In many ways, the results, the legacy of Dusty Baker’s four seasons in Houston, are greater than for any other manager in the Astros’ history, even A.J. Hinch.
Four seasons, four ALCS appearances, twice moving on, twice losing in a seventh game, two WS appearances, and one Championship.
Hinch came close as he had four playoff appearances, three times he made it to the ALCS, twice to the World Series, and, of course, the one tainted Championship. He does get bonus points for doing all this while taking over what had been an awful but improving team.
And yes, I am one of those who wanted Dusty to leave after the 2022 Championship and then again after the latest season ended, just short of a one-on-one battle to repeat.
But am I right? Do I know better than the guy who has made toothpick chewing an art and led the Astros through the darkness of the scandal and the pandemic to four years where they were at least one of the last four standing and of course an untainted Champion?
Those that are judging Dusty harshly have some facts on their side. The Astros played better, their pitchers pitched better, and they won more often when young Yainer Diaz was behind the plate. Chas McCormick was one of the best hitters anywhere against left-handed pitching and had strong overall numbers, but in limited appearances (for no discernible reason). In the ultimate seventh game match up in the ALCS, Dusty did not have anyone warming up or ready, while J.P. France loaded and unloaded the bases and helped put the game out of reach. He didn’t even send out a pitching coach to buy some time. And often he let Martin Maldonado stay in the game and allow him to attempt to hit at crucial times, including earlier in Game 7 before it got out of hand. It is also true that the Astros had very talented rosters for three of his four seasons – the pandemic season is the exception to everything. Couldn’t my brother and I have taken them a long way with our combined 100 seasons of watching baseball?
But is this enough to send a very good manager packing? Sure he is “retiring”…..from Houston, and do not be surprised if someone else grabs in the off-season. But he has gotten a lot of nudging towards the door this season.
It is bothersome that Dusty said his mind was made up by some negative columns late in the summer. Baker would not be so thin skin that he would quit solely because someone wrote something negative about him. It is much more likely he is quitting because the columns included negative comments from his own GM Dana Brown about his lineup decisions, especially relative to Maldy vs. Yainer. It is not the kind of thing that should be dueled out in the press and Dusty likely felt disrespected by it.
The part we don’t know, but can speculate on, is that Brown might have tried to do things the right way. He may have tried to talk to Baker about the simple metrics behind playing Yainer more than Maldy and was the one who was disrespected and told to “toddle back upstairs, Junior”. There is no proof of this, but after all the rumblings that Baker had the much nerdier James Click fired, it makes sense.
The bottom line is that the Astros have now lost the only managers to take them to Championships in their history four years apart and it is not clear who gets to pick the next one. Jim Crane will obviously be involved as will Dana Brown. But the rumblings about Old Guy Jeff Bagwell being involved gives one pause. Would this tip the decision towards one of Bags old teammates like Brad Ausmus?
There are already names being tossed around for this spot, ranging from Ausmus, bench coach Joe Espada, Don Kelly Pirates bench coach, Jeff Banister former Rangers manager (yuck), Donnie Ecker current Rangers bench coach (yuck), Troy Snitker Astros hitting coach, and even A.J. Hinch, Buck Showalter and many others. Perhaps it will be someone as unknown as Dana Brown, someone with one foot in the old (scouting is everything) and one foot in the new (metrics are important).
My sons and I were having fun, tossing out a more experienced option (Tony LaRussa), guys we hope have learned their lesson (A.J. Hinch, Carlos Beltran and Alex Cora) and a guy who deserves a second shot (Pete Rose). Though Pete really should be the A’s manager when they move to Las Vegas.
This is the part where we may regret what we asked for in wanting to move on from Dusty. What if they bring in someone who is not as good? Jeff Luhnow was part of the decision process to hire Bo Porter after all, before he got it right with Hinch. There are no guarantees in life.
Who would you like to see take over here or if not a specific name, what kind of manager do you want or do you not want leading the Astros in 2024?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
31 responses to “Be careful what you ask for: Dusty is dust”
During the season, I listened to 790 on Wednesday mornings from time to time. Dana Brown would guest weekly for a 15 minute segment. He never once threw his manager under the bus. Yes he spoke highly of Diaz and yes he called him our catcher of the future and hoped Yainer would see more playing time. If Dusty Baker made up his mind to leave town based on our local media, he sure did develop a thin skin over the season. Imagine Dusty managing in New York? Our manager was the most outspoken, defensive guy I can recollect holding the job in recent Houston memory. What was the quote about Houston thanking him when all was said and done?
I keep saying this. The manager I want is the manager Dana Brown wants. And the new manager and Dana Brown should then determine who will make up the coaching staff. Jim Crane hired Brown to do the job. Jim Crane needs to own his decision or unhire Dana Brown too.
And one more thing. The worst error for this club going forward would be to have Maldy here in 2024 in any role, back up catcher, coach, whatever. We already know he’s a terrible catcher. Then you’d still have the Framber dynamic. And maybe a Verlander and Javier dynamic. That’s already problematic. We have to move forward. We need a manager that will utilize the 26 man roster so that the best players are on the field, rather than those with mystic, uncharted talents.
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I genuinely like Dusty. It’s obvious most players, coaching staff, and front office people do to. I don’t know that Chas does, but it seems the rest do. Yainer Diaz spent most of this year at the tender age of 24. When I was 24 I was still doing some pretty dumb things. This guy has to know how much better he is than the guy in front of him. He knows 3/4ths of the Houston media was on his side. Even his GM was. Yet he still did not get in media and go after Baker, who probably cost him a ROY award. He just took the bat and went out there and went to war. I think his lack of playing time caused him to press when he did get it, and yes, he needs to figure out the outside slider, but most of the time if the pitcher made the mistake in the zone he didn’t waste it, unlike Maldy. But not a peep. All year. Mature kid. At 24 if I had a mic stuck in my face in September when I was barely playing trying to win an award for me (and future contract negotiations), I would have blasted the dude.
But this is about Dusty. We have to remember a big part of Chas lack of games was the 3-4 week period he missed, but there were also some head scratchers. Julks being OK (thats about the extent of that praise) early probably cut into some, the fact that Chas is only OK in CF while Meyers is above average cut into some, but it got even more curious when Chas started hitting at an all star level and Meyers was still stuck at .220. The moment he told JP France he is probably only a 6th starter and sent him to the BP (albeit for a short period) to start Urquidy was the moment JP started pitching at a 6+ ERA clip. When he left guys in for an inning more than we thought he should have, it was easy to second guess. No manager is going to be perfect in his decisions, and couch coaches are always going to stick to the moments he misses, but Baker seemed to miss a bit more than other guys. Winning still happens when you have talent regardless, but I think this team could have won 95-97 with better adjustments. But that’s just my thoughts.
Hey I hope he enjoys retirement. I hope he has keys to the building and that he can walk around the facilities and bring his magnetic personality to the park. I hope on opening day he gets a quick pre-pitch ceremony. I hope he continues enjoying Bolivar Peninsula (my old stomping grounds as a kid). But I am not disappointed that we will get to see another guy calling the shots, will he be better, who knows, but it’s a chance we will take.
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All of the talk misses the point.
The point is: this team lost at home and was good enough to dominate on the road.
When you can’t win at home there is something wrong with the team’s psyche, and that falls into the realm of the manager and his job.
Home field cost the team in the regular season and it cost the team in a huge way in the ALCS.
Who was responsible? Find out who was and then fix it!
If it isn’t fixed then it will continue to haunt this team.
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I have to ask this question OP – if the scandal had not happened – should we have removed AJ Hinch after the 2019 season when the team did the same thing in the World Series (losing 4 games at home?)
I know there is more to this as the team had trouble all year long at home this time, but just wondering.
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I still liked Hinch in 2019. At that point we did not know what Hinch had allowed to go on in his dugout. But to the best of my recollection, Hinch did not sit a player for an entire series so obviously more likely to impact a game in a positive way. He lost those 4 home games with his best offense on the field.
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Well, I can think of one factor. And it’s an easy fix. It should have been fixed by whomever was Dusty Bakers boss. Our best hitter at home on the season sat while we lost four home games to the Rangers. In the ALCS . That might have made a difference.
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Another list of possible candidates from McTaggart
https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/astros-2024-manager-candidates
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I still like Espada. He’s paid his dues and deserves a shot. Not impressed with with the others save for Eric Young Sr (we could use a new base running coach).
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I would not discount the value of the old school approach from someone who has actually played real baseball. I would also not discount the importance of a manager being able to connect with the new generation of players. You need look no further than the White Sox to see a failure of epic proportions on that front. I would point out the players on the roster are a bit more important for a manager’s success than we like to admit. Would Bo Porter have won a WS with one of the teams from 2017 to 2023? I think there is a strong chance he would have.
I hope my feelings that Diaz should have played far more innings are well documented at this point. I’m also of the opinion that Chas should have played more innings and that his CF defense was good enough that he shouldn’t have sat for that reason. I will also say he’s improved considerably from when he first came up and that only happens with playing time. You do have to fear that more playing time over exposes a guy and lets teams hone in on their weaknesses, but it certainly would have made sense to roll the dice and find out with Brantley missing the first 5 months of the season.
I’m not against their input, but I highly suspect Crane is going to take input from Bagwell and Verlander into consideration on the next managerial hire. As long as Brown still gets the manager he wants I’m fine with it. I think we’ve had enough front office butting heads with the coaching staff stories to last us.
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Devin, the old school approach failed us miserably.
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Did it? We managed to win the division despite losing two of our starting pitchers for the year, losing Altuve for 1/3 of the year, losing Brantley for 5 months, starting two rookies in the rotation, and weathering the loss of Abreu’s bat as well as some injuries to Yordan. What did we need to do better in the postseason to prevent losing to the Rangers in a game 7? I won’t argue that starting Diaz might have helped us win one more game.
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Devin, speaking of Dirden, did you know that he also led the club in homers at home?
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Devin, sorry, obviously I had been thinking about Dirden, but of course it was Diaz who led the club in homers at home!
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The day the WS ends, free agent qualifiers become free agents.
Five days after the end of the WS mutual/player/team options must be officially declared and free agency begins!
November 7-9 is GM meetings. The Astros have a GM currently.
November 15th- Rule 5 protection deadline and Qualifying Offer deadline.
November 17th is the non-tender deadline.
December 3-6 is the Winter meetings.
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Thus:
Maton, Maldonado, Brantley and Stanek will be free agents after the World Series.
Hector Neris and the Astros will find out whether Neris will exercise his player option or become a free agent within 5 days of the end of the WS.
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The Astros have 3 players who must be added back to the Active 40-man roster by the appropriate date from the 60-day IL. They are Lance McCullers, Jr., Luis Garcia and Oliver Ortega.
Ortega was clamed off waivers from the Twins two days ago.
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Prospects of note who are becoming Rule 5 eligible unless they are protected:
Kennedy Corona
Justin Dirden
Shay Whitcomb
Colin Barber
Zach Daniels
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Looking at this list, OP, let’s first look at who will be leaving the 40 man roster.
Neris absolutely gone
Stanek absolutely gone
Maldonado absolutely gone
Maton probably resigned
Brantley absolutely gone
Then those who will probably be released
Hensley
Singleton
That means six spots will open up on the 40 man roster. However, the roster will be short two pitchers and none of the Rule 5 eligible players are pitchers. So, who do I feel the club will protect?
Corona no
Dirden yes, a left handed hitting outfielder with some good pop and speed.
Whitcomb yes, a power hitting, rbi machine.
Barber no
Daniels no
Just my two cents.
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Sarge, I certainly like your “Maldonado absolutely gone” comment.
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I think they need to hold on to Barber for one more year. He’s not had a full season without injury. And anyone that hits 35 homers might get the benefit of the doubt, although most accounts on Whitcomb are that he’s not good defensively regardless of where he plays. Maybe he helps a trade get done. I was high on Dirden. His stats were hard to ignore. But man, he sure did hit the wall in AAA ball and he’s had a season plus to figure it out.
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I agree
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I can only wonder what this organization might look like today if the cheating had never happened. We’d of had a few more draft picks. Would Luhnow and Hinch still be guiding the ship? No guarantees, but we’d probably have had an even better record today than the remarkable stretch we’re still in.
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I did not dislike or disdain Baker as a person on manager. Did I question his decision making? Yes, I did. I felt his decision making was not conducive for the Astros in 2023. Right or wrong that was just my opinion. I sincerely wish him well in whatever endeavors he pursues, whether in retirement or managing another team.
With the search for a new manager advancing, I can only hope Crane will commit to adhering to the analytical model JL built and others continued in to make this tm so successful. It proved a resounding success that ultimately constructed a dynasty. And it did not break the bank in doing so. Why change that construct now?
I am not opposed to a numbers guy managing. A people person with an eye for talent and knowledge in how to utilize that talent to win.
Please allow Brown to do his job, the new manager his and on down the line. Yes, the owner has a say, but he should not put himself in position to wear all the hats.
If Cranes feels slighted by past transgressions, he should get over it. The fandom already had a glimpse of what happens when the gang that can’t shoot straight makes baseball decisions. Do not allow hubris to mismanage the good fortunes of this org.
I worked 33 years for an state agency that coddled it’s hierarchy through a good ole boy system. It was a failed system since its inception and does not work adequately to this day.
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The Astros have the best DH in the business and they have starters at all positions that range from good to excellent, except for LF. They have a solid super-utility player!
My take is that they need to find a capable left fielder for 1 or two seasons and not rush the guys who could provide years of service in our outfield until the turn of the decade but aren’t quite ready yet.
They need a backup catcher.
They may need a starting pitcher and they may not. I leave that call up to the GM.
This team is primed to be a WS contender in 2024.
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2023 Astros were wonderful!
I know, because I was around for this:
https://www.baseball-almanac.com/teamstats/roster.php?y=2013&t=HOA
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You and me both as I would think most of us on this blog. How soon we forget those days as maybe we should? Makes us thankful for the last 7. Hopefully a few more.
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I’m really impressed with what the Diamondbacks are doing. They are playing National League ball from a generation ago. They would have given our catcher and pitchers fits too. We’ll get better in that area next year. Yet I admit, watching Moreno play makes me think of what might have been here in Houston this year.
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https://www.mlb.com/prospects/astros/
Some comments on this list:
-The drop of Leon and Dirden to the middle of the pack hurts, but does reflect their lack of progress.
– Hoping Melton pushes his way to the majors by 2025. Really like his tools for the coming need in the outfield.
-Every time I checked the Sugarland box scores late in the year, if they won or had a close game it was usually Arrigetti’s name as the starter. Later, Colton Gordon’s name started to pop up as he got some AAA groove.
– Have some hope for Loperfido, Cole, Kouba, Wagner, Barber and Dombrowski.
– The younger fellas are too far out to get a picture.
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Thanks for keeping the discussion going – I was out of town this weekend for family “stuff”, so no chance to write anything – I’m getting stoked up to work on some off-season posts. May drop something smaller tonight to keep things going.
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Smolz is a dumbass and the other guy is just a big eared dweeb. Ugh…..
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The good new tof is that the guys in the booth can’t impact the outcome of the game. Turn your sound down.
But when an ump calls a very tight game all night, screwing pitchers out of some really well placed offerings, everyone pretty much knows the zone by the 9th inning.
Until ball a four to the leadoff guy, at least 4 inches of the plate is called strike three. It’s just a damn shame that an umpire can screw up a contest that the players should be allowed to decide.
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