,

Astros 2024: The one that got away has come back

Well, this blog post has taken more zigs and zags than the Texans’ Devin Singletary sniffing out the end zone.

First, it was going to be a look at projections for the individual Astros for the 2024 season. But it got to be too much work for a lovely off-work Friday. Then it was going to be one of those “5 critical items heading into Spring Training….” posts. And that was going well until the big news flash on Friday night. The Astros made one of the bigger moves of the off-season when they signed Free Agent left-handed reliever Josh Hader to a 5-year / $95 MM contract.  Unless a senior moment has hit me, this is the longest free agent contract in the Jim Crane era for an outside FA.

It is impossible to hear this huge move by GM Dana Brown and not float back to the worst trade in the mostly great history of GM Jeff Luhnow. It was the 2015 trade deadline, and the Astros thought they needed to bring in the OF talents of Carlos Gomez (OMG) and of P Mike Fiers (Spit!! Spit!!). Yes, that Mike Fiers. So, they sent to Milwaukee, OF Brett Phillips (who has somehow spent parts of 7 seasons in the majors despite an awful .187 career BA), P Adrian Houser, who has been steadily pitching for the Brewers for 5 seasons, including in the rotation the last 3 seasons, OF Domingo Santana, who gave the Brewers 3-1/2 solid seasons of production, and Josh Hader.

Hader had drawn a lot of attention around these parts and on this blog as a big-time arm in the Astros’ minor league system for a fairly short time. He had been drafted out of high school by the Baltimore Orioles in 2012 and came to the Astros in 2013 in the Bud Norris trade. Other than one poor stop at Corpus in 2014, most of his time with the Astros was impressive, especially considering he was 3 to 4 years younger than the average age per level. His 9-2, 2.70 stop in 2014 at Lancaster, which was famous for being where arms went to die was particularly notable.

It took him a couple seasons to make the majors in 2017, but he soon established himself as a top reliever in the majors. During 5-1/2 seasons in Milwaukee, he was 17-17 with 125 saves, a 2.48 ERA, 0.882 WHIP and an insane 15.4 Ks/ 9 IPs. He made 4 All Star teams with the Brewers, but they decided to part ways and gather a chunk of players in return when they traded him to the Padres in 2022. He struggled in that half season in 2022, but rebounded brilliantly in 2023, going 2-3, with 33 saves and a 1.28 ERA and another All-Star appearance.

Overall, he has been strong in the playoffs 19.2 innings in 16 appearances with a 1.37 ERA, with one Astro connected exception. In 2019, he came into the 8th inning of the Wild Card matchup with the Nationals and turned a 3-1 advantage into a 4-3 loss. This put the Nats into the NLDS and set them on the way to eventually beating the Astros in the World Series.

This will be a unique addition to the Astros’ bullpen as they famously have been right arm-centric in this Renaissance period.  During this period, Tony Sipp was probably the Astros’ best left handed reliever, which tells you a lot.

His addition will give the Astros three pitchers with closer stuff, between the Astros’ current closer Ryan Pressly, power set-up man Bryan Abreu, and Hader. This may be the Astros’ strongest back of the bullpen since the 2005 set of Dan Wheeler, Chad Qualls, and Brad Lidge.

While this does not fill all of the holes created by the free agent losses of Hector Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek, plus the season ending surgery for Kendall Graveman, it certainly helps the team in filling and likely improving a high leveraged position in the bullpen.

The big question will be…. who will be the closer heading into 2024, but the answer could be a three headed monster that the other teams will not want to face.

←
→

17 responses to “Astros 2024: The one that got away has come back”

  1. I am going to give this some thought. But before I do that, I have checked around to a number of outlets and I can say with certainty that opponents did not see this coming and are not very happy about it.
    It is so obvious that in evaluations about the 2024 Astros there was this idea of the Astros demise at the foot of the Astros bullpen and now some teams and some fans are stunned.

    Like

    Reply

    • It is a little disturbing, though of course he is not now playing for a new contract.
      I’d like to see more info – had he pitched in three straight games? Did he say anything else – did they cherry pick this one quote after he had been badgered with questions. Was this part of his only wanting to throw one inning?

      We certainly would take 61 appearances and a 1.28 ERA in 2024. But we don’t really want a diva to haughty it might be too late to say that.

      Like

      Reply

  4. The Astros are a better baseball team than they were yesterday. I’m certainly good with that. Montero is a pretty big key at this point. That sounds odd. But beyond him, a couple of other guys will have to step up and get those early pen outs. Phil? But heck, assuming good health, we’ve got three of the best closers in baseball all of a sudden, whether they work the 8th, 9th or 10th. We sure sucked in extra inning agin in 2023. That should change.

    And the Marquee guy is signed for five years. I don’t think Jim Crane did this deal without an acceptance of larger deals that also need to get done. Why would he pay a closer 95 million if there are no plans to keep some of the other guys in the fold?

    I think more to come.

    Like

    Reply

    • Redeeming 95M box tops for the big prize is not our typical Astros front office move.
      What was the brain trust thinking? A little birdie told me it went down something like this:

      Gimme a ticket for postseason play
      Ain’t got time to waste said Jim Crane
      Low budget days are gone, I’ve got cash to blow
      Oh, Dana, just-a get me Josh Hader

      I don’t care how much money I gotta spend
      Got to get back to World Series again
      Low budget days are gone, window’s gonna close
      Oh, Dana, just-a get me Josh Hader

      Well, go get me Josh Hader
      Said we couldn’t live losing games late and close
      Listen, mister, can’t you see we got to revamp
      Our bullpen once-a more
      Anyway, yeah!

      Gimme a ticket for postseason play
      Ain’t got time to waste said Jim Crane
      Low budget days are gone, I’ve got cash to blow
      Oh, Dana, just-a get me Josh Hader

      Well, go get me Josh Hader
      Said we couldn’t live losing games late and close
      Listen, mister, can’t you see we got to revamp
      Our bullpen once-a more
      Anyway, yeah!

      Gimme a ticket for postseason play
      Ain’t got time to waste said Jim Crane
      Low budget days are gone, window’s gonna close
      Oh, Dana, just-a get me Josh Hader
      Oh, Dana, just-a get me Josh Hader

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  7. Ok, I’ve thought it over more and it makes a lot of sense if Abreu and Pressly are ok sliding back. It gives Espada a lot of options late in games and ideally allows him to keep all three of them fresh throughout the season. I still maintain this team will go as far as the offense takes them. The starting pitching won’t go deep into a lot of games so having flexibility to let some of the lesser bullpen guys take some lumps and not treat every middle inning as a high leverage situation will be important. Getting into a position where the shut down arms can end it over 7,8, 9 will be the recipe for success.

    I have to think Tucker is gone next winter and if Crane intended to keep him or thought he could a deal like this for Hader wouldn’t have happened. It’s a big year for him, Altuve, and Bregman to show Brown and Crane whether they need to back up the armored truck or look for replacements that are likely less productive but much cheaper. As a fan I’m hopeful they all would take reasonable contracts to stay in Houston instead of going elsewhere, but suspect at least 2 of them are hoping for George Springer money. No one should be dumb enough to pay Carlos Correa money to any of the three.

    Like

    Reply

  9. My dream bullpen for the playoffs in 2024 for the Astros would be in no particular order:
    Hader
    Pressly
    Abreu
    Brown
    Montero
    Garcia
    Whitley
    Lance McCullers Jr
    JP France

    Like

    Reply

  10. I should have mentioned that Hader was looked at as a starter in his time in the Astros system. He did throw in relief some games during his time here, but that was back in the days when the Astros would piggy back two starters in a game to give two guys four innings of work per game. It wasn’t until he was with the Brewers that he was moved to the pen on a permanent basis.

    Like

    Reply

  11. I’ve had a weekend to digest.

    At first I wasn’t a fan. I’m disappointed for Bryan Abreu, who had to think he was the favorite to land the role that would land him the most money in 2025.

    I was disappointed for Ryan Pressly, who will spend, likely, his last season in Houston pitching as an 8th inning guy. There were plenty of warning lights going off – his exit velocity against climbed up over 91, the worst mark of his career. He lost 6% off his K rate. His ERA “ballooned” to 3.58. His velocity lost a tick. But he was still getting the job done and had been an important part of the last 4 years and a big reason things have been what they have been. There is a mutual option for 15M for 2025 but I can’t see the Astros picking that up to see him pitch the 8th. To be honest the peripherals tell me he looks more like a 6th inning mid guy at this point.

    Is this a case of the Astros addressing an issue before anyone else saw it was an issue?

    After my weekend of stewing on it – I like it. I initially thought why didn’t they take these resources and spread them out? But why? The options out there are guys like Neris and Stephenson trying to get paid a small forture off of career years they are unlikely to repeat at those levels. If the only way to address the BP is by paying a lot, why not just go get the best guy likely to repeat dominant seasons? If Neris and Stephenson both are seeking 15M to be a middle reliever, you might as well go to 19 and get your closer. And then take your chance on Montero and Whitley. I expect neither to work out but like we’ve said before, bullpens are built from within. Sometimes one of those spare parts shows up to ST and gets it done.

    I don’t have high expectations for Forrest but I can tell you this, the opportunity is there. The Astros have said it. He was interviewed a few days ago about it and he sounds excited by the prospect of going out there and showing off what he can do letting it go for 3 hitters. If he can hit his spots no one ever doubted the arm talent. I remember we once thought Bryan Abreu was a guy that could just throw hard but never hit his spots. Now, even with Hader on board, Abreu may still be the most important guy in the bullpen because Hader can’t save games that are blown in the 7th or 8th.

    As for a big three – Pressly’s small slide probably keeps it from being a Lidge-Dotel-Wagner thing where they were all 3 in their prime, but it makes you pretty comfortable for most high leverage spots from the 7th on.

    Like

    Reply

Leave a reply to devinhateswp Cancel reply