The Houston Astros will be taking on the Minnesota Twins in one side of the ALDS, and though one person may get all the attention, the two teams have more in common than Carlos Correa.
- The Astros closer (for the moment) Ryan Pressly spent his first 5-1/2 seasons as a set-up man for the Twins.
- Twins catcher, Christian Vazquez picked up a World Series ring with the 2022 Astros and knocked in a breathing room RBI in the sixth and final game against the Phillies.
- Dallas Keuchel was the Astros Cy Young winner when this version of the team finally made it to the playoffs in 2015 and was a big rotation piece from 2012 through 2018, including as a 14-game winner with the 2017 championship team. He was placed on the 15-day IL with a calf injury Sunday which will prevent him from being on the ALDS roster.
- The Twins finally broke out of their 19-year and 18-game playoff drought in this season’s Wild Card series. They had not won even one playoff game since 2004. The Astros understand the idea of playoff droughts. They did not even make the playoffs until their 19th season in 1980. They did not win their first playoff series until their 43rd season in 2004 and, of course, did not win their first championship until their 56th season in 2017.
- The Astros (90-72) and the Twins (87-75) both won their divisions in a season when their teams were not exactly flying high. The last time a team won an AL division with 90 or fewer wins like the Astros were this year, was the 2015 Rangers (88-74). The last time a team won an AL division with 87 or fewer wins, like the Twins, was also the Twins, way back in 2009.
- And as those watching the series will be told over and over, the teams share a history with Carlos Correa, who shepherded in the Astros’ Renaissance with his Rookie of the Year 2015 season. Correa had many ups and downs mostly related to health issues, but had many clutch moments in the regular season and the playoffs for the team and was undoubtedly the best offensive shortstop in the Astros’ history. He left after the 2021 season in free agency to Minnesota and was replaced by Jeremy Pena, who was a huge part of the 2022 championship being the MVP in both the ALCS and the World Series.
So, what does this matchup look like…..
| Team | Twins | Astros |
| 2023 Record | 87-75 | 90-72 |
| Result | AL Central Champs | AL West Champs |
| 2023 Head to Head | 4-2 | 2-4 |
| Playoff History Head to Head | 0-2 | Astros won 2020 Wild Card 2-0 |
| 2023 Offense | 4.80 Runs / Gm 5th in AL | 5.10 Runs / Gm 3rd in AL |
| 2023 Starters | 3.82 ERA 1st in AL | 4.17 8th in AL |
| 2023 Relievers | 3.95 ERA 8th in AL | 3.56 ERA 4th in AL |
Health
- The Astros are the healthiest they have been all season. They are of course missing both pitchers Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers, who have had big moments in playoffs past. Beyond that, it seems like their DH/LF tandem of Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley have been taking days off here and there for their individual owies (booboos?). Everyone else seems to be in good shape, but this post has speculated on Ryan Pressly’s poor second half to the season, and whether it has a medical basis.
- The Twins were able to welcome back Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa from the IL in time for the Wild Card with Lewis seeming to fill the DH spot coming off his hamstring injury. Byron Buxton and his bum knee are likely to be looking on from the dugout, though he has been having a down season anyway. Joey Gallo is a question mark with a foot contusion that short circuited the end of his season. Dallas Keuchel will miss this series after being put on the 15 day IL after his last start with a calf strain.
Position Players
- Along with outscoring the Twins by about 0.3 runs per game during the regular season, the Astros have a better slash across the board .259 BA/ .331 OBP/ .768 OPS to the Twins .243 BA/ .326 OBP/ .753 OPS. The Twins hit more homers than the Astros 233 to 222, but strikeouts is the area of biggest difference. The Astros were the second toughest team to strike out in the AL (1241) while the Twins whiffed the most with 1654 Ks on the season. That is huge.
- It should be noted that the Twins outscored the Astros in the month of September, scoring 37 more runs, while only playing one more game than Houston. Perhaps having Buxton and Gallo out helped their offensive numbers, like if Martin Maldonado had pulled a hammy for the Astros.
- The two teams get their runs in very different ways. The Twins have 16 players with 32 RBIs or more, but top off with Max Kepler’s 66 RBIs. The Astros on the other hand only have 12 players with 33 or more RBIs, but their top end is way above the Twins as they have 5 players with 70 or more RBIs and four with 90 or more RBIs.
- The Twins who would most likely do the most damage are RF Kepler, CF Michael A. Taylor or (of course) SS Correa. But with so many Twins seeing time and driving in runs, the Astros better be ready for a surprise turn from 3B/DH Royce Lewis, 2B Jorge Polanco, C Ryan Jeffers, or 2B Edouard Julien.
- With the big bats of Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Abreu and Alex Bregman the Astros look like they would have firepower the Twins can’t match. Edge – Astros
Starting Pitching
- The Twins as stated above have the best starting ERA in the AL in 2023. They are slotted to go with Bailey Ober (8-6, 3.43 ERA), Pablo Lopez (11-8, 3.66 ERA) and Sonny Gray (8-8, 2.79 ERA) in the first three games. The Astros have Justin Verlander (7-3, 3.31 ERA with Houston), Framber Valdez (12-11, 3.45 ERA) and the dreaded TBD, who may be Cristian Javier (10-5, 4.56 ERA) in Tuesday’s game.
- Not included in those three Twin starters are two other options, Joe Ryan who has been struggling lately and who was knocked around by the Astros this season, and Kenta Maeda, who pretty successfully pitched against the Astros in four 2017 World Series relief appearances with the Dodgers and one 2020 Wild Card start…..if you ignore the three-run home run he gave up in the fifth game marathon to Jose Altuve on the way to the 13-12 loss.
- The Astros have three other potential starters, two of whom will likely not start a game, between J.P. France, Jose Urquidy, and Hunter Brown.
- If good Framber and good Javier show up, the Astros will be sitting pretty. But if either or both meltdown, this could be a real struggle. Edge – Toss-up
Bullpen
- The Astros have the better bullpen on paper, beating out the Twins’ bullpen by almost 0.4 ERA.
- The Astros are also coming into these playoffs off a 2022 bullpen performance for the ages. It was arguably the best bullpen playoff performance in the club’s history, and they have almost all the same pitchers in place.
- The most likely Twins to get called on are the closer Jhoan Duran (3-6, 2.45 ERA, 27 saves), Emilio Pagan (5-2, 2.94 ERA), Brock Stewart (2-0, 0.65 ERA), Caleb Thielbar (3-1, 3.23 ERA), Griffin Jax (6-10, 3.86 ERA) and Louie Varland (4-3, 4.63 ERA).
- The Astros of course, have the usual suspects with Ryan Pressly (4-5, 3.58 ERA, 31 Saves), Bryan Abreu (3-2, 1.75 ERA, 5 Saves), Hector Neris (6-3, 1.71 ERA), Phil Maton (4-3, 3.00 ERA), Ryne Stanek (3-1, 4.09 ERA), Kendall Graveman (2-2, 2.42 ERA) and Ryne Stanek (3-1, 4-09 ERA)
- The wild card here may be the insertion of a starter or two between France, Brown, and Urquidy into the long role in the bullpen. Remember what Luis Garcia’s five-inning run in the third Mariner’s game in the 2022 ALDS meant to clinch that series.
- This would seem to be an area that leans the Astros’ way – Edge – Astros
I’d like to talk about comparing the managers, but I’ll leave that to you.
Prediction – Astros in 4 Games
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
26 responses to “Astros and Twins are not exactly Twins, but…”
Hey Folks – anybody out there?
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The Astros are a better team, playing in a much better division and have a world of playoff winning experience.
That being said, they have not exactly played well against lesser teams lately.
Are the Astros hungrier than the Twins? I hope they are.
Astros in four!
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If Maldy and Dubon start, then the Astros have a better bench :-p
The Twins (and every other team) has a better manager. Hopefully we will get a big lead in all of our games that Dusty can’t screw up.
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Good morning. Important baseball to be played this afternoon.
I understand it would be a beautiful day for the roof to be open.
I hope Chas does not sit in order to get Brantley in the line up today.
Huge game. Time to get past the 39-42 regular season record and own the home park.
Abreu needs to continue his September in October.
I hope Correa is a non factor. Baseball Savant says his range factor is down to 37th percentile. Sprint speed is 32 percentile. I’m okay with that.
Ober is pretty good and has a higher release point than most guys obviously. He does not throw a bunch of ground balls. But neither does Verlander. Ober will be a different look for our bats. Hope our guys figure him out and pounce early.
I want an ump with a consistent strike zone. These games are too important to screw up.
No prediction here. I still don’t know.
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The Astros will be a fascinating team to watch. In our minds we can say that this is better than the 90 win team they were in 2023. But you can look at that last month of the season and say yes, they are not a 90 win team – they are more like an 80 win team.
This home / road split is just weird. Now granted this has been, with the exception of 2020 (which seems to be in every explanation as an exception) a very good road team since 2017. In fact, they won more on the road than at home in 2017 and 2018. But they were still good home teams in those years, they were just exemplary road teams. It is somewhat like the Twins and their 18 game loss streak in the playoffs. There is really no logical explanation for it and the only way to change things is to “Just win”. https://chipalatta.com/2023/09/29/the-astros-need-to-win-period/
That is one thing you have to worry about with the Twins. Now that they’ve gotten that playoff loss streak off their backs are they going to play loose and free?
As I wrote before, I cannot figure this Astros’ team out at all. They could go out in this round or take it all. I think they have less margin for error this time around, than in 2022 and they are not as likely to have the Braves and Dodgers knocked off for them before a potential WS matchup, but this team has shown they can lose to anyone or beat anyone.
So, sit back folks and enjoy the fact that your team is in the playoffs. Here on out – anything can happen.
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So with Chas in center, does that mean conclusively that Dubon starting out there was not a Verlander invention?
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Huge opening win. The Astros did a lot right today.
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By the way, that was indeed a well called game today.
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I agree 100%. Thank goodness for Yordan. Feel sorry for Neris as he just didn’t have it tonight. JV with a great performance along with Abreu and Presley. Need to win tomorrow to put the Twins on their heels.
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Great, but not perfect, way to start the ALDS.
– As the old folk song went “When will they ever learn…” Yordan hammers another left handed reliever brought in specifically to face him. That is of course after hammering a right handed starter earlier in the game. What a hitter!
– What can you say about Altuve? The guy is just amazing. Of course, that was another “When will they ever learn….” moment as he hammered another first pitch of the game.
– Verlander drove me crazy early on, but eventually settled down and deserved the win
– I guess Neris’ luck with getting out of tight spots ran out.
– Good to see Bryan Abreu being Bryan Abreu and shutting down the rally, and then having Yordan turn it around
– Good to see Pressly not put anyone on base with a 2 run lead
Let’s pray for the good, poised Framber tonight.
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Kind of early to say this, but Baltimore looks to be toast.
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Today they are. Rangers aren’t messing around.
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So the McTaggart (MLB equivalent of Bagdhad Bob) line today is “business as usual”. Good news for the Twins!
Let’s see if Framber can keep his psyche together like JV did yesterday. I have serious doubts about that. These Twins aren’t going to lie down and quit.
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Everything he throws is either a mile out of the zone, or right down the middle.
He needs to be out now, before more damage comes.
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Unfortunately, Framber does not know where his pitches are going. Three outs so far, 37 pitches, 3 runs.
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B3 and it does indeed, look like “business as usual” from the Astros tonight.
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Framber has given up the curve, best adjustment I’ve seen in a while, he knew that pitch was not working.
Now the bats need to do some work, put some pressure on Lopez they have made it easy for him.
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“……he knew that pitch was not working.”
Looked like it was flying around pretty well to me.
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Can’t seem to get the hit with two outs. Come on guys. Too many 1st pitch strikes that they are watching go by.
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Yup. Business as usual. See you Tuesday, boys. Pack your woollies!
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I don’t like getting beaten up by Correa. Lot of weight on Javier’s shoulders. Offense has to collectively hit. It can’t all be on Alvarez.
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I’m going to withhold most of my comments today as I will work up a post at lunch – just very disappointed in Framber last night. I was just so glad that we had Maldy in the game instead of Diaz – so that along with not getting Framber settled in, he could leave key ducks on the pond. (Where’s my sarcasm font?) Of course there were a lot of our hitters, not named Yordan, who left the ducks on the pond.
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I’d like for the brain trust to at least admit when Maldonado isn’t calling a good game.
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Bregman, Tucker, Abreu & Maldy (no surprise here) were culprits of the Ofer brigade last night. It is unlikely this tm survives with 3 of those 4 bats MIA. While not surprised, I would have preferred Diaz be inserted in the lineup after Valdez was pulled. With Javier due to P in gm 3, Diaz will once again be forced to sit. Honestly, I would very much love to see how Diaz responds to the intense pressure of playoff baseball
Let us hope the road warrior version of the Astros show up the next two games. I turned last night’s game in the bottom of the 6th after observing our lineup see ball, chase ball with RISP and no one able to bring them home. If I’m Dusty, I’m going to live and die with my best offensive lineup the next 2 games
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Don’t count on Diaz in the lineup unless somebody intercedes. A pitiful offensive display last night and Framber was not good at all. We better get our act together or we’ll be on the outside looking in. And I just don’t like Correa. Didn’t care for him in his last season with Astros. They sure talked him up a lot for a guy who was not that good in the regular season.
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I remain without expectations. Framber did not surprise me last night. We got behind early. And then we got stifled by a well prepared, composed, excellent young pitcher. The Twins are a better club than their regular season record indicated. And they had a spring in their step we lacked last night. We looked old. Maybe Javier will come out tomorrow and throw 5 or 6 zeros and we’ll hit. If we don’t, we’re in trouble.
Dan, we can continue to lament the fact that we’ve got our best defensive catcher, the one with a 1.001 OPS while behind the plate, the one with a team record 26 and 16 when he starts, watching this series as a spectator. It won’t do any good though. Whether your post mortem post comes out this week or in early November, we’ll talk about it then.
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