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Had to happen
Astros Release Jose Abreu – MLB Trade Rumors
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“…with owner Jim Crane spearheading negotiations on that deal and on Rafael Montero’s own surprising three-year pact. Though the length of the pact was a modest surprise, it pales in comparison to how surprising the extent of Abreu’s decline has been.”
It should’ve happened before they broke ST camp. Crane had to stroke his ego a couple months first, I guess. We can thank him for having a team that sucks in 2024.
That’s about what I figured. Numbskull rich bastard…..
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Replacing Abreu was the right move to make, but this isn’t fantasy baseball and the contract dictated he was going to play. As I’ve pointed out, however, across the league almost everyone at 1B stinks this year. If Abreu were putting up stats consistent with his 11 games in the playoffs last year we would be speculating he had an outside shot at earning an All-Star spot. My recollection was that he hit decently in Spring Training, but without power this year too.
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It’s a big day. I just got done listening to a 17 minute recording of Dana on 790 this morning. He did not inspire. Did confirm that Abreu was on a tumeline…although it’s clear now the decision had already been made. He also downplayed the possibility of a significant pitching acquisition. But he did mention that he expects Garcia to be a help in the next six weeks. So unless Crane pulls off one of his big surprises, we could be going with the status quo.
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Cooper Hummel, the 29 year old journeyman. Never has played an ML inning at first. Has a couple of more innings at first than Loperfido in MILB play. Has a good eye. And he’s having a good year with the bat. He’s also a switch hitter. After saying last week that Loperfido might play some first in SF, I understand his hesitation when asked about Loperfido at first this morning. I don’t think Dana is the guy in charge of the roster right now. I expect our first base expert has that authority.
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I need to add that Loperfido is not eligible to come up this week because he got screwed around last week.
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Perhaps the Astros are trying to slow Loperfido’s service time clock, just as they did to Springer.
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It may be my cynical nature, but that sounds like the most probable scenario to me.
Laptop not going in the shop til Monday after all. So I’ll get to watch this weekend series. Not sure if that’s a blessing or a curse……
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