Astros 2024: Revisiting “THE QUESTION”

The post with “THE QUESTION” in it seems like a long time ago. But it was only about a month ago…

What has happened since then?

  • We have been told that Justin Verlander has been put on the IL to start the season, but not to worry. He is only on there due to some shoulder stiffness in the off-season, which put him behind schedule and he will be ready as soon as he is ready, not as soon as we are ready.
  • Jose Urquidy had been pitching very well in the pre-season. Then he pulled himself after a 43  pitch effort with a sore elbow. He was sent back to Houston for further examination and his manager Joe Espada said he would likely start the season on IL with a right forearm muscle strain. Based on decades of baseball fannery, this OG is worried about that.
  • Framber Valdez has been chosen to pitch the opener after a very uneven 2023 that ended in a very poor showing in the second half of the season and the playoffs. In 3 starts in Spring Training, he has a 7.71 ERA, giving up 15 hits in 9.1 innings.
  • J.P. France, who started off Spring Training with a sore shoulder, has returned and has pitched all of 2.1 innings with a scary 2.14 WHIP. Opening Day is looming.
  • Brandon Bielak, who started 13 games for the Astros in 2023 due to starting rotation injuries, has a 7.36 ERA in 5 appearances this spring.
  • Spencer Arrighetti, who would be considered the next man up from the minors, has a 7.20 ERA in 2 appearances in major league Spring Training games.
  • All is not hopeless as Cristian Javier (2-0, 1.80 ERA), Hunter Brown (2-0, 2.84 ERA), and Ronel Blanco (3-0, 0.00 ERA) have all pitched well so far this spring.
  • On the side, there is the reminder that both Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia are, at best – months away from helping out.

So, how bad is this? The Astros are probably no worse off than they were about a month into the 2023 season. On May 1st, Luis Garcia pitched for the last time before his TJ surgery. Jose Urquidy had just had his last start before being put on the IL until returning in August. Lance McCullers Jr. was supposedly trying to work his way back, which ended in surgery in June. So, they were in a similar situation as today, but without the thought that Justin Verlander, then with the Mets, would be returning in a few weeks as is expected (fingers crossed) this year.

So, maybe the starting rotation won’t sink the ship.

Just don’t check out the Spring Training stats for most of the relievers expected to carry the bullpen this season – Rafael Montero (16.88 ERA), Dylan Coleman (already assigned to minors 14.54 ERA), Bryan Abreu (9.82 ERA), Ryan Pressly (4.50 ERA), Oliver Ortega (4.50) and Bennett Sousa (4.25 ERA). (Josh Hader is as 3.18 ERA, but just had a day where he gave up 2 homers in 2/3 of an inning).

Have to hope for a 2017 hitting season to carry this team until the pitching shakes out.

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23 responses to “Astros 2024: Revisiting “THE QUESTION””

  2. A few days after MLBTR reported that the Astros were in “serious pursuit” of Blake Snell, they now say that they are “long shots” to sign him, which I think is accurate.  Even if his asking price of $30M per year goes down, I don’t think it will go down enough.  I don’t think Jordan Montgomery is in our price range either.

    If we do sign another starter, I’m thinking either Mike Clevinger or Michael Lorenzen, otherwise I think we will go with what we have: Framber, Javier, Brown, France, Bielak & Blanco.

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    • Thus, the Giants go over the luxury tax line, becoming the tenth team to do so. One third of all MLB teams now over the line.

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  5. Between losing draft picks, international pool money and 30 million plus a year to Snell, it was too hard to embrace the deal. And he would not have been ready on Opening Day. Last time he threw 180 innings and won a Cy Young, he followed that up with a 107 inning season and a 4.29 ERA. Signing the guy would not have offended me, but cooler heads prevailed. 

    We sure need to get innings out of the starters we do have though. Except for our new closer, the pen still has all the questions we had after losing Graveman, Maton, Stanek and Neris. Was Dana Brown hamstrung by the Hader deal? Regardless, our GM has not come up with any solutions for the front end of the pen. We’re going to have to be patient and hope our loud bats wake up and provide some easy games for the pitching staff.

    I hate the thought of David Hensley having a seat on the bench simply because he’s our only infield option right now after Dubon. As was noted yesterday by Mr. Ghost, Hensley looks as if he’s afraid to make the throw across to second at this point. And he’s certainly not a bat off the bench.

    I sure wish there was a way to provide Loperfido with enough playing time to keep him busy with the big club. He does so many things better than any other bench guy excepting Frenchie.  A legitimate lefty bat. He runs. A base stealer. A better arm than Jake or Chas. Has he played any first this spring? He might be a real spark. 

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  6. I’m going to stick to the #1 rule of spring training:

    ST stats mean nothing!

    We will know who the Astros are by May 1st.

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  7. OP, true, ST stats don’t mean much – if anything – for no-brainer starters [position players like Altuve, Alvarez, Bregman, Tucker, Diaz, Dubon, & Chaz McCormick] and for proven-consistent pitchers like Verlander, Hader, Presley, and Bryan Abreu]. But when it comes to players with something to prove after a melt-down/blow-last year, or those trying to prove they are ready for the big time – ST stats (along with prior years stats in MLB and/or milb] are the best measure we as fans have for evaluating whether we are ready to put our trust in them.

    Examples of guys whose ST stats matter a lot to me include:

    1. Jon Singleton (whose ST stats are, unfortunately, entirely consistent with his historic MLB numbers);
    2. Jake Meyers (whose ST stats and complete approach to the game resemble his better years before the injury in the playoffs a couple of years ago);
    3. Framber Valdez (who had a frightening series of loose-cannon meltdowns last year that made us question his capacity to keep his emotions in check as he ages, and as the pitch clock rules get tougher);
    4. Jeremy Pena (who completely lost his power stroke last year);
    5. Trey Cabbage (whose ST stats strongly indicate he is Brett Wallace revisited);
    6. Pedro Leon (whose ST stats confirm what we’ve been seeing from him in AAA – that he is at best a poor man’s version of Chris Carter);
    7. David Hensley, who suddenly forgot how to hit, and lost his confidence both at the plate and in the field last year – and unfortunately has doubled down on that trend so far in ST 2024]
    8. Will Wagner, who some were hoping would show enough ‘Biggio/Bagwell’ mentality and ‘just win’ talent to make us feel better about the probabiility that Bregman bolts when his contract is up;
    9. Rafael Montero, whose 2023 year made us all gasp in horror – and whose 2024 ST stats have done nothing to assuage;
    10. Ronel Blanco, whose ‘stuff’ has never been in question, but whose inability to control his pitches and throw strikes when he needs to have always been in question;
    11. Wander Suero, who could really come in handy as a mid-inning reliever in light of the departure of Maton, Neris, Stanek, Joe Record, etc, and the unreliability of Montero;
    12. JP France, who has struggled – especially late last year – with dangerously high WHIP [his WHIP this spring so far is 2.14, and his BAA is .364;
    13. Brandon Bielak, who we could use either in the middle bullpen or as a spot starter if he is throwing well, but whose ST ERA is over 7 and whose ST WHIP is 1.64 with a BAA of .275]

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    • Sounds like one of those awful sounding meals you get at English pubs….

      • Bangers and Mash
      • Toad in the hole
      • Bubble and Squeak
      • Cabbage and Hensley

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      • Could be a law firm, like Ketchum & Cheatum. Train wreck? Call Cabbage, Hensley, Stotsman, and Suero at 1-800-S.K.E.E.T.R.Z.

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      • hey bangers and mash is excellent (pork sausages and mashed potatoes if you didn’t know) …

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      • Bangers and Mash don’t impress me. I’m more a smoked Czech links and beans from an esteemed barbecue joint. It’s the Texas in me. But indeed, where I live now, bangers are shipped in on the boat from England that comes our way once a month. There is a loyal following. But will Cabbage hit?  

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      • My only comment on Cabbage is that you have to be a pretty bad hitter to lose out to Jon Singleton before Spring Training is complete (unless they are going to hang on to Loperfido).

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      • As long as we’re talking abut food, apparently Joey made up a pretty good batch of Paella for the troops last week. Can Singleton cook?

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  9. Apparently Cabbage did not produce enough. He is still green and needs more seasoning.

    Also, I believe that law firm is Dewey, Cheatum and Howe.

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  10. A couple things….

    1. Not sure I’m buying this Brown: Astros “Not Actively” Pursuing Starting Pitching – MLB Trade Rumors
    2. And I’m freaking out a little knowing that the first game of the major league season is being played right now in Korea. It just seems weird when the Astros are 8 days from kicking off with the Yankees, but this is globalization of the game and I guess the Dodgers and Padres will get some ample rest before playing again after this series.

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    • At this point, I really don’t pay much attention to what Brown has to say. I’d rather he not say anything about anything until after its happened.

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  11. I buy what Brown is putting down. I don’t know that he means it, he says a lot of stuff, but he has 8 starters in camp right now and 2 more coming back in mid-season. Is spending money on Lorenzen (who just signed with the Rangers anyway) an upgrade over Blanco? Probably not significant enough to spend the money, though after seeing Lorenzen get just 4.5M, and knowing that he has had success as a 6th inning reliever in multiple seasons, I would have spent that.

    Bottom line, Lorenzen and Clevinger are probably not an upgrade for a staff that by 1 May should be Verlander-Valdez-Javier-France-Brown with Blanco and Bielak making spot starts, and spaghetti man has pitched well enough at least in terms of SO/9 and not walking guys – the rest is just short sample.

    If the Astros do bring in Clevinger on a 1 year I won’t be mad at them. It’s depth. He will probably get less than Lorenzen and way less than Montgomery.

    My facebook feed gets blown up with Astros stuff, naturally. The number of comments I see on fan sites clamoring for Bauer is crazy. 1) His history with current Astros players is not good. 2) When there is photo evidence, even if it was shown the person was out to extort him, its not a good look. 3) I always assumed that when no one would take him up on even his minimum wage offer that the insiders of baseball know more about this than we do in the public. Now, the girl that was the “accuser” said a few days ago that the reason no baseball team will sign him is because of what is inside the MLB file that the public can’t see. She hasn’t been proven to be trustworthy, but as they like to say in science, the evidence supports her theory.

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  12. An excellent 4 innings from Blanco and an encouraging 3.1 from France today. That might help Brown keep his word. I’d also have no problem if the Astros did a deal with Clevinger. He’s not done yet. But I think he’d cost something close to what he got for his 131 innings in 2023. I also agree the Astros will manage until Verlander gets back. But we’ll continue to be more frustrated by an inconsistent bullpen. That might take longer to get humming. 

    Oh, and I will hold Brown accountable for his Tucker guarantee!

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