It is always fun to poke a few holes here and there in myths that can be deflated with facts. Today we will attack two areas that I consider a bit mythy. One is held by the baseball world at large, and one is held by the current Astros fanbase.
Myth One – The Astros farm system has fallen on hard times since the scandal
I’ve pulled these farm system rankings from a couple different sources, including mlb.com and milb.com depending on which one I could easily retrieve (without paying for it), but here is where the Astros farm system has ranked each preseason over the last 5 years.
- 2023 – 27th out of 30
- 2022 – 29th
- 2021 – 29th
- 2020 – 28th
- 2019 – 5th
I could go back further, but that would continue to show the top 10 farm systems for a while. A few things happened between the pre-season of 2019 and that of 2020. During the 2019 season, Yordan Alvarez (as AL ROY) and Framber Valdez (as a pretty stinky pitcher) played enough to come off the prospect list. The Astros also shipped some top talent (J.B. Bukauskas, Seth Beer, Corbin Martin, and Josh Rojas) for Zack Greinke at the trade deadline. And, of course, “IT” happened. As soon as the scandal hit, every judgment of any part of the Astros world was seen through very dark sunglasses and biased stiffly against them.
Looking at a preseason 2020 list of the Astros’ top 30 prospects by Jimmy Price – Astros Top 30 Prospects For 2020 – Astros Future, shows a flotilla of solid future major leaguers – Jose Urquidy, Jeremy Pena, Abraham Toro, Cristian Javier, Bryan Abreu, Hunter Brown, Luis Garcia, Chas McCormick, Garrett Stubbs and Brandon Bielak. This does not even count those with cups of coffee at the top level, whose story may yet to be told, such as Korey Lee, Grae Kessinger, and Shawn Dubin.
When you look at what has happened with the Astros prospects by year….
2020 was the bizarre pandemic-mutilated season, but it was the season that Kyle Tucker established himself as a major leaguer after two cups of coffee in 2018 and 2019. Due to the many injuries to the pitching staff, there was a plethora of pitchers debuting in 2020, including Enoli Paredes, Andre Scrubb, Cy Sneed, Brandon Bielak, Brandon Bailey, Humberto Castellanos, Nivaldo Rodriguez, and Carlos Sanabria, but only Bielak has returned for any impact. But then there was Cristian Javier, who rode a strong season of 10 starts and 2 relief appearances to a third-place finish in the AL Rookie of the Year race.
2021 was a more regular season, and the biggest impact player from the rookies was Luis Garcia, who placed second in the AL Rookie of the Year race. Jose Urquidy, after 12 starts between 2019 and 2020, became a regular in the rotation in 2021. Both Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers got their feet in the door on their way to being solid outfield help going forward, of course, hindered by Meyers’ wall crash in the playoffs. Jose Siri had an unsustainable debut that led to him being traded after he came back to earth in 2022. After a couple short visits with the big club in 2019 and 2020, Bryan Abreu pitched quite a bit, but not all that well in 2021, but flipped this over with much stronger showings in 2022 and 2023.
In 2022, the Astros featured the top dog prospect of Jeremy Pena, who took over shortstop from the best SS in Astro history, Carlos Correa, and did well enough to come in fifth in the AL ROY race, win a Gold Glove and take home the ALCS and WS MVP trophies.
This leads us to 2023, where the Astros with the most awful farm system should have three players in the top 10 of the AL ROY race. J.P. France has been oh-so solid since coming up to the big team at the beginning of May. Hunter Brown has had some ups and downs but has given the team about all you could ask for a rookie thrown into a top-three spot in the reigning world champion rotation. And Yainer Diaz has done about all that was possible considering his sporadic use. His 14 HRs and 34 RBIs are great at only 232 ABs. If you factored him up to say… the 350 ABs by Mauricio Dubon that would be an awfully impressive 21 HRs and 51 RBIs by a rookie catcher with about 8 weeks left in the season.
The point is that the low ranking of the Astros farm system did not keep them from adding in players the last few years who have been vying for the title – best AL rookie of (fill in the blank).
Myth Two – Jeremy Pena’s fielding is so much worse than last year
Has Pena made some really bad errors this year? Yes, he has, just as he did last year. Is he doing it at a much higher rate than last year? He has had a bad run lately, but.. overall not bad comparing 2023 and 2022.
| Year | Games | Innings | Chances | Errors | DPs |
| 2022 | 134 | 1165 | 512 | 19 | 64 |
| 2023 (So far) | 102 | 904 | 409 | 10 | 64 |
| 2023 Factored | 134 | 1188 | 537 | 13 | 84 |
The chart above shows what Pena did in 2022 vs. 2023. If you factor his 2022 numbers to account for the 32 extra games, you find that he would have six fewer errors in about 23 more innings of play, and he would participate in a lot more DPs. The guess here is that moving the players back out of the extreme shifts of 2022 has allowed him to participate in a bunch more DPs this year.
He has looked bad lately. He has had 4 errors in his last 22 games and 8 in his last 41 games. But for the season, he is on a pace to have more chances and more DPs with fewer errors.
The season is a marathon, and he may just be in a bit of a rut lately. We can hope he figures this out and turns back into the playoff juggernaut he was last season.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
27 responses to “Astros 2023: A couple “myths”?”
I’ve never been impressed by ratings that are not based on statistics. Who cares how people rank our system? We keep bringing guys out of it that help us win.
Maybe the funk Pena is in at the plate is impacting his overall performance. Like I said this morning, his demeanor is off. Lazy errors are as bad as mental errors. Avoidable.
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Baseball Reference has Pena with an 0.7 dWAR. He had a 2.6 last year. Was he getting to more balls, making more tough plays, maybe just hustling more?
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Okay, last time I’ll bash Pena. As a rookie, he went 11/2 in stolen base attempts. This year it’s supposed to be easier. He’s 10/7. Injury? Focus? Effort?
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In baseball (as it is in every aspect of life) perception is reality. My perception this year (which apparently coincides with UK’s) is that Pena isn’t hustling like he did last year and is showing some attitude I don’t like.
We shall see what develops. This perception isn’t something that can be easily quantified with statistics. It’s more from the gut.
Which is where baseball games are really won or lost.
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Jon Singleton is being called up as I said…
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So who is coming off the 40 man? Kuhnel? Bligh? Bannon? Releasing Brantley cause he’s never coming back?
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Kimchi?
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Spenser Watkins was the guys name I think.
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Yeah, he got DFAd when they sent Julks down.
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I don’t have any expectations from Jon Singleton. At the same time, Dana Brown does not have much to lose. It will likely cost Diaz more at bats than it will cost Abreu at bats though. He sure has hit as a Space Cowboy. But we’ve seen this all before unless you’re too young to remember. Why might he suddenly start hitting for the Astros now?
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https://houston.sportsmap.com/houston-astros-jon-singleton-corey-julks-dusty
I know. We’ve hit this puppy in the head often enough. But then, it’s not just us.
Discussed here also is a middling offense and it’s struggles, including Friday’s ideal lineup.
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Thanks for the info Andre – thanks for stopping by. It is funny how we seem much more able to come up with an ideal lineup than the guy in control.
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One thing I will say about Singleton – as big a prospect as he has been in the past (and that big also covers around the waist) – he never hit this well for BA at AA or AAA as he has at Sugar Land. His career numbers at AAA are .238BA/.368 OBP/.826 OPS. Right now he is hitting at SL .333 BA/ .446 OBP/ 1.138 OPS. But he might be Brett (Moonpie) Wallace 2.0.
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I was very excited when Jon got to the majors the first time. This time I can hardly muster the raising of an eyebrow. I suspect Julks was experiencing some kind of major confidence-crisis, and needed a chance to get his head back on straight in the familiar environs of Sugar Land. We needed a warm body who could play a little fist base on a pinch- so it was Jon or JJ.
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Tim Anderson and Jose Ramirez played fist base the other day.
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Forgive my ignorance. Can someone explain why the Astros won’t bring up some of the guys mentioned raking in the minors? Like Loperfino (not sure spelled correctly). It is a status thing, or the loss of some kind of status. I don’t know those things.
I remember Singleton from yrs ago, the big bopper who only bopped in the minors. I suppose he can’t be any worse than Abreu right now, who needs a break apparently.
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Well, I would say that they are not on the 40 man and it is a problem making the moves to facilitate that, but….Singleton was not on the 40 man and they figured their way around that problem.
I doubt you will see Loperfido without him playing some at AAA first unless there is an injury with the big club. Maybe they will move him up with Singleton leaving AAA. Why he wasn’t moved up earlier, I don’t know as he has been mashing at AA as he mashed in 2022 at A and A+.
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It isn’t ignorance on your part. It’s just that Loperfido has only played 79 games at the AA level and the Astros want him to get his normal advancement in minor league progression before he faces major league pitching.
Singleton’s numbers in AAA were not good until he got to Sugarland this year. He hit .256 for Houston’s AAA affiliates the first time around. Then he cratered against MLB pitchers. Maybe he is finally ready now. I would like to hope so. I admire the Astros for giving him another shot.
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Jon Singleton is 31 years old. He isn’t 22 trying to figure out how to split his smoke time and his film time. He is a guy desperate for the opportunity to just have a smattering of time in the big leagues – and he has always had the talent. He is probably 50 pounds heavier, but also 50 pounds on the bench press stronger.
I don’t know if this thing will work. He may hit .150 in 50 ABs and it was a waste of time. He may hit .275 with 5 HR in that first 50 ABs and draw some walks and pay dividends. The reason he is coming is because he has that kind of ability. He is the kind of hitter I love – guys with power, that make solid contact, and draw walks. Yes, he is going to strike out, maybe in a spot or two that is going to make you groan, but he will draw walks. For a team that routinely plays 6 guys a night with below league average OBP’s he could help. Like I said, he could also fall flat on his face.
He is in a bad spot though. The only thing he can do is force Alvarez to LF every day. He isn’t taking Abreu’s job. There are 19.5M for that not to happen. I don’t want Diaz to lose PT but let’s be honest, Yainer seems to be one of those guys who needs to be in the field as well to keep his head into it. I really do believe that Yainer is going to start seeing more field time behind the plate. Maldy will probably still be the main guy, but Yainer will see more. But right now, I want Singleton in there. Five days a week if I can get it. I want to take advantage of a 31 year old that is cheap, bats from the side of the plate that I need, and is desperate to take advantage of his likely last opportunity. He did everything we asked him to at Sugar Land to get this opportunity. Let’s see what happens.
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A cynical person would note that 2021 was the last season he received a payment from the Astros ($250K) and 2022 was when he made his first minor league appearance since 2017 at Corpus. He did play a partial season in Mexico in 2021.
I have nothing against him, I hope he makes what might be considered a historical comeback and lets face it – he owes this organization for the more than $10 MM they gave him for practically nothing.
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Weren’t the old “glass half empty/glass half full” blogs inspired by my 6 month bender of cynicism? No one is more cynical than I. I usually am cynical of things I can see in the numbers. Jon Singleton brings a little light for me. I love redemption stories of guys that had the talent and for some reason at some point couldn’t be in the head space. Tin Cup, great movie. The numbers tell me he has to make contact. If he can do that (easier said than done when you are facing the best pitchers on the planet night in and night out) he can have success.
I’ve been the resident Jeremy Pena cynic since the day he arrived. I think he is a symptom of what is wrong with this team. He is all kinds of physically talented. Outside of his slight bow-legged running style he looks like everything that is a baseball player. He is the guy that the scouts from Moneyball would have loved. You know, the ball sounds different off the bat. His Johnson is in the room 30 seconds before he walks in. Blah blah blah. He can’t tell a ball from a strike. Success in the big leagues is contingent on that one thing. People say, give him time, he is young, he will grow. Carlos Correa had a .345 OBP at the age of 20. TWENTY. You either can, or you can’t. Now, he is big. He is strong. Those things give him the opportunity to take advantage of mistakes. He can hit .250-.260 because of it. But he won’t walk at any rate, and it’s harder to hit higher than that if you can’t lay off pitches and get counts in your favor with more frequency, and force those mistakes. And this is a problem up and down the lineup pre-returns of Altuve and Alvarez. Now, it’s kind of flipped back some with Bregman, Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker and Chas all in there most nights together. Even Abreu at times works that count and gets the pitch he wants, he just isn’t taking advantage with any frequency because his bat is slowed just a smidgen. And say what you want about Maldy, oof, he is a really bad hitter. Shouldn’t even be in the majors at this point. Strikes out WAY too much. But he doesn’t chase alot. His o-swing rates are not over 40%. Jeremy Pena is at 39.9%. Yes, he swings out of the strike zone MORE than Maldy. Yainer is at 46%!. It’s a problem for this team.
They don’t ever have enough baserunners. Pena, Diaz, Julks, Maldy, Dubon, these guys have gotten a lot of at bats while sitting FAR below major league average OBP’s. They can hit; not taking that away. They have big moments. But they are also the reason behind a lot of 4 to 1 losses. It’s not a consistent way to score runs. Their bats can certainly take off and lead us to a 13-5 win or 9-7 win like Meyers did last game, but the frequency of 0-4 with no walks and 2 K’s the next day gets us. Every player has those days; the question is how many times do you see something like the other day with Tucker drawing multiple walks in the game, so that even if he doesn’t hit, he helps that day. Chas did it the other day too. More of that, less of these other guys doing nothing if they don’t hit that day at all. That is what Singleton is about, a lefty bat that can do that even if he doesn’t get a hit that day.
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In Yainer’s last 48 games, 41 starts, he’s hit as follows:
.297 BA/.313 OBP/.587 SLG
11 doubles, 13 homers, 30 RBI, 142 wRC+
That’s the highest catcher wRC+ in the AL, minimum 150 PA’s
And that’s against lefties, that includes PH and DH BA’s.
It also deserves to be repeated what he’s done at the plate when catching:
.336/.359/.655/1.014
Remarkable stats that are not being exploited.
Steven, if you watt see Singleton getting 5 days a week his playing time should come at the expense of the 19.5 million guy, or, the worst hitter in the American League.
Or else we simply continue to ignore the stats above and toss the season. I’m almost ready to accept that if it would guarantee a new guy in the dugout next season.
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One clarification. That 142 wRC+ from Diaz is best in the AL during that 48 game time frame.
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UK (daveB) – I think you are forgetting about motivation here. If you go to baseball-reference you can see that the Astros are 35-34 in games that Diaz played while 43-39 in games that Maldy played. So Maldy is better…..
However, Diaz’s number for games he starts (at any position) is 34-23. They are 1-11 when he comes in late for a single at bat.
So, if your motivation is to win then you go with Diaz.
But if your motivation is to show everyone how much smarter than everyone you are including the President (and who wouldn’t be) – then you say screw you – I am untouchable and I will stick with my old school ways no matter what it does to the team.
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I think we are in agreement that Diaz should be playing and Maldy should not.
That isn’t our decision or the decision of every writer or commenter at Houston sportsmap, crawfish boxes, Killer B’s podcast, chipalatta, or any other place. That decision belongs to the one guy on the planet left that believes in Martin Maldonado. Unfortunately for us, that is all Maldy needs, that one guy (and maybe a few veteran pitchers).
This team would be at its best (offensively) if Yordan were in LF, Chas in CF, Diaz at C, and Singleton getting a shot to DH. But how often are we going to see that combination? Not enough, unfortunately for us fans.
When I point that Yainer is at 46% chase rate – I do it with the full understanding that this guy presses because he is trying to prove he deserves playing time. We know he is Altuve level aggressive but some of that may temper if he knows what to expect playing time wise. It’s a tough spot for him to be in. I think he could have EASILY been the ROY, and hit .290 with 25 HR as a pretty good defensive catcher if he was left alone to do it. And I am being conservative at .290. I think he has batting title potential.
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Guys, like I said above, I’m resigned to the possibility that Baker will be allowed to toss the season by ignoring reality. He’s been doing it all year.
And my guess is that he’ll want to be back next year, regardless of this seasons outcome. He’s got supporters in the clubhouse. Maybe Verlander too. But for how long? I’m sure JV likes throwing to Maldy, but he’d pitch to anyone if it increased his chance to win. I also wonder if Frenchy is really Verlander’s CF. That could also be a Dusty invention. And how many guys quietly have nothing to say about their manager? Most.
So maybe Brown and Crane feel like they’ve got to let things run their course.
They don’t need cries of Baker being disrespected this winter when it’s time to chart the path forward.
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Grayson Rodriguez, the Orioles’ starter tonight, was born in Houston and played high school ball for Central Heights in Nacogdoches. He was the O’s #1 pick in the 2018 draft. He absolutely cruised through the minors [12.8 K/9; .0966 WHIP; 2.40 ERA], but in his first few MLB games he has been erratic. He’ll probably be pretty fired up to face his ‘home town/home state’ team – and he’s the kind of guy we have historically made to look like Cy Young.
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