It is way early for this, but let’s play a little what-if….. What if the Astros continue to stink through May and at least part of June? What kind of value do they have in their trading chips for a better future?
When evaluating this question, one has to look at whether the assets being traded away have short-term or long-term value. Are you going to have to attach something of value just to get some of their mud (cost) off your boots? Are you trading them at the lowest point in their value cycle? Are you trading them to bring in cheaper current costs or potential future value?
A poison pill. Jose Abreu and his contract are the poison pill that would require the team to attach assets of some value for a team to even consider absorbing some of his contract – about $35 MM at this point. And frankly, he is untradeable today. But…. Let’s say by some miracle, he starts hitting, and it’s the end of July, and somebody does want a veteran for a stretch playoff run. Probably at the very best – the Astros would have to send along a chunk of what was owed him (about $25 MM at that point) – so let’s say $15 MM and throw in a prospect or two. Would it be worth it, or would the team be better off just releasing him? (The correct answer is – just releasing him).
Short-lived value. There are a number of players who fall under this banner…
- Alex Bregman – Alex will be a free agent at the end of the season and likely wants more commitment in dollars and years than the Astros are willing to hand him. The y reach the end of July and he is likely heating up again and is owed $12 MM to the end of the year. To move him as a 2 month rental might get them one good prospect or a couple middling prospects. Better than nothing?
- Justin Verlander – At this point, the Astros owe him $18 MM of his $43 MM contract this year. By the end of July that would be about $6 MM left. If he pitches 140 innings, which he could do without another injury – he can invoke his player option and get paid $35 MM for 2025. Or he could choose to hit the market once again. If he doesn’t make 140 innings, he is an FA. So, it’s tough to know exactly what his value would be at the trade deadline (or earlier), but you would think if he is pitching per his norm, he would be attractive to someone out there and might bring back a solid prospect or two.
- Framber Valdez – Framber would be a free agent after the 2025 season. If (big if here) he pitches well and stays healthy, he would be quite valuable on the FA market. At the end of July he would be owed $4 MM to finish off the 2024 season and guessing at arbitration – would be paid $15-18 MM in 2025. You could easily see him bringing back 2 to 3 valuable prospects in a trade.
- Kyle Tucker – None of us want to see this, but if the front office knows they can’t sign him, it might make sense to send him elsewhere in a hopeless season scenario. He would be in almost the same pay situation as Framber at that point $4 MM for the rest of 2024 and whatever his arb number in 2025 ($15/18/20MM ??). He would be an extremely valuable trade chip and due to health might bring back more than Framber.
- Ryan Pressly – yeah he has stunk so far this year, but if he trends back towards normal and teams think he might pitch even better as THE closer….. He would cost a team a little less than $5 MM for 2 months and he would only stick around for another $14 MM next year if a mutual option is invoked. If a team did not want him they could pay him $2 MM to go bye bye. He wouldn’t have the value of a Tucker or a Valdez, but he has a good history, and someone might have big needs for a playoff run out of their bullpen. Maybe a good prospect and a long-range prospect for him?
- Victor Caratini – He might get someone’s attention with a catching need. He’s hitting well for the second season in a row. At the end of July, a $7.5 MM commitment would cover the rest of 2024 and all of 2025. He switch hits, can play a little first base and seems to be a solid guy behind the plate. You might disgorge some help for him if a team has a big hole behind the plate.
Pause for Untouchables. Probably should have started with this – but who are the untouchables? Other teams can ask for, but will not likely take away…..Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz, Jeremy Pena, Cristian Javier, and Josh Hader (nobody would want him with that contract right now anyway).
Longer-Term Value. These are folks with longer control, so the team might value keeping them more than passing them along, but they would have more value because of their team control for multiple years. Chas McCormick, Mauricio Dubon, Ronel Blanco, J.P. France, Hunter Brown, and Bryan Abreu.
Question Marks. What does the team really think about Jake Meyers, Brandon Bielak, Seth Martinez and Shawn Dubin? Would any of them actually draw interest out there?
Prospects. While Astro prospects like Joey Loeprfido or Jacob Melton might have value on the market (Loperfido much more than Melton so far this season), if the Astros are in full flush mode, they will be looking to add prospects, not send ones packing.
Anyways, just some thoughts here. What do you think?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
14 responses to “Astros’ trading chips: Value, future and more what-ifs”
Only Altuve should be untouchable. If they blow it up, they need to rebuild a spent farm system. I feel really bad for Jose but that’s baseball.
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They do not need a hard reset, even if they continue to suck through June. Today’s collar belongs to the offense yet again, they can’t expect to win games with 1 run.
But in the big scheme – the issue is the IL has an entire major league rotation on it. Even if this year is south, and it appears it will be that way, the focus is getting these arms healthy and doing a soft reset for 2025. I am not trading anyone under contract for 2025, if I am Brown I am confident I can walk into the bosses office with a rotation of Verlander, Valdez, Javier, Garcia, Urquidy, McCullers, Blanco and say that is 7 arms that can win 95 games. If I can do that, why would I forfeit 2025 on a hard reset?
Tucker is an issue. Trading him this season exponentially increases his value. That is the only 2025 FA I would put on that list. But I would try really hard to get him signed before the trade deadline.
Long term, this team is still Altuve, Pena, Alvarez, McCormick, Tucker, Diaz, and that rotation with Hader and B. Abreu. This is not a team to surrender. Is it as good as the 2022 championship team, probably not, but it is a lot of the same names that we just need to get healthier.
I am upset about 2024. I am doubting if Espada is the guy. I think they have already given Hader too much juice, he is the employee here.
I have to apologize Dave, but after 2 HR yesterday, and I watched the video of both, one was a gimme pitch on a tee but the other was earned, its Loperfido time. He is hot right now, call him up, pencil him 1B 5 times a week, and DFA Singleton. There is a decent chance Jon can go down to AAA without getting grabbed and start playing 1B everyday down there to keep that depth. Even though I’ll join you in Loperfido time, I don’t know the Astros will. We’ll see who the name is tomorrow for Saturday in Mexico City, but I don’t see why it won’t be other than they think they will just flat out lose whoever they have to move off the 40 man to take him to Mexico for 2 days. In that case, it just could be Cabbage.
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No need to apologize. What I find interesting is that he hit no homers in ST but ended up with a 1.078 OPS regardless. Then I think someone told him to get the ball out of the park. In spite of all the K’s he’s got a 1.100 plus OPS in the first 20 games of the AAA season, including the 12 dingers.
But indeed Cabbage is going to Mexico. Lops will have to wait.
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Did you know Domingo Santana is still playing? Apparently he hit a walk off HR for Yakult yesterday. Since Diaz, Pena, and Singleton couldn’t get the ball off the ground against some guy named Hector Neris today I guess I’ll have to go watch some replays of that HR.
How long has it been since we had this discussion about trading established players for prospects? Was it 2010? We moved Oswalt for Happ, Villar, and Gose. Berkman for Paredes and Melancon. Then, since that worked out so well, we traded Pence in 2011 for Cosart, Zeid, the aforementioned Santana, and some guy named Jon Singleton. Obviously this isn’t an exact science, but these the biggest contribution towards us actually becoming a winning team came from flipping Cosart a few years later to Miami and getting a 4th outfielder in return.
I’m all for cutting salary if it can improve the team. If the team isn’t going to crawl back into the race then moving Bregman, Verlander, or Pressly makes sense. I might be wrong, but it doesn’t feel like any of those three will return in 2025. I don’t expect anyone would make an offer tempting enough for Framber or Tucker to get dealt. Moving either would be waving the white flag for 2025 in my opinion.
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Domingo was a favorite MILB player of mine. I thought he was can’t miss. Had a couple of good ML seasons. But I had grander visions for the big guy.
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I don’t blame Espada for this mess, but that was the wimpiest toss ever.
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I’m not going to talk about a retooling or a rebuilding for a few more weeks. I don’t have to yet. This is still a much better team than the record indicates. Trial by fire for Joe Espada. The thing is, Crane has made a few rash moves over the past couple of years. I probably would not be shocked by a premature departure for our already maligned manager. Baseball is a funny game.
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Did anyone else notice how pissed JV looked when he got the hook? I can see why Espada did it, but considering the current state of the team, I’d rather have the ball in his hands than anyone else. The decision worked out but I’m not sure it was the right one. It’s literally shocking how pathetic this team looks. I’d have never in a hundred years believed it.
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There are two things I would like to mention tonight.
The first thing is that if the Astros were to win their next 12 games, they would be a .500 team. If they were to play a lot better than they have thus far and split their next 12 games, they would still be 12 games under .500.
The second thing I would like to mention is that the Astros payroll is $30 million higher than it has ever been before and their record is 7-19. If they could make some good trades and knock around $20 million off their current payroll, they would be under the luxury tax and be a heck of a lot better off for the year 2025.
More about those trades this weekend.
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I’m just looking to see them win 6 of 8 or something realistic in order to get stabilized. Winning both in the nice warm environment of Mexico should not be out of the question.
Looking forward to hearing about those trades. My biggest concern there is that I’m not sure if we have the right people in the organization to transact savvy deals.
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To answer specifics –
Let me start by saying moving anyone is going to require them to play better than they have, and if that happens you might find yourself back in contention in a weak division, which will halt any ideas of moving anyone. It’s a vicious cycle.
Abreu – probably will require a release if you want him off the roster. I don’t think he is going to start hitting, but it’s possible. I have my doubts that the Astros will release him.
Bregman – the kinds of names you get for a 2 month rental are ones you rarely hear again. Better off trying to make a late run for a wild card.
Verlander – isn’t quite Altuve in my mind but man is a close second in what he has meant to the franchise. I can’t see being happy about any trade that sends him out. Interesting enough, if the Tigers are not just a early season aberration, he could be on board with that.
Framber – like Bregman, would have to play and do well to have value, and that might be putting you back in and not trade anyone. I have to much respect for the need to have pitchers give you quality starts than trade the all time leader in consecutive quality starts. I just wouldn’t do it.
Tucker – its hard to imagine, but I can’t let him leave for nothing because he has the most value of all of them. He is the one guy that can bring you back a REAL return, especially if its this year.
Pressly – see Bregman and Valdez. Improvement makes the team better and could get us back in, without it, he is worthless.
Caratini – I guess if Salazar is still hitting well at AAA and someone offers a prospect that is at least decent, maybe. I can’t see anyone beating our door down over that one.
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And what do you think the chances are this is a record breaking squad?
The worst start in MLB history after 26 games for a team that made the playoffs was the 2001 Oakland Athletics, who started 8-18. Is this the record breaking squad?
Keep in mind, that A’s team won an incredible 102 games that year after that start. There is precedent.
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I peruse the Crawfish bunch but I am not enrolled to comment.
Thus, I read, today, where many are asking that the Astros fire the hitting coaches. The friends need to check their temperament at the door and look at the overall stats.
The Astros lead the American League in hits, lowest amount of strikeouts, tied for FIRST in batting average, second in OBP, fourth in slugging, third in OPS.
I shake my head…
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Yes, the Astros have been hitting but not scoring enough runs. A lot of that can be attributed to baserunning mistakes running into outs, getting picked off, caught stealing, etc. So far, Bagwell can’t fix Abreu’s hitting or fielding. Can he teach the guys anything about baserunning?
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