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Ho-hum! Astros trade for Justin Verlander again

Pardon me if the news of the Justin Verlander trade (JV and $52.5 MM coming to Houston / OF Prospects Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford going to the Mets) just seems too mundane to me…..Well, c’mon nothing will ever replace the original in my psyche.   The Verlander trade: Jeff Luhnow’s finest moment – CHIPALATTA

Yes, this is great and what I wanted to have happen, but doesn’t this feel like David Lee Roth returning to Van Halen? Or is it Sammy Hagar heading back one more time? Or was it Van Hagar?

There are major differences between that trade in the last minutes before the trade deadline on August 30, 2017, and this one, a few hours short of the trade deadline on August 1, 2023.

  • The Astros in 2017 were comfortably on their way to the playoffs and comfortably on the way to winning their division with a 11-1/2 game lead. This season, the Astros are uncomfortably not a sure thing for the playoffs and uncomfortably not a sure thing to win the AL West Division.
  • The move in 2017 was hoped to be the impetus to put them over the top on the way to their first World Series Championship. The move in 2023 is hoped to get them into the playoffs, at which point anything is possible.
  • The Astros in 2017 had never won a championship and had only made the World Series once in their history. Today’s Astros are two-time champions and have appeared in the ALCS a record 6 times in a row.
  • The Astros in 2017 were hoping to find a veteran pitcher who could lead them deep into the playoffs. This time they have a number of pitchers who were there just last year.  
  • The 2017 trade was at the now non-existent waiver trade deadline at the end of August. This trade is at the traditional end-of-July deadline. Back in 2017, it took a lot of complaining by the veterans after no significant moves at the regular deadline, plus poor performance in August, to drive the team to a trade.

There are some similarities between the two situations:

  • There were questions about trading for such an “old” pitcher (34 years old) in 2017, and frankly, now there are more questions about trading for a 40-year-old.
  • In 2017, after having been in the Cy Young conversation in 2015 and 2016, Verlander was good, but his 3.82 ERA was a bit pedestrian by his standards. In 2023, there are questions about him after he missed the first 5 weeks of the season with an injury, and his ERA is a very good 3.15, but not that All-Galaxy 1.75 he posted in 2022 with the Astros.
  • There is always a bit of hand-wringing when these multi-prospect trades occur for an older veteran. OF Drew Gilbert (#1) and OF Ryan Clifford (#4) are two of the top 5 prospects out of the current ranking of Astros’ prospects being sent to the Mets today. Back in 2017, both P Franklin Perez and OF Daz Cameron were considered top 10 prospects of the Astros, with C Jake Rogers a bit farther down the line.

But let’s just take a fresh look at this. To your fine servant, Dan P, this seems like a good deal for the Astros. Why?

  • Just like in 2017, the team seems to need a kick in the butt trade that will get their mojo working, and as most of us recall, the 2017 team, which was playing below .500 at the deadline, started on a roll after the trade and before Verlander even pitched in a game.
  • The two players being traded while fine prospects are just that – prospects. And possibly of importance is the fact that they were not drafted by Dana Brown, so he has no emotional attachment to “his” guys involved.
  • The money being sent the Astros’ way is not insignificant. Justin Verlander is owed approximately $14 MM for the rest of 2023, $43.3 MM for 2024 and if he pitches 140 innings in 2024, Verlander can opt-in for another $35 MM in 2025.  If Verlander only pitches through 2024, the Mets will pay $35 MM of that approx. $57 MM – meaning the Astros get Verlander for a season and a third for about $22 MM. If his option kicks in, the Mets will pay half of 2025, which means the Astros will get him for $17.5 MM for that extra year. This is quite palatable since it is not Dan P’s money. But it is also a lot less than the Astros were planning on paying JV during the last off-season (though more years).

Making this deal should really help the team both in the regular season and the playoffs without tying the budget up in a giant knot.

So, maybe I am not so hohum about this. Go ‘Stros.

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59 responses to “Ho-hum! Astros trade for Justin Verlander again”

  1. I love it! I feel reinvigorated. Of course, I’m not playing and I’m not paying, so there is that.
    I’m hoping the Astros players feel the way I do.

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  2. One other positive factor that you didn’t mention is the leadership factor. I’m hoping that JV can influence some of the younger pitchers (freaked out Framber, I’m looking at you!) to better keep their heads in the right place when crunch time comes around.
    Even if Justin doesn’t do anything overt to have that effect, some of it should come through simply by osmosis.

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  3. On another, less positive note, no Yordan in the lineup tonight? Hasn’t he been idle enough lately? I hope this isn’t a more ominous sign that our so-called manager just giving him a day off he shouldn’t need.

    Speaking of things we don’t need, MaldoNADA is back in the 9 hole again. So we’re handicapped somewhat before the game evens begins.

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  4. JV pitched on Sunday – so I wonder if we see him Thursday or Friday in NYC.
    – I know they said when they activated Yordan that they would have some set days for him to be off – so even though he had the huge home run last night – a decision is a decision and we cannot question any decisions
    – Diaz just can’t compare to the wonderfulness that is Maldy – it screws up the top of the order if they have to bat with someone on base, this is kind of like clearing the pallet you know – empty the bases before Altuve bats….

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  5. “…a decision is a decision and we cannot question any decisions.”

    I forgot. You don’t know me very well yet! Tell me that was sarcasm, Dan.

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  6. I don’t know how much Jim Crane was involved in getting Verlander back, but Dana Brown deserves some credit for completing a couple of significant deals in his first deadline effort. James Click is still helping the Astros too. His draft picks. And I’m sure he’s following Yainer Diaz.

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    • I’m watching. Looks like no longer being called the “ace” has come as a relief to him. Freaky Framber actually looks like he belongs in the big leagues tonight.

      But I’m still concerned about him in a really big game. After last year’s experience, his oh so fragile psyche shouldn’t be so delicate. I hope JV can help him with that.

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  13. It’s now obvious why we needed another starting pitcher. Poor effort from our supposed ‘ace’ ….. Faced 27 batters and only got 27 outs. Even I could’ve done better than that.

    PS watched most of game in a Houston Sports Bar. Was rooted to my seat.

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  15. Great game from Framber. Hope the momentum continues.

    Nightengale reported the Mets were on the hook for 64 million and the Astros would basically be paying JV 29 million for 2 and 1/3rd seasons (I’m not completely sure Bob used a calculator). If I was a Mets fan the pitchforks would be out; Scherzer and Verlander are going to cost that team north 100 million to NOT pitch for them. The GM of the Mets is making fans want Steve Phillips back. At this point they should hope Gilbert becomes a hall of famer.

    You can see 5 forks in the road on how this deal will be looked at 5 years down the road. This team was already flirting with the luxury tax line for 2024. They may end up living a season over it, though Brantley being off the books should help.

    Sportrac is showing 189M in salary commitments towards the 2024 payroll – but it is not including Tucker and Valdez, both of whom are in Arb 2 and Arb 3 so pay raises are coming. You also got some 1st year arby guys (mmmm we have the beef) that are going to inch it closer. I thought Graveman was a rental; turns out not to be the case. He and JV are counting 28M towards the 2024 cap.

    The Astros probably have the ability to stretch out Tucker or Valdez now if they can – Valdez will be tricky, there is only 1 year of arbitration left – any deal is probably a high AAV. Tucker, with the two arby years to buy out, could see something like Yordan where there will be some 30M + years in there but because of the arby the AAV is a bit more manageable.

    And all of this happens before you even consider Altuve and Bregman. I bet Dana has flowcharts in his office, “If player A does this and player B does this we can do this with player C, but if player A does this instead player D is in play here…..” What a job.

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    • Steven – per baseball reference – Framber and Tucker are the same – they have two more seasons of arb and are FAs in 2026. Spotrac shows the same. So that is good news I think.

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    • I don’t look for the team to resign Bregman. Altuve will be offered a contract because he is almost a lock to be a HOF, ala Biggio and Bagwell.

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    • Steven, looking at the Mets blog yesterday, the customers over there actually seemed pretty okay with the two old guys leaving for a bunch of prospects. They knew the Mets were cooked for 2023 and likely next year too. So they see it as a 100 million spent to buy prospects. Of course I’ll be interested to see what our two guys from the 2022 draft do going forward. But I’m coming around. If Verlander stays healthy and tightens up the rotation, taking a bit of the burden off the pen, it’s a good deal for us in 2023 and hopefully 2024.

      As far as the make up our team goes as we extend and let guys move on, we’ve been through it. And I’m sure Brown is not planning on a rebuild. I’ll start thinking more about all the options as soon as the season is over.

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      • It could be argued that Verlander’s presence hurts the pen. Urquidy is going to start. So is Valdez. So is Javier. So is Brown. So is France. Brown was coy when asked about a 6 man rotation on air last night but it seems to be the way it’s going. Until 1 September that means 1 less reliever. He is probably more reliable than Brown or Javier to get 6 innings right now but the 6/7 split instead of 5/8 might not be better for the pen specifically.

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      • I’m hoping the bullpen is better with Graveman added into the mix and frankly with Montero pitching better lately (2.31 ERA in July).

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  16. So, was the no-hitter because…..
    – Framber made up with his therapist?
    – Framber was trying to show his teammates how sorry he was for his sucky recent performances?
    – Framber didn’t want to hand the “ace” title to JV the moment he enters the clubhouse?
    – Framber wanted to become the first Astros lefty to throw a no-hitter, to be the first Astro to throw a no-no in 27 at bats (helped by one DP) and wanted to do it in the least number of pitches by an Astro?

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    • From a technical standpoint, Framber seemed to go back to being Framber again. He was not throwing 98. He had great control of his breaking stuff. And he did get some swings from a compromised lineup. I was more concerned about 2 runs being enough than the no no honestly.

      I think Framber can still be prone to losing his composure. But having Verlander around can’t hurt. Framber does not need to worry about being number one. Maybe he does not need that burden.

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    • I have no way to get into his head and wouldn’t really want to even if I did. So I haven’t a clue why it happened. I just enjoyed the heck out of it when it did happen.
      Like uncleknuckle, I wasn’t even thinking about it being a no hitter until the end of the 7th. I was more concerned abut having only 2 runs and a very leaky bullpen.
      Hopefully those guys enjoyed their rest day and got some inspiration from seeing that good things happen when you throw strikes early and often and start picking up the habit.

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  17. * Verander waived his no trade clause to come back to Houston. That tells me quite a bit about him and the Astros.
    * I repeat: The Scherzer trade was the pattern that established the money in the Verlander trade. That told the Astros that they could now afford the guy that they wanted.
    * After trading Gilbert and Clifford, the Astros still have 11 OF prospects in on their Top 30 list and that does not include any of the 2023 draft picks. They drafted two 18 year old HS outfielders in the 11th and 12th rounds and then went over slot to sign them.
    * I don’t know how Verlander’s trade affected Valdez last night, but I do know the Astros have the same rotation now that they won the world series with in 2022.

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  18. Is Kessinger a super deluxe dire emergency starter only? 3 starts in July, I think the last one on the 22nd. Julks got 20 starts in July and we know what he has not done since the 19th.

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  19. Now we return to our regularly scheduled clown show with Blanco pretending to be a Major League pitcher. We hope you enjoyed our interlude of real baseball.
    But at least MaldoNADA isn’t playing. Not that he ever really does……

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  21. Chas. Again.
    By the way, that guy Valentine behind the plate has called the worst two innings of any ump on the season. And worse is that he’s only been terrible against one team.

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    • Agreed. He’s starting to make Angel Hernandez look good. I’m normally a technology resister. About 3.3 Megohms.
      But I really do think the time for robo umpires is here. This is beyond ridiculous.

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  22. Chas does what Chas does and makes it 2-2. Julks continues to struggle mightily and still gets stuck out there most every day. I hope the young man turns it around really soon.

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    • You know Dan, Julks entered todays game with a .315 BABip. This correction was way overdue. Maybe he should go down in favor of a lefty outfield bat.

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  24. Somebody explain to me why we always hear about some guy getting a day off to rest them up but Bregman and Abreu have played in 108 and 105 games out of 109. They also are hitting .253 and .241. Abreu also struck out 3 times today. Good pitching today, even with nervous Blanco out there. A tie for 1st so we’ll see what the Rangers do.
    Tough road trip coming up so time to put the pedal to the metal.

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    • Z, I’ll give you an example as to why it makes zero sense to frustrate ourselves with such questions and unhealthy thoughts.

      Corey Julks is 3 for 45 since the All Star break for an .067 average. Jake is 9 for 30, hitting an even .300 since the break.

      Why is the far superior fielder, finally hitting the ball, playing so much less than the mediocre defender in worst slump of any Astro on the season?

      Heck, get Jake out there with Chas. Chas does not mind moving over to left. And seriously, consider sending Corey Julks down and bringing up Dirden or Loperfido. We have no lefty bat on the bench. Maybe Brown knows this would infuriate Baker. That’s all I can think of.

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  25. A win is a win…….

    But if I had to guess, Frenchy was out late last night with the boys in celebration of Framber’s no no. He couldn’t catch a cold out there today. And while in slumber, he was picked off first by a wide margin before Tucker’s two out double that would have scored him.

    Party is over for awhile now. We’re getting into the dog days of an especially hot summer. It’s time to play good baseball everyday. Management came through with real help for the stretch run. It’s the players job now. We can’t count on the manager.

    Formally part time Chas lifted the team up. Part time Yainer guided six pitchers through what essentially turned out to be a bullpen game and added two hits, plus a bullet to third that got caught.

    I’m looking forward to the coming battle with the Rangers.

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  28. It worked,lol.
    Excellent gm Framber. We got some P reinforcements. Great! There is no L bat coming so perhaps Julks need a visit to the farm to regain his stroke and they send up a L (if we have one capable and ready).

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  30. Chas has to be exhausted. He’ll probably get to rest tomorrow.
    Altuve sits and his replacement does everything possible to blow that game.
    It’s a win but it feels like getting caught in the rain and still feeling dirty.

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    • Good way to describe it, 1OP. The way it looks to me, the next 3-4 weeks are going to be some rather tough sledding for our boys. Mostly good teams on their schedule for August while the Rangers will be squaring off against mostly scrubs. Gonna be a rough stretch.

      Especially since our most formidable opponents are either wearing blue behind the plate or an Astros uni chewing toothpicks.

      Gonna have to play a lot better baseball than they did today. Dubon looked like a Special Olympics Girl Scout out there. We were lucky to get out of that one with a W.

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  31. I DVR’d the gm to watch late. The tm has eked out some wins against pedestrian pitching in Clev. Can’t complain about the wins but was aghast by the # of rallies killed last night. OP Chas might be exhausted but some of the batters should be exhausted from not hitting.
    This lineup as constructed runs 8 deep. Could truly go 8 deep if you know who squats behind the dish more often. This tm has a very formidable lineup with a few holes and the bench is hit challenged. Alleviating some of the holes should be a work in progress.
    During the Clev series Tuv bunts for a hit/steals a bases/took 3 walks in one gm (Pena 2 & Breg) Abreu takes a walk. They took advantage of wild pitches and so on, putting pressure on the opposing off and created opportunities to score. I hope we see more of the same moving forward. They are gonna need it.

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  32. Unfortunately, pretty good chance that Diaz will have to sit tonight, as Maldy will be behind plate and with the big outfield in NY, Yordan might well be our DH.

    I’m not worried about playing good teams on the road. We’re pretty good in these situations. Give me a win tonight in the first game of the 4 game set. Then at least a split is expected. I think we need a big weekend from Jose Abreu. I say that because I don’t want to see him going the wrong way again.

    And the Rangers have been trying to shake the Astros for months. They won’t. But they also won’t fall out of it. This will be a very entertaining, but sometimes frustrating couple of months of baseball. I think I’ve already made that point.

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  33. These are some of my random thoughts thrown in here because of a big, last-minute family gathering that has appeared out of the blue this weekend.
    I think the Astros bailed from trading for a LH bat because they are hoping for the possibility of a) Brantley being made available for DH/PH duty for the end of the year and the playoffs. I also think: b) they might consider Singleton to provide a LH bat and a reasonable LH alternative as a PH/DH/1B, as he has crushed the ball in Sugarland since he arrived.
    The Astros are allowed two sept callups, putting a limit of 14 pitchers and 14 position players for the remainder of the season. They then must have only 26 players for the pl;ayoff roster.
    Javier and Brown will start the first two games of the NYY series and the weekend starters have not been announced.

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  34. If Chas played all his games in CF, his .922 OPS would lead all CFs in the majors. Time for another nutty song:

    Deep down in Pennsylvania, north of New Jersey
    Way back up in his neighborhood among the evergreens
    There stood a modern house made of wood and concrete
    Where lived a city boy named Chazzy McC
    Who never ever learned to play Nintendo so well
    But he could swing the bat just like a-ringin’ a bell

    Go, go
    Go, Chazzy, go, go
    Go, Chazzy, go, go
    Go, Chazzy, go, go
    Go, Chazzy, go, go
    Chazzy McC

    He used to carry his bat in a gunny sack
    Go hang out ‘neath the trees by the railroad track
    Oh, the engineers would see him hittin’ in the shade
    Launchin’ rocks with the rhythm that the drivers made
    People passing by, they would stop and say
    “Oh my, but that little city boy could play”

    Go, go
    Go, Chazzy, go, go
    Go, Chazzy, go, go
    Go, Chazzy, go, go
    Go, Chazzy, go, go
    Chazzy McC

    His mother told him, “Someday you will realize a dream
    And you will be the leader of a big ol’ team
    Many people coming from miles around
    To watch you play your game when the sun go down
    Maybe someday your name will be in lights
    Saying “Chazzy be great tonight”

    Go, go
    Go, Chazzy, go
    Go, go, go, Chazzy, go
    Go, go, go, Chazzy, go
    Go, go, go, Chazzy, go
    Go
    Chazzy McC

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  35. I don’t know what to tell you about Julks.

    In the first half of the season 19.7% of his contact was considered “soft” contact. In July that rate fell to 14%.

    In the first half of the season 27% of his contact was considered “hard” contact. In July that rose to 35.1%.

    His exit velocities are actually higher in July than the first half. His line drive rate is better in July than the first half.

    The one thing I have seen change – his pull rate is down from 42% to 28%. His walk rates are up. He is swinging less out of the zone now than he was in the 1st half. Maybe we are seeing him, mid-season, try and reinvent himself as a guy that puts space between his OBP and AVG and it’s taken that aggressiveness away. I remember a game not too long ago where he literally hit 4 really hard, 90+ velo balls, right at people. The things are just adding up on him.

    I don’t ever understand an off day to a guy like Chas. He should be playing every day right now. Like literally if this team would just pencil in Yordan in LF, Chas in CF, and Tucker in RF they have the best outfield in baseball. Do it and leave them alone.

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