Hopefully, you folks haven’t despaired over my lack of posts this week. Along with having a crazy schedule at work, I’ve been a bit of a dry-hole this week. This task of figuring out what the team could do may not have been the best theme to choose when I was struggling. Anyway – here goes.
The title here is not really meant for the team itself. What the team can do is play better, period.
This is more a question about the front office/ownership group and what they might do moving forward with the team. Games like Thursday’s win over the Yankees do not make the task any easier. The thought that this might be the turning point, especially with Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, and Justin Verlander all pitching this weekend, is mighty inviting. Or we could be sitting here Monday after another failed series over the weekend going – now what. So here are some potential scenarios for the team going forward.
Riding the Storm Out – A little aside here – REO Speedwagon is one of my guilty pleasures. I know that they are one of those groups that got dissed when arena rock was overturned by punk and grunge, but I liked the rocking group out of the Midwest and “Riding the Storm Out”, especially the live version was everything a rock and roll fan could wish.
But in this case, the scenario plays out with the front office staying the course, making a tweak or two out of their not-so-overwhelming minor league system and mostly waiting for their rotation to return, for their hitters to return to hitting in the clutch, and for their Three Amigos at the back of the bullpen to start pitching to the back of their baseball cards.
Under this scenario, they wait things out and then take action at the trade deadline to either be a seller or a buyer, depending on how things are going at that time.
The Nuclear Option – Under this scenario, they start making huge changes towards the future and soon. Release Jose Abreu. Justin Verlander, Alex Bregman, Framber Valdez, and Kyle Tucker are all placed on the trading block along with lesser trading chips like Ryan Pressly, Chas McCormick, Rafael Montero, and Jake Meyers. They bring up everyone with a pulse, they pick up youth with trades and slide them into the lineup, and they stop pretending they are just a series away from turning everything around.
Strategic Strike – The team that basically let their World Series winning GM James Click go with a slap-in-the-face offer and never gave their WS winning manager, Dusty Baker, more than a one-year contract (maybe by his choice), decide after about 20-25% of the season that Joe Espada is not the guy. This makes me picture a scene from The Gilmore Girls where Mitchum Huntzberger tells Rory Gilmore that she doesn’t have what it takes to be a reporter. Wow, my mind is wandering today between REO Speedwagon and the Gilmore Girls. I guess this is more pleasant than thinking too deeply about our baseball team.
Teaching Moments—With the pitching staff producing laughable results, the team unloads either one or two of their pitching coaches, Josh Miller and/or Bill Murphy. Of course, this ignores who has been pitching most of the innings in starts for the team. But it does consider that so many pitchers, including the Three Amigos, are not performing up to snuff.
On the flip side, should we send one or both of our hitting coaches, Alex Cintron and/or Troy Snitker, packing because the team is unable to bring in the “easy” runners from third base with zero or one out? It’s kind of tough with the team ranking so high in BA /OBP /OPS.
Rearrange the Top – The Astro owner Jim Crane needs to take a deep look at what he has wrought with the Bagwell-Jackson-Biggio troika alongside Dana Brown and Joe Espada in the decision-making process. Whatever the process is – it is not working very well. Maybe he needs to move towards the pattern many successful teams have where there is a VP or P of Baseball Operations who has the final say but works closely with the GM. The owner only gets involved when serious money is involved. Right now, the Jim Crane-led Astros are quickly turning into the Jerry Jones-ruined Dallas Cowboys.
Hybrids can be good—maybe the solution is the old moderation path. Make some changes, but not a complete 52 pickup tear-down. Explore a few trades, but don’t send everyone packing. Maybe Bregman and Framber? Deep six Jose Abreu. Send Montero and some bucks attached elsewhere. Try to line things up for a return to glory in 2025.
Yes, there are things that can be done with the team – some now, some at the trade deadline, some during the next off-season. But the big question is – what does this front office want to be when it grows up?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
53 responses to “Astros 2024: What can they do?”
At time was anyone on this board happy when Crane with the influence of Bagwell decided to sign Jose Abreau to this three year deal. He had a hi own significant signs of aging in his last year with the white sox. And then: the Montero thing. If I was Crane, I would get Bagwell and Biggio and any other player icons out of the front office. I’m sure they can be helpful down on the field. (Base running).Bring back more of the computer nurds, which helped this team earlier to identify weaknesses and strengths. That is my opinion .
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“If I was Crane, I would get Bagwell and Biggio and any other player icons out of the front office.”
Amen to that! Management by committee (or anything) never works. Even if they were stakeholders (are they?) somebody needs to take ownership and accountability.
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I love REO Speedwagon. I’ve seen them live many times and it has always been a great time for all. One time out on the island between Mpls and St Paul with Rossington Collins was memorable in my yute!
As far as what to do, I’m in the ride the storm out camp until deciding on what type of hybrid approach to take as we get closer to the trade deadline. I do think part of that pairing process needs to be a change in the pitching coach staff.
The Houston pitching staff really hasn’t been the same (i.e. as good) since we lost Brent Strom. Which, unfortunately, was part of the price the team paid for having Mr. Toothpick in the dugout.
Meanwhile we hope and pray our starting pitchers all come back and perform up to their potential. LMJ comes to mind specifically.
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Dan, it might be a moot point. I don’t know if the front office with the present hierarchy is capable of making the correct decisions. Are we still using analytics?
For the most part, we’ve got to ride out the storm. We don’t have a whole lot of options. If someone needs an outfielder, we might be able to help. That might get Leon up. That might create a spark. That might give us a guy for the pen. Little steps.
Certainly we should release Abreu. But why do I think he’ll be back as soon as Singleton steps into his next slump? That will a Bagwell move. It’s kind of late to move Bregman and Framber. It’s easy to say now, but Framber might have brought us the third base prospect we badly need. Bregman might have brought us a strong young arm. We might have picked up lightly used Seth Lugo and still significantly trimmed the payroll. Instead we’ve added 95 million. Tucker? Someone should find out if he wants to be in Houston. I wonder. And I really could not blame him for bailing. But I don’t want to break this whole group up, so I still would try to sign him. He’s one of the best at his job. Pressly and Montero have to get it together. We don’t have options for them.
I could see Joe going at the All Start break in favor of acting Manager Biggio or Bregman. Biggio would be my preference if only temporary. But Joe, maybe he’s just a really good soul that is also not dynamic enough. Last night Blum was begging for a a bunt or a hit and run or a steal. The guy in the booth has to make that call? And when Alvarez got on first in the 8th, why wasn’t Loperfido running for him and then taking over left? Use the whole team.
That slap in the face offer to James Click is what started this downward spiral. It the players continually are exposed to a dysfunctional management group, they’re not getting leadership.
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Larry – I have to say I was in favor of the Abreu signing at the time on the surface – but if they had done deeper digging statistically they might have realized his decline and his slowing down of the bat. This looking at the back of the baseball card does not tell you he went so long with no power in 2022.
TOF – Did Dusty drive away both Click and Strom? Certainly he would have been in favor of Biggio-Bagwell-Jackson OG influence in the front office. Strom had a heck of a legacy here and the fact he immediately found another job showed he was not done. Of course, the D’Backs have been not very good pitching the last couple of years – even Strom cannot overcome lack of talent.
Dave B – Yeah they might not get much for Bregman this season as a rental, but Framber still has next season – so he would bring back something.
I am in the Riding the Storm Out area myself – they could turn this around in my opinion, but it has to be real soon or the hole will be too deep.
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I don’t know about Click. But I have a strong feeling that Strommy leaving was ultimately because of Baker. I doubt if it was the only reason, though.
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I guess we’ll have to see how the team and Framber are doing as we approach the trade deadline. I’m not as passionate as I was back in November when I went on my Framber rant, but I do think he’s high maintenance and I do think that maybe we’ve seen the best of Framber already.
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I reiterate. Space City Home Network SUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Tucker has the day off so Pena batting second. Which puts who at cleanup? Bregman, of course.
May as well choose the guy whose bat is softer than Joe Biden’s ice cream…….
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Oh goodie. They have their road kill uniforms on today. Let’s flatten em, guys!
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I wonder how much money each one of those lame Little League popups is costing him. I guess we’ll never know……
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Javier was a lot better when he was on the injured list. That was a pathetic effort.
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Nah, he didn’t need any rehab starts. That’s obvious…..
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Oh and I just read that they DFA’d Bielak to activate Javier – surprised by that.
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I noticed that, too. Poor Bielak has been driven like a sled dog. Been doing a fair to middling job.
Which is a lot more than can be said about Javier tonight.
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I hope Javier is healthy. He had no business pitching tonight.
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Looks like that Notre Dame connection of Peter Solomon/Brandon Bielak has finally run it’s course.
I thought the Astros were going to be good. I thought the Hader signing would really help seal our bullpen. I thought Jose Abreu would be good for the Astros when they signed him. I thought the Espada move would be a good one. Notice a pattern here. I have been wrong a lot and, yet, the Astros haven’t paid me anything to make wrong decisions. Who is responsible for the decisions and how much are they being paid?
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The starters for the A’s series have been announced, except for Thursday, which is a TBA. I guess they are not so sure about Javier.
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If I’m Crane, I’d call my handpicked legends on the carpet, uncork a decanter of bourbon, listen to them reminisce how things were done yesterday, then point to 2 former Astro execs (Elias/Mejdal) presently making a big splash in Baltimore. Afterwards I’d thank them for their service, perhaps welcome their sage advice helping players on the field, then hand the reins to the GM hired to run the tm w/o interference from them, thereby putting to rest Crane’s failed attempt to wear all the hats with his cronies.
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Rearranging at the top will help unclutter some of the mess that has gone wrong with this team
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Teaching moments…
This tm is stacked with battle tested vets (except Diaz/Lops/Cabbage, adding some S&M to a struggling lineup). The league has caught up to Diaz (1st pitch breaking balls!) and he has to adjust back. These vets know how to hit. Does someone have to tell them to step back and breath? What do you say to a vet swinging at P over his head or lunging at P in the opposite batter’s box? You do that in critical situations with the bases juiced, needing runs!
One can clearly see this lineup, struggling, is pressing hard (seemingly always behind trying to catch up by the 2nd inning). Last night’s gm felt like a rerun of so many previous loses, the lineup struggling to hit, esp with the bases juiced.
Chasing hits is not a winning strategy. Perhaps a fresh face and different perspective might instill a different attitude at the plate.
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With a new hitting coach or two I meant.
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I like the Hybrid option, but like I stated on a previous post, if changes are not made at the top, then it might not matter what happens at the bottom
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One of a kind lineup
Tucker
Pena
Alvarez
Bregman
Singleton
Diaz
Loperfido
Cabbage
Dubon
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It took some innings to click Dan, but this lineup hitting on all cylinders in the 8th so far
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I was planning on sleeping in and giving this game a miss but I was awakened by thunderstorms, pea size hail, and flying tree branches. Thankfully none very big. The power came on about noon thirty and I tuned in to the game shortly after.
Glad I tuned in. That was the most enjoyable Astros game I’ve see this year so far.
Doobie was on fire (which is when I ALWAYS feel my best) and the rest of the lineup seem to have been inhaling the right spirit!
Now just hold it, boys. Hold it. Hold it……..
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If the Astros are going to make a move towards respectively, this 10 game homestead should be considered phase one. Anything less than a 7-3 record would be spinning wheels. 8-2 is really what they need.
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Joe’s job gets a bit tougher when Chas gets back. How does he keep the outfielders all active? Jake, Chas, Dubon, Loperfido, Yordan, Tucker. I’m guessing Cabbage will go back to AAA.
It’s more difficult that Jake only plays center. Yordan makes it tougher too. He hits better when in left, but he’s a liability defensively. Assuming Loperfido continues to work at first base, he should be ready for his ML debut at some point soon. He’s had 56 starts at first in the minors over the last two plus years. We know he’s got more range than Singleton. And we need to see that he can play there before the Committee starts thinking about bringing Abreu back in.
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But the toughest part is the rotation. Has Javier got a physical problem not fully addressed? We’re still relaying on Arrighetti. I’m guessing the TBD on Thursday will end up being Brown. Too many question marks.
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Spencer Arrighetti on the 2nd of May threw a pretty good game – 5 2/3 of 2 run ball, and he was one out away from recording a QS and probably would have gotten his first win. The rest of the time he has been between struggling and bad.
The Astros need him to have that first QS, 6 IP, 2 run performance tonight – if he can do that, and they can look at 4 in a row of Blanco-Valdez-Verlander-Javier there is probably 3 QS in that 4 game stretch, a good chance at a winning streak is here.
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Steven, my biggest concern is Thursday. Starter is listed as TBD rather than Javier. I sure hope they did not bring him back prematurely.
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Hindsight suggests they made the right call, but they had to choose between Javier without a rehab start or Brown. Although Javier has had some issues with command in the past, his performance on Saturday was particularly erratic. Perhaps if he had a rehab start in Sugar Land on Saturday before his Thursday start, things would have gone smoother.
While it’s crucial for the Astros to remove Brown from the rotation, a Saturday start in front of his hometown crowd might have suited him better than Javier’s performance. He likely would have maintained a consistent 97 mph throughout the game and stayed highly focused.
They say hindsight is 20/20. Given the emergency mode they were in, it’s understandable they rushed Javier back into action. But looking back, a rehab start for Javier might have been wiser, especially considering he likely didn’t hit 93 mph on a fastball the entire game.
The difference between Javier throwing at 91 or 92 mph versus 93 or 94 mph is significant. While most pitchers aim to drive the ball downward into the zone, Javier’s fastball maintains its trajectory, deceiving hitters who are accustomed to more predictable movement. His fastball consistently stays slightly higher than hitters anticipate, resulting in many swings catching the bottom of the baseball. At 91 or 92 mph, this deceptive quality diminishes.
When Javier is in top form, with his fastball working, he’s nearly impossible to hit, as shown by his outstanding batting average against (BAA) during peak performances. However, even a slight decrease in speed can turn him into an average pitcher. While he’s undoubtedly talented, managing his abilities requires careful attention.
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Steven, if he does not pitch on Thursday, or even Friday, they brought him back too early. I’m really hoping there is no further issue.
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Hmmm I tried dictating that into a program. I don’t think it said what I meant.
What I meant to say is in hindsight I think they did bring him back to early, and they don’t get the benefit of hindsight. I agree with their decision to pitch him without the rehab but you can’t agree with the result of it. Likely, he would have been sharper if he made Saturday’s start at AAA and then debuted on Thursday.
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Weekend Thoughts
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I think Bregman was only there for games where Altuve and Tucker got some rest. It just pushed him up. I think tonight, unless Yordan is getting a day off next, he will be back down at 5th or 6th.
I would like to see Loperfido and Meyers platoon in CF, Meyers is finding some success as an option against lefties, and until Chas is back there is plenty of time to put them both in there at times. Chas is about to crash the OF party though.
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By the way, I’m good with Jake and Loperfido in some kind of a platoon for now, but historically, Loperfido hits lefties well. So be it, as Jake is hitting the ball presently. I’m just kind of impatient about Loperfido getting a game or two a week at first. When people finally see him there, They’ll realize he can the position. He’s already better than Singleton.
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Given the state currently, Loperfido doesn’t have to sit against lefties, he just has to shift to LF instead of CF. But, at least currently, Espada has been using LF to get Dubon some ABs.
As Dan pointed out it gets full when Chas gets back. It will be challenging for Espada to get everyone ABs in way they stay sharp. Loperfido may see time at 1B because there just isn’t enough ABs to go around for all the OFers.
I’m not ready to give up on Singleton. He isn’t going to hit for a good average, but he will have an above league average OBP, and makes the pitcher throw strikes. He was one missed call yesterday from getting on base 4 times with 2 hits and 2 walks. He doesn’t strikeout near as much as his previous tenure suggested he would. He will never hit at an all star level, but extends pitchers, plays decent D, occasionally misses a play like that line drive yesterday that Yuli would make but he makes most of em. And he scoops errant throws as good as anyone on the roster. I wish his bat to ball was better, he is strong so he crushes pitches at times, but he also misses a lot and hits a lot of lazy stuff.
He is the classic of what have you done vs. I see what you can do example. Bregman seems to be the example of the other direction. There probably is some question as to why the Astros let go of Springer or Correa. To me it’s simple, they were looking for contracts that were about what they have done, the Astros were looking at them for what they were going to do. That’s why Bregman leaves, even if he gets hot and ends up at .270 this year with 25 HR, he is already tipping his hand about what he is going to be. I say that like we didn’t give Abreu 60M and Montero 35M. But this is why fans want Bagwell and Jackson out of the room – former players are always going to lean towards what a player has done, not what he is going to do. “Back of the baseball card.” Luhnow got it. Click never really had a chance to tell us but I suspect he got it. Tucker will probably end up like Cole, we want him back, the owner wants him back, but someone has a bigger checkbook. But Bregman, they should absolutely let him leave.
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That was me this morning going on about all the outfielders. We all want Singleton to be a great story. And he’s done some of what we’ve needed since Abreu left town. Via Baseball Reference he’s already got a -0.4 dWAR on the season. I know you are not a WAR guy. But Baseball Savant has him at 13 percentile in Fielding run value, and at 04 percentile for range. That’s got to be as bad as anyone in the game. He might look better to some of us right now because Abreu looked so horrible. But he’s just not the answer either.
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I don’t put much value in defensive metrics for first basemen. Jeff Bagwell had a negative dWAR for all but three seasons during his career where he managed a 0.0, 0.1, and a 0.2.
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We can agree on this Dave – Singleton is probably not the 1B in Houston in 2025. Regardless how any of us feel about it, it does look like, unless he heads back towards career norms, that he is the 1B of 2024. Doesn’t mean Loperfido won’t finally see some games there, just that Singleton seems to have done enough to tighten it down (at least to Espada).
And I think we would both be giddy to see Loperfido at 1B for 150 games next year. I might be giddier if it was Diaz, but that doesn’t seem likely.
BTW did you see the way Verlander was shaking off Diaz in the 6th? He seemed down right aggravated at some of the pitches being called, to the point that I feel like it played a small part in taking him out of rhythm. Walking 2 guys than plunking a guy and visible frustration, some it towards his catcher. Luckily all the drama started with 2 outs so the flyball to left was harmless.
Go back if you have time, just watch the bottom of the 6th after the first out, and watch how he starts reacting towards Diaz giving him the calm down hand motion he does towards pitchers when they start missing. He pretty much “rookied” him in the way he dismissed him. I’m thinking Caratini will catch his next start. We’ll see.
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What they can do (but probably won’t):
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Meyers was a pitcher in college before he tore up his shoulder. I’m thinking that is over with.
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As usual – the Astros only have one Top 100 prospect – Jacob Melton….
Top 100 Baseball Prospects | MLB.com
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The Astros organization (if that’s what we want to call it for lack of a better term) has been harvesting quite agressively down on the farm for quite a while. Combined with the well known bad trades dealing away other talent, the fields are almost bare and the storage bins are empty.
It’s time to reseed the fields and start growing the next crop. Look for some beloved veterans (and some not so beloved) to be dealt over 2024-2025.
Who it may be depends on what happens between the lines.
That’s the fun part! 🙂
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Let Bregman walk, Steven, or trade him at the deadline if they are out of it?
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I guess trading for something is better than nothing. I don’t know what you are getting though. Every amateur with a computer out there that creates these “just get click websites” like fansided seem to lean on the Yankees as a trade partner for Bregman. He has to pick up the pace if they are going to get anything, and if he picks up the pace, he may personally up the win total by 3 or 4 games between now and July, and they put us back in the hunt, and make us not trade him. It’s the circle of life.
He may, or he may not, earn whatever contract he gets in the offseason in the first 2 years. I am personally convinced he will not earn a third year, much less a sixth or seventh year, of a 250M dollar contract, a deal someone like the Yankees, who have a need, can afford to make up for if it goes south.
Seven years from now, we may regret it. He may take off again. But it seems to me, too big of a risk for a franchise that can only afford a handful of those types of contracts at a time.
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I would say (did say to Dan P above) that we need to reseed down on the farm anyway and Bregman is never going to be worth more than he is right now. His value right now is based strictly on reputation and “the back of the baseball card” but his performance on the field is undermining it a little bit more with every Little League popup and GIDP.
To do it this year only makes sense. Whether we’re in contention for the playoffs or not.
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Here’s hoping the same Doobie is going around as was yesterday! That was good stuff!
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Just for fun – Julia Morales is doing play by play (which she has not done before) and Todd Kalas is being the field reporter (which he has done before).
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I think Julia, TK, and Blummer are the best broadcast crew in MLB. Too bad SCHN technology is such garbage. AT&T trash.
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