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Astros 2024: Is the bullpen going to be a problem?

The Astros bullpen has been the focal point of concern for fans and pundits heading into 2024. The rotation has concerns relative to performance, but there are plenty of folks who have done it before – Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, J.P. France, Jose Urquidy, and Hunter Brown with Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia possibly returning during the season and prospects like Spencer Arrighetti waiting in the wings. The position players are facing the “loss” of Michael Brantley, who only had 57 plate appearances and the addition by subtraction replacement of catcher Martin Maldonado with Victor Caratini. With potential full seasons from Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve, and better usage of Yainer Diaz and Chas McCormick, the lineup should be solid.

Which brings us back around to the bullpen…..The big question here is whether the Astros can properly replace about a third of their bullpen innings with the losses of Hector Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek.

Let’s take a quick look at last season vs. this season for the likely bullpen inhabitants as the Astros sit currently.

2023 Reliever Games / IPs ERA/ WHIP Potential 2024 Relievers Comment
Ryan Pressly 65 / 65.1 3.58 / 1.071 Ryan Pressly Was OK, but a step down from 2022
Bryan Abreu 72 / 72 1.75 / 1.042 Bryan Abreu Great – two seasons in a row
Rafael Montero 68 / 67.1 5.08 / 1.530 Rafael Montero Fell off the cliff in the first half of 2023 – better in the second half
Kendall Graveman 68 / 66.1 3.12 / 1.312 Kendall Graveman Of the 68 games he spent 23 of them with Houston
Seth Martinez 35 / 43 5.23 / 1.488 Seth Martinez Good 2022 / bad 2023
Parker Mushinski 14 / 14.2 5.52 / 1.568 Parker Mushinski In and out with injuries
Matt Gage 5 / 6.2 2.70 / 1.350 Matt Gage Looked good in a small sample
Shawn Dubin 3 / 9 7.00 / 1.667 Shawn Dubin Needs more seasoning
Bennett Sousa 5 / 6.1 0.00 / 0.158 Bennett Sousa The best performance in a cameo
Hector Neris 71 / 68.1 1.71 / 1.054   Likely Gone
Phil Maton 68 / 66 3.00 / 1.121   Likely Gone
Ryne Stanek 55 / 50.2 4.09 / 1.243   Likely Gone
  23 / 18.1 8.84 / 2.018 Dylan Coleman With KC – great in 2022 / awful in 2023
  9 / 11 9.00 / 1.636 Declan Cronin CHW – small/ bad sample
  10 / 14.2 4.30 / 1.227 Oliver Ortega Pitched OK in a cup of coffee with the Twins
  8 / 30 5.70 / 1.333 Forrest Whitley Will he ever stay healthy?

What does this look like? The following are critical for their success….at least most of them

  • They have to have a repeat season out of Abreu
  • They sure could use Pressly returning to his 2022 self
  • They really, really could use Montero returning to his 2022 self – that would help fill the Nevis spot
  • They need Graveman to at least be Phil Maton-ish like he was last season
  • Mushinski or Martinez needs to improve a lot
  • Coleman and/or Cronin need to figure out where the plate is
  • Ortega and/or Sousa could follow up on the potential they have shown
  • One of the prospects – Whitley, Dubin, Arrighetti – steps up and grabs a job

In some ways it feels like the bullpen just needs to hold on until….

  • McCullers and/or Garcia return from their injuries or…..
  • Jim Crane approves them making a big trade deadline for a high-leverage arm

(Oh – maybe they will fool us and pick up one of these free agent relievers that is hanging out there before Spring Training).

How do you picture this going, folks?

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30 responses to “Astros 2024: Is the bullpen going to be a problem?”

  1. Good morning. I hope the grid is holding up and you guys are staying warm.

    I’m optimistic about the Astros in 2024. I don’t think guys like Framber and Javier are done being effective pitchers. And Hunter Brown will get better. Verlander will remain sturdy.

    We’ll hit more at home. We’ll play better defense up the middle.

    But yes, I’m dubious about the pen. We’ve got quite a few no-name guys on the list of options for 2024. We’ve got Forrest Whitley in that list. We’ve got to hope our “regulars”, the reliable guys, remain healthy.

    I’m guessing the plan is to tweak and tweak some more, but without acquiring any additional costly talent in the bullpen until the deadline, if at all.

    The answer might come from Garcia and McCullers. Are they our deadline acquisitions?

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    • Knock on wood – my family is doing OK so far. A cloudy, windless day yesterday did not help with the “green” energy side of things, but we held on from what I know.

      Yes, I agree with your assessment – I don’t think they spend bucks until the deadline and who knows at that time, they may need to spend somewhere else than the bullpen. We will see.

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  2. Have been blessed so far, with no precip and highs in the mid teens and lows in the mid single digits here in southern OK.
    Went out to dinner at family’s home last night. We walked and it was very cold. Fortunately, it is a fifty yard walk.

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  4. To answer your question, Dan, I would add Solis to your list of candidates, at least for now.
    The Astros have already said that Whitley and Dubin are relievers, which makes them young candidates to make the team’s bullpen.
    So, how do I see this going. I think that all your relievers and candidates are going to have a competition for the bullpen in spring training and the best of them who perform are going to make the 26-man roster. If it isn’t good enough in the first half of the season, they may bring someone up midway and then look for help at the deadline.
    Graveman’s times with the Astros have been disastrous. I hope this is goodbye and lesson learned and I add that I wish him well, sincerely, but somewhere else.

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    • He may wait out the market a little bit and wait for pricing to come down for some of these guys who are expecting more than the market will give them.

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  7. Good morning,

    Bullpen holes can demoralize a baseball team pretty quickly. Lost leads, overworked pen itself, the tendency to leave a starter in too long. Dana Brown has a real challenge in front of him. I’d say let’s get Neris back in the fold, but the Montero contract is pretty much what Hector would want from us. We set the precedent there.

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  8. Felt like there was a low chance of Whitley breaking camp in the pen, but with Graveman’s injury the chance just increased.

    Bullpens are often built from within. Guys sometimes come out of no where and become valuable pieces. When Montero was acquired he was a pitcher that had an ERA under 4 only 1 time in 5 seasons, and that time was just 29 innings. He was oft injured and carried a price tag of almost 4M at the age of 31. I was surprised the Astros didn’t non-tender him. They again proved they are generally smarter than us as he had a great 2022. Then they proved again they are not smarter than the rest of us with that contract, because old Montero came back.

    I’m just saying, BPs, who knows. Dana Brown is saying all the “we won’t panic” things, but I don’t know that he is not actually sitting in his office breathing into a paper bag. Nothing can take a championship caliber team down a notch faster than a BP that blows 6th inning leads 3 times in a week.

    If I think of a BP in the term of the roles – 1 closer, 2 high leverage guys, 2 medium to high leverage, and 2 or 3 guys that just get us there – the Astros just had to re-promote Montero into high leverage split with Abreu. I never understood not even having a conversation with Maton but maybe they do now. Right now those 2 medium sometimes high spots, oof.

    I like Martinez, Blanco, and Dubin all 3. Guys that can maintain a K per inning at the bigs while post double digit K/9 in the minors have the arms to pitch at this level. It’s about limiting mistakes and not walking guys, and that is something all 3 have struggled with at both levels. Nothing can blow up your ERA faster than pitching 1/3rd of an inning and giving up 4 runs, and that’s what happens when you walk out there in high leverage spots unprepared and try and use your stuff to get past a middle of the order in the big leagues.

    As for Whitley, I have seen VERY little of him. Maybe 3 batters. His stats tell me that he has zilch for command, he can obviously throw hard, but major leaguers don’t care about 98 if that 98 is a straight fastball in the heart of the plate, or 9 inches off the plate and an obvious pitch to not offer at. That is fixable, he can learn to hit the corners, learn to make his balls look like strikes and his strikes look like balls, but he has to stay healthy to get the work in.

    I don’t want a lefty for lefty’s sake. Sousa seems like a guy that like the other 4 guys that I’ve mentioned, throws hard and throws everywhere. He has swing and miss stuff, when it’s close enough to tempt a swing. He also, so far, has gotten hit by lefties harder than righties.

    Even good bullpens going in have a chance to turn into an unmitigated disaster. I think about the Rangers last year, that team had 100 wins written on it even with the injuries to the rotation, and then the BP started giving away games. I feel like Bochy pulled the rabbit out of the hat in the end but he was riding the same horses to the finish line. It can turn south, quick. Any part of it can really, but if the Astros end up around 85 wins and finish out of the playoffs I feel like the bullpen has the biggest chance of being the culprit.

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  10. Cesar Yanquiel Hernandez, OF, Cuba (Scouting report here)
    Anderson Paula, OF, Dominican Republic
    Franchely Silverio, SS, Dominican Republic
    Amauri Ramirez, OF, USA/Dominican Republic
    Samuel Brito, SS/OF, Venezuela
    Alexi Quiroz, C, Venezuela
    Angel Peralta, RHP, Dominican Republic
    Cristian Navarro, RHP, Panama
    Eduardito Lopez, IF, Dominican Republic
    Kevin Santana, RHP, Dominican Republic
    Luis Rives, OF, Cuba
    Baseball America lists 11 IFA that the Astros have reached agreements with.

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  12. The Astros invited Hader to a workout and wanted to see how well he fielded grounders on the right side of the infield?

    Push:
    Sports To hit (a ball) in the direction toward the dominant hand of the player propelling it, as to the right of a right-handed player.

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  13. The thought of Hader in the pen immediately got the juices flowing. Thing is though, if Dana Brown was handed 20 million by Jim Crane for 5 years to build the best possible bullpen with available resources, would Josh Hader be his solution?

    We might already have the best closer in baseball for 1.75 million a year. We already have the best post season closer in baseball, at least for 2024. What might that 20 million bring us in multiple arms for the 6th and 7th innings? Maton, Stanek, Stephenson from the Rays, Chapman, Matt Moore. There are potential one year deals out there. And there are other names still out there too.

    Is this Dana Brown’s club, or a restless owners club?

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    • Because of the payroll situation I’m hoping the Hader rumblings are simply a bit of smoke and mirrors. It just doesn’t make sense. Then again, the Orioles were linked to Hader early in the winter and that similarly makes little sense. I read the article on mlbtr and in the comments someone suggested the Dodgers should sign him.

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  14. Josh Hader is in agreement with the Astros on a 5-year/ $95 million contract. A no trade clause and no options are included.
    Josh Hader is in the Astros bullpen and I hope Becky is happy, because she never wanted him to leave.

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  16. Surprising. I agree with Dave that it would have been better to get 3 arms that are medium-to-high leverage guys instead of this. But the deal is there, so let’s see if the Astros can make the best of it. He is, after all, the best closer in the game, and this means we don’t have to worry about him leading the Rangers to a 9th inning win.

    I am just concerned how this affects the pending free agents. Crane has spoken, I always figured he would go over the cap for the right guy, and he did it for what he thinks is the right guy. The question, is Maton back on the radar now? You are already over the cap, and Maton is not going to be a big price tag. It’s something I would do.

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    • I’m writing a Hader post right now – hopefully up sometime later today/tonight.

      By the way – two days ago before the Graveman announcement I told my brother they needed to chase Hader.

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  20. Just when you thought the Astros were going to stand pat they go and surprise us with something like this. I guess Crane is all in on getting back to the World Series. I like it.

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