All the recent talk about the Astros saying they will tender an extension offer to Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman has led to discussions about possibly letting Breggy follow the free agent paths of Gerrit Cole, George Springer, Charlie Morton, Carlos Correa and Justin Verlander (with JV bouncing back at the trade deadline).
We know that Bregman has been solid at the bat and at times great in the field. In 2018 and 2019, he was more than solid offensively and was part of the MVP conversation. But with a little fall off the last few seasons and the perception that he may be slowing down or aging early, what would be losing if we let him go and looked to replace him?
It may be a lot more than any of us thought. Using one of my favorite tools – the sortable stat tool at 2023 MLB Player Hitting Stat Leaders | MLB.com – I was able to pull up these very interesting numbers on all Astros 3Bs and one of them in particular.
Single Season for an Astros 3B
- Runs scored – Alex Bregman (AB) has the highest single season (122 in 2019) and four of the top five seasons of all time, including 2022 and 2023 for an Astros 3B.
- Doubles – AB has the highest single season (51 in 2018) and four of the top five seasons, including 2022 for an Astros 3B.
- HRs – AB has the highest single season (41 in 2019) and three of the top four, including 2023 for an Astro 3B.
- RBIs – AB has the highest single season (112 in 2019) and four of the top six seasons, including 2022 and 2023, for an Astro 3B.
- BA – AB tied for the highest single season (.296 in 2019) and three of the top seven seasons for an Astro 3B.
- OBP – AB has the highest single season (.423 in 2019) and four of the top six seasons, including 2022 and 2023 for an Astros 3B
- SLG – AB has the highest single season (.592 in 2019) and four of the top six and five of the top eight seasons including 2022 for an Astros 3B.
- OPS – AB has the highest single season (1.015 in 2019) and five of the top seven seasons including 2022 and 2023 for an Astros 3B.
Career totals for an Astros 3B
- Alex Bregman has the highest career totals for an Astros 3B for runs scored (615), HRs (165), BA (.274), OBP (.373), SLG (.487) and OPS (.860).
- AB is second to Doug Rader in career RBIs (588 vs. 600), in 212 less games and should pass him early in 2024.
2023 totals for 3B in the AL
- Last season, AB was 1st among AL 3B in runs scored (103), 4th in HRs (25), T 2nd in RBIs (98), 5th in BA (.262), 1st in OBP (.363), 6th in SLG (.441) and 5th in OPS (.804).
- In 2022, AB was 1st among AL 3B in runs scored (93), 5th in homers (23), 2nd in RBIs (93), 6th in BA (.259), 2nd in OBP (.366), 4th in SLG (.454) and 4th in OPS (.820).
There is certainly a lot to glean from these statistics.
- First from a career standpoint, Alex Bregman is the greatest 3B in Astros history. He has the top numbers for every significant statistic, except RBIs and will take that spot early in 2024 from someone who has played 20% more games.
- From a quality standpoint, he holds the club record for 3B in all the categories listed above.
- From a quantity standpoint, he is in the top 4 or so, with multiple seasons of top stats in each category.
- From a recency standpoint, he is still putting up top numbers for an Astros 3B the last couple of years.
- Looking at him versus the other 3B’s in the AL, he is up near the top in most offensive categories and is exceptionally good in the area of run production.
The points I’m trying to make here are …..
Alex Bregman is the greatest 3B in Astros history. It is not even close.
The chances of replacing him with someone even close to what he brings to the table are not high.
Even if he fell off at the end of a contract, he likely will have paid for himself over the early seasons of a contract.
And my last point….it is certainly worth the owner’s money to do what he can to make this happen. It might not work, but you are seeing a top-notch talent at a position where the team has historically been mediocre or a flash in the pan.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
28 responses to “Putting Alex Bregman in perspective”
There is also one other thing to consider:
If the Astros pass on resigning Bregman to wait for Tucker, what if Tucker wants to be a free agent?
I don’t think you save the water for fighting the next fire. Fight the fire that rages first.
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I’ll also throw this out there:
Jose Altuve is the only position player involved in the scandal that Crane has kept on the team once their contracts expired and all of Altuve’s teammates swore he did not participate in it.
Is that a coincidence? What is Bregman’s status in that regard? Does Dana Brown’s desire to keep Bregman supersede any previous feelings regarding Bregman’s participation in that affair?
I would really like Bregman to sign a deal that would be good for him and good for the Astros and then see what is in store for Tucker two years from now.
My last comment is that the money involved in retaining players is in a whole new universe compared to where the money was when Luhnow came up with his plan. Eight teams are over the luxury tax limit already and there are still high priced players who have yet to sign. Eight teams went over the ever-increasing luxury tax line in 2023 also.
Things change and plans had better change to cope with it. Who would have thought you would see mini-drones wiping out huge, super expensive MLRS launchers on the battlefield?
The Astros set a single season ticket record a couple of days ago. Maybe the old rules don’t apply today like they did ten years ago for the Astros.
The old plan worked, but it might be time to revise the old plan into a new plan based on today’s money.
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Back and forth on Bregman. The contract seems like it would be out of bounds.
But I also think of the playoffs. He has just a .235 career average in the playoffs but he has only struck out 64 times in 97 games and does have 19 postseason dingers along with a .345 OBP. He is a quality at bat in a critical situation that anyone that replaces him won’t be as much.
I would agree with OP, he is the problem today, and they should try and solve today’s problem without worrying how it affects tomorrow. As out of bounds as Bregman’s deal might have to be, Tucker’s will probably be worse. I can see someone giving Tucker 12 years.
Hader has proven that the Astros consider this window still wide open and not winding down. And Crane isn’t as scared of the cap as we initially believed.
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And Espada officially named Hader the closer today. I don’t think that was any surprise though.
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I think the Astros will offer Bregman a contract that is structured like Altuve’s, which is front-loaded in the early years and declining in value in the later years. But I think other teams will offer him more money and more years. I’d put his chances of staying with us at 20%.
BTW, his Baseball Reference player comps are Anthony Rendon and Kris Bryant. It seems to me that neither of those two players will produce anything close to what their contracts are paying them.
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The marching orders for Boras will be to get the most he can for Alex Bregman. Boras as much as said that on Jose Altuve Day. 1oldpro, I don’t think there will be a good for Bregman good for the Astros contract approach. And Jim Crane will respond accordingly.
I hope Bregman has a great free agent season. That’s a win-win for the Astros and Alex.
Obviously, I was sold on making a couple of big trades during the past off season. But at this point, I’m looking forward to having Bregman at third and Framber on the hill in 2024.
As Dan so clearly noted, there will be no replacement for Bregman next year. We’ll have to make a significant compromise at third base in 2025 and beyond. But we’ve wrung our hands over big losses in past years. We’ve more than survived. We can get better at places like first base and center field. We can get stronger on the mound.
We’ll manage.
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Chas showed up in West Palm five days early leaving his new bride and Valentine’s Day behind. I trust she’s solidly behind our left and or center fielder.
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The Astros report that Verlander and JP France are behind schedule and dealing with inflammation issues.
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Yeah sarge and AstroNut posted about that yesterday – just before this new post went out. The JV one to me sounds like he had inflammation earlier in the off-season, which threw him off-schedule – but is not necessarily sore right now. J.P. sounds like he is sore right now.
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So who plays third base next year if Bregman is gone? I’m thinking Dubon is not an answer, even temporarily, because he simply does not hit enough and might cost 5 million and that would be too much for a utility man on the Astros.
As Dan noted yesterday, third basemen do not grow on trees. There are very few hot corner guys even on the FA list for 2025. Joey Wendle anyone?
I guess Grae Kessinger is the emergency guy in 2024 if Breggy goes down with an injury. Maybe he’d show something with daily play, so he might be in the 2025 conversation.
Will Wagner does not really have the arm but might hit enough, at least for average, with a pretty good eye. Zach Dezenzo might have enough arm, but will he get on base enough? Any chance the Astros use both guys as they continue to work towards a long term solution? If Dubon is gone, there would be plenty of work for both Meyers and Dezenzo.
I sure hope both guys keep refining their hitting and infield skills at Sugarland this year.
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I meant to say Wagner rather than Meyers. No, I can’t envision Jake at third.
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I would think a couple of things is going to happen.
First – the Astros are going to make a legitimate offer. They just gave Hader 5 years. They see a different window than I did just a month ago. I assumed Tucker, Bregman and Framber would all walk. Signing Hader and Altuve both for the foreseeable future changes my thought that they are going to let all 3 walk. Tucker is the best and most impactful of the three, by far, but he is also the most expensive, by far, and easiest to replace. I think they see what you see, and know they have a window – I think they make a legitimate effort.
Second – they have to be prepared for that effort to fail. Dezenzo, Wagner, etc., are not plans, they are prospects. The Astros got really lucky with Pena when they made that a plan when Correa left, it could happen again with Dezenzo. I like what I see to this point, K rates seem OK, walks some, .294 career BA shows some bat to ball, and he has power. No idea how he handles the bag, but he has a ways to go. Prospects can’t be plans.
I assume, if Bregman walks, Dezenzo would be a part of a group the Astros look at. I also think they could make a trade, but those few years of being punished at the top end of the draft and losing picks has left the farm not the same. Corey Julks has only 47 games in the minors at 3B, but it at least opens up options. Wagner has 69 games at 3B in the minors and at least better defensive metrics than Julks. I think the plan has to come from outside the organization – and if Dezenzo earns a look, it’s a good problem to have. But you make them earn it.
I personally would not be opposed to giving Dubon the job – defensively he can handle anything on the field that doesn’t require a mask. Offensively he is OK, but a significant downgrade – but you are going to have a significant downgrade no matter what. At least with Dubon you can expect a .260/.300 line with 10-15 HR, and good things in other places like defense, baserunning, just baseball IQ. Maybe Dezenzo is the plan with Dubon as the fallback if Dezenzo ends up back AAA in July because he is hitting .190.
I’ll say this about Wagner – he is the next guy I am most excited about. I love guys whose ratios don’t change level to level. A ball – 33 Ks in 31 games, High A – 41 in 45, AA – 104 in 125 games, and the short stint at AAA – just 2 in 6 games. Career .291 that did see a small drop in AA – but not enough at .277 to concern me. He continued to draw walks. The numbers tell me to trust his approach – I don’t think he is Yainer but how many are?
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Good point about Wagner and Dezenzo. They are indeed prospects. I like both because by all accounts, both guys have a good understanding of the game. Dezenzo has four years at Ohio State and Wagner has a whole life of breakfast table knowledge. Success for either guy is probably somewhat of a long shot but pedigree and solid baseball IQ can’t hurt.
A couple of days ago I came across Baseball America’s projected Astro lineup for 2027.
Brice Matthews is on third. Dezenzo at first. Tucker still out in right. Melton in CF. Baez in left. Yainier, Yordan, Jose and Pena fill in the other slots. That sure would be a fun, athletic group.
BA says Will Wagner has best hit for average tools. He’d probably be our super deluxe utility guy at that point.
There are a bunch of other names mentioned too. It’s hard not be enthusiastic about the Astros, even four years down the road.
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2029 can’t come soon enough:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/rob-manfred-not-planning-to-seek-another-term-as-mlb-commissioner.html
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On the radio – one of the commentators was reading the news flash that Manfred was going to retire after …..2029. The other guy pitched in and said in his mind he thought he was going to say after 2024 or 2025.
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Based on history, a commissioner can do a lot of damage in five years.
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Steven – one thing about Espada announcing that Hader was the main closer – he said he brought both Hader and Pressly in and told them this together and discussed it with them. I like that.
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Right – its why he said at the time of the signing that he didn’t know what was going to happen. He did. He just wanted to wait until he had them together at ST, put them in a room, discuss it before he made a public acknowledgement that Hader was the guy. The whole organization was on the same sheet of music of not saying anything publicly about Pressly being displaced until ST and they could sing the same song. As bad as his in game management could be this is the kind of thing that I hope Dusty left as a legacy; Espada was his right hand for a long time. How to handle guys. Protecting ego’s – people can think that’s a bad thing – protecting ego’s – but they don’t understand how ego = confidence and confidence standing on a mound is, maybe outside of a 98 MPH fastball, the single most important trait you have because it decides command. When I stood on a mound and stared down a mitt, and I had confidence, I didn’t THINK about the spot I was trying to hit or the grip or the movement, I just did it – the times I lost confidence, I started gripping tighter and trying to aim, and the pitch went where I didn’t want it to go and it just got worse. You got to protect guys, especially pitchers.
Dusty was generally really good at this unless it had to do with banana pudding.
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One thing that is discussed over and over is how the Astros were devastated at losing four draft choices during the 2020 and 2021 drafts. The choices were at the bottom of the first and second rounds of the two drafts, places where diamonds are rare. Looking back over the 58 drafts that the ASTROS were involved in, I find only 13 first rounders, that the club chose, made any significant impressions with the club. And of those 13, only 11, IMHO, made a lasting contribution to the club. That is a 19% result of their first round choices, throughout the ASTROS first round draft history where their choice was a hit.
The reasoning of this post is that we all know draft choices are a hit or miss and most are misses. I grow weary of reading about how the lack of 2020 and 2021 first and second rounds missed draft choices have hurt the club. Nonsense! The trading of prospects and drafting at the lower end of each draft, in recent years, is why the minors are where they are.
No need to fuss at me, I just wanted to get that off my chest…
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The one thing I would say sarge is that the value of draft choices can be beyond making it to the big leagues for the Astros. Sometimes their value is as prospects who are attached to a trade, whether they make it big or not.
Daz Cameron (1st rounder) and Jake Rogers (3rd round) allowed us to get JV in the first trade and Drew Gilbert – (1st round) allowed us to get JV in the second trade.
Seth Beer (1st round) JB Bukauskas (1st round) and Corbin Martin (2nd round) helped us get Greinke.
Did any of these guys make it big in the majors? No (we don’t know on Gilbert yet) – but their pedigree as high draft choices made them attractive in trades that brought great value to the Astros.
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Drafts have always been hit and miss. Aiken and Appel were dismal picks. Correa worked. Bregman was drafted with the comp pick for not signing Aiken at 2, worked out. Tucker was 5th that same year, worked out. So 3 of the 5 that we drafted at the very top worked out. Springer was an 11th pick, worked out.
I think the point is Seth Beer was a 28th pick. Drew Gilbert was a 28th pick. Korey Lee was a 32nd pick. They were all used as trade assets to improve the club, even if none of them were impactful here themselves. And those 28-32nd picks, for two years, are missing, and they could be a Gilbert that brings you something back, even if its a mid-tier third baseman.
Think about this – in 2020 the 29th pick of the draft was Bobby Miller. As a rookie this year – 11-4 with a 3.76 ERA and is expected to help anchor the Dodgers staff in 2024. Maybe, just maybe we had selected Austin Wells instead of the Yankees in 2020 down there at 28 – he would have saved us from having to sign Caratini or even playing Salazar last year. Of course he might also have kept Yainer at AAA last year, so you never know where it goes. Maddux Bruns was a 30th pick that is 21 with a 12.2 K/9 in the minors, even if he cant throw a strike yet to save his life, he could be a tradable asset. Ty Madden was selected 32nd as a comp pick at the end of the round in 2021, and would probably be our best pitching prospect if he was in our system.
The Astros have not done well in the draft in late picks (or even early ones all the time). Doesn’t mean there aren’t jewels down there though like Miller or Wells that could be trade assets or even impactful players, and 2 years of not getting a chance at some of those guys hurts our assets whether they are trade assets or depth at the MLB roster.
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I think there’s a huge difference between the group of Springer, Correa, and Bregman and singular player of Altuve. The only way the first three are getting into Cooperstown is if they buy a ticket. Altuve needs to follow the Craig Biggio path to make it, but he has a shot if voters aren’t too sanctimonious. Alex Bregman has been a great player in Houston who we occasionally complain about. I think a better comp for Bregman than the ones you mention is actually HOFer Scott Rolen. The difference is that Rolen has 8 gold gloves to go with his strong, but not amazing, offensive stats. So if you’re looking at an extension for Bregman it has to be on the merit of how many games he can help you win over the 8+ years he’s going to be seeking. It may backfire and he’ll end up with 5 from Arizona and never see the postseason again post-Astros career.
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Saying the right things
https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/ryan-pressly-talks-josh-hader-addition-new-role
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Jim Crane – winning more fans to his side.
https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/astros-jim-crane-yainer-diaz-18671518.php
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Fangraphs projections are treating Diaz worse than Baker did. I hope he has a great season and amazes the experts.
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Currently this AM, the last 5 posts on MLBTR are notifications of major league players signing minor league contracts.
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Good morning OP – yeah that is players panicking a bit as they don’t have a date to the prom and wanting to find someone who might have a spot by the end of Spring Training
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The Astros traded money for a prospect a few days ago. Oliver Carillo is a 22 year old who has only played in the Dominican Summer League for San Diego. His numbers there have been very good, but, why was he available.
Anyway, here is the scoop:
https://www.mlb.com/astros/roster/transactions
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