Astros in an “anyone-can-win-it” three-game series

Not that the original five-game ALDS between the Minnesota Twins and the Houston Astros was not in ”Anyone Can Win It” territory, but by splitting the first two games, this series has morphed into the equivalent of a very short Wild Card Series. 

Looking closely at the two-game split through Sunday, the inclination is that the Twins got the better of it.

  • They were the road team and won one of the two games, as they did with their 6-2 waxing of the Astros in Game 2. They now have a home-field advantage and can close the series at home before the Astros get another home game.
  • They have the momentum as they have clearly outplayed the Astros for the last game and a half with their 4-run rally in game 1 that turned that one from a laugher to a near heartbreaker for the Astros. Then behind Pablo Lopez, who has been nasty this post-season in two starts, the Twins cruised to a win in Game 2.
  • They have their ace, Sonny Gray, going in Game 3, which might be a huge advantage if the Astros continue their inconsistent hitting tendencies.
  • They have the “good” Carlos Correa playing for them, the one who moved into a tie for the third most RBIs in Major League playoff history with his three so far in the ALDS. It was also pretty clear that he was not happy to get booed by the Astro fans “after all he had done for them” in the past. Don’t kick the snake.
  • After getting the 18-game playoff loss streak gorilla off their collective backs, they seem to be running pretty free at this point. They are a dangerous team.
  • Oh, and if need be, the Twins would likely be bringing Lopez back out for a game 5 (if needed), and the Astros looked like they were trying to hit baseballs pinata style in Game 2 against him.

Jumping back to the Astros’ side – all is not lost.

  • They are a very good road team. They are in the playoffs and in this seed in the AL side after sweeping the D’Backs (who swept their Wild Card series and whopped Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers in Game 1 of the NLDS afterward) on the road.
  • They have Yordan Alvarez. Don’t need to elaborate.
  • They also have Jose Altuve, who has been great in his two-thirds of a season. They have the AL leading RBI man in Kyle Tucker. They have Alex Bregman, who has had many a fine moment in the playoffs. They have Jose Abreu, who carried the offense in Games 1 and 2 of the D’Back series. They have Jeremy Pena, who was the 2022 ALCS and WS MVP. They have Michael Brantley, who is a line drive machine. They have Chas McCormick, who was one of the top offensive producers in his limited at bats this season. They have big-time rookie Yainer Diaz… on the bench.
  • They also have Cristian Javier pitching in Game 3, who proved his mettle in last year’s playoffs with his brilliant six no-hit innings in Game 4 of the World Series.
  • They have a bullpen full of arms that dominated last year’s playoffs.

Game 3 is critical to avoid putting the team in a win-or-go-home hole in Games 4 and 5. Can they sweep on the road again? Tuesday night will be a critical game in a series of critical games.

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52 responses to “Astros in an “anyone-can-win-it” three-game series”

  1. Don’t forget about the weather, Dan. Even a nice October day in Minneapolis can be rather brisk when you’re out standing in your field. Take it from a guy who has BTDT more than a few times. Add a little wind and it’s downright nasty.
    When you hit a hard baseball with any authority with a wooden bat in that weather, it hurts.
    I’m wondering how these Houston hothouse flowers are going to deal with playing under a chilly blue sky instead of a roof.

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  2. As I recall the Astros in this stretch of playoff appearances have played some teams with cooler weather – Yanks, Red Sox, White Sox, Guardindians, Phillies and even the Twins in 2020 – just can’t recall if they’ve had to play in too cool a weather in any of those series. Yes, even though my family left the north (Milwaukee and Chicago) many moons ago, I do remember that the cold weather made it tough on catching balls and hitting balls. Oh well – the guys just need to power through it.

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    • And, more importantly I think, gripping the baseball to throw effective pitches is also a challenge. We’ll see what happens tomorrow afternoon. Thankfully (for the Stros) these won’t be night games.
      Even Minnesnowtans aren’t THAT stupid……

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  5. With Dana Brown being able to relieve two “established” front office personnel today, that shows me that he probably has the full run of the team finally.

    Now, with that written, and Baker’s poor management decision to allow Maldy to bat instead of Diaz, last night, I feel that Brown will NOT renew Baker’s contract at the end of this season regardless of how the team finishes.

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    • Oh!! Add to that the decision that Verlander will NOT pitch in game four while on full rest is perplexing and fodder to send Baker on his way out the door. Why is this man practicing managing to NOT win???

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      • Lopez is lined up to start game 5 if the series gets that far. I imagine our strategy is to have a fully rested Verlander to counter him. Of course, you have to get there…but if we can’t win one of the next two to force it we don’t deserve to be having that debate.

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  6. Good morning!

    Let’s see what Javier brings today. My expectations remain limited. I don’t know what to expect. Although I was not surprised by Framber’s performance on Sunday, I’m at least hoping Javier will step back a ways and provide us with something of a 2022 post season performance. And I think we should hit Sonny Gray. But if we don’t get pitching and hitting today, we’re in trouble.

    I’m guessing Brantley just can’t go today. Diaz is DH, but that’s still a waste of our far superior option behind the plate. I know we’ll talk about this and other issues down the road.

    What a stunning series developing between the Phils and Braves. Those fans in Philly will be a force from the start of game 3. And Arizona has got the Dodgers at the edge of a cliff again. Dave Roberts, can he survive yet another early exit if they go home on Wednesday? And Heaven forbid the Rangers become out Texas representative going forward into the ALCS. Lot’s of tantalizing post season baseball happening.

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  8. Thanks for reminding me that this is now a best of 3 series, like the majority of series we face all year. Sometimes it is the simple things that get blotted out by the fog of a loss.
    The playoffs are fun and it is nice to be in them. I also like the idea of an all AL West ALCS.
    Wouldn’t that just be dandy to see all those AL East announcers looking for reasons why it happened.

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    • And then the announcers can explain why the two AL West teams vying for the AL titles are two time zones away from the Pacific Ocean.

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      • Here’s hopinng they realign to an east, west, north, south arrangement with no wild cards. This three wild card business is for the birds.

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      • I think the four Wild Card teams still in it are happy to be in the mix and representing themselves pretty darn well.

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      • That’s true, Dave. I just don’t to see the MLB playoffs become like the NHL where everybody but your mother in law’s dog makes the playoffs.
        Four divisions in each league and 7 game series for each round. Any more than that is just greed by team owners and it gets disgusting after a while.

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  12. Encouraging. Javier had some tough pitches called the wrong way. Framber would have freaked. Sonny Gray is not some god. He’s been hit before. Pile on.

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  13. They just said that Maldonado is one of the best sacrifice bunters in the league. See? Clearly there is a reason he’s in the lineup.

    It’s awful MLB schedules games at these times. You get to transition from the first few innings where the hitters can’t see pitches to the middle innings where the fielders can’t see fly balls. Brilliant.

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    • What’s really brilliant is a bunch of stupid yankees who didn’t put a roof on their new ballpark. Back in 1982, my apartment was approximately where the 3rd base dugout is now. Trust me, the weather there is almost always rotten. For baseball or anything else.

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  16. Good things happened today. Javier was tough and just did not give in. At this point, he qualifies as a big game pitcher. Abreu keeps hitting like it’s still September. Pena crushed a rally. I hope they keep pitching to Alvarez. My guy Yainer looked terrible. He’ll be on the bench tomorrow. Chas will be back. Twins won’t go easy. Tough assignment for Urquidy or France. But we should hit Joe Ryan too.

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  17. On the mlb site it shows Urquidy vs. Ryan tomorrow

    Thoughts
    – That top of the batting order when it is rolling is tough. Altuve getting on – Breggie showing pop, Yordan hitting everything hard – even that tough luck error in the first and his two doubles and a dinger, Tucker with two walks and that first RBI and Abreu with two huge bombs and 5 RBIs.
    – Javier was so tough to hit, it was only his bit of wildness that got him in any trouble. He’s back to Mr. Invisiball big time K guy
    – Only Bryan Abreu used from the higher leverage part of the bullpen, but they all did their jobs
    – That play by Pena….Correa doesn’t get there anymore and maybe never did
    – Playing in 50+ degree weather not bad without wind and during the day.
    – Those fans were super loud until they weren’t so much
    – C’mon Astros – win tomorrow and set it up for JV to start the next round

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    • Hard to believe after that 16 HR/ 50 run blitz the Astros spanked them with back in September, but they are on a serious roll

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  19. Good morning,

    Our Astros keep sucking us back in! I would have preferred staying with the early start today but Maldy will get a couple of extra hours to rest his haunches. I’ve got to figure that the Twins, once on base will be very aggressive today.

    Our bats have got to get on Joe Ryan early (and I think they will) to give Urquidy some breathing room and put that whole club back on their heels. I’ve got nothing against Carlos Correa, but my stomach does not appreciate a big performance from him.

    Does Brantley have a game left in him? If so, he should take advantage of Ryan and the other righties in the Minnesota pen.

    I’ll be watching a silent broadcast today. The Maldy Dusty grizzled veteran old school wisdom angle has just got me worn out. Is seems that by todays measures, Maldy gets the credit for those five one hit shutout innings, even though his total inability to frame a close pitch helped give the Twins a couple of those five free passes.

    I’m really appreciating seeing what this somewhat underdog squad can accomplish, but have to admit that I keeping peeking ahead to next year and a different approach from the Astros.

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    • I don’t mind giving Maldy some credit for Javier’s 5 innings – if we give him the blame for Framber’s not so good almost 5 innings.

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  20. The AL East had 3 teams in the playoffs and they won a combined total of 0 playoff games.
    All year long we heard about the juggernaut of that division being so strong that they eliminated the other two “giant” franchises in NY and Boston. Now we truly know how strong that division was.
    Maybe next year.

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    • MLB will be beside themselves once the Dodgers lose in Arizona tonight. But ratings are going to suffer going forward. MLB will help the Mets and Yankees and Red Sox become relevant again in any way they can!

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      • Then maybe MLB should start embracing teams other than their current favorites. Raving about their favorites all the time and sharing the wealth might increase ratings. It might also help if they encouraged fans from the coasts to watch other cities’ winners, instead of booing the decade’s best team like a 12 year old does.

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  21. The lineup behind Urquidy….

    Altuve 2B
    Bregman 3B
    Alvarez DH
    Tucker RF
    Abreu 1B
    Brantley LF
    McCormick CF
    Peña SS
    Maldonado C

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  23. Great game. Urquidy, Neris, Abreu shutting down an excellent hitting team. And then Pressly made three impeccable pitches to strike out the heart of the line up to finish it. Incredible.

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  24. It’s mind boggling how the postseason is being debated now that #1 seeds, except the Stros, are getting their A$$e$ kicked. Don’t blame it on the format. The Stros pushed through with rest, so why can’t the big dogs wear their big boys pants to advance? Ask me if I’m heartbroken they got booted, lol.
    I’m calling Alvarez MONEY $$$. He shines when the bright lights come on. Abreu has earned my respect coming up big under the bright lights. Can we get our Ace to pitch like one this next rd? Will his fragile ego be bruised if Javier and JV start ahead of him? The Pen has been solid and most of the lineup has contributed some hits.
    I’m concerned about Tuck. Some of the metrics guys call it bad luck. While his numbers had been great, the fact that his lack of hitting lately, especially with RISP belie those great numbers. We need his bat to come to life.
    I will not forgive the powers that be for allowing Dusty to bench Diaz before seasons end, including most of the playoffs thus far. The small sample size of one DH and 1-2 PH appearances was not an indicator to me he was a flameout. But then we knew he would sit. I’m ready for the slugfest against the Rangers.

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    • Andre – I’m with you man. I would say in relation to Tuck, you just have to be patient with these small sample slumps. In 2017, folks were ready to move Springer down in or out of the lineup after a terrible ALCS. Voila – he was the WS MVP.

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  25. I’m happy to know there will be a Texas team in the World Series this year. I’ll be rooting for whichever one it is.
    But the way I feel about DF Baker still isn’t going to ever change. I want him as extinct as the dinosaurs as soon as possible no matter what happens.
    FDB

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  26. A great game and series with contributions from the whole team. Even though Pena’s bat was missing his glove sure saved us. Who would have thought Framber would be our 4th best starter? If he gets it together, who can stop us? Pressly picked up from where he left off last postseason and was impressive:

    If he keeps on pitching, bats are going to break
    If he keeps on pitching, bats are going to break
    When Ryan Pressly throws strikes, try to put the ball in play

    Stone cold Pressly taught me to weep and moan, oh
    Stone cold Pressly taught me to weep and moan
    He’s got what it takes to make me chase outside of the zone
    Oh well, oh well, oh well, ooh

    Oh, don’t it make you feel bad
    When you’re trying to find a barrel
    You don’t know which way he’ll throw
    If he’s going down south, you got work cut out for you
    Better retire to Mexico
    Ah, ah, ah, hey

    Grinding won’t help you, flailing won’t do you no good
    No, grinding won’t help you, faliling won’t do you no good
    When Ryan Pressly throws strikes, brother, you’re gonna lose, ooh

    All last night I sat on the fastball and moaned
    All last night, sat on the fastball and moaned
    Thinking how I swung late and I tipped it foul, oh-ho

    Ah, ah, ah, ah-ah
    Ah, ah, ahh, ah-ah, oh, oh

    Going
    I’m going to Mexico
    Play futbol for Jeff Luhnow
    Sorry, but I can’t take you, ah
    Going down, going down now
    Going down, I’m going down now
    Going down, going down
    Going down, going down
    Oh

    Going down, going down now
    Going down, going down now
    Going down, going down now
    Going down, going, dow-dow-dow-dow-down now
    Ooh, ooh

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  28. Andre Gray, you are Old School, no? We’re just going to have to accept the fact that Diaz won’t be playing in the post season of 2023. Dusty Baker looks good right now. Yeah, he sat Diaz in the last four games of the regular season and has given him just 1 game to DH in the post season. But the Astros won 5 of their last 6 regular season games and have just won 5 of 6 post season games. And Diaz, who had his best month of the season in September, has turned to rust for now. He needs regular at bats. He looked flat out lost on Tuesday night. But if we hang around until 2024 and beyond, he’ll be our guy, assuming our old grizzled manager rides off into the sunset.

    By the way, the top of our order went 1-16 with a single last night. When we find a way to win those games, I think it’s a good sign. Altuve, Bregman and Tucker need to reawaken. Alvarez wanted so badly to be involved last night that he forgot all of his plate discipline skills swinging twice at balls bouncing in front of the plate.

    My elephant in the room though is that in a seven game series, Framer Valdez simply needs to find himself.

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  29. A great submittal about Maldy, on the Crawfish Boxes website, by Clack…

    “It’s safe to read Sports Illustrated when Verducci is the author. and he writes the article on how teams are Maldonado’d in the playoffs.
    Playing the Astros with Martín Maldonado behind the plate is like walking into a fun house room of mirrors. Nothing is as it seems. Confusion reigns. Houston starter Jose Urquidy makes one start in the past 48 days and suddenly he is Mike Scott, an unhittable Astro from postseasons past. The Twins swung and missed 19 times at his pitches in Game 4, four more than Urquidy obtained in any game this year.
    He quotes Carlos Correa after the game:
    “I don’t want to give credit to Maldonado, because, you know, he’ll bring it up at some point when I talk to him in the offseason,” Correa said, shaking his head. “But he knows what he’s doing behind the plate. And he knows every hitter’s weaknesses and he’s going to try to exploit. He pitches against the [hitters’] expected slug.

    “He does all that and we knew it and still it was hard to make the adjustments. The way he was pitching backwards … hitters counts, he will go off-speed and then counts where you throw off-speed regularly, he’ll go fastballs up. You know, they did a good job of mixing and matching. We just have got to get better, and we got to have a better plan and there’s a lot of things that could have gone better for us and they didn’t.”

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    • I read that article this morning. I’m a bit surprised Clack would comment on it, as he really focuses on analytics. It’s fair to say what Maldonado brings to the game behind the plate can’t really be measured as there are no reliable statistics to determine what helpful impact a catcher has on a pitcher. Most all experts say today that that cERA is unreliable. So other than passed balls, wild pitches and to a degree, base stealers thrown out, everything else that a catcher does for a pitcher is speculation including what pitches he calls. Pressly threw perfect pitches last night with 3 full counts. That’s why those guys struck out. Had he thrown Maldy’s pitch poorly, it would have been on Pressly. Let’s face it, we hear about Maldy everyday, I think more than anyone besides Alvarez. And while nobody wants say they insist on having Maldy catch them, it’s fair to say Maldy makes them feel comfortable, confident. Maybe it’s a simple as that. As I said earlier today, the Astros have won 10 out of their last 12. It’s working. So even though I’m as sold on Diaz as a fan comes, I would not advocate any change now. Carry on Astros.

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  30. And one more little note. One day soon a few of our pitchers are going to have put on their Big Boy shoes too. Maldy will not be out there with them forever. He’s going to be replaced by an All Star catcher for years to come. And we’ll be a better team for it.

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    • Yes, absolutely true. Also, I said great article, I did not mean Maldy was great. I was referring got to what Correa had to say. It is not often that we get to see behind the scenes of player thoughts.

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