This off-season is a time of processing and reflection for any Astros’ fan. The Astros fell just short of a World Series that in retrospect would have been theirs for the winning. For the first time in their history the team heads into the off-season knowing that a Texas team is the champion….but it is not them.
The Dusty “thing” won’t go gentle into that good night.
On the one hand, Dusty is right that his success should have granted him enough respect to not have his decisions questioned by 30 year olds, bloggers and tweeters. He was the manager of the defending world champions. He had taken them to two World Series in four seasons and fell one game short of the WS the other two times. He had won more regular season games than all but six of the plethora of managers who led teams over the history of baseball. He had taken all five of the teams he managed to the playoffs over the years and had won 54% of the games he managed – yes a better percentage than Rangers manager Bruce Bochy.
Yet, why in the world would a manager with these kind of credentials even care what 30 year olds tweet on X or what 67 year olds blog on Chipalatta?
Well, ego has a lot to do with it and perhaps some insecurity about his place in the baseball heavens. His alleged mishandling of young arms (Mark Prior, Kerry Wood) in Chicago and of course the Bartman meltdown got a lot more attention than his ability to almost get the Cubs to the promised land during his time there. He had tremendous regular season success in Washington but failed in the postseason and then had to watch as “his” team won the big one without him in 2019.
So, when he finally won his first championship with the Astros in 2022, perhaps he felt he was now on Mt. Olympus, a baseball god who could not be questioned. And that is never a good thing. The very best at what they do are always open to learning, to new ideas, or in this case, basic statistics. Nobody likes to be questioned, but people often react the most adversely when they know whoever is questioning them might have a point.
The bottom line – if Dusty had been able to give us any kind of explanation that made logical sense for playing Martin Maldonado so much more than Yainer Diaz, most of us would have backed off. But there was no logical reason and that is why he kept getting asked about it.
Were the Astros really one game short of the World Series?
I am not having a seizure or stroke here. I know the Astros ended up one win short of the World Series.
But truthfully, if they repeat 2023’s performance in 2024, there is a huge chance they will be sitting at home for the playoffs. 90 wins rarely wins a division and the AL West could well be a tougher nut to crack in 2024.
We expect the team to improve with full seasons from Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez. Utilizing Yainer Diaz and Chas McCormick more in line with their performance should mean something positive. A whole season of Justin Verlander should help, along with (hopefully) some contributions from Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia. A season that does not suck energy out of the players due to the WBC might also boost the team.
But they will not return to the heights if they get the same kind of starting pitching performance they saw from most of the staff in the second half of the season. Justin Verlander cannot carry the rotation by himself. Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and whoever starts from a grouping of Hunter Brown, Jose Urquidy, J.P. France and even McCullers and Garcia must not do the mostly poor job they did down the stretch or 2024 might end short of 2023.
With Dusty gone, who has the most power in the front office?
Ultimately, Jim Crane is the boss. But who will have his ear the most? GM Dana Brown? MTBNL (Manager to be named later)? OG’s Jeff Bagwell and Reggie Jackson? Perhaps a President of baseball operations is to be hired at some point?
Dan P’s gut feeling is that Dana Brown staying and Dusty Baker leaving must signal more power in the hands of Brown. He will certainly get tested in a lot of different ways this off-season, but for fans, it is critical to watch what actions he takes to sustain what has been a wonderful run of Astros’ baseball. If he does that, he will have certainly earned a longer leash than his predecessor had…..Though it could be argued that James Click had his leash turn into a choker the moment, he should have earned some slack.
Well, your turn to comment. The Chipalatta Awards for 2023 are coming next.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
39 responses to “Astros 2023: Dusty and other thoughts”
Good morning Dan. You’re up early! We’ll find out pretty soon if Dana Brown has been handed the reins. The naming of our next manager will at least give us an indication.
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We keep talking about Click. If he had been running the operation in 2023, it’s pretty certain that Montero would not have gotten his contentious contract. Hector Neris might be coming back in 2024. And It’s likely we would have had someone else at first base at a lower cost than 60 million for three twilight years.
I don’t know if he could have done anything about the Diaz or Chas issues without support from upstairs though.
I wonder how else he might have shaped the club differently. And I wonder more and more if Baker told Crane he simply did not want to work with Click.
Maybe it came down to Crane knowing he needed to get one of the two out of Houston last winter and Click was the easier one to move away from.
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Congrats to Dubon! I don’t know about others here but he sure fooled me as thought he couldn’t come close to Aledmy’s Diaz’s contribution. Boy was I wrong. Hoping we’ll get the same if not more from him in ’24.
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Not to beat the dead horse but I’d bet Dusty (and the committee was the reason for Click’s departure). It’s funny that we heard little from Click about his departure but plenty from Dusty about his. That speaks volume about the character of Click and the lack thereof for Mr Toothpick. Sorry, I got up on the wrong side of the bed this morning. I’m still simmering over our non appearance (and probably win) in the World Series.
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Why are we crying about James Click’s departure? Here were his moves:
– Traded for Brooks Raley
– Signed Ryne Stanek
– Signed Jason Castro for 2 years
– Re-signed Michael Brantley for 2 years
– Signed Jake Odorizzi for 2 years, $20.25M and a player option
– Traded Toro and Joe Smith for Graveman and Montero
– Traded for Yimi Garcia
– Traded Myles Straw for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton
– Traded for Luke Berryhill
– Traded Garret Stubbs for Logan Cerny
– Traded McDermott and Siri for Trey Mancini and Jayden Murray
– Traded Jake Odorizza to ATL for Will Smith
– Traded Enmanuel Valdez for Christian Vazquez
– Extended Yordan
– Extended Christian Javier
– Signed Verlander to 1 year deal with player options
– Took Seth Martinez in milb rule V draft
– Signed Pedro Baez
– Signed Hector Neris
– Traded Michael Papierski to SF for Mauricio Dubon
On that list we have the Straw trade with Cleveland, the Dubon trade with SF, the Montero deal with SEA, the Neris signing, and the Verlander signing that I’d call wins. I’m on the fence on the Montero deal since Graveman was the target and he complained about coming here and had mixed results in his first stint and then Crane signed Montero for more money than he was worth…but we can’t hold that part against Click. The Straw trade is fairly amazing and will be tough for Brown to top. After all those, it’s worth mentioning that despite not hitting much Mancini and Vazquez both contributed in the WS victory
I’m excited about Brown because of his background in player development and drafting. With nothing else to go on, however, here are Brown’s moves thus far:
– Signed Ty Buttrey
– Signed Bryan Garcia
– Selected Matt Gage off waivers
– Purchased Nick Allgeyer from Philly
– Purchased Kyle McGowin from Staten Island
– Purchased Joel Kuhnel from Reds
– Purchased Spenser Watkins from Baltimore
– Signed Jon Singleton
– Released Austin Davis and Bryan Garcia
– Traded Korey Lee for Graveman
– Selected Jake Cousins off waivers
– Released Ty Buttrey
– Traded Gilbert and Clifford for Verlander and a big bag of money
– Released Joe Perez
– Released Blake Taylor
– Waived Spenser Watkins
– Signed Andrew Knapp
– Released Kyle McGowin
– Released Nick Allgeyer
– Selected Bennett Sousa off waivers
– Granted free agency to Bligh Madris
– Selected Oliver Ortega off waivers
TL;DR: Click hit the jackpot once, had a few solid moves, and had a lot of moves that didn’t work out. Brown hasn’t done much and hasn’t (yet) done anything to convince me the candidate he would choose (ignoring outside influences) will be one we ultimately are happy with.
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107 wins and 11-2 on the way to winning the big prize in 2022. Credit obviously went to Baker as it should have, Click deserved the same but took the high road and left town apparently according to plan even before really having a chance to get back to work and soak in his accomplishment. And on those off season transactions I can add the 12 million to Brantley that I don’t think Click would have gone with, unless of course the boss told him to do it. I think we would have had a better club in 2023 if Click was still around to make his own winter moves, but the friction might have made things untenable.
Devin, those are in depth lists of transactions. That’s the way it works in the GM business. Most end up being inconsequential in the long run. But the under the radar throw in’s are what impress me. Especially Diaz. That was a trade for Maton. But apparently Click saw something that others did not, especially the Indians. He’s going to be an All Star going forward.
And now I hope that Brown really does get a chance to put his stamp on the club. I really hope he does not have Crane and Bagwell on his case daily. I’m waiting for an astute transaction from Dana, and I’m hopeful.
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I’m confused because I remember a ton of articles following the WS that basically amounted to Dusty Baker finally won the WS and Click should be getting a huge extension for getting him over the hump. I never agreed with either sentiment. It makes no sense to expect Baker had intended more than managing in 2023 in his plans when he decided to return and not retire following the WS victory. It also doesn’t make sense that Crane would have only offered Click one year unless he were unhappy with more than just the complaints coming from Dusty. What I still maintain is that not every free agent was willing to consider Houston and not every team was willing to deal with us.
That’s part of the business, but we still have to judge the GMs on the deals they did make. The state of the farm system and the success in ATL paint a clear picture why they brought in Brown. Now we have to see if he can be responsible for doing the same thing in Houston.
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Mauricio Dubon is a Gold Glove winner for his utility role. That should pay him a few extra bucks.
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I think you hit the nail on the head with your comment about Dusty feeling like he was above criticism. Like a lot of us old guys he became a legend in his own mind. I think some of his decisions were aimed at demonstrating his “superior knowledge”. His use of Julks and Singleton in situations that clearly warranted other choices and his statements that we would thank him in the future for how he handled Diaz are cases in point. His support of Maldonado as a game planner ignored the fact that Framber and Javier especially didn’t soak in the magic. He apparently was afraid or unwilling to give Diaz the experience with established pitchers so his was a self-fulfilling prophecy.
I genuinely hope that Dana Brown is given the chance to mold the team. Was he hired as someone who could revive the underpinnings of the team or a mere token? Clearly his instincts regarding Diaz were correct but then I was underwhelmed by his first draft, which is supposed to be his specialty. Does he really think Tucker is worth extending (a much safer and more appropriate move than even trying to re-sign Springer or Correa IMO), and if so will Crane give him the freedom and $$$ to make it happen? If he hires Joe Espada to manage the team I will start feeling more optimistic.
As for Abreu I’m cautiously hopeful that he may expand on his late season success. He was hitting the ball harder than anyone except Yordan after his IL stint. I would be shocked if he went the next two seasons performing like he did in August through September but doubt he will be as inept as his first few months. Montero’s situation reminds me of Tony Sipp who, if memory serves, had a good season, got a sweet multi-year deal and then sucked until the last year of his untradeable contract. That probably means Montero will be bad in 2024 but revive in 2025. Oh well, let the hot stove be kindled.
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Dr Bill – great to hear from you.
One possible positive – just like Abreu was much better the second half of the season, Montero was solid after the All Star Break going 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA. So maybe he can be a good piece for 6th or 7th inning usage.
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They certainly did not soak in the magic Dr. Bill!
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Sipp/Montero is a great comparison.
Abreu wasn’t really that good in Aug/Sep. He hit .188 in August, .237 in September. His best month was June where he hit .292 and at times carried a few games. He did hit 7 HR in September vice 5 in June, but overall I would rather see his June be the month that you hope he sticks too. If he is hitting .292 with 5 HR and 21 RBI a month, he is well on his way to a Jose Abreu season. I just don’t see it happening.
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Dubon’s golden glove win is awesome!
Brown has to come up with 3 relievers. Let’s see, there’s promotions from within, there’s trades, there’s free agency, there’s waivers, there’s rule 5, and there is our AAA. We have six current starters plus LMJ. This does not seem like a huge problem to overcome.
We need someone to back up Yainer behind the plate. This does not seem like a big problem.
We need a manager and our GM likes the in house candidate. This does not seem like a big deal.
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Dusty has beef with “bloggers.” *cough cough* Dan. 🙂
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Dan, like you, I was shocked to hear Dusty lament being irked by bloggers and tweeters. Does anyone here think Astro players or anyone else associated with the org read Chipalatta, or blogs for that matter? Chas or Diaz did not mind the fan support no doubt, lol.
I bemoan the fact Crane felt the need or urgency to surround himself with, not one Hand, but several, namely Bagwell and Jackson. These Masters of Whispers (er’s) names crop up all to often for my taste, a recipe for disaster outside the purview of the man he hired to do that job. Let us hope sensibility reigns moving forward least we find the club going ‘Old School’ much to the chagrin of the fandom.
OP, you nailed it with the necessities listed above. Let’s see if Crane ponies up $$$ to strengthen the roster.
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Who Baker is referring to is ESPN Houston and morning radio, which spent most of the season saying the same things we are. To be honest, I think most of our opinions are organic, I don’t listen to their morning radio shows, read The Athletic, or watch anything other than the shortest little 45 sec clips of Houston SportsMap, and I assume a lot of us don’t, and the fact that we came up with the same conclusions should tell Dusty something. But apparently, it didn’t.
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The guy who wrote it probably just looked like little Bobby Zimmerman, a/k/a ‘Bob Dylan’. But here’s what he had to say between mournful blasts on the harmonica:
Well, it ain’t no use to stomp and cuss and cry, DB;
we ain’t listenin’ anymore.
Tell it to the HPD or FBI, DB;
while we say ‘Adios, Senor!”
As I recall nobody … fired your *SS;
you just walked away … spewing sass;
leavin’ us with yet another … empty glass
Ah, but don’t think twice … we’re alright.
Our guys got beaned while you sat on your tail, DB;
do you think we owe you now?
You gave us line-ups guaranteed to fail, DB;
now you come off holier-than-thou?
Well if those millions you made while you were here
don’t give you comfort in the coming year,
think about the glory days of your career,
And don’t think twice … we’re alright.
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Brilliant
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When I read the first line – I thought you were writing to Dana Brown (DB), but soon new it was the old guy DB Dusty Baker
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Careful, Dan. You’ll get me thinking about the DB Brothers – and I might just start takin’ it to the streets.
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Along with being a great song “Taking it to the Streets” – it was also the title of a Doobie Bros. album that did a good job of spanning the Tom Johnston and Michael McDonald eras. I think the song titles from that album could well be applied to where we are with the Astros…
“Wheels of Fortune” – The Astros had a good bit of luck go their way to somehow win the AL West
“Takin’ It to the Streets” – This is how the bloggers and tweeters got rid of Dusty
“8th Avenue Shuffle” – Maybe the Crawford St. shuffle
“Losin’ End” – The 7th game of the ALCS
“Rio” – Where most of the team is vacationing now?
“For Someone Special” – A gift from the fans to the postseason version of Yordan Alvarez
“It Keeps You Runnin’” – Kyle Tucker and his 30 SBs
“Turn It Loose” – What Dana Brown will be saying to the new manager – relative to Yainer Diaz
“Carry Me Away” – What we want he 2024 team to do for us
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This whole Dusty vs. the blogger thing.
Do I think I know more about baseball than Dusty Baker? No.
But I do know a lot after 57 seasons of following the Astros and baseball in general.
And I don’t think you have to be Bill James to find stats that tell you why the Yainer vs. Maldy decision was pretty clear cut.
Did Maldy hit better than Yainer – No
Did he throw out a higher percentage of runners than Yainer – No
Did he give up a lot more passed balls than Yainer per inning played – Yes
Did the team win a higher percentage of games when Maldy was catching vs. Yainer – No
Were the team’s pitchers putting up a better ERA when Maldy was catching vs. Yainer – No
There is no way I know more than Dusty after his 20+ seasons of playing plus 20+ seasons of managing. But as I apply it to my own work, I know when I am wrong and I know how to admit it.
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Allow me to add this tidbit. Will Verlander, Valdez, Javier, or perhaps Uqiidy’s, all of a sudden be unable to pitch with Diaz C next season? Will they collectively throw tantrums to the new manager or Crane over preference, or will they give their best efforts to win with the far superior offensive/defensive threat squatting behind the dish? This issue was a managerial fissure many felt had a negative impact on this team. It certainly created dissent among the fans, including the GM. But in the end it was DB’s decision to sink or swim with.
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I think everyone will be okay, except Framber still might freak out. That’s why I want to trade him for Christmas presents.
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Some stuff is pretty straight forward. Most stats are. And most experts these days think cERA is hoohie too. So we were left with the conjecture of a few that our catcher provided wisdom and leadership. Fair enough. But our own eyes told us much more. That was plenty enough for me combined with all those stat comparisons between the old guy and our new guy.
One thing I just noted a couple of days ago. Our old guy was the worst framer in MLB at least per Baseball Savant stat cast. 1st percentile. So did our pitchers really think he helped them out? Or are they relieved too?
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Pretty hard to be a good framer when you can’t catch the ball – leading all baseball in passed balls and that does not count the many balls that he did not catch with the bases empty.
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Enoli Paredes cleared waivers and was outrighted off the roster. He is eligible to become a free agent.
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Trying not to jump the gun. Are any of the BP pieces we lost worth the $$ to bring back or the tm could bolster the pen better with what’s available elsewhere?
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It’s just my opinion Andre, but maybe the time has come for Dana Brown to start building his version of a bullpen.
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Tough sell. Maton may be affordable, the Astros have effectively lost 2 5/6th inning medium leverage guys, and 1 7th/8th inning high leverage guy. Those are critical spots.
I think Maton knows who he is. He doesn’t look or feel misplaced in that role. He can probably be brought back on a slight pay increase kind of contract. Stanek probably thinks he can perform in a higher leverage role, and the Astros aren’t going to pay the expected salary on that role.
Neris is interesting. If his agent is using Montero’s deal as a precedent the Astros seem likely out. The question is do you use your available cap space on the BP, or do you use it on a LF/CF option? Consider they still have a backup catcher to find too. The Astros don’t seem to be a franchise that is willing to operate beyond the 227M tax. I personally would use it on the BP, but I am not Brown, and I hope he is better at this than me.
I keep having this reoccuring dream that the Astros were able to take advantage of the desperation in San Diego and pawn off Abreu on the Padres, who are a vacuum for bad contracts and have a hole at 1B you can drive a 18 wheeler through. Heck, I wouldn’t even ask for anything in return. But alas, I wake up every morning to the realization that Abreu is at 1B for this team for 2 more long seasons.
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Dusty Baker is the past. Time to move on.
Martin Maldonado is the past. Time to move on. Framber started pitching competitively around 14-15 years ago. He has thrown to dozens of catchers. He will be fine.
Next year you are looking at a pretty set lineup that will have Diaz behind the plate most days, still have Abreu and Pena – two guys with big periods of non contributions that need to improve their consistency – and question marks about what position Chas should hold everyday. His flexibility remains an asset, but he arguably doesn’t really the arm for right field or the arm/range you want from CF, but that he can move over and you can trust him to make the reads and put himself in the best spot to succeed on a tough play means you can explore a more offensive, probably left handed, option to share DH/LF with Alvarez and fill a bench role if that is what they choose to do. All in all, the lineup is in good shape even if Dubon ends up in CF 80+ games – I feel good about the offense going into 2024 even if they don’t make a move there.
Pitching – just inconsistent. I think they have to pretty much rely on the same arms. There are no new guys coming from either the minors nor do they have the money to do anything more than flyer taking (unless you consider McCullers returning a “new” arm, they certainly will be happy about the prospective depth). Neris opting out frees up 8.5M, taking them to an estimated 15M ish – won’t know where they are until arby’s are over – and replacing Neris with certainty will cost more than 8.5M. The Astros should be in the discussion on that deal if they can keep it at 2 – Montero’s deal will scare anybody but Neris has more than 1 good season. He is a lifelong reliever with a good ERA in 546 games. He is a safer bet to roll those dice on, but he is also 34, not 31. Longer than 2 is taking a risk that I would be, and I bet the team will be, adverse to.
The most important thing this team needs is just as much good news/luck with the injury bug as the bad luck they had last year. Every time an injury update came out it felt like it was just terrible news.
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I don’t know if the budget allows for a new guy from outside to strengthen the outfield.
I also don’t know what other team puts up more offense in the outfield than when the Astros have Yordan-Chas-Tucker on the field at the same time.
But I really don’t want Yordan in left for anything more than 50 or so games, maybe 75 as an absolute max. So I’d simply put Chas in left when Yordan is the DH.
Center would be more of the same I think. Chas, Dubon and a few games from Jake, or whatever 5th outfielder gets the job out of Spring Training. But I’d love to add a thriving Loperfido to the mix by the All Star break.
I’d also be pleased to start seeing Altuve get some DH days when Yordan is out in left. Obviously, Dubon is better defensively at 2nd.
It’ll be interesting to see how the pitching staff turns out. I’ve already made my long shot plans clear. And I am hung up on Seth Lugo as our new Charlie Morton.
Let’s get at it!
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The Astros won’t botch their manager search, will they? Seems that Dana Brown remains in no hurry. He continues to speak highly of Joe Espada and says he deserves a chance. But he’s talking about maybe getting the job done by Thanksgiving. Jim Crane seemingly thinks the process will be a quick one. If Chandler Rome is accurate is yesterday’s Athletic article, Brown thinks Espada would need permission before talking to any other club. But as Rome pointed out, Espada’s contract ended on October 31. So Joe is on his own. Everyone else seems intent on getting their manager hiring done. Even the Cubs made their unexpected move. But Milwaukee and San Diego and the Angels still need to fill their openings. I hope the Astros end up with the guy they want. But if I’m Joe Espada, I’m out pounding the pavement.
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Write a comment:
-I know a 75 year-old blogger who got a buck on the closing evening of muzzleloader season.
-The Astros like to try to sign their own stars to extensions. Sometimes they sign and they stay. Sometimes they don’t sign and they walk. Somehow the Astros have been to 7 consecutive ALCSs using this formula and adding young prospects into the mix along with an affordable FA or two.
-I expect the Astros to try and get every value possible from their players and, when the time comes, not to invest more money in the future of players who have little to no chance of returning the value of that investment.
-I see a lot of good in the Astros having a very good lineup and a good starting rotation available in 2024, while most of their top prospects will be coming of age in the high minors at the same time to be added when needed in 2025 or earlier if necessary.
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Ron Washington hired to manage the Angels
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Better them than the Astros.
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Time to cut bait!!
Via Yardbarker: Scott Boras stated, earlier today, that his client, Lance McCullers WILL pitch this season but it not known WHEN he will pitch.
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Chatter about the Astros resigning Maldonado to backup Diaz. Let’s see… four of the six starting pitchers prefer Maldonado catching over Diaz… heck NO! That is dangerous to the clubhouse.
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I’ve read a couple of people mentioning the Astros might be interested in bringing back Maldonado. And just today Fan Graphs was suggesting the best place for Brantley would be back in Houston for about 10 million. But I’ve also read that Brown is prepared to move on from our free agents maybe with the exception of Neris.
One thing though. Have four of our starting pitchers actually stated they preferred to pitch to Maldy? The worst framer in MLB? The guy that led the league in passed balls? The guy that can’t throw out baserunners? I’m not convinced.
Now if Bagwell sells Crane on Ausmus and Ausmus likes Maldy, well then we could be screwed again I suppose.
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