Your faithful servant has not been so faithful the last few days. The Astros ALCS loss deflated my creative juices a bit. But it is time to jump back in here with an Astros offseason Q&A with the closest expert I can find. The man in the mirror.
Q: How crucial is the replacement hiring for the Astros’ manager spot that Dusty Baker’s “retirement” has opened?
A: For a team with the talent of an Astros outfit that has made it to the ALCS seven consecutive times, it is easy to say that it is not a big deal. It is easy to say that the health of Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve Lance McCullers (etc., etc.) has a bigger effect on the success of the team than who is writing out the lineup cards.
But….a couple things here come to mind. First, the person who is chosen to be the Astros’ next manager should give the fans some insight into the power base of the front office. Are the OG’s (Reggie and Bags) making this pick? How about owner Jim Crane? Or will Dana Brown get to choose the person he should be in lockstep with, which does not describe his relationship with Dusty Baker.
Second, while in general, I think a manager does not affect that many games in a season of 162, I felt like the way Dusty under-utilized Yainer Diaz (or over-utilized Martin Maldonado) along with avoiding using Chas McCormick in the first half of the season, cost this team 4 or 5 games. This made making the playoffs a tougher go and may have put more strain on the pitching staff. I also think that once a team gets into the playoffs and goes seven games, the managerial difference could flip one game.
To me, the choice of a manager for a likely playoff team is more critical than for one that is flopping around at the bottom or the middle of the standings.
Q. With an established team like the Astros, which has few holes to fill, how critical is this off-season?
A. This is a very important off-season for GM Dana Brown. He was hired in early 2023 after most of the important decisions about the team were made. This is his first off-season to put his stamp on the team.
- What direction is he taking the team?
- Does he re-sign any of the free agents coming loose at the end of the World Series? Does he tender a Qualifying Offer to anyone (the answer is no)?
- Does he trade anyone to try and get younger?
- Is there anyone arb eligible that he does not tender an offer?
- Most importantly, he had indicated wanting to sign extensions with Framber Valdez, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker last Spring Training. Is he still interested, especially the way Framber collapsed in the second half of this season?
- Will he let the new manager bring in any new coaches?
- How will he work with Jim Crane, the new manager, and the OG crew?
Q. Where does this team go relative to pitching, both starters and relievers?
A. A few questions I think the front office must answer heading into 2024 in relation to the pitching staff.
- How much did the early participation in the World Baseball Classic affect their pitchers? Did this lead to the reported dead arm of Cristian Javier?
- Were the poor second halves of Hunter Brown and J.P. France due to teams catching up with them during their extended exposure over the course of the season? Or were they worn out from pitching more innings than they had ever pitched before?
- Will they really have Lance McCullers back for the start of the season?
- Will they have Luis Garcia back at all? If they get him back, can he stay healthy without using his rock-a-bye baby windup?
- Can they help Framber Valdez find peace on the mound?
- What are their plans to replace Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek and (likely) Hector Neris in the bullpen? Would any help come from the farm system?
- Might they finally add a left-handed arm to their arsenal?
- And are there any plans to move Bryan Abreu into Ryan Pressly’s closer’s spot? He outpitched Pressly for a big chunk of the season, but in the playoffs, Pressly was better.
It feels good doing a bit of a brain dump here. Where do you stand on these questions heading forward?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
58 responses to “A Q&A: Dan interviews Dan”
Dude, you’ve asked a whole lot more questions than you’ve provided answers to.
First off, getting the new manager signed is big. If Brad Ausmus gets the gig, we know all we need to know about the inner workings of our beloved Astros going forward. Personally I’ll be joining the Dynamo Buddies Fan Club.
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Yeah – just having fun answering questions with questions
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Players win games. The manager’s job is to get the players ready to play and manage their workloads; get out of the way and don’t screw things up. Of all the proposed managers previously mentioned, I think anyone except Banister or Showalter would do better than Dusty.
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The off season is of critical importance, regardless of who is making the decisions. But right now, it sure is hard to guess who will be taking the team in what direction. Dana, if he can stomach it, might just be a puppet. But I can add a few senior citizen opinions. I hate that term. I’d rather just be an old guy.
I don’t know if the club signs any of our free agents. Does Neris have a couple more good years in him? Maybe not. Can we pay him close to what Montero is getting? I don’t think so.
You guys already know about my trade plans and a desire to get younger. I want a more athletic team that can catch ground balls in front of the mound and throw them to first and maybe help our catcher throw guys out at second by being all around athletes on the mound. and thinking a lot. And we need younger guys that don’t freak out. And guys that run fast. They have a lot of those type guys playing in the World Series.
I don’t think any decision maker, Dana or otherwise will get all three of those guys resigned. All of them might have expectations the Astros will not go near. So let’s move Framber to start!
The new manager has to be allowed to bring in his own coaches. But I’ve already said the GM has to be allowed to bring in the new manager, so I’m probably wrong already.
How will Dana work with all those guys? I think he’s kind of screwed
The WBC could not have helped, especially since I’m pretty sure we had the most guys participating. Altuve was lost for months. We had a bunch of pitchers pitching that never got around to having a full off season. Tucker was in a haze early.
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Can we get Seth Lugo to be our new Charlie Morton for a couple of years?* He might cost a little more than what we’d be paying Framber in Arb money in 2024. Then what do we get for Framber? A back up catcher? An MLB ready young arm? Maybe a better outfield option than Jake? Maybe Jake goes with Framber. I think Dana, given the freedom, would make some changes to this club.
I expect a better year from Brown. He’ll be more mature. France? Too many innings, too fast. Both he and Brown really need at least one superior pitch. And Reptil? I’ve seen him pitch too well.
I did not know there might be expectations of McCullers in April. But I also would not expect the club to tell the world either.
Would Spencer Arrighetti be out of the question in the pen?
I’m good with Abreu and then Pressly. Pressly always seems to get up for the big games.
* And last, pitching coaches. How much did those guys help make our pitchers better? Hold runners on? Get the ball to the plate? Play defense around the mound? Did they teach our young guys anything? Maybe they were sidelined to a degree by the Pitcher Whisperer. We don’t know. But I could see a new manager wanting new blood in that area.
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– It is a little frustrating watching the Rangers roll towards a WS win knowing if the team just won one at home, that could be them.
– Interesting thought Daveb about the pitching coaches – the starters ended up 8th in the AL in ERA and we certainly did see their fielding hurt them in critical spots (along with their pitching).
– Thanks for chiming in AstroNut – I’m not wanting Showalter or Bannister
– Anybody else out there?
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I was going to watch the game last night but after I tuned in it was already 10 -0. I despise the Rangers, even more so than the Yankees and Dodgers combined but I hope we’ll be ready next year. Arizona is discovering that when you throw a fat juicy pitch to the Rangers batters, they pounce on it like a cat on a mouse.
All in all it looks like we’ll have pretty much the same team save for a few subtractions and additions. Whoever becomes the Manager he’ll have to figure out how to get the best out of what he has and play our guys so that they don’t burn out by September. What used to be a cake walk for us in the division is now a dogfight. I’ll bet the preseason forecasts will have us finishing 3rd in the division behind Texas and Seattle.
We have managed to trade away a couple of potentials in Ryan Clifford and Drew Gilbert for JV. At the time I guess that was an OK trade but we just don’t have much of a farm system anymore and we haven’t the resources to go after a bunch of free agents. And then there’s the disastrous contracts that we handed out to Montero, Abreu, Brantley, LMJ, and Javier. I guess that maybe some will pan out but the odds are not good.
I’m hoping Dana Brown can work some magic by restructuring our roster to get younger and better. Looking forward we’re stuck with a couple of Albatross’ in Montero, Javier, LMJ, and Abreu. I guess the question is do we stand pat or do some wheeling and dealing to replenish the ranks? Do we trade Tucker who more than likely will be moving on to the land of mega-contracts, do we resign Bregman and for how long and how much, and what about Altuve, who we want him to finish his career as an Astro but at what cost? What about Framber? Should we try to unload him and get some value or ride it out? His value dropped significantly this year as he became a Jekyll and Hyde pitcher. Just like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re going to get until he’s out on the mound.
Wow! Too many questions and maybe y’all have some answers. I’ll wait patiently for the answers. Have a great day all!
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It strikes me as interesting that so many people want to see Brown given the freedom to shape this team as he pleases. I don’t want a situation where he is butting heads with the manager, but I also don’t want to see a total makeover. I’ll give you an example from another sport – the Texans came to NC last weekend and lost to an 0-6 team that had been within one win of making the playoffs last year. The assumption from the fans here (and ownership) was that bringing in a team of offensive minded, high-profile names to coach and a franchise quarterback would vault the team into the postseason and fast track them to the Super Bowl or something. Instead, they replaced the offensive scheme that was based around power running with a zone blocking, RPO scheme and went to a (mostly) 3-4 alignment on defense where the pass rushing DE was moved to OLB. It hasn’t worked well and a big reason is the OL was great and smashing the guy in front of them but not so great at zone blocking and being isolated 1 on 1 against rushers in obvious passing downs. So, that’s a really long way of saying be careful what you wish for because you might get it. Do we bring in a manager who doesn’t work well with our veterans? What types of players/personalities does Brown bring in?
It’s not my money, but I see the window as very narrow. I want to see Brown replenish the farm system through strong drafts and free agent signings while not rocking the boat too much on the big league team. If you guaranteed me the remaining roster returns at 100% health in 2024 I’d expect another trip to the playoffs with a chance at the WS. I’d make the assumption we won’t have that luxury and be looking to add versatile pitchers and position players right now to provide depth where we need it.
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To me, the biggest key is finding a manager with a similar mind set to that of Dana Brown. Arguably, that not being the case in 2023 cost us.
I was not thrilled about the Verlander trade, to the point where I was willing to accept that the Astros might not play post season baseball this past season. As it turned out, we missed the World Series by a win. So in retrospect, I have to say it was a good signing. Teams go decades without sniffing a World Series.
The GM should be given the freedom to shape the team within reason. Otherwise, he should not have been hired. Shaping the team, making it better, that is his job. And if he fails, then part of the blame falls to the guy that hired him. And the GM goes home early.
Getting this Astros club younger is almost essential. Look at the last two teams running around the baseball field right now. So a bit of boat rocking is called for. And maybe by April or July, there will be names like Loperfido and Wagner and Arrighetti providing a spark. And in the meantime, I’m willing to see if our GM can come up with any wise trades. I know I’ll be disappointed if he stands pat.
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I am not so sure that bringing in the right guy to manage the Astros is as important as getting rid of the other one.
The participation of players in the WBC was the single most damaging thing to the Astros season. It put the Astros behind the 8 ball and the manager’s treatment of Diaz and McCormick combined with Abreu’s hidden back injury never gave the Astros enough ammo to catch up.
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By the way, was that back injury really hidden from everyone? That’s hard to fathom.
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News or maybe non-news
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/astros-interested-in-craig-counsell.html
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I’m more interested in who because I want to know who is in charge more than I care who it actually is. I would agree with OP, love the dude Dusty, but this is addition by subtraction. I think most of the people they actually consider are qualified to get that consideration will be better in many ways. Dusty’s demeanor will be missed though. I would support Craig Counsell.
I would also echo AstroNut that has the best comment so far – it’s about their use of frequency and volume to put guys in the position to succeed. Mostly, it’s about getting out of their way. It’s also important to look at nominal situations – for example its the middle of July, the Astros are matched up with DeGrom for a non-descript start, maybe that’s the day you give a guy like Abreu the “day off.” Just stop penciling in guys because they want to be 162 game options that are no longer 162 game options and be more consistent in getting guys that can have success in volume playing time. You don’t have to change a culture, you don’t have to rock the boat, you don’t have to call Abreu in your office and tell him he is a part timer, just make sure that todays game he gives you a better chance than say, Singleton or some other option, and most days he should, and when he doesn’t for that day, make a one day change. Dusty’s daily lineup card more times than not seemed like a “keep the veterans happy” card and less a “lets put our best foot forward today” card.
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This org has been, over the past 6-7 yrs or so, financially responsible/frugal by staying below the tax threshold. In that time Crane and his group of investors have filled their coffers off the success of the teams fielded, including filling seats at MMP. Is it time to stretch that tax threshold to get better now and the not so distant future? Is there a risk involved in making that leap of faith? Hell yes! Middling FA’s and dumpster diving might pay dividends, but if I’m writing checks I’m willing to take a calculated risk to improve next season, perhaps beyond, and keep those turnstiles rolling 3-4 mil every yr.
We don’t have a bench. We need a backup C and there is uncertainty on the P staff. There are position players here who do not need to play 158-62 games a season prior to postseason. Some of our position players were worn and too many failed offensively during home games and in the playoffs.
The FA position class is weak compared to P FA. P was the catalyst in winning the 2022 WS.
This team, while seemingly in dire straights, is poised to make that run next season. The Who is a conversation not ready to be explored until after the postseason. I think ownership needs to get a tad bit uncomfortable $$$ short term for a final run. And I do not believe they have to break the bank to do it.
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Q2 -Team is mostly intact. Not a crucial, franchise changing offseason. Given that 2024 and 2025 offseasons can be, and your losses are probably going to be replaced internally more than externally this offseason due to salary restraints, maybe start working on those salary restraints and the 2024 offseason now. Alex Bregman made 30 million last year. He will make the same this year. Do you think he is looking for a 3 year extension that is less than 80 million? Do our salary restraints put us in spot where we can’t sign both Altuve and Bregman? It seems likely, with Verlander and Abreu still on the books for the season after that. In 2025 you could get some breathing space but that could get taken up quickly by Tuck and Framber. KT deserves it as much as anyone but his contract is going to take the air out of the room in staff meetings.
Sportrac is estimating our current year, after arbitration number at 225M with a cap of 237M. If I were the Astros, unless you can get super creative, you almost have to look at younger options to be the 4th/5th OFer, you kind of have to hope Montero can bounce back to at least cover Stanek’s mid-leverage spot in the 5th or 6th reliably, and hope Neris doesn’t opt out because if he does, yes you may free up 8.5M but you are going to spend more than that replacing that high leverage spot. If the Astros get forced into returning Montero into high leverage instead of getting him to earn that promotion back to high leverage this BP is going to get messy.
That’s why my out of the box cap immediately turns to Hunter Brown if Neris opts out. It’s hard to argue with stats. Here are a few. He had a 4.66 ERA in first innings. Not ideal. But he had a 7.85 in third innings, when he is typically seeing hitters a second time. Batters hit .265 the first time they saw him, they are up to .290 by the third time (with a FAR above league average of .376 OBP). Pitches 1-25, hitters hit .233 on him. It goes up substantially after that.
To me, I am looking at his stats, and I am looking at my bullpen, and I am thinking a guy that can go out there and for 25 pitches can hit 99-100, and every time we have ever seen him pitch in relief it’s been very good to great. Is this the high leverage arm that resets everything back to 7th/8th innings involving him and Abreu and less Montero and Graveman, who can take mid-leverage innings or earlier ones?
It’s just a thought – I fully expect the Astros to not consider, mostly because you can’t really pull the plug on him as a starter yet. He has the stuff to develop into an ace, it’s going to be about headspace and confidence.
I don’t see any QO’s going out and paying guys above performance level. I expect a conversation with Maton and Brantley both, but salary limitations could be the end of any of our FA’s returning.
It’s hard to see any trades. We don’t have a lot to offer. We might need to find a backup catcher, I like Salazar, but if Yainer turns an ankle rounding 2nd, I don’t want Salazar catching everyday for 3 weeks. Again, that will move the needle closer to 237M. The Verdugo rumors are more likely about their trade deadline interest and fan speculation than they are the Astros actually getting creative enough to add that projected 9M salary to their payroll, and our internal options are not terrible. I don’t see the Astros adding that salary only to put him in LF and McCormick in CF instead of Dubon in CF and McCormick in LF simply over the side he bats from.
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Q3 – I feel like the WBC was bad for us. It’s hard to find all the reasons a team that was 85% intact from 2022 looked like a completely different pitching staff in 2023 when most of them are in their 20s. The pitch clock and rules in deliveries were probably as impactful on Framber, Javier and Garcia.
I think it was not only France and Brown that suffered from “more innings than any year in their life” syndrome. But they are the two most prominent. With Garcia out until after the break and the speculation that McCullers wont be pitching until mid May early June there isn’t any reprieve coming. They are going to have to make adjustments.
Framber has spent his whole life taking that circle walk around the mound after falling behind in the count or giving up a hit. Whole life. Now, 15 years later from his first real competitive pitch, he has to adjust, and he didn’t really. I also think his arm, like the rest, got tired. Tired arms aren’t always seen in just velocity, they can present themselves in spin rates and bite, and it makes it easier for the guys that are the best on the planet at making a pitcher’s life miserable. There were also moments where you just see him get too impatient on the mound and try to make one super pitch that he ends up leaving in a bad spot instead of just focusing on the situation. Hitters always preach about not trying to kill every pitch, but go with what a pitcher is willing to give you when they do come in, well, it works for pitchers too – don’t give in and try and to overthrow this pitch or throw it past someone, take what a hitter is willing to sacrifice in the at bat and work with that. Before the pitch clock, he had moments that he could slow down, walk around, think about the pitch that is working, find that patience, now, its rushed on him.
I mentioned Brad Hand at the deadline. I thought that was a leverage arm that throws from the left side that could have helped but I also mentioned because he is under contract for 2024 for a modest 5M. I don’t see an opportunity out there to add a lefty without it being a lefty for leftys sake at this point.
I wouldn’t expect Abreu to take his job. But I hope that they find a way to make sure Abreu sees 10-15 save opportunities this year and shows he can handle the 9th the way he does the 8th, and he gets that experience before we get to 2024 and the job is presumably his.
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Just curious. Could we make a future 1st baseman out of Yordan. Less chance of an injury and he’s get to play around 145 – 155 games. Singleton sure isn’t it and I don’t see any up and coming minor leaguer’s.
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Yordan has played some 1st at various levels. Obviously the job is Abreu’s for the next 2 years. It seems like the position is “safer” than LF, but I am sure somewhere there is some analytics that would tell us what position sees more injuries, 1B or LF. I am sure DH wins that argument anyway.
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Is it really possible that the season could end tonight and 2024 is here tomorrow?
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Let’s get at it 1oldpro!
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Welp, the Texas Rangers are world series champions. Congratulations (cough, cough) to them. I could not root for them due to how Garcia acted to the Astros. Sorry, not sorry.
At least the Commissioner’s Trophy stays in Texas for the second year in a row.
Now, let’s get a manager and tighten the Astros roster up.
Go Astros!!
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Congratulations Texas Rangers! Great Series!
The best part about winning it all in Pheonix? 1) Rob Manfred getting booed during the trophy ceremony. 2) No pictures of GW Bush!
Love it!
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https://babylonbee.com/news/god-rewards-only-team-that-doesnt-have-a-pride-night-with-world-series-win
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Looks like lockstep is still a problem
https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/astros_gm_dana_brown_contradicts_owner_on_timeline_for_manager_search/s1_13237_39474717
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I hate reading that stuff.
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https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
Last year, on the day after the WS ended, this was my favorite chart.
Today, it is Ranger’s fans favorite chart.
Alas, Ranger’s fans, 2024 is on!
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OK – I asked all those questions above – so I will answer what I can
Relative to Dana Brown….
What direction is he taking the team?
– I think he has to be taking this team younger where he can.
Does he re-sign any of the free agents coming loose at the end of the World Series?
– Unfortunately, the easiest to re-sign might be Maldy. Beyond that – I think Neris is going to want more than Montero money – Stanek came back to earth hard last season – maybe they could bet Maton back at something reasonable. When you look around it always seems like all teams are looking for bullpen help.
Does he tender a Qualifying Offer to anyone (the answer is no)?
– No
Does he trade anyone to try and get younger?
– I think he will try, but hard to pinpoint who, maybe Framber, but you wouldn’t be trading him at the top of his value
Is there anyone arb eligible that he does not tender an offer?
– These are mostly prime time folks – Framber, Tucker, Chas, Dubon, and Abreu are no doubters and they are not going to let starting pitching (Urquidy and the injured Garcia) out the door for nothing
Most importantly, he had indicated wanting to sign extensions with Framber Valdez, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker last Spring Training. Is he still interested, especially the way Framber collapsed in the second half of this season?
– I think he will definitely chase Tucker, kick the tires on Bregman and Altuve – but not sure about Framber. Maybe he sees this as a chance to pick him up at the lower end of his value.
Will he let the new manager bring in any new coaches?
– I would expect the new manager to have someone added to the staff – bench coach at least and possibly a pitching coach
How will he work with Jim Crane, the new manager, and the OG crew?
– This is to be seen…..
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I don’t disagree with getting younger, but you have to get better at the same time. What younger is better at this point? We are already going to have our catcher starting. Yainer, Chas, Pena, Tucker, Alvarez, this team is not old. It’s got old, but it’s not old. Same on the pitching, yea there is Verlander, but there is also Javier, Brown, Urquidy, hopefully a returning Garcia. This bullpen is going have Pressly but it features Abreu. There is youth all over. We don’t need more unless, like these guys, they are worth their salt.
I agree on Neris. I don’t think he expects to get the 3 years since he is two years older than Montero was but I think he is looking for the same AAV for 2, or 1 with a vesting option. He might be looking at this as strike while the iron is hot and get 2/24 or 1/12 with a vesting 1/10 or something. The Astros don’t have much space, especially since they have to pursue a catcher, maybe 2 catchers with one still having options, but I think they have to work it out with Neris. Montero just isn’t in a spot right now to handle high leverage 7th innings regularly. The Astros might be in a spot where they are forced to go with Montero in that spot or take a shot at a medium priced option that might not be any better.
What are your thoughts about Houston SportsMap guys suggesting Chapman? I hate it. But I might be playing that fiddle by myself since he is probably going to be going around 2/12.
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Aroldis Chapman? I am not feeling it, but I am going by emotion. Logic tells you he might give you solid late inning numbers without costing as much money and he is a lefty.
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Did you also notice that they mentioned Trevor Bauer? And Cody Bellinger? Interesting comments made about Bauer though.
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As nervous as I was watching Chapman pitch in the WS from my easy chair with no skin in the game, I can only imagine how Bruce Bochy was feeling. I’ve got a sneaking feeling Chapman will be available this winter.
Since I’ve adopted the Rangers (the ones WITHOUT the gay pride flags!) as my new team, I’d love to see Chapman in an Astros uni breaking his neck watching his pitches heading for the Crawford boxes next year. That’ll be fun!
Go ahead and take him!
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Other questions….
How much did the early participation in the World Baseball Classic affect their pitchers? Did this lead to the reported dead arm of Cristian Javier?
– Obviously we had the direct loss of Altuve but I really think the pitching especially was gassed in the second half
Were the poor second halves of Hunter Brown and J.P. France due to teams catching up with them during their extended exposure over the course of the season? Or were they worn out from pitching more innings than they had ever pitched before?
– My personal opinion is that Brown and France were out beyond their skis with their usage and it began affecting them. Also, folks got more and more film on them and their next step in development will be adjustments to the hitters’ adjustments.
Will they really have Lance McCullers back for the start of the season?
– Which season?
Will they have Luis Garcia back at all? If they get him back, can he stay healthy without using his rock-a-bye baby windup?
– I picture him coming back in mid-2024, but greatly fear the new windup may undo him
Can they help Framber Valdez find peace on the mound?
– Trade him to whichever team signs Maldy? Seriously, if they are not working with finding him therapy help / quick relaxation techniques / something… they need to be replaced
What are their plans to replace Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek and (likely) Hector Neris in the bullpen? Would any help come from the farm system?
– I like the idea that this could be Hunter Brown. I’ve often wanted to put Lance McCulllers in the bullpen, but maybe he is making too much money to make it worthwhile. I think it will be a combo of internal and an outside reliever or two
Might they finally add a left-handed arm to their arsenal?
– So, we can bring him in to pitch to left handers like Seager and watch the ball go over the fence? OK – it might be good to have at least one lefty out there
And are there any plans to move Bryan Abreu into Ryan Pressly’s closer’s spot? He outpitched Pressly for a big chunk of the season, but in the playoffs, Pressly was better.
– I agree with whoever said that they might give Abreu 10 or so shots mixed in with Pressly still being the closer
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Front office promotions
https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/astros-announce-baseball-operations-promotions
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A comment or two or whatever number happens:
* Lourdes Gurriel will not be eligible for a QO this year because of a clause in his contract.
That clause could be a santa clause for a club who steers clear of the penalties for QO guys. The Astros fit that description.
* It will be interesting to see how Joe Espada fits into the Astros plans for 2024 and beyond.
* Will Justin Dirden be able to work his way back into the Astros graces, now that Baker is out of the picture? Or is he now Dust in The Wind?
* The announcement of the promotions within the Astros system drowns out the tiny announcement last week of Sara Goodrum leaving. She did little for player development, in my opinion, which is based only in looking at minor league momentum or lack thereof. There is, as usual, no other info available to base any opinion off of.
* How did Arizona make it into the World Series?
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With the new expended playoff system, maybe getting that first round bye is overrated. If winning 85 or 90 gets a team into the post season, 100 or 105 wins might just unnecessarily wear a club down. It’s always been a crap shoot but a young enthusiastic Arizona team picked a great time to get hot.
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Interesting on Gurriel. I am betting he gets 17-18M a year, and probably out of the Astros price range. McCormick is probably a better hitter anyway.
Dirden doesn’t need a 40 man spot yet, so I am sure there is another year at AAA to sit on and see what happens. Not a fan of his BB/K ratios this year or any year tbh, and at .274 he has been good but not great at bat to ball – most of his 2022 success was at AA, he didn’t do well at AAA in 22 or 23.
Short series are funny things. Baseball should consider doing away with 3 game series. I’ve heard all kinds of suggestions. One was let the division winner that has to play in the first round start with a 1 game lead. One was push all first rounds out to 5. Purists (like me) don’t even like the 5 game series. But they proved that the better team doesn’t always win even 7 game series.
Baseball has to be concerned. In 2017 22 million people watched the Dodgers/Astros. This series between Texas and Arizona is at 9 million. On one hand, they love the excitement (and revenue) generated in places like Phoenix when the D-Backs are in the WC hunt, keeps up attendance in August/Sept. On the other hand, they are getting WS matchups between wild card teams that won 90 and 84 respectively from smaller markets that aren’t LA, Chicago, or New York. I do think they need to address the paths sort of speak.
In my mind, baseball is unique. The teams are so close in talent. A good team is only winning 55-60% of regular season games. A bad is still winning 35-40%. 100 wins still only win 62% of theirs. And in a 5 games series a great team can easily go down to just a good team like Arizona. It was my argument against college football going to a 12 team playoff format. If all you got to do if you are LSU is go 9-3 and pull off one big upset somewhere, who cares if you lose that regular season game to Bama? To me, if a football fans wants expanded playoffs, watch the NFL. In college football, every Saturday is a playoff game if you are trying to win the big one.
Baseball needs to get that back some. It’s so unique that the talent levels are that equal, it takes them all 162 to separate themselves. Reward those teams that win a division, don’t make them take the same path even if they are the “worst” division winner. Get all series that teams with the best records are involved in to 7 (in this format division series, though I would be looking at different formats). I don’t know that saves Baltimore, Atlanta, LA, but it makes it harder to beat them.
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Not to beat a dead horse (or something else), but I think Manfred’s handling of the sign stealing scandal really turned off a lot of casual fans. He worked so hard to avoid the league darlings getting burned, and yes, the Astros are hated coast to coast, but I know a lot of people who just aren’t watching anymore. Reading some other threads before the WS started there were a lot of people lobbing PED accusations at certain players who had great years. That may be mostly sour grapes with no basis in fact, but I do wonder if Manfred would find a way to avoid scandal at all costs right now or if he’d make sure the players that do get caught this offseason get the agreed upon penalty regardless of star power.
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I don’t want to beat a dead equine, either. But setting aside Rob Manfred’s actions or inactions and whether they’re good or bad, there’s another phenomena happening in America that may be contributing to the declining numbers despite the speeding up of the games, etc.
There’s an awful lot of folks who are seeing their discretionary budgets declining to the point where they have to cancel expensive cable sports subscription accounts in order to buy groceries, put gas in their car, and get school clothes for their kids.
If it doesn’t get better, there will come a day when a lot of season ticket holders will attend games disguised as empty seats. The sales volume of team swag and memorabilia will also suffer. Then we’ll see team owners really howl!
I know my heart will really pump for them…..
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I’m one of those semi old codgers on a fixed income that would no longer be able to pay for Astro season tickets. Younger family members have taken over coughing up the money for the seats we’ve had for almost 50 years now. So I get your point tof. But MLB regular season attendance was up 10% in 2023 over 2022. Huge jump. As far as the owners are concerned, Manfred gets a free pass for the time being. But those big market clubs that missed or got knocked out of the post season early are pissed. So are their fans. Some clubs will spend even more money. Some will simply complain. And I would not be surprised to see Manfred once again tweak those post season rules soon after the owners meetings.
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Steven, Roster Resource lists Dirden as Rule 5 eligible right now. I have been following this all season but double checked anyway.
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Thanks for the info. It seemed to me (I was doing head math) that he has just 3 years of professional experience and still had a year before that.
I wouldn’t expect them to make space, but they could. As much as we can become fans of our minor leaguers in our hearts – Dirden is 26, has proven inconsistent at best, can strike out a bit, and still hasn’t seen a game in the majors.
They have already reinstated McCullers and Garcia and that puts them at 38. It seems Browns recent comments is that there are no FA’s they are going to bring back, so they have basically 2 to 3 BP guys and a catcher to add. They could probably waive Singleton and re-sign to a minor league deal – and protect Dirden. If I were the Astros I would move Meyers or Julks for a low leverage BP arm – a guy for the 5th or 6th (think the Stanek replacement), Julks if I was given the choice.
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I need y’all to know that I read everything you write on a daily basis. I appreciate the very thoughtful comments you compile here – the best I’ve seen on a consistent basis anywhere. Thanks
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Dan – we know you do!
I am sure you have the next few mapped out – but I would love to see a “what would I do” vs. “what I think they will do” post. Or a breakdown where you do hot take conversation starters about each player on the 40 man! Maybe 2 or 3 per post. That could take the whole winter.
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Thanks for the suggestions, Steven – always looking for topics for the off-season. I’ll see what I can do here.
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My take on Jim Crane is that he does not want this club to become irrelevant at any point. I don’t think he’s prepared to accept any kind of a rebuild in the next few years. I don’t think he believes in the concept of closed windows. He got his three million fans in 2023. The club went deep into the playoffs once again. I’m sure he’s pleased Dusty Baker is gone. In the long run, he probably did the right thing by letting any 2023 managerial issues simply run their course.
But I really do think that as long as Crane is the owner, the goal with be to play in October every year.
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Saying the same thing with a different slant:
Luhnow brought the plan
Crane bought the plan and, together, they put it into action
The plan worked in a big way.
Beltran, Cora, Hinch and others screwed the plan.
Crane kept the plan and fired the clan.
The plan kept working and worked through 2023.
Now, you stick to the plan, which tells you what to do when you need holes to fill, who not to pay, who to pay and for how long.
Seven years in a row to the ALCS! Stay with the plan and hire those who will stick to it.
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Fire the clan and hire to keep the plan!
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It took courage to do what he did. The Grocer looked at things and tried to play it safe. Spend enough to win and keep turnstiles turning, but don’t spend enough to win the big one. To his credit though he did bring a lot of regular season success and a WS appearance – just couldn’t get over the hump.
Crane was willing to blow it all up and deal with poor attendance for years. That is courage. You know you are going to see revenue dip to all time franchise lows, and you know it will be hard to get it back, but take a chance on yourself. Believe in the plan. See it through and don’t try and quick fix it with Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks (doesn’t seem to be working, but it’s early).
The question, is he willing to go over the cap? If it’s the right deal, I think he is. I don’t think he will go over and stay over – so I would expect that first deal to take him over the cap he doesn’t make another until it’s one that is back below. So it’s a silver bullet. Lourdes Gurriel is a good player, but I don’t know if he is a good player over the cap silver bullet player. The ones that are that, are way out of bounds for us. I don’t think he will not because he isn’t willing, but because there isn’t an over the cap guy out there that would have made a difference this year.
The Astros seem so opposed to it that they are going to let 3 members of a successful bullpen walk away. If they won’t even nudge the cap to keep that bullpen together, I can’t see them making a splash move to jump over it.
The one thing about Crane – he is a fan. A baseball fan. An Astros fan. You can tell just listening to the guy, yes, this is a business, yes we will lose Verlander because we aren’t going to match crazy, but we are here to win first, business is (an important) second.
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It’s worth noting that the Padres reportedly took out a $50M loan to cover payroll and operating costs. The article I read reports on the original article which runs at a pay per view site relaying that they planned to offset some of those costs with a postseason run that never happened. Apparently they plan to drop around that same amount in payroll and be in the $200M range next year.
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I wholeheartedly agree with your line of thinking, Steven. Yes, there II much uncertainty and so many variables to contend with in this business, more than enough to make one risk averse. But given the fact this team is still WS ready, if I’m owner I’m willing to take some short term risk to knock on that door and hopefully win it again. The BP pieces lost, you know what you had with them. Can some of them be brought back without blowing up payroll? Why bring in cheaper reclamation projects or go dumpster diving knowing you’re making a WS run? Your coffers have not suffered loss these past few years. Reinvesting help strengthens/lengthens your revenue streams. It keeps the fans excited, hopeful filing through the turnstiles.
It’s easy for me to say, push that envelope. It’s not my money. If I can spend a few $$ buying tickets, I sure as hell won’t be mad if Crane opens the checkbook to strengthen his roster.
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Seems Dusty Baker is rather bitter. He’s still talking, this time with Charles Barkley about bloggers and tweeters convincing him that it was time to retire. I have nothing against our former manager, but I thank the bloggers and tweeters for their efforts.
On another note, it’s clear the Ranger-Astro rivalry is cemented at this point. It’s great for the game to have guaranteed full houses when the two teams play. I just don’t like the nastiness of it all. I personally think Martin Maldonado instigated some of the friction from his position behind home plate. He certainly got under Garcia’s thin skin. And I sure don’t like that guys like Yordan took way too many HBP’s during the season. There were different rules for the Astros. When Chas absorbed that 104 MPH fastball from Chapman at a meaningless point in game 7 it could have blown out a knee cap and finished his career. It was an obvious purpose pitch. The umps did nothing. Chas had already long since taken penance for his transgression earlier in the year at first base.
I don’t like guys getting hit by pitches. I hope these two teams can turn down the rhetoric and play good hard baseball against each other going forward, without all the errant pitches. As for the bloggers and tweeters fanning the flames, we’re stuck with them, for better or worse.
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I have been saying that something was off in the Astros clubhouse all season long.
Now the story starts to unfold.
The Barkley interview tells the tale.
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/dusty-baker-partially-blames-bloggers-and-tweeters-for-retirement-tired-of-the-scrutiny/
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https://www.khou.com/article/sports/baseball/rangers-cory-seager-astros-alex-bregman/285-62c95e46-4639-4850-b574-7f3d983a82e5
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Seager got his opportunity to retort. He used it.
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Hector Neris does the expected
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/hector-neris-declines-player-option-with-astros.html
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BwHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!! It does my heart good to learn that the blogging and tweeting really did get under the old fool’s thin skin! But I can only wish I could say I was 30 or even in my 30s.
Well, I could say it. But it would be a lie of a scale on par with “I did not have sex with that woman” or “My family has never made any money from China”…….
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I’d take Joe Espada before a lot of other guys that have been mentioned. For what it’s worth, Bob Nightingale suggests Dana Brown is pushing for our coach.
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Go Dana!
Several articles about Dusty and his thoughts on our bloggers and other outlets. While I think he did a good job for the 1st 3 years his managing this year left a little bit to be desired. As the old saying goes, “If you can’t stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen”. It almost seems like he’s very bitter, probably like the wines he’s selling. (Actually haven’t tasted any but at the prices I see, I doubt I will do so any time soon.)
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