Astros 2024: The best of times – The worst of times

With all apologies to the Ghost of Charles Dickens – we are going to take a look at the upcoming 2024 season through rose–colored glasses….and then through Roy Orbison’s black sunglasses. We are going to look at the everyday lineup, the starting pitching, and the bullpen with a best-case scenario and a worst-case scenario view.

One quick note – while injuries automatically can feed into the worst-case scenario – we will assume here that there is a normal amount of injuries but we will look at the scenarios more from a performance standpoint.

Everyday Lineup

Best Case Scenario

• Let’s see here….first you get 150 games out of both Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve factoring up what they did in 2023. That would give Yordan a .293 BA/.407 OBP/.990 OPS/ 101 runs/ 41 HRs/ 128 RBI season and Altuve would put up a .311 BA/ .393 OBP/ .915 OPS/ 126 runs/ 28 HRs/ 85 RBIs/ 23 SBs. Nice start.
• Jose Abreu would put up his career norms for a 150 game season – .286 BA/ .348 OBP/ .843 OPS/ 81 runs/ 28 HRs/ 101 RBIs.
• Alex Bregman is playing for his next contract and for the first time in his career has a good start to the season – he looks a lot like 2018-2019 Bregs – .280/.390/.900/110 runs/ 30 HRs/ 110 RBIs.
• Yainer Diaz would repeat 2023 with about 450 ABs and would increase that terrible 2.9% walk rate. Let’s say…. .282 BA/ .330 OBP/ .846 OPS/ 70 runs/ 30 HRs/ 80 RBIs.
• Chas McCormick does what he did in 2023, but over 580 ABs instead of 403…. .273 BA/ .353 OBP/ .842 OPS/ 85 runs/ 32 HRs/ 101 RBIs.
• Jake Meyers does what he did in 2021 over 400 ABs – .260 BA/ .323 OBP/ .761 OPS/ 60 runs/ 16 HRs/ 77 RBIs.
• Jeremy Pena combines the best of 2022 and 2023 – .263 BA/ .324 OBP/ .426 SLG/ .750 OPS/ 32 doubles/ 81 runs/ 22 HRs/ 63 RBIs.
• Kyle Tucker, Mauricio Dubon, and new catcher Victor Caratini repeat their numbers from 2023.

That would be an awfully strong offensive team.

Worst Case Scenario

• I will make an exception here on Yordan Alvarez and say that the only thing that stops this unbelievable hitter would be an injury that wipes him out – let’s assume he only plays half the season.
• Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman try too hard playing for their next contract. Breggy gives us 2021-ish production – .270/.350/.780/60 runs/15HRs/ 60 RBIs and ‘Tuves starts to hit his age – .270/.350/.800/ 80 Runs/ 20 HRs/ 70 RBIs.
• Jose Abreu continues to struggle with his age and back and sinks even farther in 2024 – .225 BA/ .280 OBP/ ,660 OPS/ 60 runs/ 15 HRs/ 70 RBIs.
• The league figures out that Yainer Diaz does not like to come to the plate and not swing and feeds him impossible to hit pitches all season long – .245 BA/ .266 OBP/ .720 OPS/ 45 runs/ 15 HRs/ 50 RBIs.
• Chas McCormick gets more at bats, which exposes him to more right handed pitching and he looks more like 2022 than 2023 – .240 BA/ .330 OBP/ .730 OPS/ 55 runs/ 18 HRs/ 60 RBIs.
• Jake Meyers continues to fail at the plate – falling somewhere between 2022 and 2023 even with additional at bats – .227/.280/ .630/ 50 runs/ 12 HRs/ 40 RBIs.
• Jeremy Pena continues to experience a power outage and when he tries to go back to his 2022 power numbers his offensive game falters – .240 BA/ .280 OBP/ .660 OPS/ 50 runs/ 8 HRs/ 45 RBIs.
• Kyle Tucker tries to show off why he should be extended and instead slumps like during the 2023 playoffs, Mauricio Dubon falls off as his playing time falls off. Victor Caratini turns into Maldy 2.0.

This would be ugly.

Starting Pitching

Best Case Scenario

• Justin Verlander falls somewhere between his unworldly 2022 and his good, but not transcendent  2023 – 15-6 / 2.50 ERA / 180 IP.
• Framber Valdez carries a baby’s pacifier to the mound and self-soothes within the pitch clock channeling his 2022 and early 2023 success – 16-8 / 3.00 ERA/ 200 IP.
• Cristian Javier and his 2022 Invisiball return – 12-8 / 3.20 ERA/ 155 IP.
• J.P. France continues his strong showing from 2023 – 12-6/ 3.60 ERA/ 130 IP
• Hunter Brown learns from an up and down 2023 and shows improvement across the board – 12-8 / 4.00 ERA/ 135 IP.
• Lance McCullers returns around June and gives the rotation a shot in the arm – 8-3/ 3.15 ERA/ 100 IP.
• Luis Garcia returns in August and pitches solidly down the stretch – 5-3 / 3.60 ERA/ 55 IP.
• Jose Urquidy, if he is not traded along the way is the swing man – rolling between the bullpen and the rotation and channels his inner Brad Peacock – 6-2 / 3.20 ERA/ 100 IP.

That is a lot to ask.

Worst Case Scenario

• Verlander continues to lose a bit off the fastball and falls off even more in his age 41 season – 10-10 / 3.60 ERA/ 150 IP
• Framber duplicates his 2023 post All Star Break slide – 10-12 / 4.60 ERA/ 180 IP.
• Cristian keeps throwing a Visiball, but unlike in 2023, his below average ERA results in more losses – 8-10 / 4.60 ERA/ 140 IP.
• With a lot of video available on him, J.P. France falls into the same funk he suffered from in August and September of 2023 – 5-12/ 5.50 ERA/ 100 IP.
• Hunter Brown continues to be way too hittable, especially with Home Runs – 7-10/ 5.00 ERA/ 100 IP.
• Lance McCullers never comes back.
• Luis Garcia returns in August, but continues to struggle with his new non-rockabye wind-up – 3-5 / 4.80 ERA/ 40 IP.
• Jose Urquidy struggles in his undefined role of wandering the pitching landscape – 3-6 / 5.20 ERA/ 80 IP.

Ouch.

Relief Pitchers

Best Case Scenario

• Ryan Pressly with a little longer off-season and no WBC wear and tear, comes back fresh and closer to his 2022 self – 4-2 / 30 saves/ 3.02 ERA.
• Bryan Abreu continues to be a lights out high leverage set-up man who is given a few more save opportunities – 3-1 / 8 saves / 1.80 ERA.
• Rafael Montero picks up where he left off in the second half of 2023 (which was near what he showed in 2022) – 4-2 / 2 saves / 3.10 ERA.
• Kendall Graveman continues his very consistent and solid numbers between 2021 thru 2023 – 5-4 / 2 saves/ 3.15 ERA.
• Dylan Coleman flashes back to his fine 2022 numbers including a bit better control and fills the Phil Maton role – 5-2 / 2.80 ERA.
• Seth Martinez puts a poor 2023 behind himself and channels a very good 2022 – 3-2 / 2.50 ERA.
• Someone from among Forrest Whitley, Bennett Sousa, Oliver Ortega, and Declan Cronin breaks out and moves up from the bottom of the bullpen to more and more highly leveraged appearances.

Hey – maybe it could happen.

Worst Case Scenario

• Ryan Pressly slides a bit more down the slope with age and usage – 2-4 / 20 saves / 3.99 ERA.
• Bryan Abreu allows the “incident” to get in his head and turns into a Wild Thing version of Mitch Williams. 2-6 / 2 saves/ 4.30 ERA.
• Rafael Montero picks up where he left off in the first half of 2023 (which was nearer what he showed for most of his career) – 1-7 / 0 saves / 6.60 ERA.
• Kendall Graveman starts allowing runs more in line with his 1.522 WHIP after getting traded to the Astros – 2-4 / 0 saves / 4.44 ERA.
• Dylan Coleman never gets over his control problems from 2023 (19 walks / 5 HBP in 18.1 innings) – 0-4 / 0 saves / 8.00 ERA.
• Seth Martinez is who he was in 2023 – 2-4/ 0 saves/ 5.40 ERA.
• Forrest Whitley, Bennett Sousa, Oliver Ortega, and Declan Cronin and a cast of a dozen others try to put out the fire with gasoline….

And that would be bad….

Reality Check – It is not likely that everyone soars or falls together.  There will be some folks on either end of the spectrum here, but the hope is that the majority of the “bell curve” folks are on the plus side of the middle when all is said and done.

So, where do you think this all goes?