It was the summer of 2011, and things were very grim for Astros’ fans. The team was on the way to a club record worst 56-106 record, which would be followed by club worst 55-107 and 51-111 seasons. In the middle of despair, the team jumped three players from AA to the big club, JD Martinez, Jimmy Paredes, and Jose Altuve.
Altuve debuted on July 20 and quickly became a fan favorite. The baby-faced ballplayer was sized like a middle schooler but could hit, unlike anyone else in the club. Back then he would seemingly swing at anything but connected with almost everything. He had little power (2 HR in 221 ABs) and rarely walked (5 in 57 games), but he held a .300 BA through the end of August, and though he fell off in September, folks really were falling in love with the mighty might.
He played well in 2012 as the only Astros All-Star representative, then fell off in 2013 with lower numbers in most stats, below .700 OPS, higher K’s lower walks and leading the league in caught stealing. It led some idiot named Dan P to question his future…..
Dan on the problem at second base: The Altuve Conundrum – ALL THINGS ASTROS (chipalatta.com)
Should we trade him? He’ll never make the Hall of Fame….
Maybe Dusty is right about us incompetents who write the blogs.
But as we did note in there, he was only 23 years old in the middle of a sad sack lineup and may have been trying too hard to carry the load with the worst team the Astros ever put on the field.
In 2014, he started on an incredible run. Seven All-Star teams, six Silver Sluggers, one Gold Glove, three top five MVP finishes, including a win, three times leading the league in batting average and becoming a sterling citizen and great teammate.
Jose Altuve: Astros’ MVP by the numbers – ALL THINGS ASTROS (chipalatta.com)
Altuve leads the Astros to World Series matchup with the Nats – ALL THINGS ASTROS (chipalatta.com)
How does Altuve stack up against Biggio? – ALL THINGS ASTROS (chipalatta.com)
Jose had signed a low-key extension (4 years / $12.5 million) back in 2013 when he was just starting off, and then the biggest Astros extension to that time in 2018 (5 years/ $151 million). But one of the main questions swirling around the team this off-season had to do with potential extensions for Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez.
Well, as they say, one domino has fallen, though it might be the only one to fall this off-season or at all. Altuve signing that five-year / $125 million extension ties him to the Astros through his age 39 season in 2029. This was the signing most folks assumed would happen of the four, and it is the one that means the most to the fans, even if signing a younger man like Tucker might bring more to the team in the long run.
But morale-wise, this one may be the most important to the team for the near future. Jose Altuve has been the straw that stirred the Astros drink and led their offense over the years, including last season when he missed a lot of time to injury, but stepped back in and played at an incredibly high level. This culminated in his huge game-winning home run in Game 5 of the ALCS that lifted the team to the cusp of the World Series (we will ignore Games 6 and 7).
Will he reach the same heights in the future? Will he limp toward the 3000-hit mark like Craig Biggio did at the end of his contract? I think most of us think he will always give his all, and that time will probably erode his skills and his production. But if we can get 80-90% of a prime Jose Altuve down the road, we will take it.
Jose Altuve Forever seems like a fine motto for the man who may be the greatest Astros ever.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
24 responses to “Jose Altuve Forever”
It becomes more and more rare that a player remains with his original club throughout a career. Altuve is a bit unique in that we all knew a deal would get done at some point.
Jose will keep hitting into the foreseeable future. And his defensive will continue to decline. He’s the guy I want as my DH when Yordan is in left field. Jose gets an easy night. Dubon plays Gold Glove second base.
It’s hard to project just how much Altuve will produce in those 35, 36 and 37 year old seasons when he’s making 30 million a year, but someone has. I’d like to see those numbers. I’m confident he’s got more left in the tank than a guy like Biggio though. The Astros squeezed everything and more out of number 7. Jose is the better hitter. And he’s still pretty frisky. If we get what Dan hopes for, 80 to 90% of prime Altuve down the road, we’ll really be celebrating him. And those two 10 million seasons at 38 and 39? He might be our full time DH in 2029. And he’ll hit. He still might be a bargain.
3000 hits? I don’t really care. I want a healthy, rested Altuve that will help us win another championship or two. I’m guessing he feels the same way.
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This signing certainly makes me happy and also gives me hope that Crane can somehow extend Tucker. Didn’t Crane or Brown say that they also invented to offer Bregman?
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Crane has said both Tucker and Bregman will not leave without offers. Everyone has been silent as far as I know about Valdez.
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I think Altuve and his agent structured the contract to have 90% of it paid before his 38th birthday on purpose. I don’t think he will chase 3000 hits like Biggio did – I feel like when he thinks he is done, he is going to be done. Making the chunk of it paid earlier means he can retire at 38 if he feels like he can’t do it and not hurt his agents feelings (or his pocketbook).
To get to 3000 in the time he has left he has to average 159 hits a year. He has only gotten to that number twice in the last 6 years. He hasn’t crossed 150 games since 2017. That number is not likely to get better. His eye will slow, probably by 36, where it’s likely he won’t be able to post .300 seasons after that mark. I assume 3000 hits is something he would like to do, but he needs a 2 big years, where he gets to 170+ and hits .315+ and plays a lot. If he doesn’t get those up front, he probably won’t get them on the back end.
I think Crane is fine letting Pressly and Bregman walk at the end of the year. He is going to live just one year over the cap and be back below it. I think he, and we all, hope JV pitches into his option, partly because the Mets will be responsible for a large chunk, and it will mean at least a good season from him. I’m sure no one in baseball wishes ill will on anyone, but if JV ends up on the DL for anything I doubt he will get a “get well soon” card with postage from New York.
It’s my opinion Tucker’s price needs to be met. 6-4, 200 lbs, consistent, and consistently taking small steps every year towards better. Turned 27 a few weeks, and will be in his prime for the next 6-7 years. I don’t even think we have seen the best of Tucker yet. Framber will be the victim of signing Tucker though. Tucker is likely to take the air out of the cap even with Framber and Abreu off it by the time any new contract kicks in.
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We still have our leadoff guy and our leader.
He gave us a huge discount on his last two years.
He proved the boos don’t matter to him.
His deal might show a way for the others to stay.
He can break the playoff HR record with us.
Others wanted him gone from here. He will keep beating them.
He is my favorite Astros player. And my Granddaughter’s
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Jose was my Father’s favorite. And my Father was not easily impressed. I know where I got the cynic in me. But Jose was an overachiever. And when Jose struggled in his early days with the Astros, my Father kept reminding that he most always made contact. He knew the hits would come. He loved the enthusiasm and the apparent joy Jose showed just being on the field in the big leagues.
Altuve is easily my favorite Astro too, not just for what he continues to accomplish on the field. Integrity, humility, loyalty. Those things too.
And when I celebrate my Father’s Birthday on May 6, I always raise a toast to Jose Altuve. I think it’s pretty cool they share that same date.
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I think this was both too much money and a reasonable amount at the same time. The difference between this and the Bobby Witt, Jr., extensions is that the Astros are going to want to keep Altuve for the lifetime of his contract whereas the Royals are likely expecting to move him in the latter, expensive years. I do think Crane and Altuve are expecting this gives him a chance to chase and reach 3000 hits in an Astros uniform. I agree with Steven’s analysis that it would likely come after the end of this extension. The question in my mind is not whether he will fall off a cliff offensively, but rather whether he can hold up defensively through the end. Going back to the Biggio comment the other day, he definitely looked old in his age 41 season, but hit really well at home. His road numbers were atrocious. My hope is that as the power fades Altuve will accept it and go back to collecting more singles rather than making too many easy outs.
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I don’t think Altuve will hang around with a .251 BA and a .666 OPS in order to collect 3000 hits.
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But what about .255 BA and a .670 OPS?
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In Craig Biggio’s last seven seasons, he picked up 1091 hits, finishing with 3060. His average OPS+ over those seven years was 94. I just don’t think Jose would want to become that kind of a hitter.
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I believe that signing Altuve to his deal will lead to Bregman resigning with the Astros.
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I keep looking at stats.
Bregman continues to have great stats in chase rate (95th percentile), Whiff (98th) K percentile (96th), BB (89th). And batting run value is at 94th. I don’t know who in MLB is better. His selectiveness at the plate makes a huge difference in his overall offensive value.
But then you have exit velocity at 36th percentile
Barrel rate at 21st
Hard hit at 33rd
Baserunning run value at 07th percentile
Arm strength is at 26th
Sprint speed at 24th
But then his range is in the 78th percentile.
That tells me he’s smart, has great hands and still comes in on the ball as well as any third baseman.
My only question is this: Is he beginning his decline?
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His history of all his stats increasing in the second half of the season indicates to me that his stamina is there and would probably hold up until his post age 34 season. Basically, for at least five years.
But, to me, it is less about individual stats and more about team-building. If you have Altuve and Bregman hitting in front of big RBI guys, you are going to remain a machine. And if you have a decent hitter in the 8 and nine spots, that machine is going to thrive. We have been operating with a pitcher’s bat in the #9 slot for several year now, basically wasting our DH.
Maybe we could utilize all of our available lineup horsepower for the next couple of years.
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Trying to post this a second time – the commenters wander back to the Astros and the “everybody is doing it “ argument.
I do believe the Mets are not the only ones but it sounds like they had their own Mike Fiers on this one.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/billy-eppler-placed-on-ineligible-list-through-2024-world-series.html
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The absence of a Drellich/Rosenthal factor kept this under wraps and allowed MLB to protect one of it’s darlings, the Mets.
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Oh man, it’s so funny with 100% hindsight to read some of our comments in the 2013 article that Dan wrote. Here’s a random sample. Random hindsight comments in the square brackets:
The specter of the Joe Morgan trade has always hung over this franchise, but I’m pretty sure Altuve is not the OBP machine that Morgan was and will not be headed to the Hall of Fame. [hmm]
No need to trade him now. I still think he can be a .300 hitter. [he can indeed]
Dan, yes, he’s our second baseman until we have someone better. [that will be in 2029]
It is discouraging to think that Altuve, JMartinez, and Paredes – all three after such an exciting start – might all turn out to not be able to hit in the majors. [one third right anyway]
He isn’t a superstar in the making. [oh]
Not only is Altuve a bad second baseman, which he is [only stopped the grounder and threw to first for the final out this winning game 7 of the 2017 WS]
He is not the second baseman of the future. Delino DeShields is. [er, er, ]
Don’t think he is the team guy that he’s been pointed out to be. [er, er ]
Damn, Mr Toothpick was right.
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Gosh, I hope I wasn’t the one to make that Delino DeShields, Jr remark!
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Yeah, Simon – when I want a humility lesson, I will often wander back to old posts.
There are sometimes when we hit it out of the park and other times when we think A.J. Reed will be our next great 1B.
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Testing 1,2,3
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Hello Simon, great to hear from you!
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If Dana says Chas is going to be full time this year and Dana and Joe say Jake is going to get more playing time in center and Joe says he’d like to have Yordan play more left in order to give other guys rest at DH, how does this all work out?
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Well Dave – I think we can turn to this column in the Chron.com (Spit! Spit!) where the answer is that Joe Espada can’t wait to get down to Spring Training and figure this out.
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Haha, you know Dan, I had not read that chron.com piece as normally I’m blocked from reading that stuff for free.
But you know, I think Dusty kept it simple. He just screwed Chas. 2024 sounds far more confusing.
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