Astros’ Offseason: 40-man adjustments and Rule 5

My buddies Rick and Justin were texting me back and forth yesterday about the upcoming deadline for moving players on/off the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 draft. Teams must solidify those rosters by Tuesday at 5 PM Central time before the December 6 Rule 5 draft. That means if there is any prospect that is eligible for the Rule 5 draft due to his time in the organization, the team must add him to the 40-man roster or risk losing him.

It also means the team must decide if some of the players on the 40-man roster, including those that are long-term on the IL (e.g. Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia) need to be passed through waivers at the risk of losing them.

Currently, the Astros have 37 players on the 40-man – three spots available for signing free agents sometime along the way. Looking at those 37 players – a good chunk of them will remain untouched and undiscussed. That includes the following 21 players:

• SP – Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, J.P. France, Jose Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr. (60-day IL), and Luis Garcia (60-day IL)
• RP – Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, Kendall Graveman, and Rafael Montero
• Position Players – Jose Abreu, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, Alex Bregman, Yainer Diaz, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick and Mauricio Dubon

The following 8 players would seem to be safe based on what they have done in the past or in the minors. Salazar is on here just because he is only the second catcher on the 40-man:

• SP – Brandon Bielak, Shawn Dubin, and Ronel Blanco
• RP – Seth Martinez
• Position Players – Jake Meyers, Corey Julks, Grae Kessinger, and Cesar Salazar

The following eight players, in my mind, are where the cuts would come to allow the team to put other players on the 40-man. My best guess – four of these remain, and four get waived.

Position Players – David Hensley and Jon Singleton – it feels like both of these guys could be released and possibly re-signed off the 40-man. However, with the lack of depth for position players in the organization, maybe they both stay.

Pitchers – Matt Gage, Joel Kuhnel, Parker Mushinski, Oliver Ortega, Bennett Sousa, and Forrest Whitley – obviously, Whitley is the one name here that really matters. It says here that they will give him one last chance, maybe as a bullpen piece.

The other side of this equation involves those prospects who are eligible to be taken in the Rule 5 draft. This includes the following from the top 30 list:

• OF Colin Barber (No.8) – after a strong 2022 at A+ ball, he had a solid, if not spectacular, season at Corpus in 2023.
• OF Kenedy Corona (No. 11) – Though his slash numbers were very similar to Barber’s – he played a good bit more and ended up with a 20 HR/ 31 SB season.
• OF Justin Dirden (No. 14) – After a tremendous first half at Corpus (.324 BA/ .411 OBP/ 1.027 OPS), he came down to earth at AAA (.231/.314/.710) in the second half.
• C/1B Miguel Palma (No. 17) – The plus side is he had a very good 2023 season in A+. The negative side would be that he is only up to A+ ball. But he was only 21 and of course had lost the 2020 pandemic season.
• INF Shay Whitcomb (No. 25) – He was very good at Corpus the first 46 games of the season, and at Sugar Land hit for a low average and for a lot of power. 35 home runs and 102 RBIs in 133 games has to catch your attention.
• RHP Jaime Melendez (No. 27) – Big arm with high K totals (and high walk totals) throughout his career. He only pitched in 3 games last season.
• RHP Misael Tamarez (No.30) – he was 1-10 with a 5+ ERA at AAA last season. Control problems, and who knows what he was working on in 2023?

Of course, often, Rule 5 draftees come from non-ranked prospects. Somebody who is unprotected and may be under the radar due to time missed. But from the guys shown, who would you protect by putting them on the 40-man? My friends went with Corona, Dirden, and Whitcomb, which is a pretty good shot at it.

Anyways – who do you want to protect, and who do you want to take off the 40-man?