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Astros 2024: New Year’s resolutions

Earlier this week, we discussed our best wishes for the Astros in 2024.

Astros 2024: Best luck for a new year – ALL THINGS ASTROS (chipalatta.com)

But today we get a little more specific as we choose areas that each player should make a resolution to address in 2024.

Yainer Diaz – The fans rightfully love this guy, but it has been pointed out that he surprisingly was much less effective against lefties (.214 BA/ .243 OBP/ .620 OPS) vs. righties (.307/.332/.931), so hopefully that was being worked even last year. But he also needs to work on his clutch stats. With runners in scoring position (RISP) he slashed only (.228 BA/ .245 OBP/ .636 OPS). His two outs and RISP was even worse (.186/.222/.571) and his Late and Close was also miserable (.197/.216/.456). Some of that may be from sitting on the bench all game and then getting tossed out there for a late at bat.

Jose Abreu – Abreu was a bit of an enigma in 2023. Unlike Diaz he thrived with RISP (.275 BA/ .350 OBP/ .906 OPS) and went crazy with 2 outs RISP (.387/.446/1.193) but sucked late and close (.203/.281/.605). With a 2-2 count he was terrible (.146 BA/ .156 OBP/.425 OPS), but if he could get to 3-2 he was solid (.250/.500/.875). Beyond everything he needs to pull up that overall slash number .237 BA/.296 OBP/ .680 OPS all numbers sitting way below his career numbers .286/ .348/.843. Even halfway between would help a bunch.

Jose Altuve – You can’t really make a resolution to stay healthy, Jose’s hit by pitch in the WBC was just bad luck. Beyond that his numbers were excellent for someone who had a late start to the season and who missed additional games due to a mid-season oblique injury. Still his numbers were strong against lefties/ righties/ RISP/ 2 outs RISP/ Late and close/ etc. His assignment is to figure out how to raise up that home slash (.286 BA/ .386 OBP/ .779 OPS) – which was still good – to something closer to his transcendent road numbers (.349/.405/1.035). Maybe those batting eye complaints are more than just psychological.

Jeremy Pena – Interestingly, Jeremy’s power outage in 2023 (no homers after July 5) corresponded with a real rise in BA and OBP for Pena. He had a .251 BA and .306 OBP before that date and .277 BA and .343 OBP after that date. Those are solid numbers – his .692 OPS in the second half, not so much. One thing we would like to see Jeremy do is improve his numbers against right handed pitchers, which means laying off the two feet out and away sliders. His numbers against lefties were a very good .325 BA/.368 OBP/ .834 OPS, but he only hit .239/.307/.655 against the same hands. If he could pull this up a bit, he could be a good offensive weapon.

Alex Bregman – Should we just give up on the bad early/good late comments on Alex? Again in 2023 pre-All Star Game he had a so-so .240 BA/ .338 OBP/.726 OPS slash and after it he slashed an excellent .290/ .394/.901. Let’s look at comparing Bregman to Altuve on a few things. Altuve on ground balls is hitting .312 BA/ .645 OPS, while Bregman is hitting .237 BA/ .500 OPS. In an even more extreme example on fly balls Altuve is hitting .301 BA/ 1.241 OPS while Bregman is hitting .160 BA/ .683 OPS. They both have BA’s over .600 on line drives. This matches the eye test. Bregman hits way too many “fly balls” that are really pop-ups and hits more fly balls than he hits either ground balls or line drives. Can Bregman improve on this? Would sure love to see what would happen.

Kyle Tucker – Tucker really has some fine numbers whatever way you look at it – with great numbers against righties, lefties, RISP, 2 outs RISP, late and close, etc. Like most of the team he could stand some improvement at home over away. One oddity is that on balls hit to the infield he had 10 hits in 185 ABs for a .054 BA. Jose Altuve for instance had 23 hits in 149 ABs for a .154 BA. Of course, that is probably because most of Tucker’s ground balls were rolled over to the right side and Altuve’s to the left side, but you would think a man with Tucker’s speed might get a bit more out of that. Oh well.

Chas McCormick – Overall, Chas was very solid last year. Excellent against lefties, good against righties, one of the few Astros who hit better at home than on the road. Decent numbers on RISP, etc.  Chas I want you to work on this. With a 2-2 count he is slashing .132 BA/ .145 OBP/ .380 OPS, which is miserable. With a full count his batting average is only .154. He needs to do better.

Jake Meyers – Man where do I start? Just hit better.

Yordan Alvarez – Yordan has hardly any weaknesses. I hate to repeat something, but basically Yordan is hitting .149 with both a 2-2 count and a full count and he should be better than that.

Mauricio Dubon – Dubon had a good season. But he really, really needs to take more walks. His 3.9% walk rate is less than half the 8.6% MLB average.

Justin Verlander – One of the things that stood out about Verlander’s 2023 was that his WHIP number (the total of walks and hits given up per 9 innings of pitching) rose dramatically. It had been below .902 since he came over in 2017 and then it went up to 1.133 in 2023. Maybe he can not be the same guy who kept those walk numbers and hit numbers so low, but hopefully he can hold the line.

Framber Valdez – Framber, you need to figure out what you did from the beginning of the season through your start on June 2 (6-4, 2.16 ERA) vs. what you did the rest of the season (6-7, 4.31 ERA). We know that you fell into a number of meltdowns along the way. C’mon man. Channel the real you and you will be fine.

Cristian Javier – Did the new contract put too much pressure on him? His ERA went up two runs. His hits per 9 IP and his HRs per 9 IP both went up about 40%. His K rate went down about 25%. He really needs to get back to the guy whose “invisiball” led to those big K numbers in 2022.

Hunter Brown – He went from the guy who did not give up a home run in a fairly small sample in 2022, to a guy who was giving up 1.5 HRs per 9 innings. But for something to really work on, he needs something that works better against righties, as he gave up a bad slash of .276 BA/ .341 OBP/ .839 OPS, much worse than his numbers against lefties. Maybe he needs to develop another pitch.

J.P. France – J.P. was a lot better on the road (6-2, 3.11 ERA) than at home (5-4, 4.52 ERA), and the biggest difference was home runs as in about the same amount of innings (69 at home/66 on the road) he gave up a lot more HRs (12 at home/ 7 on the road). It is an area he needs to fix.

Jose Urquidy – Jose never really hit his stride in a partial season interrupted by his early injury. His ERA went from an acceptable 3.94 in 2022 to a poor 5.29 ERA in 2023. The big rise in his WHIP number from 1.168 to 1.429 fueled this with almost equal rises in more walks and more hits per 9 innings. He is pitching his way into a trade at this point.

Ryan Pressly – His 2023 was OK, but his ERA had popped up from a good 2.98 in 2022 to a closer to average 3.58. Looking at his numbers, his K rate was down 12.1 to 10.2 K/ 9 IP. His walk rate, which was good before, improved a bit in 2023. His biggest problem in 2023 was being more hittable. He was giving up almost 2 more hits per 9 innings and his home run rate rose more than 50%. Maybe he was a little worn out after a 2022 of big use through the World Series, plus starting off 2023 in the WBC. But he needs to work on drawing less contact.

Bryan Abreu – He was excellent in 2022 (4-0, 2 saves, 1.94 ERA) and excellent in 2023 (3-2, 5 saves, 1.75 ERA). Though he gave up less hits / 9 innings in 2023 vs. 2022, his home run rate went way up from 0.3 to 0.8 HR/ 9 IP. Granted – 0.3 is a ridiculously low and unsustainable rate, but it is perhaps an area he can work on. Oh, and not throwing behind the opposition during the World Series…..

Rafael Montero – His ERA more than doubled (2.37 to 5.08 ERA).  His hit rate per 9 innings was way up (6.2 to 9.9 hits/ 9 IP). His walk rate was significantly up (3.0 to 3.9 per 9 IP). And his home run rate was way, way up (0.4 to 1.5 HR per 9 IP).  There is a ton to work on (though he did improve in the second half of 2023). Here’s one – Rafael let’s work on getting the right handers out. Your .291 BA/ .354 OBP/ .884 OPS against righties was bad.

Kendall Graveman – One number stands out with Graveman when you look at his 2023 numbers. His walk rate (4.1 BB/ 9 IP) with the White Sox was not good. His walk rate with the Astros after the trade (6.4 BB/ 9 IP) was horrendous. This is someone with a 3.0 BB/ 9 IP for his career. He needs to trend back towards the norm as he was lucky to not give up a lot more runs last season.

There are others I have not touched on here, catcher Victor Caratini, reliever Dylan Coleman, Seth Martinez, Brandon Bielak, Grae Kessinger, Jon Singleton, David Hensley, etc. It is your turn to point out New Year’s resolutions for these or any of those I included here.

By the way, Happy New Year!!

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15 responses to “Astros 2024: New Year’s resolutions”

  1. ‘Tis a few hours early but, Happy New Year to all of our friends here and may the new year be wonderful for all of us and the Astros!

    Great health and a World Series for us all!

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  2. Team resolutions:
    Take MMP back from the rest of the teams.
    Play the first month like it is the last month of the season
    Keep in mind that, after 162 games, it is possible to only end up tied with your #1 enemy.

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  4. It is exciting to know that the team came so close to the World Series (and in my mind to the title) with so much gone wrong last season. This included health, included poor lineup management, included some guys (Tucker) just collapsing in the playoffs, included some starting pitching meltdown and whatever negative impact the WBC had on the team (Altuve’s injury and extra, early work by the pitchers).

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  5. From my daily baseball trivia calendar (I’ve changed it up slightly)…

    What did Zack Greinke do in a World Series for the Astros that was only done by Babe Ruth in the history of baseball?

    (Answer after 2:00)

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    • What Zack and the Babe did… each one played in a World Series game and pitched in that game. However, what sets them apart from the other pitchers is… they both did not bat in the ninth position of the batting order.

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      • Can’t remember which game in WS but I thought (as well as others) that Zack was going to PH for somebody but he never got to. Very disappointing. Maybe your memory is better than mine.

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  7. There is a lot of information here. My hot take on a few of your notes –

    Yainer Diaz – finding minor league splits seem impossible. It also seems impossible to draw a conclusion on 100 ABs. I don’t know if he can’t hit lefties or it was just the small sample anomaly. We watched him struggle against righties that throw away from him. Maybe because lefties are already starting away from him he is just struggling laterally. Unlike some other guys he has the bat-to-ball skills to overcome the bad eye, but it definitely needs to improve.

    Abreu just is what he is. What he is statistically the worst guy on the roster and a bottom 20 MLB hitter at his worst (during slumps) and a passable lighter version of his old self at his best. Father time is still undefeated.

    Pena – if I have to pick between the guy with below average OBP and a little pop or above average OBP and literally little pop – I’ll ask where is he in the batting order first. Hopefully he settles into a consistent whatever he is going to be so that he makes the managers job easy. I would probably want the OBP version.

    Most hitters have steep declines in average with 2 strikes. Chas is consistently underrated by the national media because he doesn’t look like a superstar, but when he was on the field in 2023 he was at bat by at bat as impactful as anyone not named Altuve or Alvarez. How does that translate to 2024? We will see.

    I expect Pressly to still be the go to guy when he is available. The Astros could limit his availability to much fewer back to backs, and start getting Abreu save opportunities. If Abreu finishes something like 11 for 12 in save opportunities then we know what we got for 2025 when Pressly is gone.

    Urquidy might get traded. If I were the Astros I would open with him in the rotation and Brown in the pen, and hope that he re-establishes himself as a reliable bottom of the rotation arm for a contender, because as soon as Garcia and McCullers start making rehab starts his trade value will be real. If he fails, Brown is back in and Urquidy probably won’t draw a bag of peanuts in a trade. Right now I am not sure he has a lot of value on the market or he would probably already be gone.

    I think Montero will be fine with a fresh start. That contract probably put him in settle mode, he was scouted a lot better, and he kept trying to do the same thing when major leaguers adjusted to him. I don’t think we see either the 2022 version or the 2023 version. He is one expensive 6th inning mid-leverage guy, but we are stuck with that one.

    Graveman – see Montero. Unfortunately he is probably going to be a higher leverage guy more often than we like.

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    • So I largely agree with what you’ve written. My completely ignorant, from the outside-looking-in opinions are that:
      – I don’t think Yainer fouls off too many pitches on purpose. It’s not a natural thing for guys like him that are used to barreling everything up against lesser pitching. It’s an area Chas improved on greatly and one I’m hoping Jake can figure out. If Yainer can just spoil a few more pitches he’ll end up improving greatly.
      – I expected the third year of Abreu’s contract to be a huge letdown, but he decided to start that early. I’m going into 2024 hoping Espada slides him lower in the lineup, he sees lots of pitches, and doesn’t leave too many men on base. I know he doesn’t bring the defensive value, but I feel a lot better about Crane paying his salary this year than what the Blue Jays just resigned Kiermaier for.
      – Pena needs to come to camp in playing shape. Again, I speak from ignorance, but the jacked up Pena was probably intending to be a 20HR guy in ’23 last February. I want him to be more focused in the field, chase fewer sliders, and hit more doubles.
      – I’d like to see Chas get about the same number of at bats this year as he did last. Some of the game is played on the field and not on paper and I think 500-600 at bats will just end up exposing him. Yes, he’d still be better over those couple hundred at bat than Jake, but if it means he regresses overall it could hurt us.
      – I agree with your take on Pressly and Abreu. I’d go so far as to say we need to not treat the 8th inning as the highest leverage spot in every game. Hopefully Espada considers who the other team has coming to the plate as well as whether we’re playing at home or on the road into the decision and isn’t just following a script. More off days for those arms gives us a better chance late in the year.
      – I’m sold on seeing what Brown can do in the bullpen. Let him go out and let it rip early in the year. If we have to move him back to the rotation maybe saving 50 innings early in the year will make him an option late in the year.
      – I gave up after mid-season, but ’23 Montero really didn’t throw much different than ’22 in terms of location, velocity, and pitch selection. I’m assuming it was a combination of other teams scouting him, perhaps a loss of late-movement, or just some bad luck. That makes ’24 a crap shoot in my opinion, but we’re paying him so let’s throw him out there and tell him to get batters out.
      – I didn’t realize we had Graveman for next year. Dan nailed it on him so I have nothing to add.

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  8. Amazing how many things went wrong yet we were still one game away from another WS. The good news is that most of these improvements/comebacks are not drastic. Good health and rest will allow us to use our depth as just that, not Plan B.

    Let the pundits and bandwagon jumpers underrate us again. Astros will see you in the 8th straight ALCS and fifth WS in eight years.

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  9. I believe that we’re in as good shape as last year. The issues will be can we get more out of our hitting, and better performance from our starters and relief corp. If so then all we have to be concerned with is what are our division rivals going to do? (Maybe not so much worry after all). I just think that in the hitting department we should have some addition by subtraction. I’d really like to have Maton and Neris back butI know we’re limited in the spending area. I didn’t think it would take a lot to get Maton back as he was making 2.5MM but maybe he’s looking for a big payday. Nobody’s signed either as of this moment so the jury’s still out.

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