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Astros – Rangers ALCS Playoff Preview

The Astros and Rangers will meet in what seemed like an unlikely ALCS pairing only a week and a half ago. Both teams barely squeezed into the playoffs, and the Rangers’ weekend collapse against the Mariners meant that they not only lost the AL West but would have to go on the road against the two winningest teams in the AL this season, the Tampa Bay Rays and the Baltimore Orioles, to earn a spot in the ALCS. The Astros would only need to win a best out of five ALDS, but as wobbly as they played in September, that was not a sure thing to occur.

But here they are, and a couple things come to mind with this matchup.

First, these teams have never met in the playoffs. From 1972, when the Washington Senators moved to Arlington to become the Texas Rangers, until the 2013 season, when the Astros moved to the American League, the only way they could meet in the playoffs was in the World Series. The Astros had only one appearance in the World Series, losing to the White Sox in the 2005 sweep. The Rangers had two bites of the apple, losing 4-1 to the Giants in 2010 and then in a seven-game heartbreaker (OK- not my heart) to the Cards in 2011.  Since the Astros joined the AL, they have only been in the playoffs at the same time in 2015, when both teams lost in the ALDS…..until now.

Second, the two teams really don’t have a regular season history that stretches back that far. MLB started up interleague play in 1997, but for some reason, the two Texas teams did not meet until 2001. Since then, the Rangers have a slight 134-132 edge in wins. The Astros have won the “Silver Boot” 10 times, the Rangers nine times, and they have split their season series 4 times. The Astros have had the upper hand six of the last seven seasons with a 5-5 split in the 2020 pandemic season.

Enough for history, ancient and otherwise, what does the matchup this season look like?

Team Rangers Astros
2023 Record 90-72 90-72
Result Wild Card AL West Champs
2023 Head to Head 4-9 9-4
Playoff History Head to Head N/A N/A
2023 Offense 5.44 Runs/Gm   1st in AL 5.10 Runs / Gm 3rd in AL
2023 Starters 3.96 ERA    5th in AL 4.17  8th in AL
2023 Relievers 4.77 ERA  11th in AL 3.56 ERA 4th in AL

Health

  • As stated before, the Astros, except for Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers, who are out for the season, they are the healthiest they have been all season. Yordan Alvarez, who had missed some time looked awesome in the ALDS and Michael Brantley, who has also been questionable health-wise, had a huge HR in the Game 4 clincher.
  • The Rangers, like the Astros, have had a number of health problems along the way this year and have had long-term losses. SPs Jake Odorizzi (smaller loss) and Jacob deGrom (much bigger loss) are out for the season as are reliever Ian Kennedy (addition by subtraction) and Utility man Brad Miller (small loss). Of more interest are the statuses of starting pitchers Jon Gray and Max Scherzer. They missed both the Wild Card and ALDS rounds but could both be back for the ALCS.

Position Players

  • The Rangers are like a version of the Astros’ 2017 offense, leading the AL in runs/game (5.44), BA (.263), OBP (.337), OPS (.790) and HR (233).
  • Unlike the Twins, who topped out with 66 RBIs in their lineup, the Rangers are scary. SS Corey Seager (.327 BA/.390 OBP/1.013 OPS with 33 HRS and 96 RBIs) would be the MVP except for you know whotani.
  • 2B Marcus Semien (29 HR/ 100 RBIs), RF Adolis Garcia (39 HRs/ 107 RBIs), C Jonah Heim (18 HR/ 95 RBIs) and 1B Nathanial Lowe (17 HR/ 82 RBIs) are all big run producers and are supplemented with rookie 3B Josh Jung (23 HR/ 70 RBIs) and CF Leody Taveras (14 HR/ 67 RBIs).
  • The Astros, while trailing the Rangers in run production for the season, have been a much more proficient offense in August and September, which un-ironically lines up with having a healthy Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez in the lineup.
  • The Astros rode the big bats of Jose Abreu and Yordan Alvarez, who had 7 of their 10 HRs and 14 of their 20 RBIs in the ALDS. They will need some warmup of Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman to take on the Rangers’ juggernaut.
  • Edge – Rangers

Starting Pitching

  • The Rangers had the better starting pitching for the season as shown above. Now this did not show true when the teams last faced in early September and the Rangers’ starters gave up 14 runs in only nine innings as the Astros crushed them and set the table for catching them in the last weekend of the season.
  • It can be easily argued that the Rangers’ two best starters were not with the team until the trade deadline when they picked up Max Scherzer (4-2, 3.20 ERA) from the Mets and Jordan Montgomery (4-2, 2.79 ERA) from the Cards. Scherzer has not pitched since Sept. 12th with a right teres major strain (my left teres always is my weak one – wherever that is). He also helped the Washington Nationals knock out the Astros in the 2019 WS. He claims he is ready to pitch, but the Rangers aren’t tipping their hand yet.
  • Other options include Nathan Eovaldi ( 12-5, 3.63 ERA), Andrew Heaney (10-6, 4.15 ERA), Dane Dunning (12-7, 3.70 ERA) and Jon Gray (9-8, 4.12 ERA), if Gray is healthy and activated.
  • The Astros can match up well and exceed the Rangers with the continued strong performance of Justin Verlander, Cristian Javier and (surprise, surprise) Jose Urquidy. The key is whether Framber Valdez can give them a strong start or two.
  • Edge – Astros

Bullpen

  • The Astros have the superior bullpen with more than a one run edge in ERA.  
  • The Astros bullpen performance in the ALDS, except for one giant hiccup by Hector Neris was reminiscent of their run through the 2022 playoffs. Bryan Abreu, Ryan Pressly, Phil Maton and Rafael Montero all put up goose eggs for the Astros.  
  • Is former Astro, Will Smith (2-7, 22 saves, 4.40 ERA) the closer or is Jose LeClerc (0-2, 4 saves, 2.68 ERA) who had the only save in the ALDS? The Rangers depend on mid-season pick-up Aroldis Chapman (2-3, 4 saves, 3.72 ERA), Brock Burke (5-3, 4.37 ERA), Josh Sborz (6-7, 5.50 ERA) and Cody Bradford (4-3, 5.30 ERA) for most of their bullpen innings.
  • The Astros put their trust in Ryan Pressly (4-5, 3.58 ERA, 31 Saves), Bryan Abreu (3-2, 1.75 ERA, 5 Saves), Hector Neris (6-3, 1.71 ERA), Phil Maton (4-3, 3.00 ERA), Ryne Stanek (3-1, 4.09 ERA), Kendall Graveman (2-2, 2.42 ERA) and Ryne Stanek (3-1, 4-09 ERA)
  • Hunter Brown came out of the bullpen twice in the ALDS with his power arm and could be a muti-inning bridge if needed.
  • This would seem to be an area that leans heavily the Astros’ way – Edge – Astros

Managers

  • Dusty Baker (7th with 2183 wins) and Bruce Bochy (10th with 2092 wins) have the most wins among active managers.
  • Baker is the only manager to go to the playoffs with 5 different teams, making the playoffs in 13 of his 26 seasons, winning one World Series and losing two others.
  • Bochy has taken three different teams to the playoffs and has made the playoffs in 9 of his 26 seasons. He has been to four World Series and won three of them, all of them with the Giants.
  • Edge – Push – Folks, including this writer have complaints about Dusty Baker, but he has won more games than Bochy in the same amount of seasons, has been to more playoffs and certainly has been very successful in the postseason. They are both top notch managers, who manage better when they have better players.

Does it matter that the Astros dominated the Rangers 9-4 this season? Maybe, maybe not. Does it matter that the Astros are 79-39 against the Rangers since 2017? Perhaps, but not certain . What about the Astros annihilating the Rangers 39-10 in three games in September? Maybe a little.

But in the end, the Astros need to play these games like they have no preconceptions about who is better before the series.

Prediction – My son, Thomas, pointed out that if this series goes to 6 games, the two teams will have faced each other 19 times like they did in the regular season from 2013 to 2022 (except of course for 2020). So…….Astros in 6 Games.

 

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71 responses to “Astros – Rangers ALCS Playoff Preview”

  1. Don’t forget Carter in left. The 20 year old has been a nightmare. I hope our experts have a plan for him. If Scherzer and Gray can help in any way, if only in the pen, that’s a real bonus for the Rangers too.

    Our starting pitching is more solid than the Rangers if Framber Valdez steps up. If he does not, we lose that edge.

    If our pitchers can neutralize their hitters to a degree, as they did with the Twins, that sure helps, but the Rangers hitters will not give us strike outs as easily.

    We can’t let the Rangers steal bases indiscriminately. If we match the Rangers offensively and play clean baseball, our pen should be the difference maker in a seven game series.

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  2. If our hitters don’t score many runs against the Rangers starters, they need to at least take good approaches, work counts and get to their bullpen.

    If our pitchers can slow down the Rangers bats, the media will continue to praise Maldy. If we win, I won’t complain about that.

    If we need a multi-inning bridge pitcher, I think I would rather use France instead of Brown.

    If we do win in 6 games, that would even up the overall record to 136 – 136.

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  3. Some other interesting facts about this matchup

    – The Rangers were 2-8 in extra inning games / the Astros 1-8, though it should be pointed out that the extra inning game rules with the runner at 2nd go away in the post-season
    – The Rangers were a very poor 14-22 in one run games – the Astros a so-so 20-21 – I imagine the extra inning games factored into both numbers
    – The Rangers were 37-23 in blowouts – games decided by 5+ runs – the Astros were 28-15

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    • “….the extra inning game rules with the runner at 2nd go away in the post-season.”

      I wasn’t aware of that. This is good. I hate that rule more than the other changes.

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  4. A lot of the games between these two were not close. There were a lot of not-so-close scores between the two.
    The 9-4 advantage in wins by the Astros tells me something.
    The old saying about the playoffs being another story whispers to me.
    How about the Astros “knowing how to win”?
    What makes the difference to me in predicting who wins this series is how the 2023 Astros took care of business against good teams late in the season. The way they played in Arlington, Seattle, Arizona and Minnesota, where those games all seemed like playoff games, leads me to go with the Astros in six games.

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  5. I feel kind of bad for Jake, but leaving him off the roster was the correct move again. I’m sure he’s on the taxi squad.

    1oldpro, there are a few good reasons why I should feel like the Astros will win this series decisively. You’ve noted a couple of them.

    I think it’s going to be a tougher job though. Bruce Bochy has pulled his guys off the edge of a cliff numerous times. And they have certainly responded in post season play.

    I think it will be an agonizing, thrilling series with a whole lot of twists and turns.

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  7. Altuve is at his most dangerous (to the Stros) when he’s on base. Intelligence cannot be taught. You either have it or you don’t. He doesn’t.

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  8. 20 year old Carter has played left field in Minute Maid as well as I’ve seen any guy play it. The kid is the difference in this game. He’s a Big Boy in Arlington.

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    • It’s the first time he has ever played LF at MMP. Just saw the post game interview with him. Hard to not like that kid. He played the drive from Bregman to perfection.

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      • That stupid mistake by Altuve was a real buzzkill. The bases loaded strikeout from MoldyNADA surprised absolutely noone.
        That Baker didn’t pinch hit for him in that situation is just another example of his stubborn refusal to face reality costing the team a win. Or rather a chance at a win.
        That moron has got to go.

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  9. Here’s hoping this game was a harbinger of the beginning of the end of Dusty Baker in Houston! Can’t happen too soon.

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  11. Jordan Montgomery was incredible. Behind him, the Rangers were the better team last night.

    If Framber doesn’t Framber, this could be a short series.

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  12. Darn, too many failures. Bullet point time.

    I watched that game somewhat detached. I was looking for a clean game from the Astros. Instead we got it from the Rangers. They are 6-0 in post season play. They are the favorites in this series.

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  13. Jose Altuve made perhaps the worst base running play of his long distinguished career. For an eventual HOF guy, he has the ability to totally space out. That was Little League. Even after Bregman’s bid came up short, I still felt good about the 8th inning. Alas, the Rangers made plays. We did not.

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  14. Our top four bats went 1-16 against the Twins in game four last week. Our top five guys went 2-19 last night. Two singles. That won’t work. Give Montgomery credit. Yordan has not looked so bad all year. And Tucker has picked the worst possible time to go into one of his slumps.

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  15. I mentioned the 20 year old kid in left last night. He made three plays out there that likely don’t get tracked down by Alvarez or Brantley. Especially the big one. And Pettis didn’t even think about sending Chas home against Carters arm even with two outs and Maldy coming up next. He also got a ball through the infield for a hit and astutely turned it into a double, then scored the first run of the game. Bochy seems okay in using a kid with 62 MLB career at bats in game one of the ALCS.

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  16. But it’s certainly not time to be concerned, right? We’ve hit Eovaldi before. Framber has shut these guys down before. And we’re a great road team too. I still feel kind of detached though. Should I?

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  17. Thoughts
    – Darn you daveb – you mentioned Carter before the first game as a factor and he sure was
    – Carter can start with no experience, Yainer gets to pinch hit with no one on – not with the bases filled
    – But truthfully after Altuve’s walk – the moment the ball left Bregman’s bat, I thought – oh yes! – Really thought it was gone, but even when I saw it heading for the deep part – I thought it was off the wall. I’m thinking guys on 2nd and 3rd or 2nd and a run scored and the middle of the lineup coming up
    – Montgomery pitched very well -JV was almost as good, but not quite
    – Did anyone, I mean anyone, think that Maldy was going to come up big with the bases loaded and two outs?
    – Bryan Abreu is pitching just so well – unbelievable stuff right now
    – Framber has to come up big – he just must

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  18. Is this a must win game?
    I know the Astros are great on the road and all that rot – but they need to win if for nothing other than to turn around the momentum of this Rangers team that is a 6-0 bulldozer in the postseason.
    They need Framber to be the ace he is sometimes, but not always. Otherwise, they will need to win 4 out of 5 including three on the road. And maybe they can win the three on the road, but if they lose tonight, I’m not sure I can rely on them to win one of two at home.

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    • Must win? If they don’t win this afternoon, that means we will be left only two more potential opportunities to use our “aces”, should the series go as far as seven games.

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  19. Gee, Bagdhad Brian McTaggart is awfully quiet today, isn’t he? Could it be that he is running out of ways to make gross incompetence look good? That sort of literary gymnastics has got to be exhuasting.

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  21. Well, at least Framber took the suspense out of how this game is going to go in the first inning. So what is everybody doing the next two hours instead of watching bad baseball?

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  24. Last night I had no hope, though I was hoping Maldy would run into one of those hits he occasionally makes by virtue of so many PA’s availed to him. Alas, he did not disappoint by SO. To be fair, the tms big boppers were bopless, and the bottom of the lineup had more hits than the top. Verlander, Framber and Javier, and lately Uquidy (the media, have heaped praise on Maldy’s prowess behind the plate recently. However that praise may merit consideration, if any of these P are on the mound pitching for the tms playoff life and the chance to put some hard-to-come-by needed runs on the board presents itself, might it be prudent go with the better bat in a tight game?
    My God! 4-0 in the top of the 1st. Lord help us! Sorry, I’ve lost the will to say anymore.

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  26. If the Astros season ends in Arlington (as I think it will) I think the point where it all started to go to s___ was when Valdez intentionally hit Semien and set off the Dresden level firestorm. I really do.

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  27. The fact that Valdez is out there for a 2nd inning means Baker is white flagging this one. Is he waiting for it to be 7-0 before he makes a change?

    You got a day off tomorrow. Get France out there now.

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  29. This 5-1 game is far from over in the 4th. If our pen keeps us in it, we might string some hits together.

    But I want to speak about Framber. I know it’s not the off season yet, but for him, it might as well be. Do we send him out again after his last two outings? Maybe we’ll fight back and have to make that very decision with Framber. I’d go with a bullpen game instead of handing him another start.

    Framber is high maintenance. I’m tired of the fake dreadlocks. I’m tired of 5 pounds of chains. The shoe change crap between innings is flat out embarrassing. I want a stripped down pitcher, proud to wear his uniform. A guy that does not have a need to be an individual when he steps on the mound. I want a guy that will work his ass off to improve his defense. Shouldn’t we expect a major league pitcher to get a tapper in front of the mound over to first base?

    We’ve coddled Framber. And to the detriment of our baseball team. Somehow his own needs are more important that playing the best guys on our roster. Selfish. No bleeping way he’s a team player. He’s got two years of team control left. He’s probably worth something close to 200 innings again next year and in 2025. But I want to trade him this winter. He’s worth some talent. But most importantly, it’s time to take this team and fix it. I want 26 guys more concerned about the other 25 than themselves.

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  38. What a stunning job by our pen again. Unfortunately, their arms got enough outs from our very quiet offense once more.

    The Houston Astros are considerable long shots for the first time in several years. Is there turmoil in house?

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    • Is there turmoil in the house?” I have to wonder the same thing. This team hasn’t looked like the Astros of last year or before last year. They don’t play with any swagger. They don’t seem to be a cohesive group as before. Obviously I’m not in the locker room and thus I don’t really know what is at work. They’ve seemed off the whole season beginning with a home split against the worst team in baseball.

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      • I think the Astros should put you in charge. You’d solve every problem the franchise has in 5 minutes.

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      • Well, I woudn’t be just sitting there with a toothpick up my ___ throwing darts at the wall to pick my lineups. That’s for sure.
        FDB

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    • What? Framber did what he’d done in his 2021 postseason. The hitters had their chances but came up short. Mental mistakes by Framber and Altuve (yesterday) are probably not indicative of turmoil. Failing to hit the ball happens. The pressure is on now and game 3 could certainly be considered a must win game. If it were any team other than the one I root for losing I would have said these were two great playoff games.

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  39. Tonight’s game was winnable. Don’t think I’ve pled for someone, anyone, to hit the damn ball with RISP like that all season. Dan, time for your engineering firm to do a structural check in MMP and condemn it for repairs the rest of the season. I don’t mind the Road Warriors playing in Arlington the rest of the way.
    I kinda expect the guys to get back in this series in Arlington. Can’t phantom how they can’t seem to win at home though. But first things first. Better win up there!

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  40. Good morning Astro fans! Tough day at the office yesterday. Now we have a real mountain to climb. But a month ago I saw our guys dismantle the Rangers in Arlington. So who knows? I think it’s a long shot though. Those guys are playing a confident, composed brand of baseball right now. At the very least, I hope our guys make things interesting. Winning two in a row is certainly not out of the question if our bats do what they’re supposed to do. That would be a start! And heck, our pitchers collectively have kept a very solid offense in check.

    I still feel exactly the way I did yesterday when I made my feelings regarding Framber perfectly clear. It comes down to this: can we get better by trading Framber? Yes, we’d lose 200 innings a year for a couple of years. But we went just 17-14 with Framber on the mound this year. And we’re 0-2 with him in the post season, when it really counts. My gut just does not want to pay Framber 10 million in arbitration this winter.

    We’ve got two years of team control left. He’ll be 30 in November. He goes 5’11” and 240 or so. Physically he’s been rock solid. Mentally we don’t and likely won’t know. But he has been remarkably inconsistent. And how does he react to a new catcher next year, assuming Martín Maldonado is not available to be his semi private man-servant. Of course I should not assume anything about where Maldy might be next year.

    There will be teams that will want two years of Framber this winter. I don’t think Framber is going to get extended by the Astros, nor given a new contract here in Houston in 2026. Can Dana Brown come up with a deal that helps our club in 2024, one that might include a significantly younger arm, perhaps a more athletic guy, rough around the edges but with good stuff and a healthy perspective? I’m all in.

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    • The biggest difference I see is the number of pitches out of the zone we go after and the number they don’t. Confidence slows the game down for you, when the game goes slower you let it come to you and you don’t try and force. The Astros are forcing. They have guys that are prone to chase anyway, but now Yordan has done some chasing, Tucker has done some chasing, Abreu is chasing, and it’s making it easier on the Rangers pitching.

      Eovaldi didn’t even have to throw strikes to retire Yainer and Jose before getting a ground out from Bregman. Bases loaded, no outs, and we chased. When Yainer laid off the first two out of the zone I thought atta boy, make him come in, but then, he didn’t make him come in.

      Right now, the Rangers hitters are executing their plans, and the Astros hitters are not.

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  41. Down 2-0? Having to win at least 2 of 3 on the Rangers’ home turf just to stay alive?

    Heh-heh-heh … we’ve got ’em right where we want ’em!

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  42. Down 2-0? Having to win at least 2 of 3 on the Rangers’ home turf just to stay alive?

    Heh-heh-heh … we’ve got ’em right where we want ’em!

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  44. My thoughts on Framber – just doesn’t seem the same pitcher since the no hitter. I was concerned that he wanted that no-no so bad that he over exerted for it. He said after the game that he felt like he made his pitches and that they got lucky that some of those fell, well, I guess it’s coincidence the luck ended when you left the game. I think his arm is tired. And when the arm is tired it doesn’t always show in velocity, sometimes it shows in bite, and I’m betting some baseball savant out there has the stats on his spin rates and break – and they aren’t the same since July. Yes, I am also sure that he can’t get out of his own way inside his head sometimes too.

    The frustration of bases loaded and no outs and ending the inning with no runs is tough. I am an Aggies fan as well, and losing winnable games has become their calling card the last 2 years. Tennessee made every effort to give them that game on Saturday, and they just refused to take it, matching them mistake for mistake.

    Javier being great for 5 innings is the most “thank you captain obvious” statement ever, but, well, Javier has to be great for 5 innings tomorrow. The bullpen has held up their end, though Pressly still proves to be a little bit of heartstopper instead of a stopper.

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  45. And the most frustrating part of this – this feels like the Longhorns winning. It’s doubly bad when Rangers fans get to celebrate it. It’s like someone kicked my dog, then the next person kicked it again. Luckily I don’t know any Rangers fans, or at least any that admit to it, but I am sure they actually do exist.

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  46. Allow me to tug on Superman’s cape briefly. Yordan Alvarez has scored or drove in 18 of the Astros 24 runs this postseason. Since the Mr. October handle is taken, Yordan needs his own, or will the media create a new one instead?

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    • On the morning of game 3, a must, must win, I’m not going to bite on any speculation. I will say though that this particular speculation is encouraging. We know we’ve got a dinosaur in the dugout! Let’s score 10 today!

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  49. Phil Specter, Barry Mann and Cynthia Weil dropped by. They asked me how things were going with the Astros – and I told them. They scribbled down these words, and asked me to deliver them to the Astros clubhouse in Arlington:

    You don’t hit balls in the gap anymore when it matters most.
    And where are those great at-bats that used to make their starting pitchers toast?
    Though you get paid like A-listers,
    you hit like my two baby sisters!
    Have you lost … that winning feeling … oh that winning feeling …
    Have you lost that winning feeling … is it gone, gone, gone?

    Bregs and Tuve, we’ve cheered til we’re hoarse for you.
    Yordan and KTuck, we’ve poured love like water on you big guys too.
    Now it’s getting harder to hold on to that kind of faith;
    when every game you guys come in trailing through seven, then eight!
    Have you’ve lost … that winning feeling … oh that winning feeling ….
    Bring back that winning feeling or we’re done, done, done – while Arlington moves on.

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