,

Astros 2024: What about Ryan Pressly?

Since Josh Hader signed his 5-year/ $95 million free agent contract, we have not really heard from the closer emeritus Ryan Pressly.

We’ve heard Hader saying all the right things about sharing the closer’s role after the signing.

Josh Hader explains prior closer-only plan, Astros flexibility in 2024 (msn.com)

We’ve heard Dana Brown explain that he talked to Pressly before the signing to tell him what was coming and that Pressly was supportive of bringing in the big lefty arm of Hader.

Houston Astros Boss Dana Brown Gives Insight Into Selling Ryan Pressly on Josh Hader Pursuit – Sports Illustrated Inside The Astros

We have not heard directly from Pressly since the signing. Reportedly he is a great teammate and a rock in the clubhouse, but he must wonder what role exactly he will take in the bullpen and really if it is fair.

Hader is younger, throws harder, is coming off a much better regular season (1.28 ERA vs. 3.58 ERA in 2023), and, for what it is worth, is getting paid more in 2024 than Pressly.

But Pressly still must wonder what the team may owe him, especially as one of the few relievers in the team’s history to actually come through in the playoffs for this team. His overall numbers in the playoffs for the Astros has been a solid 3-0 with a 2.22 ERA. But since he took over as the full time closer for the team in 2020 he has made 31 appearances and is 1-0 with a 0.79 ERA and 14 saves.  In his last 27 appearances since the 2020 ALCS, he has given up 2 runs (1 earned) in 29 innings.

That is really strong.

And for this team that is something that has been lacking for a lot of their playoff appearances.

1980 – In the fourth game of the NLCS with the Astros 1 game from the World Series, Vern Ruhle pitched well, but got in trouble in the eighth and Dave Smith couldn’t put out the fire and even though Joe Sambito did, the Phillies tied it 3-3. They left Sambito in too long, and the Phils won 5-3 in extra innings. In the fifth game, they had another three-run lead going into the eighth. Nolan Ryan got in trouble, and again, the bullpen could not stop the bleeding until they were losing 7-5. The Astros came back to tie it, but the bullpen lost it in the 10th.

1986 – In Game 3 of the NLCS against the Mets, Bob Knepper blew a four-run lead in the sixth inning, the Astros took back a 5-4 lead, but closer Dave Smith blew the save and the game in the ninth. In game 6, Bob Knepper and Dave Smith gave away a three-run lead in the ninth (more Knepper’s fault than Smith’s), and seven innings later, Aurelio Lopez and Jeff Calhoun (why?) combined to give up 3 runs, which was 1 run more than the Astros scored in the bottom of the 16th and the Mets avoided Mike Scott and moved on to beat the Red Sox in the World Series.

1998 – In the key Game 3 of the NLDS against the Padres, Scott Elarton gave up the go-ahead run on a Jim Leyritz homer in the seventh and the series was basically over.

2001 – Game 1 of the NLDS against the Braves, Michael Jackson (really liked his music) blew a 3-2 lead in the 8th and Billy Wagner gave up a home run dagger to seal the loss. The Astros never could climb back into this series.

2004 – Game 1 of the NLCS against the Cardinals and a 4-4 tie quickly got out of hand with 6 runs given up by Chads – Qualls and Harville. In Game 2, starter Pete Munro and Harville blew a 4-0 lead and then Dan Micelli gave up the 2 winning runs in the 8th. Micelli then gave up 2 runs in the 12th of Game 6 as the Cards tied up the series 3-3. The Astros missed their first WS appearance by losing Game 7 behind Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt.

2005 – The famous Albert Pujols blast off Brad Lidge in Game 5 did not cost the team the NLCS against the Cardinals as the Astros came back to win Game 6. But it could easily have cost them the World Series or at least a good start to the WS as it forced Oswalt to pitch Game 6 of the NLCS and not Game 1 of the WS. In Game 2 of the WS with the Astros in a 1-0 hole, Dan Wheeler and Chad Qualls blow a 4-2 lead in the seventh and after the Astros tie it – Brad Lidge gives up a walkoff homer to Scott Podsednik in the 9th. Game 3 the bullpen does a masterful job for seven innings, but finally succumbs with Ezequiel Astacio allowing 2 runs in the 14th. In the fourth game – eighth inning, Brad Lidge gives up the only run in a 1-0 loss that completes the sweep.

2015 – In Game 2 of the ALDS against the future champion KC Royals, Will Harris gives up the winning run in the 7th inning. In the famous Game 4, the Astros are so close to going on to the ALCS with a 6-2 lead headed to the 8th, but Will Harris and Tony Sipp (with an assist from rookie Carlos Correa) give up 5 runs and the lead. Josh Fields gives up a couple more in the 9th to nail the lid shut. There is a Game 5, but the Astros surrender fairly meekly.

2017 – It is hard to remember, but the back end of the bullpen is such a shambles that the Astros eventually have to resort to using Brad Peacock in Game 3 of the WS against the Dodgers and Charlie Morton in Game 7 to close out the games with multi-inning saves. Their other two wins are Game 2, where closer Ken Giles gives up a two-run lead in the tenth and Chris Devenski almost gives up a 2 run lead in the eleventh, and Game 5, where Brad Peacock gives up a run in the seventh and another in the eighth to keep the game close, and Devo gives up three in the ninth to tie it. This does not even include the Game 4 loss, where Ken Giles disappears forever after melting down in a 1-1, ninth-inning tie – leading to a 6-2 loss.

2018 – In Game 3 of the ALCS against the Red Sox, closer Roberto Osuna turns a 3-2 squeaker into an 8-2 laugher in the 8th inning. In Game 4, Josh James is asked to go a little too long in relief and gives up 3 runs, Pressly and McCullers give up a run each, and the Astros fall 8-6. The Astros fall in game 5 and the Red Sox and their can-banger manager Alex Cora go on to win it all.

2019 – Game 7 of the World Series against the Nationals, and we remember that bullpen failure. It was 2-0 Astros heading into the seventh. Greinke gives up a homer and a walk and A.J. Hinch brings in Will Harris while Gerrit Cole was waiting in the bullpen. Harris gives up a go-ahead homer that barely made it into the stands, Osuna gives up a run and Joe Smith gives up two and the Nats went on to be World Champs.

The point is that what Pressly has done in the playoffs since he became the closer is unprecedented in a club history that has seen the failures of Dave Smith, Billy Wagner, Brad Lidge, Ken Giles, Roberto Osuna, and almost any other relievers they have thrown at the situation. His work in the 2022 playoffs, including the World Series against the Phillies led a bullpen that was a difference maker.

In the end, the Astros have three relievers in Hader, Pressly, and Bryan Abreu, who have shown they can close games or pitch in the highest leverage situations. Hopefully, their new manager, Joe Espada, can find a way that helps the team the most and recognizes what each of them can bring to the party.

 

←
→

45 responses to “Astros 2024: What about Ryan Pressly?”

    • In all truth – Chip posts these for me and he is able to log in ahead and have it post at a particular time in the future – usually the next morning.

      Now last week I had some off time comments because I was up at 2 AM three days in a row in meetings with Europe and the Middle East

      Like

      Reply

  2. What a painful read to get the day going! I had somehow mentally blocked out most of that misfortune and tucked it away.

    I initially wondered if spending 95 million on Hader over the next five years was the best way for the Astros to strengthen the bullpen. What if Dana Brown had had 20 million a year to spend in 2 and 3 year deals instead? After a few mind boggling contracts for relievers, the market has softened. Hader certainly gives us a better pen on paper than it was before we committed the 95 to him, but Dan, will it work?

    Both Pressly and Abreu have had to re-evaluate their roles on the 2024 club. Are they as pumped up as they were a couple of weeks ago? We’ve got three back end of the pen guys that are as good as any club has, but even if we can use two of them a night, we still have to account for the 7th inning and 6th and sometimes 5th. Who steps up? Not Phil. We’ve still got a good sized hole in the pen as of today even after spending that 95 million, and more importantly, it’s possible that a couple of guys are not all that thrilled.

    And I still believe this is 100% a Crane signing, or at least a Crane and “advisors” deal, just like Verlander was in July. While I’m excited about what Hader potentially brings to the club, the larger implication for me is that Dana Brown might not have all that much ownership of his role. Is it becoming a theme with the Astro organization?

    Like

    Reply

    • I don’t think anyone can argue that if could have just brought back all 3 of Neris, Maton and Stanek for considerably less money than you just spent on one guy and you might be better for 2024. Maybe not even might, maybe probably.

      Maybe if Brown knew he could have had all 3 of them back for 16M instead of 19M for one guy, maybe he does it. Maybe Hader is who he wanted to begin with.

      I think this move is about having what you think and hope will be a top 3 closer for 4 playoff runs in the next 5-6 years. And you can try and repair some of this when Pressly’s 15M comes off the books as soon as next year.

      I would have went with option A only because I have Abreu. They went with option B, and they still have Abreu. 95M is a gamble that you can piece together the “get to him” pieces. I am more concerned with 2024, but less concerned by this move with 2025-2027.

      And I am like you, I can not for the life of me figure out why Maton is not back. That 4 1/3rd inning start you alluded to in the last post, with guys like Brown and France in your rotation they are prone, and even Framber has them, and CJ, and you are right, now they are looking at handing the ball to a Seth Martinez instead of Phil. It’s the small things that cost you games in pivotal moments.

      Like

      Reply

  3. If you ignore all the rest of the guys on the Astros pitching roster you will fret over having three closers.
    It is my belief the Astros are going to come out of spring training with a top notch bullpen. Give Brown a chance to pull it off.

    Like

    Reply

  4. I think Pressly is a team player and will do what Espada asks of him. He gets paid 14M whether he pitches the 1st, 5th, 8th or 9th inning. I think he will be happy to get another WS ring and Hader gives the Astros a better chance for that.

    Same with Hader. He got his big contract, now he wants a ring. Maybe there will be games when some tough lefty batter(s) are due up in the 8th inning and you’d rather use Hader in that spot and then close with Pressly in the 9th.

    Interestingly, I see that Baseball Reference has Josh Hader’s comp as Billy Wagner, and Ryan Pressly’s comp as… Hector Neris!

    Like

    Reply

  5. I’ve said my peace on Pressly. I think it’s just as likely that the brain trust looked at windows and realized Pressly’s was closing, and the window for the Astros is not in the immediate future. Hader hasn’t been the best reliever in the league for years, but he was last year, and at 29 sits squarely in his prime. Pressly has declining velocity, declining strikeout rates, climbing hard hit percentages, and an elevated ERA. Could he have given us another 30 save season, absolutely. He isn’t going to fall off the cliff this year (at least I hope not). But you are replacing a closer that is somewhere around middle of the pack in terms of closer ratings with the guy that is top 3, and you have him for what should be his best years.

    Still, Bryan Abreu is the best pitcher on this staff. Period. And it’s really not even that close. I hate WAR, as I hate most cumulative stats, but WAR is telling me that.

    Like

    Reply

  7. My larger concern is whether or not Dana Brown is making these decisions.

    But indeed, Pressly is definitely showing some decline. And it’s easy to argue Abreu and Hader make for a more solid back end of the pen at this point.

    Yes, I wanted Phil back. But as much as I like Hector, he was tough to watch at times. He gave us his best. The Cubs might not see the same Neris. And I think Stanek had his career year in 2022.

    So as advised by my friend 1oldpro, I’m going to sit back for now and allow our GM to build the middle of the pen I’m so concerned about.

    And I’m going to hope Jeff Bagwell does the same.

    Like

    Reply

  8. Bobby Witt Jr. just signed for 11 years at 288 million. He had a heck of a sophomore season at the plate.

    He’s got a 5.3 lifetime WAR. Jeremy Pena has an 8.7 WAR over the same time frame.

    Like

    Reply

      • Not at all, way too early, but across the way especially, there are a fair amount of folks that are already looking to replace Jeremy. All I’m saying is that he’s provided some great value so far. And if he replaces Martin Maldonado in the batting order, that’s a pretty big upgrade in the 9th slot.

        Like

      • I hope he at least bats before Jake Meyers – at least that is where I’d put him, but I get your point and agree with you – it will be a deeper lineup without Maldy in it.

        Like

      • When Yordan is in left, I presume Jeremy will be 9th. But now that I think of it, who hits 8th? Probably should be Abreu, but it might be Chas or Diaz. Pretty good line up.

        Like

      • dWAR makes up all the difference. Witt has 2.0 WAR more offensively for their careers. But Witt is terribly defensively.

        If I was a betting man, I would put money down that in 5 years someone will be very unhappy paying a guy that has a below league average OBP and could win an iron glove (they should make that an award) that salary. What happens if he stops running as much? He could, as he ages, become a homer or nothing guy that can’t play SS anymore (or is he now?).

        Now given their salaries – like Correa before he fell off – I would rather have Pena because he opens the door to other contracts. But the day is coming where the franchise (er, Brown, or Crane, or whoever is actually in charge) has to decide – do we give the .250 guy with 15 HR and league average OBP 8 figures? I guess there is plenty of time to see if he stays a league average hitter or gets better (or worse). Khalil Greene looked good for a while, and then, bam, gone.

        What if, right now, Pena would agree to say, 7/90? Would you do it?

        Like

      • I think the size of that Witt deal is premature. But he did show significant improvement defensively in 2023. And he hit. He’s a crowd pleaser when not striking out and booting grounders. He gets to them. One other thing, 49 SB’s is nice, but when you get thrown out 15 times, that’s only 70% success. And even Pena has a better OBP over those first two seasons. But maybe we’re getting overly picky. I don’t think a 23 year old has played his best baseball yet. And he does a lot of things very well. It’ll be interesting to watch him and Pena as they mature. I probably would do 7/90 with Pena, but I’m sure he’s betting on a much bigger payday in a few years.

        Like

      • Right I’m saying, 7/90 includes buying out one more pre-arb year, all 3 arb years, and 3 FA years. Say its like Witts, where it’s 1.5M this year, 3.5M next, 7 next, 10 next, to around 17M a before you get to where he would think his number is about that first FA year, its 22M a year after that. It helps the Astros smooth out his AAV for cap, and it helps him put more in his pocket now. Pretty similar to what they did for Alvarez.

        I would do it, because I don’t think Pena is a 22M player but I do think he can earn 13M a year as an AAV. And it makes SS a non-issue. I don’t think he will ever be an offensive carry type player, but he doesn’t need to be. Just be consistent. And if I end up wrong (say like a lot of us were in 2013 about JD!) we don’t find out the hard way.

        If he does what Tucker is reportedly looking at, and that’s live with the low salary now to strike big time gold in FA, more power to him – but he is no Kyle Tucker. Make the offer. The Braves locked Acuna this way, they locked up Reilly this way, they locked up Olson this way. Their core is together for the most part of the next 7-8 years. Not saying Pena is any of those, but you don’t pay him like those, you pay him fairly and make the position a non-concern. Because 3B and RF are soon to be concerns.

        Like

      • Camparing Pena to Witt is a fool’s errand. Steven is correct that Witt will not be playing SS for the entirety of the contract. He’s a poor man’s Tatis, Jr. without the failed PED test at this point. The contract is crazy, but you have to figure in that the Royals only have a $110M luxary tax hit this year and that Witt counts for $27M against it, but they’re only actually paying him $2M in 2024 with almost $8M in signing bonus tacked on. For the next three years he gets 7M, 13M, and 19M. After that it balloons to $30M, $35M, $33M, and finally $28M. KC can eat that contract because they won’t be paying anyone else over the duration. They likely will look to send him to NYY or LA in a few years if the power numbers are still good and they can convince someone else to eat it.

        Pena is going to have to hit. Defensively he can be the best SS in the league and can also be Villar 2.0 depending on whether his head is in the game. The Astros are counting on Brice Matthews becoming a big leaguer. The good news is he can stay at SS defensively, but the bad news is the bat has a ways to go. I saw him last summer for Fayetteville and he looked fine. He’s going to need a few years…which is exactly what Pena’s contract allows right now. Unless Pena drastically improves at the plate or Matthews hits the wall Brown has no reason to dangle any eight figure extensions his way.

        Like

    • I strongly disagree here. JDM looked fantastic as a 23 year old called up from AA with Altuve. His OPS was only .742 but he was making loud outs and generally looking like a hitter that was very close to figuring it out. It reminded me of Bagwell’s rookie season. The next two years he went downhill and was clearly not healthy – issues with his left leg/shin if I recall and inconsistent usage by the Astros. After trading for Dexter Fowler and LJ Hoes we didn’t have room for JDM and never gave him a look before moving him in 2014. Every time someone brings up Jeff Luhnow in a positive light I think we need to balance it with decisions like this or the Carlos Gomez trade.

      Like

      Reply

      • When I was reading about JDM in the book Astroball that I wrote about a few years ago – they basically said that JDM had completely changed up his swing in the off-season, but that Bo Porter hardly used him in spring training and they released him without seeing the transformation. No doubt that letting him get away and the Carlos Gomez/Mike Fiers (Spit!!) trade were the worst marks against Luhnow, though he made many plus moves too.

        Top 30 Astro moves under GM Jeff Luhnow

        Like

    • Interesting article – I hope they can figure out how he can move forward without blood thinners – reading it made me think about James Rodney Richards and his undiagnosed problems that led to that career ending stroke.

      Like

      Reply

  12. Phil Maton got 6.25 million from the Rays, with a club option for 2025 at 7.75 million. I can see why resigning him in Houston would have been ruled out pretty quickly.

    Like

    Reply

  15. Jose Altuve seems to have given his club a hometown discount. I’m very happy for Jose and his family and equally pleased for all Astros fans.

    Like

    Reply

    • One more little note on Ryan Pressly. A couple of days ago there was a brief article about Pressly driving through his neighborhood and seeing a kid with a glove and an Astro cap. He pulled over, got out of his car and started playing catch with the kid. I don’t know how many major league players have the time or inclination to react in such a way, but at the very least, it was a very cool Pressly moment that I’ll remember.

      Like

      Reply

  22. I loved what Altuve told McTaggert – “When I got called up in 2011, they it was something temporary until they find another second baseman….” think they found one.

    I can’t be thrilled about the prospect paying him an AAV of 25M through his age 37-38-39 seasons, but maybe he will be special, and still be hitting at a high clip. I just remember watching Biggio limp to the end with the occasional fastball deposited in the Crawfords but the rest of his at bats seeming cringeworthy.

    But 25M a year in today’s standards seems like a steal for a franchise defining star.

    Like

    Reply

Leave a reply to daveb7 Cancel reply