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ZiPS projections for the 2024 Astros

In one of those self-assignments, your loyal writer spent a bit of time comparing what most of the main Astros did in 2023 vs. what the ZiPS projections on Fangraphs say they will do in 2024.

2024 ZiPS Projections: Houston Astros | FanGraphs Baseball

Here are the pitchers first with their 2023 results on the first line and the projections to follow.  

Name Gm W L IP ERA HR Ks/9 IP WAR
F. Valdez – 2023 31 12 11 198.0 3.45 19 9.1 4.3
     2024 Proj. 29 14 8 185.7 3.34 16 8.1 3.9
J. Verlander -2023 27 13 8 162.3 3.22 18 8.0 3.3
     2024 Proj. 25 11 8 147.3 3.85 19 7.3 2.3
C. Javier – 2023 31 10 5 162 4.56 25 8.8 1.9
     2024 Proj. 29 8 6 21 4.06 21 9.2 1.9
H. Brown – 2023 31 11 13 155.7 5.09 26 10.3 1.8
     2024 Proj. 28 11 9 135.3 4.06 16 9.2 1.8
J.P. France – 2023 24 11 6 136.3 3.83 19 6.7 1.3
     2024 Proj. 26 8 7 125.3 4.16 17 8.6 1.5
J. Urquidy – 2023 16 3 3 63 5.29 11 6.4 0.2
     2024 Proj. 21 6 5 103 4.11 15 7.3 1.2
R. Pressly -2023 65 4 5 65.1 3.58 8 10.2 1.1
     2024 Proj. 55 5 2 53.7 3.35 7 10.4 0.8
B. Abreu – 2023 72 3 2 72 1.75 6 12.5 1.5
     2024 Proj. 62 3 2 66.7 3.24 7 12.7 1.0
R. Montero – 2023 68 3 3 67.1 5.08 11 10.6 0.1
     2024 Proj. 55 3 2 54.3 4.47 7 9.3 -0.1
S. Martinez – 2023 35 2 3 43 5.23 5 9.4 0.1
     2024 Proj. 46 3 2 57 4.11 7 9.2 0.1
L. Garcia – 2024 22 9 7 115.3 3.82 16 9.4 1.8
L McCullers – 2024 19 7 4 104.7 3.61 10 9.5 1.9

Observations….

  • Biggest predicted drops in WAR – Justin Verlander from 3.3 to 2.3 (driven by a 0.63 rise in ERA) and Bryan Abreu from 1.5 to 1.0 (driven by a 1.49 rise in ERA). I could see JV dropping some at 41 years old, but I have a problem seeing this big a drop for Abreu.
  • Somehow Hunter Brown drops his ERA a whole run and stays with the same WAR. This is driven by predicted less innings and a lower K/9 IP, but still….
  • Similarly, Framber Valdez, Ryan Pressly and Rafael Montero ride improved ERAs to worse WARs.
  • If Luis Garcia (115.3 innings) and Lance McCullers Jr. (104.7 innings) get anywhere close to that number of innings in 2024, I think we would take it right now, no questions asked.
  • One of the big winners here is Jose Urquidy, who gets back to similar numbers he had before his 2023 injury-filled season.

Here is a similar chart for the Astros’ position players comparing 2023 actuals to 2024 predictions.

Name ABs Runs HRs RBIs BA OBP OPS WAR
Jose Abreu – 2023 540 62 18 90 .237 .296 .680 -0.6
      Proj. 2024 498 62 17 77 .263 .329 .753 1.2
Jose Altuve 360 76 17 51 .311 .393 .915 4.0
      Proj. 2024 469 86 20 67 .277 .352 .819 3.4
Jeremy Pena 577 81 10 52 .263 .324 .705 2.8
      Proj. 2024 554 73 16 66 .249 .303 .689 2.3
Alex Bregman 622 103 25 98 .262 .363 .804 4.3
      Proj. 2024 552 91 22 88 .266 .369 .820 4.6
Chas McCormick 403 59 22 70 .273 .353 .842 3.8
      Proj. 2024 383 59 18 65 .258 .333 .777 2.9
Kyle Tucker 574 97 29 112 .284 .369 .886 4.9
      Proj. 2024 550 87 28 102 .275 .353 .858 4.1
Yordan Alvarez 410 77 31 97 .293 .407 .990 4.5
      Proj. 2024 483 92 36 109 .298 .393 .985 5.4
Yainer Diaz 355 51 23 60 .282 .308 .846 2.0
      Proj. 2024 407 52 18 68 .265 .299 .741 1.9
Mauricio Dubon 467 76 10 46 .278 .309 .720 1.9
      Proj. 2024 424 59 9 50 .262 .300 .682 0.6
Jake Meyers 309 42 10 33 .227 .296 .678 1.7
      Proj. 2024 349 47 11 48 .244 .309 .705 1.8

Observations….

  • Do I really believe that Jose Altuve will have 109 more at bats, but his WAR will drop from 4.0 to 3.4?
  • The only players showing WAR improvement are Jose Abreu (who had nowhere to go but up), Yordan Alvarez (who will ride more at bats to a bigger number) and Alex Bregman (who shows a little bigger slash, but less run production).
  • Yainer Diaz is shown with 52 more at bats, but a small drop in WAR. I have a problem after watching him last season seeing him with his OPS dropping more than .100.
  • Joe Espada will apparently channel his inner Dusty Baker as Chas McCormick does not show the full time ABs we are promised by Dana Brown. His production is shown as suffering, and he has a 0.9 drop in WAR.
  • Kyle Tucker decides he does not want to show how great he is as he gets ever closer to free agency and his numbers drop across the board.
  •  
  • In the end, these numbers could careen out of control based on injuries, regression, progression, slumps, slumps driven by injuries, and so many other things. It will be interesting to glance back at these predictions at the end of 2024 and see how close or how far they fall.
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40 responses to “ZiPS projections for the 2024 Astros”

  1. According to Fangraphs, these exact projections place the Astros just tad short of the Yankees for the highest total WAR in the AL.. Even dropping several WAR projections, the Astros are still considered elite.
    Apparently, Yanier was a much better player sitting on the bench last season than he will be this season actually playing.
    A healthy Altuve will not be as productive as an injured Altuve was last season.

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    • I mean – I could see that there might be some regression with Yainer after the folks catch up with him, but… looking at his minor league numbers, it might just as well be that he will even improve over those numbers in season 2 – especially when he will be playing more consistently and will not have all those one-off late inning pinch hitting appearances. He was only 3 for 16 in those appearances.

      Altuve? He hit .300 in 2022 and .311 in 2023 and he’s supposed to drop into the .270’s. Sure he may drop like a rock, but when we last saw him – he looked as good as he has looked since his MVP season.

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  2. I brought this comment forward from the last post that might get missed – it was made by Steven right before the new post came out and I enjoyed what he was saying here.

    Steven says:
    January 30, 2024 at 7:55 am
    I’m seeing reports that the Yankees offered Snell 6/150, and he countered with 9/270. Thats a lol contract. I probably would have spit out my coffee when Boras said that.

    In 2018, en route to that first Cy Young, he finished 16 games over .500. For his career, he is 16 games over .500. Go figure.

    It’s hard to win a lot of games even with great ERA’s if you have 5.1 innings a start. You hand a lot of games off to middle relievers that aren’t paid to be high leverage, and sometimes your offense just hasn’t gotten it going. 191 career starts, 71 wins. 37%. Verlander is at 50.4%. That is what hall of famers do. Snell is no hall of famer. Sure wants to be paid like one though.

    It wouldn’t surprise me if Snell ends up around 7/190 from the Yankees. I think they are only bidding against themselves in this though, and they know it, so maybe it stays at 6/150. There doesn’t appear to be another team making offers.

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  3. That’s why I don’t pay a whole lot of attention to future stats, assumed regression, etc. Across the way, it seems the discussion tends to be that the body of a players work is less important that future projections. I have a hard time excepting that, especially when we’re not talking about older guys.

    20 fewer innings from Hunter, 10 less homers. I do think he’ll be more than a pretty good pitcher in 2024.

    Somewhere I read that Reptil is in far better shape this year. If we get him back on track closer to his historical statistics, his WAR is going to be well above 1.9. He does need a new wrinkle though.

    Framber was a mess in the second half of 2023. Again, if we get him back close to his past work, we’re not going to see his WAR drop.

    I agree that Urquidy is going to give us a pretty good year with continued health.

    I think we get more from Garcia than Lance in 2024

    I have no idea what to expect from France.

    I wonder what Hader’s numbers are?

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  4. Projections are projections. They are going to get some right they are going to get some wrong. Sometimes they are tough for us to accept that our favorite players do not rate as highly to the computer that they do to us.

    While some will be right, some will be wrong, they get it right more than fans. In the macro, it tends to be right. ZIPS is kinder to the Astros then it is to some teams. That should give fans a lot of optimism.

    These formulas they spit out have a lot of tendencies that happen from experience and age. ZIPS will rate a 41 year old pitcher as a year older and expect regression. It’s built into their program. I don’t think ZIPS accounts for who that 41 year old is and just how committed he is. No doubt father time is undefeated but he rarely is in the ring with someone trying to take him the distance. I don’t expect an upper 3 ERA from JV, I expect a lower 3 ERA. Maybe even an upper 2. But again, thats the fan in me.

    I don’t have the expectation that Jose Abreu will be better. The computer is looking at previous numbers, looking at 36 to 37, and spitting out a number that suggests it isn’t father time. The guy I watched in the batters box all year long hit a record number of foul balls behind the first base dugout is a guy that still has bat speed but has lost a tick in his eye speed. Will I take a .263 season? Heck yea. Do I expect one? No. Everyone talks about how he got “better.” He hit .237 in the first half. He hit .238 in the second half. He hit .237 in September. He was terrible in April and May. He was much better in June and July. He showed power in September, particularly in a few spots we needed. He shows things with RISP because he is still a smart hitter, he knows what to look for, he walks in with an idea that he is going to get challenged a little more with runners on and he takes advantage, but the everyday, 1 out nobody on at bats where pitchers are at full repertoire, he isn’t the same hitter.

    These are all, like ZIPS, guesses. I think ZIPS moving down Pressly’s ERA is much like moving up Abreu’s BA. It’s age driven, but the stats behind the stats tell me its more. I think Pressly’s fall off from around 31% strikeout rate to 27% strikeout rate, and his exit velocity’s against, tell the story of someone that is just losing a smidgen of spin rate and velocity, and to big league hitters, they only need a smidgen. They can punish the smallest windows of regression. I don’t want to mince the difference between 3.58 and 3.35, its probably 2 runs in 55 innings. But the K rate is probably not going up, if anything, it’s probably going to stay the same or go down.

    But these are guesses, and I focus on the ones that I have negative feelings about. But I think they missed Altuve, who, though it’s not talked about the same way as Bregman, is also playing for a new contract, and is a phenom at the plate. He is a unicorn. I think he has a great year, better than these projections say. We could spend a week or more breaking these down on every player.

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  5. I think I’d be happy with a .753 OPS and fewer at bats from Abreu.

    I guess Altuve is going to miss a significant amount of games again. Throw out 2023 and there really is no explanation for that amount of regression. I also think Jose will get a fair amount of DH AB’s when Yordan plays left.

    I do not see Pena regressing in 2024. He made progress in 2023, especially with his BB/K ratios. I think we’ll continue to see improvement in that area. He might be hitting 9th most days. Who cares if he hits 10 homers? I’d rather see the OBP continue to climb.

    And yes Dan, Chas got too many AB’s last year. And Jake got too few. I don’t know if we’ll see Jake on the roster for the full season.

    Zips did not have the advantage of watching Yainer all year as we did. He kept getting better even as he caught less and DH’ed more. His OBP’s of .337 and .333 over the last two months tell me that we will continue to see improvement in his offensive game. And he will hit left handed pitching at some point.

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    • I feel like their computer doesn’t watch, it only projects on past performance, what age/experience progression or regression averages tell it, and it spits back out a number. Sometimes that works. In Yainer’s case, I agree with you. They didn’t watch. They just see a stat line and are trying to computerize it. I think he is the first guy like Altuve since Altuve in Houston’s system. His bat to ball is so good that he can overcome his questionable strike zone recognition by just punishing close pitches or bad strikes. That second part, questionable zone recognition, is going to improve. How well at what rate will depend on his work ethic, but when he does, he will be the number 1 catcher in baseball.

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      • Wonder why the computer suggests more at bats from Jake?

        I’m really looking forward to seeing what Diaz does both behind the plate and at the plate. One thing that has been overlooked as he sat in the shadows. He’s got a solid baseball IQ. He knows what he’s doing on the field. We won’t see him making many base running mistakes. And he moves pretty well for his build.

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  6. Daveb – here are the numbers for Josh Hader

    2023 actual – 2W-3L / 1.28 ERA/ 56.1 IP/ 3 HR/ 13.6 K/9 IP/ 1.7 WAR

    2024 proj – 4W-2L / 3.09 ERA/ 55.3IP/ 7 HR/ 13.0 K/9 IP/ 1.0 WAR

    I guess they wasted Jim Crane’s money

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    • In theory, his home park might well play somewhat of a role in that ZIP projection. And Baseball Reference has him with a 1.207 WHIP, unremarkable for a closer. Also a career low in K’s per 9. I just hope he’s as durable as Billy Wagner was. Everything else will take care of itself. But I’d still like to know how Dana Brown feels about the acquisition.

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      • You know when I think of Josh Hader I think about the 2021 World Series when a couple of leftys (Smith and Matzek) pitched out of their heads and killed us. I know that Hader is supposedly better than those guys, but I just like the idea of someone getting in the other team’s heads and making them go #$%^ I don’t want to see that guy again.

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  7. “In the end, these numbers could careen out of control based on injuries, regression, progression, slumps, slumps driven by injuries, and so many other things.”

    I believe that injuries would be the one thing that would keep the Astros from exceeding these projections. Offensively, we should be better at C, 2B, LF and DH compared to last season and about the same or not much drop off at the other positions.

    For our starting pitchers, I think more of them will have progression instead of regression. The back end of the bullpen is improved. Middle relief looks like a weak spot, but can likely be fixed at the trade deadline if needed. If LMJ and/or Garcia return, maybe we could trade Bielak and/or Blanco for younger prospects?

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  11. One nice exercise is to look at 2023 Zips projections and see how they turned out – here is some basics from it –

    Valdez – 14-7, 3.26 ERA 3.9 WAR
    Javier – 10-6 3.74 and 2.1 WAR
    Brown – 8-6, 3.78 and 1.7 WAR
    Urquidy – 10-7, 4.04 and 1.8

    They had Montero falling off some at 3.74 but not the crater that happened. They Abreu falling to a 3.75 and they were wrong. They had Neris at a normal Neris year and he turned in a very non-Neris year to our benefit.

    The hitters, much the same. They miss some. What I thought was cool – they had Yainer at .266 and 16 HR before anyone else was talking about the guy outside of Houston. They got Pena right. They got Abreu only down about half what he ended up down. They actually had Dubon at .262 before we did. They said Yordan was really good, but we all knew that. They had Maldonado at .181 lol. They missed big on Chas, putting him at .233 with 13 HR.

    They won some, they lost some. The one thing they don’t do is ever find the hidden gem. They either go with stand pat, small improvement or small fall off. They never find the Chas McCormicks of the world.

    Who has a chance to have a break out year this year?

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    • And an added note – Zips has no break outs from the minor leagues.

      They do project a lot of people to what they would do on the major league roster. Loperfido, Melton, Dezenzo, Salazar, Kessinger, Hensley, Whitcomb, Bannon, Wagner, Dirden, Leon, even Julks who did find some for a short time – none of them project with any success.

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  13. Good morning,

    Espinosa might be a pretty good pitcher when he grows into his 6’2″ frame, but he would not have helped in 2024. Cabbage might.

    Speaking of projections, it’s hard to find any that suggest Cabbage is ready to break out, but AstroNut, yeah, he’s an upgraded replacement over Jon Singleton, whether he’s playing everyday in Sugar Land or is on the bench with the Astros.

    Those AAA stats in 2023 are hard to ignore, but at the same time, the PCL is a happy place to hit. Cabbage will be a fun guy to watch in ST. If Jake remains lost at the plate, I could see some Cabbage in left and Chas in center full-time at some point. And if Abreu has back issues again, we’ve got a guy to put over there, even if he strikes out 40% of the time!

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  14. Cabbage is terrible. The Angels had released him before the Astros called and said, wait, we’ll take the flyer. He can’t tell a ball from a strike. This is a guy with a 4:1 ratio on K/BB. At low levels. He struck out 142 times in 474 plate appearances in a league where the pitchers are just trying to survive another inning. He has a not so small sampling in the minors and is a career .261 hitter IN THE MINORS. And that is buoyed by that .306 in the PCL, where everyone looks like a superstar.

    He is an upgrade over Singleton, because he can do things Singleton cannot (pinch run, play LF/RF, generally be more athletic). Singleton is better at drawing a walk.

    The Astros are better with neither of them. I would rather see Dirden or Loperfido or Melton added to the 40 man and have a chance to replace Singleton (and take playing time and/or replace Meyers). But they didn’t ask me.

    You know what this deal reminds me of? Something Ed Wade would do. I’m not going to sing the praises of Espinosa, he has very average numbers for a minor league pitcher, but he is 21. He has a road to travel before anyone pulls the plug and he ends up working at Autozone. We already have seen Cabbage perusing Indeed.com thinking about a second career when the Angels designated him, and Ed Wade swoops in and gives him life. Where are you when you get released by the Angels? Can anyone even name their starting OF outside of Trout (only if he feels like it this month)?

    Does anyone still have Tim Purpura’s number? I’m sure he has some genius ideas that can help move this franchise forward.

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  15. Cabbage seems like a better Bligh Madris, because of his versatility and speed. We kept Madris for a whole season and Cabbage has a lot of player control. Maybe Brown sees something us bloggers don’t. I think he has a lot more access to player evaluations than I do.

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    • Maybe.

      And there is an argument to be made roster wise – Espinosa is rule V draft eligible next year, and you either protect him or expose him. The Astros probably feel like he won’t be ready to be at that point because of some injuries that have slowed his progress, won’t protect him, but his arm is just live enough that someone may take him. In that regard he was an expendable piece. Knowing you are going to be moving two people to the 60 day DL the first day it opens means Cabbage isn’t really hurting you, and neither is Singleton still being there. And it at least gives you a look at a guy with all the pre-Moneyball attributes, ball comes off bat differently, can fly around the bases, etc. And they will still have two 40 man spots open for non-roster invitees that show off like Julks did last year.

      I wouldn’t have done it, because the 21 year old pitcher with a 10.5 K/9 is more important to me than the 27 year old OF’er with a 4:1 ratio. When all is said and done, maybe they both end up working at a gas station and it’s all a wash. If I had to hedge my bets on which one has the bigger chance of being a productive major leaguer one day, I would take Espinosa.

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  16. It is Feb 1st. ST starts in two weeks.
    There are still 4 of the Top 10 free agents not signed and they are
    Bellinger
    Snell
    Montgomery
    Chapman
    There are already 8 teams over the lowest Luxury Tax level and three of those are over the highest level. The spending is incredible.
    Half of the teams had their TV deals fall into bankruptcy.
    There is trouble ahead for baseball.

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  17. My question – if this guy is the new Singleton – why not release Singleton and hold onto Cronin when you are trying to replace so many reliever innings this season?

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    • I would expect that Cronin will get a non-roster invite to ST. Remember we are opening two spots first day eligible in Garcia and McCullers, so two non-roster invitees could get back on the 40 man. Kuhnel and Cronin would seem to be the best candidates. Someone could claim Cronin like the Yankees did Gage, but given that we are pretty low on the waiver wire priority – no one ahead of us claimed Cronin when the White Sox designated him, he could go unclaimed and be in camp (of course, he could end up in ANYONEs camp).

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  18. This is a very informative article. If I were the Astros, I would try to land Bellinger to offset the free agent losses we know are coming in the next two years.
    Brown has already stated what the Astros need and Bellinger fills that spot. None of our current stars has signed a deal, so why not start planning for the future now instead of getting disappointed in a year or two and have to deal from weakness rather than strength.
    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/which-teams-are-most-likely-to-sign-the-top-remaining-free-agents.html

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    • If I knew Bellinger was going to repeat 2023 multiple times, I would do it.

      I suspect that he is somewhere between the .165 guy we saw in 2021 and the .307 guy we saw last year. I think the reason no one has given him that 250M asking price is they don’t trust him either.

      I think he either ends up back in Chicago with the Cubs or he ends up in LA with the Angels, who could shift him to RF or put him at 1B. Now, they have Nolan Schanuel at 1B, whom I absolutely love. They once called Youklis the Greek God of Walks, well they haven’t met this fellow. His senior year he drew 71 walks and only had 14 strikeouts. The entire year. 14. I thought it was a typo. I had to go verify it somewhere else. 59 games, 289 PA’s, 14 Ks. He hit .447 with a .615 OBP, and hit 19 HR, so he wasn’t a one trick pony. Someone put him in playstation mode. He was playing in college in 2023, drafted, and got all the way to LA in the same season he was drafted. In his first 29 major league games, he had 20 walks and 19 Ks. This guy, is the guy. With their commitment (for some reason) to Moniak, and Trout, and Schanuel, they don’t need Bellinger, but the Angels have done crazier things.

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      • Nolan Ryan Schanuel. I wonder if dad is heartbroken his son will not be a major league pitcher? Or maybe he’ll do that later. I remember he got picked early in the draft, but did not absorb that he was 11th in 2023 and played just 22 minor league games before getting the call. What else do you do with a guy with a .505 OBP? Nobody puts up those numbers at any level these days.

        Corbin Burnes went pretty cheap for a year of his services. Those O’s are going to be tough.

        I’m still waiting for a slick, under the radar move by our second year GM. Maybe he’s already made one, but I doubt it was the Hader acquisition. Give me Phil Maton or a Phil Maton replacement for the early innings pen and I’ll feel a bit more like Dana has a real plan. He’s been handed a pretty good club in 2023 and 2024. Yes, I have expectations. For 2025 and 2026 too.

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    • You know, Phil threw 21.2 post season innings for the Astros, even having missed 2022 with his poorly timed fight with the locker.

      He put up an 0.83 ERA and an 0.728 WHIP during that time.

      I wonder if Phil liked his mostly lower leverage job? I also wonder who goes in when our starter threatens to let a game get away after four and a third innings? I guess we’ll start to find that out pretty soon. I can’t imagine the Rays gave Phil a whole lot of money.

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