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Astros 2023: The Fat Lady finished singing

This post took a couple days to take its final form. What kind of post should this be? Fire Dusty? Skewer Kyle Tucker? Send Martin Maldonado to the (relatively) old folks’ home? Send Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier to a new therapist? Send me to a new therapist?

Instead of a post mortem, this will be a look forward to 2024. There will be plenty of time for looking back, but today, my stomach just can’t take it.

Five reasons to be optimistic about 2024….

  1. Remember that the Astros went 19 seasons before reaching the playoffs. They went 43 seasons before winning a playoff series. They went 44 seasons before reaching a World Series and 56 seasons before winning one. Since 2017, the Astros made four World Series and won two of them, made seven ALCS in a row and went 14-5 in playoff series. They have the pedigree to continue this run.
  2. They also have most of the gang back. They are in line to possibly lose Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek, Michael Brantley and Martin Maldonado to free agency and/or retirement. None of these losses would be considered fatal and one of them (fill in the blank) might be addition by subtraction.
  3. They should have Yordan Alvarez for more than 114 games and Jose Altuve for much more than 90 games. They will have Justin Verlander for the whole season. They should (hands clasped in prayer) have Lance McCullers Jr. back in some capacity. And with some luck Luis Garcia will make it back before the end of 2024.
  4. Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Kyle Tucker have to be considered among the top five in the majors at their positions. Alex Bregman was second among MLB third basemen in runs scored and third in RBIs and is in the running for a Gold Glove. A full season, unrestrained at catcher for Yainer Diaz could certainly put him in the running for at least a top 10 spot at his position in the majors. Chas McCormick when allowed to play consistently put up good numbers in the outfield. Justin Verlander is still a pitching stud and certainly Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier have strong backgrounds that hopefully they can bring back to the top. Bryan Abreu and Hector Neris both were top notch relievers this season and Ryan Pressly rose to the top in the playoffs.
  5. There are intangibles in their favor. There will not be a World Baseball Classic to pull the majority of their top players away from a regular spring training ramp up or even to put them out of commission (Altuve) for the start of the season.  They do get a little more rest this off-season than last. And it is assumed that no matter what the players said publicly, there had to be some on the team doubting the decisions Dusty was making with the lineup in the regular season. Hopefully, that “problem” will be retired in the off-season.

Five reasons to be pessimistic about the 2024 season.

  1. Right now there is only one starting pitcher returning, who pitched well the second half of the season and he is turning 41 this off-season. Javier was over a 6 ERA from June thru August and failed in his Game 7 ALCS start. Framber had a 4.66 ERA after the All Star break and had a 9.00 ERA in three post season starts. Hunter Brown had a 6.57 ERA after the All Star break. J.P. France had a 5.80 ERA, the last two months of the season, and his ALCS meltdown was the last nail in the Astros’ 2023 coffin.
  2. Jose Altuve will be 34 early in 2024 and has been a bit more injury prone with age. Jose Abreu will start the season as a 38 year old. Alex Bregman will hit 30 before the season begins, but has been running like he turned 40 for a while now. Along with 41 year old Verlander, Pressly will turn 35, and Neris and Raphael Montero are already 34. The team is greying fast.
  3. Jeremy Pena may have gone through his sophomore slump in 2023 or maybe the league has figured out that if you just keep throwing down and away he will either make outs or hit singles off you.
  4. The positional players the Astros brought up from the minors did not exactly bring the team confidence in the prospect depth. Cesar Salazar (.111 BA/ .158 OBP/ .269 OPS), David Hensley (.119/.213/ .379), Jon Singleton (.194/.301/.624) and Grae Kessinger (.200/.289/.614) were at the worse – bad – at the best – so-so.
  5. The team with one of the weakest minor league systems in the majors traded away top prospects C Korey Lee, OF Drew Gilbert and OF Ryan Clifford for Kendall Graveman and Justin Verlander. The Lee-Graveman trade really looks like a bad choice at this point. It gives fans pause about whether the front office under Dana Brown (or whoever is in charge) is making decisions that will be to the team’s long-term favor.

Off-season concerns

There are quite a few items to be decided this off-season. Here are a few….

  • If Dusty Baker is dust, who will replace him? How much say does Dana Brown have on this decision? Jim Crane? Reggie and Jeff? And what kind of manager will they bring in – experienced or first time? Mr. Old School or Mr. Metrics or Mr. Hybrid? What direction are they headed?
  • Do you bring back any of the four Free Agents – Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek, Michael Brantley and Martin Maldonado? If you don’t are you back-filling from within or outside the organization? We know our answer for Maldy.
  • Is there any interest in trying to extend Framber Valdez or does he need to show that he is not a shrinking volet when he can’t wander around the mound doing meditation between pitches or when he pitches to someone other than Maldonado?
  • Forget the playoff performance of Tucker, remember that Altuve was 3 for 32 in the 2022 ALDS/ALCS and had 0 HRs and 0 RBIs in the whole of the 2022 playoffs. Is it time to extend the leading RBI man in the AL, who came so close to being a 30/30 performer in 2023?
  • What to do with potential extensions for Bregman and Altuve? They are free agents after the 2024 season. Do they try to extend them both? One? Neither? Do they dare do the unbelievable and trade one or the other (more likely Bregman) for some youth? 
  • Do they think Jose Abreu will bounce back, as he showed down the stretch and through the playoffs or do they try to get out from under the next two years of his contract?
  • How big is their budget and does it allow them to go get help, especially on the pitching side? Do they go after free agents or do they go with what they have left and backfill from the minors?
  • How do they handle their arbitration eligible players? Framber, Tucker, Chas McCormick, Bryan Abreu, Mauricio Dubon, Jose Urquidy, and Luis Garcia are all eligible for a raise in this difficult job for the front office. Do they low ball any of them (maybe the injured Garcia)? Do they try to negotiate contracts outside of the arb system? Do they insult Kyle Tucker yet again?
  • Do they make any trades? Who do they think has value that they think might be due for regression?

Answering these and many other questions will show what direction this team is headed, and very importantly, who is in charge.

My gut feeling is that the Astros have a good shot at a strong 2024, but after that the future looks a bit murky. Stand by.

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54 responses to “Astros 2023: The Fat Lady finished singing”

  1. I just read the very good MLBtraderumors article that OP referred to in the last post.

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/offseason-outlook-houston-astros-14.html

    A few things I would add into mine, that it reminded me of

    – I forgot that Neris can choose to become a free agent or choose to pick up his option. I’m guessing he will choose the FA route to get a multi- year contract
    – I should have mentioned Jose Urquidy’s 5.35 ERA in four second half starts as another worry point
    – I should have also said they likely need to chase a backup catcher – assuming Maldy is gone and Yainer is promoted

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    • Gary, it does seem weird to see the D’Backs, who the Astros swept the last weekend of the season when they were trying to make the playoffs, in the World Series against the Rangers, who the Astros annihilated in a series in September. (oh, by the way, both series were on the road).
      Of course, both the A’s and the Royals could be beating their chests if the Astros made the WS after taking critical series from us down the stretch (oh, by the way, both series were at Minute Maid).
      I am good with a season that ended one game from the WS, but will always wonder if there was just a few moves or choices that might have made a difference.

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    • Funny thing on the radio this morning, a big discussion because some of the talk show guys were supporting the Rangers in their run for a championship, while others were saying “What the Heck?”. I’m with you Sandy. Don’t like the Rangers since the Jeff Bannister days and still don’t.

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    • Sandra, so good to hear from you. You know, I don’t have a problem with the Rangers. They are four wins away from completing the job. They’ve got a batch of young players, some rather demonstrative. Our younger Astro teams had a touch of that going on some years ago. And while I’m not blaming Martin Maldonado for anything that transpired between the two teams, he was always close by to the action! But because I think Arizona is an underdog at this point, I’d like to see them win too.

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  4. Lot’s to talk about. And I’m going to start with Gabriel Moreno. I mentioned his name briefly yesterday. He’s 23. He’s caught 111 MLB regular season games and started 10 more post season contests. He put up an incredible 3.1 defensive war on the season. He’ll be hitting third and sitting behind the plate in game 1 of the World Series. His organization embraced his talent.

    I look to Baseball Savant Stat Cast for individual player rankings.

    Some defensive stats for Moreno in his first full season, ranked using percentile:

    Blocks above average, 94, 90
    CS above average, 100, 81
    Framing 34, 21
    Pop Time 86, 86

    I don’t know why MLB Trade Rumors still insists on considering Yainer Diaz a defensive question mark. The first set of numbers above belong to Moreno. At 23, with just 111 regular season games under his belt, he’s arguably the finest defensive catcher in MLB. But the second set of numbers belong to Yainer in just 42 starts. Except for framing, which has to be an acquired skill, helped by repetition, Diaz is already an excellent defensive catcher in his own right.

    And if you’d like to have a look at Baseball Savant, except for chase rate and BB/K ratio, Yainer Diaz already is one of the best hitting catchers in the game. And of course you already know that no Astro hit better than him in Minute Maid Park in 2023. So as far as I’m concerned, our biggest reason to be optimistic in 2024 was watching the season unfold right along with us. I’m sure glad Yainer Diaz does not belong to the Diamondbacks, but I do wish we had had their manager.

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  5. I’m going to go by position. I had my big rant about Framber last week. I still feel the same way. With two years left of team control, he’d be very valuable to a few teams. And yes, we’d probably be giving up 200 innings. But if Dana Brown is for real, we’d get a young arm, a guy with more composure, someone able to field his position. Someone to help Diaz keep teams from running like crazy on the Astros. Likely a work in progress, but with upside. Does Framber have upside? And we’d also get an MLB ready prospect. I look at Framber as part of our problem rather than a solution.

    But that means Dana also has to go out to the FA market and get an already established starter. A good one. Tough job, but that is his job now. I honestly don’t know how much we can afford to spend in 2024, but my Dana Brown expectations are high.

    Then we have Hunter Brown. He’s got upside. We’ve not seen the best of him.
    Javier. I don’t know. He was lost Monday night. But I saw glimpses of the good reptil all year long. Maybe he needs a new catcher. Verlander will provide innings. Urquidy will have a full spring to work with. Is Blanco working on another pitch as we speak? I’m not sure what JP France provides, but we ran the guy out of gas, I think both physically and emotionally.

    Our pen can and will be tweaked. Pressly is big when he has to be. Abreu could be a closer. I hope Hector comes back. We’re stuck with Montero, but he’s healthy. His mix might change and work. And Brown has got a come up with a couple of under the radar guys, maybe even from within the organization.

    Chances are Framber will still be around. I know I’m in the minority on this suggestion.

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  6. First base. Jose Abreu is not going anywhere. But he should be starting 120-130 games max. He had a June OPS of .821, July of .754 and September of .835. That’s what he needs to provide with a healthy back in 2024. The -0.1 WAR and .680 OPS on the season will have Dana Brown exploring options if it repeats itself.

    Second base. Our Hall of Famer. Jose should also get his extension done this winter. Let’s have some good news for season ticket renewals and get it out of the way for Christmas. But I also want Jose to spend a fair amount of time sharing the DH duties with Yordan. We’re better defensively when Frenchy spends some time over there.

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  7. It is a minor spot in a way – but Dubon made $1.4 MM last year and he is projected (by mlbtraderumors) to get $3.1 MM in arbitration. He is under team control through 2026.
    Should they let him ride out the arbitration the next three seasons or should they consider giving him a 2 yr $8MM or 3yr $13MM contract? If Pena collapses he might be our SS.

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  8. I would also like the team to take a hard look to see if our off-season physical programs and medical staff are up to snuff. We had the wonky oblique injuries for both Alvarez and Altuve. We had McCullers never recover from his injury. We had Brantley go forever recovering from his shoulder injury. We had two of our younger guys – Tucker and Pena seemingly crash and burn down the stretch.
    Is there something that should be changed?

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    • Absolutely Dan. If I recall correctly, I believe I read where the minor leagues had the issues as well. Perhaps it is a company wide thing.

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  9. In 2021, the Orioles (110), Rangers (102), Pirates (101), and Dbacks (110) all had triple digit losses. Trying to project the 2024 standings based on current rosters is tough, but even with the question marks this looks like another 90+ win team if Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker, Diaz, Bregman, and Verlander stay healthy. If I’m Dana Brown I’m picking up the phone the moment I’m allowed and trying to trade Framber to a team like the aforementioned Pirates, who lost 86 games this year but have some young talent and play in what is probably going to be the worst division. It’s a salary dump as much as an effort to help restock the system while finding him some new scenery. But maybe I’m wrong – maybe we should hold Maldonado accountable for his bad innings as much as he is getting credit for the good ones. Maybe Framber comes back next year and looks like the 2022 guy instead of the guy who wanted to strike everyone out.

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  11. Might we also need a new manager and crew of assistants at Sugarland in 2024? Everybody there seemed to have career lows ( except Singleton, who was only there a few weeks).

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  12. Shortstop. I don’t know what Jeremy Pena did to himself last winter, but I don’t think spending hours a day in the gym helped him at all. Physically, he did not look like a shortstop. he didn’t look like a baseball player. Dan, maybe the medical/conditioning staff is not involved enough in the off season.

    I’m not giving up on him yet though. He did improve his OBP from .289 to .324. What if he gets it to .350 in 2024? He had 32 doubles compared to 20 the previous year. He just did not hit the homers. Was he so muscled up that he could not get around on the ball? And why go from an 85% base stealing rate to a 59% after the rules changes? Speed is not the issue. Lack of preparation? Focus? I think he can learn to be a better base stealer.

    And for those that might be otherwise inclined, he had a much better year than Carlos Correa.

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    • The first thing that happened to Pena was the loss in the WBC.
      Then it was the loss of most of his spring training.
      Then it was the loss of his first baseman.
      Then it was the loss of his friend and double play partner.
      Then the loss of Verlander. And Garcia. and LMJ. And Urquidy. And Alvarez.
      Pena had one hell of a time this season

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      • 1oldpro, I think we’re in agreement that we’ll see more from Pena going forward. And on a team with payroll challenges, Jeremy is also one of our best bargains.

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  13. Remember that Tucker had a long season last year.
    A shorter post season.
    The WBC and a messed up spring training.
    Few days off in the season.
    All star game.
    Not a regular partner in CF.
    Tucker was worn out by September and looked like it in the playoffs, where he was facing a lefty almost every at bat.

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  15. Since Dusty is dust apparently, we may be headed for more disconcerting results if what FanGraphs says is true. According to FG, Brian McTaggart supposedly confirmed Bagwell will be responsible for finding the Astros next manager. Has anybody read this? I read another article describing Crane as Jerry Jones 2.0. Some cited Cranes mistrust of the front office since JL departure. But none of them agreed with the idea that Crane and his advisory cronies should be running baseball operations, making baseball decisions according to their dictates. I agree.
    And where does this leave D. Brown? It was said Brown is more a traditional GM. What the hell does that mean? No offense Cowboys fans, but J. Jones soured me on that org because of his insistent meddling. And what success have that org had since J. Johnson was kicked out? Regardless of what he may have done, JL mode of operations was successful and sustainable over the years to this day. If Brown has to endure Crane making operation decisions, R. Jackson’s sage advice and Bagwell telling him to look at the back of a players baseball card, I’m out.
    I hope Ive gotten ahead of myself and none of this is true.

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    • Yes, Brain McTaggart did post that comment in his “Astro Beat Newsletter” just today. Certainly not encouraging. But rather than being mystified, I’d rather wait until this all plays out. Hopefully Dana Brown’s choice(s) will be seriously considered. If they are not, then Brown might as well quit if he wants a job where he controls his own destiny.

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  17. Various outlets are reporting he has announced his retirement.
    Before I give in to rumors, I will trust my gut that has told me all year that there were problems in that clubhouse and that a lot of it was Baker’s ego.
    You see the guy by himself down on the end of the dugout, listening to the advice of no one.
    I sincerely believe a lot of Astros players and coaches will be complimenting him publicly, while inwardly being relieved.

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  18. I don’t know about Maton, but Stanek may return. Can Brantley return as a player/hitting coach at a reduced salary? Unless Maldy wants to return as a coach to our C, I would say thank you for your service. To allow him back as a part time C would only invite dissension from the P staff who desire his service, an unnecessary distraction that hinders Diaz’s growth with the staff.

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  20. Some unconnected thoughts:
    -Abreu hurt his back and was a better fielder and hitter after he took 15 days on IL to heal.
    -The Astros did not add any prospects to the roster on September 1st. What does that mean for the rule 5 draft status of a few prospects?
    -I think Ryan Pressly was a top notch closer this year.
    -According to Fangraphs, Alex Bregman was tied for fourth in WAR for third baseman in all of MLB. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2023-01-01&enddate=2023-12-31
    -I think Chas McCormick is going to have a good year in 2024.
    -Frenchy is considerably better than Aledmys was in Houston. Healthier, too.
    -Please give Dana Brown a chance to do the job you hired him to do.
    -All the hoopla about hiring the first woman MLB GM three years ago and then they treat her like dirt. Miami Marlins are the same old classless organization they have been for the last decade.
    Dinner bell!

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  21. -2024 will be the year Valdez proves he is worth extending. Until then I would not.
    -KT will be offered an extension, but the club will bulk if he demands superstar $$$ (excess of $200,000,000).
    -Tuv is not going anywhere I believe. Bregman is either traded or brought back on a discount.
    -Abreu’s 2nd half resurgence will earn him a spot in 2024. Don’t know if he can handle 140+ games at his age.

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  22. Crane will not spend on any long term or expensive free agent contracts apart from what they do internally. The splurges of last season proved more an albatross than effectual. Dan outlined 2024 as a possible last run with a few additions perhaps, that things might murkier thereafter. With the right pieces we will have the opportunity to complete unfinished business in 2024. What those pieces might look like is another conversation.

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  23. Third base. How would we replace 25 homers, 98 RBI’s, the on base ability and the defense Bregman provides? I don’t know. I also don’t know how he posts those numbers. He still has excellent range at third. But arm strength at 26th percentile? Sprint speed 25%. Exit velocity 36%. Barrel % 21%. Hard hit 33%. Is he getting ready to fall off a cliff, or is he just unique? I don’t think they give him 5 years, although it might be up to Bagwell! For me, I’m happy that he’s on the roster in 2024, but I’m not sure if the economics work going forward.

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  24. Zach Dezenzo is a possibility. Then there is Shay Whitcomb, 35 HR and 102 RBI this past season. Needs to cutdown on the Ks though.

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    • If they are interested in Shay Whitcomb, they had better protect him on the 40 man roster. 29 other teams are not gonna pass on an infielder with that power.

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  25. I’m anxious to see what Zach does in 2024. He could make the Bregman decision easier. But he’ll never be the defensive third baseman Bregman has been.

    How did Whitcomb hit 35 dingers and end up with a .771 OPS? He could bring value though. He’s in my trade along with Framber.

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  26. Leftfield. Chas is my left fielder in 2024. He needs a defined role. He deserves a defined role finally. He just does not have the arm for center. And we really don’t want Yordan running around out there too often, even if he wants to. I also noticed that Chas seemed gassed in September. His numbers were down. So play him 120 games in left. And use him in occasionally elsewhere in the outfield. And get him off the banana pudding. He’s one guy that could spend a bit more time in the gym. Chas really put some numbers up. 70 RBI’s in a 115 starts. He got aggressive. But he also did regress a bit in the BB/K department. He should work on that.

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  27. Centerfield. I don’t know. I just don’t know. I don’t want it to be the revolving door of seasons past. Frenchy, Jake, Chas, none are the full time answer. It’s no real secret who I think I want. But Loperfido needs more time in AAA ball. If he can beat that league, then he’ll get a shot. I’m not the expert in charge but I hope a more stable solution comes together. Kyle Tucker does not like going into the right center gap as things stand now.

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  28. Right field. I needed an easy one. And move Tucker up from 5th in the batting order. Heck, I’d have him at 2,3 or 4 and leave him alone. There is no other guy that I’d consider a more important signing, although it would be a huge shock if Altuve did not play his entire career in Houston.

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  29. Thats a lot Dan. Starting the offseason grandiose.

    The run will continue. They will be right there again next year. Probably another year after that. 2026 is when we will figure out who Dana Brown is.

    Maton is the most likely resign. He knows who he is, the Astros need him to fill that role, its been a good marriage. No one is asking the 8th from him routinely, he doesn’t seem the type that wants the 8th routinely, so just get it done. Stanek probably is looking to be a routine 7th/8th high leverage guy, and get paid that way, and the Astros have not seen him that way. My guess, he is gone. Brantley – VERY tough. I suspect he is going to want to play another year. I suspect the Astros aren’t in the market for fool me once shame on you fool me twice at 12M. The reason I say tough – I know if he gets on the field, plays part time, is healthy, he contributes as a lefty bat against right handed pitching that can move around the order, make contact, have a little power. But what are his expectations? Is he willing to say, yea, guarantee me 2M downside and if give me climbers at 300 PAs, 400 PAs, etc. Why would he if say, a team like the Mets come in and just give him 6M straight up? He might also retire. I don’t see a world where Maldy is back unless JV calls Crane and insists on it.

    Injuries are going to happen every year. You may get those guys for 150 games and lose Bregman or Tucker for 50 games next year. It’s about planning depth. Dubon’s emergence really helps with that because he can become an everyday guy at 6 different positions.

    If you take the muzzle off of Diaz I think he will be the best catcher in the majors offensively and among the top 10 defensively. I love Chas as much as everyone else. His numbers stretched out over 150 games look like an allstar. But sometimes guys don’t always perform that way when they do start playing everyday. He might though, definitely one argument for not bringing back Brantley is to stop impeding Chas and play him 155 games next year.

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    • I don’t think Brantley has got it in him. He went 2 for 20 against the Rangers. He was not the only guy that could not get the job done, but he looked slow. He looked done. Time to move on. And I suspect he’ll retire. He’s one guy I’d like to see stay in the organization.

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      • I don’t know I don’t feel the same. The guy I watched hit .278 in September, and his at bats looked fine to me, even in the playoffs. He didn’t get the results he wanted. Neither did half the team.

        That said, I agree that a contract for Brantley has a lot of things working against it. One, obviously there is the feeling from a lot of us as fans that we kind of got got. Could be shared by Crane. Two, we have OF options and we have DH options. Third, we want this team to get younger and more athletic, I am sure Brown does too. I don’t think he will be back. But I won’t be surprised if he is. I also would lean towards retirement if you asked me to put money on it.

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      • Look at this way. We have guys on our roster that sometimes have more than 2 K’s in a game. He struck out 2 times in 57 PAs over 15 games. To me, that is not a guy slowing down. That is guy that when he is in that batters box the bat still does what he wants it to do. The question is, can he actually be in the batters box? The answer appears to be no.

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      • Younger and more athletic. That should be a mantra. Guys like Loperfido and Wagner might get the benefit of the doubt when help is needed from below. I really want to see them both have an excellent ST.

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  30. Your pessimistic section –

    Pitching is always the key to the season. We dropped 16 games between last year and this year. That is mostly on Valdez, Javier, and the walking wounded. Brown was having an OK season until the rails fell off. Even in games where he was dominant in the 1st or 2nd he would get ambushed in the 3rd. I can write dissertations about each one, what the empirical data suggests should happen or each one should be used, but pitching is such a human game.

    Hitting is much more instinctual – you can tell the guys who have an instinct for hitting by their peripheral stats. Pitching is a lot of times confidence and headspace. If a pitcher feels like he can put that exact pitch in that exact location the mechanics of it become more natural. When they feel like they are struggling, they start mechanically struggling on release point, consistent arm angle, where the foot lands, where the toe points, keeping the motion synced, and the smallest deviation can move a pitch from the edge to a hot zone over the plate. A manager focuses on that human side of the game with his pitching staff. He reads body language, facial expressions, he tries to solve the puzzle of these players. Hitting has a lot of the similar issues mechanically, but hitting is more like your bowling ball form, it’s easier to recognize where it’s going wrong in film and easier to correct. Pitching is your golf swing. The errors can be so minute that you can’t find it easily. I don’t think people always understand the minutia of pitching, how that wear and tear of the 160th inning acts on your spin rate because you think your arm is doing what it has done for 159 innings before but its not, and while that 95 MPH FB is still going 95, the spin is down just a smidgen, the break is later or not as much, and the ball gets just a little easier for guys whose job in life is to wreck you, and they wreck you. That is where we are with Framber and Hunter both. Personally, pitching is so important to me that my manager search would be for a guy that handles pitching staffs well.

    As many old guys we have – we have a young rotation with Javier, Brown, Garcia, and while not young, France, Valdez, Urquidy are all still fairly young or at least in prime years. We have Diaz, McCormick, Tucker, Alvarez, (though I am not high on him) Pena, plenty of youth.

    Pena is fine if you just accept him for what he is. It got in his head in September and October, he performed well this time last year, gained lots of fans for it, and put that same pressure on himself this year. And it showed. But if he just relaxes, and works at it, and doesn’t get down when he isn’t succeeding – he can be a .240-.250 guy with 15-20 dingers and a league average OBP – and that is fine if he is a GG candidate and is in team control. Now the day he walks into a contract negotiation he will probably price himself out, but that is years away. I get it Dave – he was better than Correa, but no one actually thinks this season means he is better than Correa, what he is though, is cheaper and allows that money to move around. I think Correa is way more physically limited than he wants you to know at this point anyway.

    The Graveman trade is only bad if Lee makes it bad. I don’t think he will. We used to throw the term AAAA around a lot on this site, well, he is AAAA.

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  31. My take on playing next year (# of games) for non pitchers
    Diaz 150-155 (catcher, 1st base, DH)
    Abreu 140 (needs a break now and then)
    Altuve 155 (2nd and DH)
    Bregman 150-155 (I think he plays too many)
    Pena 150 (he needs a break too)
    Tucker 150-155 (Same here, I think he was burned out by layoff time)
    Chaz 145-150 (LF and some CF)
    Dubon 145-150 (he can be our super sub giving guys a break and plays a bunch of positions. Contact hitter too)
    Yordan 145-150 (DH and LF don’t wear this guy out or risk injury)

    Don’t know what the farm system will create but I’d look to find some future starting or exceptional role players. I sometimes think that in the latter innings (7-9) if the score permits we let some of these subs play more. Bregman’s in there whether we’re up by 10 or down by 10. That ain’t smart. Of course a lot of this depends on if there are any additions/subtractions to the roster. I assume that Brantley, Maldy will be gone but we won’t know for sure until it happens, especially Maldy.

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  32. And finally –

    Baker – I don’t think he wants to be in the circus anymore. His GM doesn’t say the things he wants him to say. The Houston media has been tough on him. Heck, the comments section of a facebook post by ESPN Houston makes him sound like the anti-christ. He is probably ready. Who the next manager is tells us who is in charge. If it’s Walt Weiss, its Brown. If its an old hat like Showalter, its Bagwell and Jackson.

    I bring back Maton. There is a world and a contract configuration I would bring back Brantley, but it’s not likely to go there.

    I wouldn’t address Valdez until the end of the next season.

    Yes, you extend Tucker. I believe Brown is trying. It was asked in the chat I was in MLB trade rumors yesterday and the writer brought up Matt Olson’s deal and suggested something just beyond it, like 9/215, would get it done. If that is the deal, I sign that tomorrow.

    I try and extend both. I try to keep them as short as possible, especially Bregman. Alex still has the golden eye, but there is something about barrel to ball that is causing a lot of pop ups and ground outs, and they are routine ones, a lot. Obviously he still gets good swings in though, he still gets on base a lot, he still plays good defense. Try is the optimal word, because I have no idea what numbers the Astros are getting back from agents.

    I get the “Abreu was better in the second half.” He still hit .237 in September. He actually had his best months average wise BEFORE his trip to the DL. Do I expect a “bounce back” in a way that the 37 year old is going to look like the 31 year old version? Of course not. You can tell he is behind everything. The best seats these days if you want a shot at a souvenir is behind the 1st base dug out because he fills it up. Does that mean he can’t punish a bad pitch? Of course not. He is still Jose Abreu. He just isn’t going to make lemonade anymore with good pitches that often. But there are 19.5M reasons to play him for the next 2 years regardless. I would cut his PT some, give him some “off days” on guys that throw 98-99 and have a high percentage usage of said fastball, but he is the first baseman.

    The same chat mentioned that after arbitrations they should be in the 190 range, well under the cap. I wouldn’t go get pitching. You have the pitching. You will just make a crowded room more crowded. Presumably they open with Verlander/Valdez/Javier/LMJ/Brown with Urquidy and France around. It’s still early. There is a world where if the deal is right I would consider trading Brown and a minor leaguer to St. Louis for Donovan, but I don’t know if St Louis is game for that. Given Brown’s splits, he would make one of the very best 1 inning relievers in baseball, but its probably too early to give up on his prospects of becoming a solid starter.

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  34. I’m enjoying everyone’s opinions here. We do not all agree on a bunch of our issues. Sure makes things interesting. Dan, please bring this post back before the season starts so that we can compare notes on what actually ends up taking place this winter.

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  35. I vote we assign at least 3 metrics guys, a pitching coach, and Yainer Diaz, to study every Ranger at bat in the upcoming WS in detail to help prepare our pitchers with a strategy to get each of their hitters out when we face them next year. We need to know those guys’ strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies as well if not better than we know which of our hitters their bloodthirsty pitching staff can be expected to attempt to behead with 104 mph fastballs under what circumstances.

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    • Some will say ‘Maldy has already done the work on that!’ I would reply: “then why are they going to the WS while we are focusing on next year?’

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      • I think we already have the information we need and our regular season performance largely backs that up. I just typed a few paragraphs explaining why we lost the series, but it’s too stupid and traumatic. Instead let me summarize it as this: our pitching was very good except for a few innings by Framber, one inning by Abreu, one inning by Montero, two pitches by Stanek, and an inning by Javier. The pitches that got hit hard were mostly sliders elevated and over the plate and one awful split finger. If the pitches were located where they were supposed to go we probably win the series in 5 games…and that’s only because our offense put up a goose egg in game 1.

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      • I’m leery of a Maldy return in 2024. And I don’t think Yainer needs him hanging around.

        Does anyone ever recollect Maldy and Yainer sitting next to each other in the dugout chatting?

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