On Feb. 14, the Astros’ pitchers and catchers will report to West Palm Beach. One month from last Friday, February 19, the balance of the Astros will report. They will be bringing along with them a number of questions that may get resolved during Spring Training or during the season, or never.
What are the 5 major areas/questions facing the team heading through Spring Training?
How will that bullpen be configured? The Astros, between losing Hector Neris, Phil Maton, and Ryne Stanek to free agency and losing Kendall Graveman to shoulder surgery, will have lost about 200 innings from their 2023 bullpen. They decided they have room in their budget for Josh Hader, but they may be relying on newbies for 140 or so other innings. Will they fill in with leftover starters (Jose Urquidy or Hunter Brown or J.P. France) or pitchers with some pedigree (Brandon Bielak, Seth Martinez, Ronel Blanco, Matt Gage, Bennett Sousa, Parker Mushinski,etc.) or someone from the minors (Forrest Whitley, Jairo Solis, Spencer Arrighetti) or some of their new add-ons (Kyle Coleman, Declan Cronin) or someone they pick off the end of the free agent reliever pile? Or do they just hold on until the return of Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia or the trade deadline?
Five Man or Six Man Rotation? The Astros start the season playing 9 days in a row, have a day off, and then play 16 more days in a row, and then have another day off before playing 13 days in a row. Would this, along with having 40+ Justin Verlander in the rotation, push them to at least start the season with a six-man rotation? The six as we sit right now would likely be Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Hunter Brown and J.P. France. This would allow them to give extra rest to these pitchers, but it also means that none of them would be available as a multi-inning option out of the bullpen. Anyways, during Spring Training they will figure out who will be in the rotation and how big that rotation will be.
Is the outfield this simple? Right field is Kyle Tucker, for sure. We are told that Chas McCormick will be out there almost every day – in left field when Yordan Alvarez is at DH and in CF when YA is in LF. Jake Meyers would then be in CF when Chas is in LF. Easy-peasy.
But is there any chance for someone to shove Meyers aside in Spring Training? Meyers has been pretty bad (.227 BA/ .287 OBP/ .647 OPS) the last two seasons. Will they be looking to upgrade from within during ST, or will they have someone on speed dial in Sugar Land if Meyers continues his poor performance or worse in early 2024.
THE question with the bullpen? OK, we don’t believe they gave Josh Hader almost $100 MM to be the seventh- or eighth-inning guy, but how do the top three stack up overall? Moving Ryan Pressly out of the closer’s role….might they move him all the way back to the seventh inning? Bryan Abreu was one of the best eighth-inning set-up men in the majors last season, and it looked like he was headed to the closer’s spot when Pressly leaves after 2024 or, less likely, after 2025.
And when Hader is not available to close a game or doesn’t feel like coming into a game (could not keep from taking a shot there), who is next up to close? The best guess is that it will be Pressly since he’s handled that job so well, but Abreu has been the backup closer the last couple of seasons.
Next men up? The Astros, like most teams, have had to dip into their depth every season. Last season, Mauricio Dubon did a very good job of stepping in when Jose Altuve missed so much time, and of course, Yainer Diaz proved to everyone except one toothpick chewer that he could fill the catcher spot as the starter. But beyond that, the other subs stunk. Rylan Bannon (.000 BA – OK only 6 ABs), Cesar Salazar (.111 BA), David Hensley (.119 BA), Bligh Madris (.154 BA), Jon Singleton (.194 BA) and Grae Kessinger (.200 BA) were all at the Mendoza line or below. The Astros should come out of ST with better options off the bench or out of the farm than this.
Anyways, those are five areas I’ll be looking at during Spring Training. What will get your attention this February and March?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
48 responses to “Astros’ 2024: Five areas of interest during spring training”
The other shoe drops…
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/astros-designate-matt-gage-for-assignment.html
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I’m listening to 790AM and they are airing a presser with Josh Hader. He does not sound like a diva.
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This is what Bullwinkle pulled out of the hat:
Rotation: Would think they will go with the 6 guys you named above.
Bullpen: Hader, Pressly, Abreu and Montero to pitch the 9th, 8th, 7th and 6th. For the other 3 spots I think it will be two of Bielak, Blanco or Oliver Ortega and one of Sousa or Mushinski.
Outfield: Julks or Loperfido in a backup role.
Infield: Kessinger, Hensley or Will Wagner to backup 1B/3B
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Good morning.
We’ll be going into ST this winter with some real competition for a change. Who is going to step up and win those pen jobs? We don’t exactly have a bunch of strike throwers in the group of applicants.
I think we’ll have sort of a six man rotation, early anyway. Urquidy does throw strikes so he might be helping out in the pen too. Let’s not forget that he’s got a career 1.143 WHIP, even after his rough comeback in 2023. I look for a helpful year from him.
Jake had a good offensive month in August of 2021. He had a bad offensive month before his injury in September of 2021. He had a pretty good offensive month in May of 2023. That’s it though. Maybe he’s just not a hitter. Or maybe the injury sidetracked his career to the point of no return. But the Astros must see something in the guy for him to get one more shot in 2024. What always sticks out to me is his 10 career stolen bases. Gosh, with his sprint speed, shouldn’t he have learned to steal a base by now?
I’m wondering how often the Astros will feel the need to use Abreu or even Pressly in the 6th or 7th inning. Pressly will still get save opportunities, but Abreu, he’s not going to get a chance to take on a more glamorous role for now. I hope he’s okay with his 2024 job.
The bench is a tough call. Guys like Loperfido and Wagner need to play everyday for now. But they’ll be close by. Initially, we’ll have the same weak bench. But that will change at some point.
I’m intrigued to see if Yainer Diaz is as good as I think he is. On the line up side of this club, he’s the big addition for 2024. Between him and Victor C., it’s a whole new world behind the plate!
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Things I’m looking for:
1. Is Singleton really going to be on this team?
2. Why not let the starting center fielder be the guy who wins the job this spring?
3. They have a ton of pitchers to make up a good bullpen. Let the best pitchers get the jobs.
4. Crane let Brown hire Espada and the Astros have this huge contingent of baseball gurus. They will figure out the starting rotation. Their desision won’t decide the effectiveness of the starting pitching. The way the pitchers pitch will decide how good we are.
5. We have good hitters. Put them in the lineup and let ‘er rip.
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I love that Aroldis Chapman is signing with the Pirates. It isn’t normal. I hope he has a great year.
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It stuck me as a good place for him. The Pirates play in an awful division and just might be next year’s Dbacks. Then again, if they do the normal Pirates thing they swing him to a playoff contender in July. Seems like a win-win for him.
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Guys who are in the know seem to think Billy Wagner is not going to get enough votes. I hope they are wrong, but hopes are not votes.
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Josh Hader has been activated and Matt Gage has been DFA’d. Astros roster stands at 40.
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The bullpen is pretty much what you said – Hader will close, Pressly will set up, Abreu will handle most high leverage spots pre-8th, and I expect Hader to get most of the saves but I think all 3 will have a some because Pressly will probably be limited on back to backs and Hader will be protected to a point (probably no 3 games in a row).
After that, obviously Montero is the big question mark. Repeating 2022 would put this team over. If he is initially given some 6th/7th inning leverage points and he succeeds that will be a big relief, for us and for his confidence. He blows 3 leads in 2 weeks, 2023 is on again.
Blanco, Soler, Whitley, Martinez, Dubin and Sousa all have plus arms that can sit over 9.0 on K/9. They also all have command issues that can sit over 4.0 on BB/9. These ratios are not helpful for relief pitchers, often they are out there in tighter spots. Abreu was once in that spot too and he figured it out. I don’t know if anyone outside of Whitley has quite an Abreu arm but 95-96 is still effective if you can command 2 pitches.
Pressly is my biggest concern. Saying the right things, but his arm is not what it was. All of ratios are screaming downward trend – he is getting harder, more often, striking out less people, and now he has had his job taken from him. Two weeks ago he had to be thinking OK, go out, rip 30 saves with an ERA around 3, and they will pick up my option because 15M is actually cheap for a closer these days, to no way that option gets picked up now. We’ll see where he is velocity wise in ST.
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Yeah lots of good points Steven.
I did want to point out some things about what we lost – because all of these guys pitched in that 6th inning onward more than you would think.
Neris – 5 times in 6th, 31 in 7th, 33 in 8th, 4 in 9th, 1 in extra innings
Maton – 26 times in 6th, 22 in 7th, 8 in 8th, 5 in 9th, 3 in extra innings
Stanek – 9 times in 6th, 20 in 7th, 14 in 8th, 12 in 9th, 1 in extra innings
Graveman (with the Astros) – 4 times in 6th, 9 in 7th, 2 in 8th, 2 in 9th, 1 in extra innings
That is a lot of high leveraged innings that does not get sucked up by just adding Hader.
And don’t think that Montero will do a lot more, because despite how poorly he pitched – he still pitched in a lot of high leveraged innngs in 2023 –
9 times in the 6th, 18 in the 7th, 28 in the 8th and 15 in the 9th.
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Montero threw to 46 batters in high leverage spots – that’s where in the 6th inning or later both teams WE (win expectancy) were still within a percent of each other based on a few factors. He walked 4 of those, gave up a .333 BA on a .444 BABIP and a 1.058 OPS. He made those 46 batters hall of famers.
In low leverage spots – where WE was out of whack either way – 186 PAs he still got hit some, but not to that degree.
This is a direct opposition to 2022, where in high leverage he had a .128 BA against, .169 BABIP, and a .416 OPS in 111 PAs. He made everyone look stupid, at clutch times.
Baseball reference had his BA against as .167 in “late and close (7th inning or later, 1 run difference or time game) for 2022. For 2023, .333. This guy didn’t just have a fall off as a high leverage pitcher, he literally went from arguably the best high leverage guy in the league one year to the worst in the league the next.
We have no idea what’s coming, but if I had to guess what is coming I usually tend towards the latest trends a player is showing, but certainly that is a guess and it can always go differently.
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I would not be surprised to see Phil back.
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Let’s see ….
AstroNut – The thing about Hader, Pressly, Abreu and Montero pitching the 6th thru 9th is that they will likely only use any of them 2 days in a row and with 13 days and 16 days in a row type runs – they will have to be able to do some mix and matching with the “other” guys whoever they may be.
daveb – Is Jake somewhat like out Jake from State Farm Marisnick – good glove, speed, sporadic power and very sporadic at making contact? He has to do more in my mind if he is going to stick around.
One thing about Yainer – because Yordan missed so much time last year, he did pick up quite a few ABs at DH. It will be interesting to see how they use him at DH when Yordan is in LF this year. And I would like to see someone like Tucker and Bregman get a few DH shots because especially with KTuck I thought he wore down after carrying the offense so long with Altuve and Alvarez out.
OP – It is hard for me to see Singleton making the team – in my mind you can’t have a bench guy who can only play one position except for the backup catcher. I know his hitting stinks, but he does draw walks – sometimes in the clutch, but you really can’t afford to have him.
Sounds like you want everyone that is a question mark to earn their spot in Spring Training.
Good.
The one thing about Wagner is that of the ballots that have been made public by those voters he stands at about 78%, and he needs to be on like 71-72% of the balance to meet the 75% level. Of course, some of the folks in the know, know a bit more behind the scenes. If only Wags had pitched better in the post season (13 runs in 11.2 innings), this would be a slam dunk. I hope that there are not some demented folks out there not including him on their ballots as “punishment” to the Astros organization for the cheating scandal that had nothing to do with him. I think he should be in there, but I don’t get a say.
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The issue with thinking Singleton isn’t going to make this team – there isn’t anyone else. Sometimes guys are there not because they earn it, but because no one else does either. There is no point in carrying a 32 year old journeyman 1B that is guaranteed to sit behind your incumbent 1B on the 40 man if there is no intent to have him on the 26 man. He has no options. Do I think he is the very next waived if someone is added to the roster? Yes. Do I think that is going to happen? No.
I’ve given my Singleton spill. I think he is a guy that, if he can hit .240, will be more productive than Abreu per AB. I don’t know that he can hit .240, because he never has, especially in part time duty. I say that not because I like Singleton, but I don’t really like Abreu. Since you are paying Abreu a lot of money though, that is guaranteed, and you kinda know what his numbers will look like at worst, you just got to stick with him. At the very least he is predictable and reliable even if he isn’t an all-star anymore.
I think Singleton is here because of the lack of reliable left handed bats on this bench, particularly ones that can work a count. He gives Espada the opportunity to rest Abreu against hard throwing righties by adding an additional lefty to today’s lineup. You never like the thought that maybe this guy can draw a clutch walk, you would rather talk about a clutch hit, but maybe there will be a few opportunities to extend an inning and get it back to the top of the order. It all seems like a waste of a precious roster spot, but it’s not like someone else hit .347 with 12HR in a month at AAA tearing the door down. When someone does, I am sure he is the first waiver.
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How about this – let Victor Caritini who is a switch hitter and played a fair amount of 1B for the Cubs in 2018 and 2019 be your backup 1B left handed bat.
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Caratini is probably not a better hitter, but he isn’t a worse hitter either.
Keep in mind unless you have a 3rd option at C, most teams are not in favor of sticking their backup C out there somewhere else. Obviously, safer to stick at 1B than DH because he can move in the C from there with zero harm, but he isn’t really a candidate to provide a LH option at DH if Yordan is in LF that day.
Like I said though, it’s as much about who is it you want on the 40 man and the 26 man that you think is more important. To me a spot where Dubon is sucking up most of the off days at literally every position is optimal, and there is no one at Sugar Land saying with their numbers put me on that roster now. What if Julks hits .330 in ST? Something like that could spell the end of Singleton.
BTW, I am not saying that’s what I would do. I would waive Singleton tomorrow and just move on. You really can’t afford to carry a guy that does only 1 thing well, and to see the real benefit of that one thing you have to play him a lot, and if you play him a lot, you get to see firsthand all the things he doesn’t do well cost you. I do think if you are a franchise with 2 guys competing for 1B that no one has ever heard of, that Jon Singleton can be a lightning in a bottle candidate, but the Brewers tried, and it didn’t work for them. I am just trying to be in the head of Brown, who apparently likes something about Singleton.
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I know teams don’t want to put the backup C at first, because the regular catcher could get hurt. But what difference does it make – you can move him behind the plate – put the regular 1B at first and call up a catcher from the minors.
How about this – when you want to give Abreu a day off against a tough righty – you catch Caratini, put Diaz at first base (who hits rightys better than leftys) and move on with your life. (I know this is basically the same thing – but I’m stubborn). I like Dubon as your Swiss army knife, but if you have to put him in the lineup long term due to an injury, you need someone else you can rely on off the bench. Not sure who that is.
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Dan, Jake got 341 PA’s last year. His hard hit rate was significantly down from 2021 and 2022, league wide, in the lowest 5% of all players. I don’t understand why he’s still hanging around. As 1oldpro suggests, put the best players in the outfield. Jake has not earned a job.
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It almost never works out, but the idea of real old time baseball is so intriguing to me.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/alex-blandino-attempting-to-become-knuckleballer.html
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My goodness! When you sign Josh Hader, people start acting like you really matter.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/astros-trade-rumors-left-handed-outfielder-free-agency.html
Do we want to talk about this, guys and gals?
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Maybe what is happening is that Crane is willing to go over this season, because he knows he will be losing Bregman after the season and maybe even Altuve, so he thinks it will be a one off going over the luxury line.
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Janknowski would be the perfect way to dismiss Singleton from this roster! Five OF’ers is the way to go if one of them happens to be your DH and the other happens to be the first guy in at 2B or SS. He hits lefty, adding a piece you need, and he understands and fills the part time role well. He runs well, can PH, pinch run, and can play all 3 OF spots. He is so-so in CF as a defender (2.40 outs per 9), but that is passable in part time play. These are all things Singleton is not. And like Singleton, he can work a walk.
Now, where did I put Dana’s cell number again?
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Jankowski does provide another lefty bat, but his .641 career OPS is not an upgrade over Jake. He’ll steal a base for you, but as noted, Jake remains the better guy with the glove. We’ll likely get more offense from Dubon or Julks in center, lefty or not.
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I should have said Julks in left.
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I do get that. He is one of the softest hitters in the majors at a 84.0 EV.
I always talk about accentuating strengths and limiting weaknesses. Jankowski’s strength isn’t standing in the batters box with runners in scoring position. It’s not being an everyday CF’er logging 1300 innings out there defensively.
What he does well though can be used. Limit the AB’s and innings played defensively – he can get some, but have them at the bottom of the order where you need him to work counts, pitchers pitch count, take advantage of his OBP, and let him use his legs on base. Send him out there to lead off an inning as a PH if you are down by 2 in the ninth. Send him out there with a runner on third and one out knowing he is a little tougher to strike out than say Meyers or Pena.
There are a ton of uses in game for players with obvious strengths and obvious flaws. Not everyone is 500 PA or 1300 inning talents, some have to be mixed and matched. Janikowski’s strengths are not something that is overly abundant on this team from role players, and I would much rather have him than Singleton taking that 26th spot.
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What if Dubon is actually better (hitting and defense) in CF than Jake? What do we do then? Maybe last year was a fluke for MD but if not, we might be losing some valuable production. No, he’s not necessarily a long ball threat but he is a smart hitter who can pick out the openings to hit the ball where the fielders aren’t.
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As far as this LH hitting outfielder goes, let me offer a few things up.
Do Crane and Brown know what Altuve, Bregman and Tucker and Framber are looking for in a long term deal? Are they looking for longer term deals than the Astros want to pay?
The Astros will never be able to keep them all. But waiting for them to hit free agency to work deals means the team is going to play into those four players desires and their timelines.
So, what if you make a run at Bellinger? If you get him, you have two years of him and Tucker in the OF and you have one of the best, if not the best team in baseball for 2024.
With Bellinger signed, you have another position player signed long term. Then you try to do what you can to keep another. That gives you all of 2024 to find out about Loperfido, Dezenzo, Wagner, Melton, Corona, Cole and company.
I’m not saying this would be the only move, but Bellinger is the best player left out there and not planning ahead could mean that Tucker, Bregman and maybe even Altuve might leave and you would not have planned ahead for their departures, except for doing nothing and saying “oh crap, they’re gone”.
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Bellinger wants to get paid like he hits .307 every year. There is just as much a chance that he hits .207. His lack of consistency is concerning if you are about to go say 7 years and 220M.
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I promised not to keep talking about potentially moving guys that we likely would not be signing long tern, as I know I was sounding like a broken record. I do not want to get into the “oh crap they’re gone” position. Of course winning a WS in 2024 would lessen the pain a bit, but it sure would not help keep our club relevant. To a degree, the Astros control their own long term destiny. At least for now.
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If only Dana read this.
Part of me says trading Bregman when you are trying to win is folly.
Part of me thinks its not 2018 anymore. There are no Tuckers in your system that when Springer walks you just say next man up. This team has survived Cole and Morton, and even JV though he is back, leaving because of Framber, CJ, Garcia, Urquidy, Brown, basically a home grown staff. Some of it’s luck. Some of it is just good scouting a good system. But those years without those picks, it’s a little more scarce at the top than it was when previous top notch guys left. Can we really afford to let them keep walking out with no return?
I’m confident that they will work it out with Altuve. It might end up 30M AAV, but they will get there. I don’t see a world where Crane says heck I’m over the cap already lets just go to town and gives Bregman the same deal, hence I don’t see a world where Alex Bregman is playing 3B in Houston in 2025. And Framber, same thing. If you move Framber now with 2 years of control you can wrest someone like Sheehan from LA, a future ace, from a franchise that needs an ace for 2024. Not to mention moving both of those guys frees up the constraints of current salary issues with Hader’s contract AND gives you breathing space to spend all next offseason negotiating with Tucker.
It seems elementary to me, but they didn’t interview me for the job, because if they had Chris Carter and Robbie Grossman might still be in this lineup :).
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I’m on record: Bregman is an old 30. He’s not going to get what he requires from the Astros. But someone will deal with us for him. Framber and his two years? Cincinnati needs pitching. Maybe they have our third baseman. As I’ve repeatedly said though, hypothetically of course, if Brown was to make similar moves with these two guys, he’d have to get a young, well rated starter that projects to give 150 innings along with that third baseman. We have to replace most of Framber’s innings.
And we should get a pen arm too.
Worst case, both trades fail miserably, really putting pressure on the pitching staff and leaving a huge hole at third, making it difficult to reach the post season in 2024, but at the same time, saving 40 million.
Best case, we get two young guys in return that contribute right away. And we save those 40 million dollars, but most of all, we become so much better positioned for several years ahead. And Tucker might get done too.
So guys flail away at me. I can take it!
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I’d never heard of “swords” before but apparently Framber’s cutter gets lots of them
https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/statcast-s-swords-leader-for-every-pitch-type-in-2023
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Billy Wagner misses out once again…
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Like 4 or 5 votes short – dang it
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It’s criminal.
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There are just seven relief pitchers enshrined at Cooperstown. I did not realize that.
Of those seven, Billy Wagner has the lowest WHIP at 0.998.
He’s got the second lowest ERA at 2.31.
He’s got the fourth most saves at 422.
He’s a 7 time All Star, tying him for 4th in appearances of the seven in the Hall.
He’s fifth in strike outs with 1196.
My guess is that he’ll be voted in on his 10th and final ballot next year. It’s simply the one way baseball “writers” can control an element of MLB. It is their Hall of Fame. There are other worthy players out there. And there are other guys in the Hall that really don’t qualify.
It is way beyond the time for entry in the Hall of Fame to be decided by technology, players and managers rather than frequently opinionated, non baseball people, often with their own agendas.
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Thanks for digging all of that out daveb – it really shows why he should have been there before this year and not extended out to the last time around.
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I never felt like Wagner was a future HOFer when watching him play. To some degree we have to decide whether the stories are more important or if we want the raw data to determine who is worthy. Based on simple dominance I do think Wagner is worthy. Based on any metrics I don’t think Joe Mauer or Todd Helton should be enshrined in anything other than their club’s local HOF.
Looking ahead to 2025 ballot, we have Ichiro who should be a slam dunk. After that we have Sabathia, Pedroia, Kinsler, and King Felix. None of those four should be inducted into the HOF in my opinion. Hopefully that encourages a few more people to swing their votes Wagner’s way.
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Linking back to the crawfishboxes in thanks for linking to us.
https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2024/1/24/24047923/astros-crawfish-boil-january-24-2024#comments
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Last week was very cold (for Houston). This week has been grey and wet (for anywhere). I was feeling a little down with Billy Wags falling short – so I did what I like to do in these situations and went here ……
for a bit of inspiration….
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For me, Dan, I was so full of emotion reading the comments from that post. Such joy from everyone.
I miss Diane and Sandy and Becky and Tim and the others we don’t hear from much any more.
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Yeah I know OP a bunch of folks who have gone elsewhere like the ones you mentioned and – Billy C, astros 45, grayson, russell johnson (rj), Dr. Bill, Kevin K, … I miss them – I wonder what Brian T is up to.
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It’s a shame to lose friends here along the way but it’s harder to not wonder about the circumstances that took them away. I sure miss those in our little group that we don’t hear from any longer.
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Jose Urquidy went 13-8 in 2022, although it was an erratic season for him. He gave up an OPS of .856 in April and .910 in May. Then he followed that with a .664, a .537 and a .647. He finished in September with an .820. He threw 164 innings, way above his career max. Of course then he went and starred for his country in the WBC the following March touching 94-95 in his big game without the benefit of a full spring training.
The injury was almost predictable in hindsight. Then rehab and an unremarkable return in 2023. But this guy will be entering 2024 with a lifetime WHIP of 1.143. He’s had some big games too. Assuming he’s fully healthy, I think he’ll help the Astros.
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I’m curious about the cost benefit analysis for the WBC. A quick google shows the finale had a record breaking 5.2M viewers eclipsing the previous record of ~3M. There seems to be some Hollywood accounting going on with the numbers and choices of when to include multiple networks broadcasting simultaneously and not, but the record shattering 2023 World Series for lowest viewers ever averaged over 9M per game on FOX. So, this event is trumpeted as a gigantic triumph despite bringing in less than 2/3 the average viewership of a World Series no one wanted to watch.
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Am I missing something?
“The Astros start the season playing 9 days in a row, have a day off, and then play 16 more days in a row, and then have another day off before playing 13 days in a row”
That’s not our schedule at all? We open with 7 games, have a day off, then 13 games, and then have another 4 days off the rest of April.
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Trengilly – You are absolutely right – I can only blame my well-paid research staff – me. I do not know what I was looking at unless I punched in the wrong team name.
But beyond that – what are your baseball takes on things?
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