,

An Astros’ trade deadline what if…

Today let’s play a bit of a game about the Astros called what if.

What if…..

The Astros with the Kendall Graveman trade is done at the trade deadline and will not make a move to improve the rotation?

Positive – They believe that with Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, and J.P. France they have a good enough base for a run through the playoffs. They believe that Jose Urquidy is close to back and can be that fifth starter. They will not mortgage the future by ridding themselves of a slew of prospects for rentals or older guys with some control. They will not hamstring the team by taking on a salary that will negate off-season moves or the possibility of extending Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker.

Negative – The Astros’ top-of-the-rotation is fragile at best right now. Framber has melted down a couple times lately with only the AL West lead at stake. Can he be the ace/rock the Astros need to lead them to the promised land again? Javier looked better in his recent start, but before that had looked like someone who was melting under the pressure of his new contract. When Hunter Brown throws fifteen more innings, he will have gone past the most he has ever thrown in his college or combined minor league/ major league career in one season. What happens as he goes beyond that through the regular season and the potential playoffs.  Both the Angels and the Rangers, who they are fighting with the Astros for the AL West crown, have made significant moves already, with the Rangers’ pickup of both Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery giving the “arms” race a boost.

The Astros could definitely use a top-notch arm to offset those moves and to lead this pitching rotation for the foreseeable future. (We are talking Justin Verlander here).

What if……

The Astros with the Kendall Graveman trade is done at the trade deadline and will not make a move to improve the positional players?

Positive – This hopefully means they believe that Michael Brantley will return, because their biggest weakness would appear to be their over-the-top right-handedness. One more lefty to slip into the lineup other than Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker or to bring off the bench, would only intensify what had become a much deeper lineup with the return of Alvarez and Jose Altuve and the emergence of Chas McCormick and Yainer Diaz.

Negative – Anyone paying close attention will be able to interpret that Brantley’s situation continues in “shoulder still hurts” limbo. The team can be shut down by the right-handed hard slider stylings of any number of journeymen along the way. Barring Chas suddenly discovering that throwing left-handed means he can hit left-handed part-time too – it would be awfully nice to pick up a Brantley replacement…

What if……

The Astros with the Kendall Graveman trade are done at the trade deadline and will not make a move to improve the bullpen?

Positive – With Graveman taking his spot among the leveraged few, this should help with getting the bullpen a bit more rest, which feels like the biggest problem with pitchers like Ryan Pressly (don’t ask me about Rafael Montero). This allows Graveman to swap off appearances with Pressly, Bryan Abreu and/or Hector Neris and maybe cut back on the later usages of the overused Phil Maton or Ryne Stanek or Montero.

Negative – The Astros rolled to the 2022 championship on the back of a kick-butt performance by the bullpen. Even with Graveman in their back pocket, this bullpen is not ready to repeat that performance. Picking up another big arm, maybe even a (gasp!) lefty out of the bullpen, might help get this team another step down the road to the rare repeat, last achieved by the Yankees (spit!) in 1998-2000.

Your turn…what are your thoughts on these What Ifs…..?

 

←
→

62 responses to “An Astros’ trade deadline what if…”

  1. Who knows what Brown really wants to do? He’s made several conflicting statements. I think I prefer the tight lipped approach we’re all used to.

    If Dusty won’t put the best line up on the field, is it worth going out on a limb and getting a guy like Verlander, which will certainly result in the loss of one or more of our best prospects. We’ve already paid Verlander for almost two seasons away from the club. Remember? Who knows what happens to him in 2024 and 2025.

    Is he worth the risk for the balance of 2023? Not for me. We’re stuck with Baker until the season is over. I’d be okay with more help for the pen. Can Brown do that? I’d rather see what the guys we have now can pull off and then regroup for 2024. I think we can get into post season play. And who knows what happens once there.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

  2. Dan [and all] my thoughts are that nothing Dana Brown can do this year is going to make a tinker’s worth of difference to where – and when – this Astro team finishes its season. With or without any more trades, we are/will be neither the best team in the West nor the second best team. Breaking the bank – whatever bank is left – would be an exercise in futility. This team simply does not appear to have what it takes to repeat as World Champions in 2023. I personally blame a lot of this on Dusty Baker’s “I’m the man and I’ll do whatever I want to do just to prove nobody can touch me’ approach to the game. Last year the team we put on the field was so much better than any other team we played last yer that Dusty could have stayed home every night and drank wine while the guys played. We actually would have probably won a few more games than we did had he been absent. This year our talent advantage is gone. We are only decidedly better, player by player, position by position, pitcher by pitcher, than only one team in the MLB.

    After watching this franchise religiously – year-in, year-out – since ST 1962, I have seen Astro teams that were on the rise, Astro teams that were good but have plateaued, and Astro teams that were flagging and on the verge of collapse. This is just another ‘plateau’ team. Let the season play itself out, and see if the few real players we have coming up through the ranks – guys like Gilbert, Arighetti, Lopefido, Durden and Dezenzo – can breathe some passion and life back into whatever the tired, aging veterans stick around for next year.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

  3. I want to be optimistic. We do have that intangible of having been there before and playoff experience but we need to start showing it. Not up for mortgaging the future of this team. It’s going to be hard enough getting by all of the road blocks (both inside and outside the organization) so time to pull up those big boy pants and get with the program.
    There’s nothing any of us can do about our manager situation and who he plays or doesn’t and the line ups he comes up with so I guess we’ll have to live with it hoping that those players in the line up can pull us through.
    We’re only a game out of 1st so it’s still possible to run off a 10 game winning streak and get us back where we belong. Otherwise keep winning so at least we get a wild card berth but I prefer the former.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  4. What if:
    The Astros were to pick up Jake Cousins off waivers from the Brewers to shore up AAA pitching staff because they want to bring up a pitcher from there to the big club.
    Or, if somebody asked for a AAA pitcher from us in a trade for a player to add to the Astros and we picked up Cousins to add to our farm club to take the place of the player we traded.
    I can play What If!

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    • What if we are unable to pick up Cousins off waivers because we won the World Series and everybody else gets a shot before we do???

      Like

      Reply

      • What if the Astros did a deal for Aaron Civale? The Rays just gave up a second round pick for him, a solid AAA prospect but a guy who has struggled somewhat this year after a bunch of great offensive minor league showings. And Civale has never been able to make more than 21 starts in a season. I guess my point, again, is it worth the cost of likely two of our younger prospects for a Civale type guy? I don’t think so.

        Like

  5. Positional player? Why bother? Really, who is going to get brought in as a difference maker at what position? A lefty bat for the outfield? A lefty bat for short? Pena sits? No. Short of the Cubs changing theirs mind about Bellinger, is there a guy that Dusty would play everyday? Bring up Loperfido from CC. Get him in the mix. Left, center, right, first, even second base in pinch. Pinch run. Lefty bat off the bench. See if he’s ready to hit ML pitching. He does everything well. Let’s see if he can do it here. No loss of prospect.

    Like

    Reply

    • While it is unlikely Dusty would play an acquisition or a rookie over one of the “veterans” on the club with any regularity your comment is important because the postseason rules state a player must be on the 40 (or 60 if injured) roster by August 31st. That means if they want to get a look at a guy like Loperfido they’ll have to get it done in the next month at the expense of someone on the 40 man…but given the versatility I think it’s worth doing so.

      Like

      Reply

      • What is Spenser Webster still doing on the 40 man? Devin, we can make room at some point. And maybe our GM will make room in the next 24 hours!

        Like

  6. The playoffs are a crap shoot so it’s a bit odd when teams feel the need to make a huge trade. The Phillies proved last year that a barely above-average team can go on a run and luck into the World Series, and I believe the Astros can absolutely win with what they have on their roster…..just as long as they hold off the Los Angeles, Orange County, California, North America, Earth, Milky Way, Angels of Anaheim.

    Like

    Reply

    • Interesting – it may well be the Angels of Los Anaheimangeles that we have to hold back – though the A’s haven’t been eliminated yet? OK – not fair.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  7. The Astros were able to claim Jake Cousins off waivers from the Brewers and they DFA’d Blake Taylor to make room for Cousins on the 40-man. Then they optioned Cousins to Sugarland.

    Like

    Reply

  8. The Astros have optioned Bielak to Sugarland. He was yesterday’s starter. Matt Gage has been called up to add to the bullpen.
    Urquidy has been cleared to rejoin the team which he will do when he is announced as a starter against NY this weekend. When that happens, a reliever will probably be optioned to make room for Urquidy on the 26-man and a move will be required to remove Urquidy from the 60 day IL and add him back on the 40-man.

    Like

    Reply

  9. Great quote by Dusty Baker yesterday when asked about the Rangers loading up at the deadline. “lot of that stuff is not my decision…I do the best I can with what I’ve got”.

    Like

    Reply

      • Steven, not sure if you’re watching, but Diaz has just gone over 1.000 OPS when catching. And of course Chas sat tonight on the last day of the month when he’s in the running for Player of the Month. Reminds me a little bit of Dusty sitting him the first two games of the season. Those two guys are why I was being sarcastic with my earlier post from Dusty.

        Like

  10. He has a great team. At least he started with a great team. If this is the best he can do (and I’m willing to take his word that it is) it’s just more reason for him to go back to California and let the Astros get back to their winning ways.

    Like

    Reply

  11. Julks is DH. Not McCormick? Hmmmmmm……..

    Not saying anything else except the stats don’t support this. I wonder what does.

    Like

    Reply

    • I like Julks – I feel bad he is in such a big slump but he shouldn’t be playing in front of Chas that’s for sure.

      Like

      Reply

      • Julks could end up being a heckuva good player. But he’s not there yet. He needs to learn discipline at the plate first. McCormick has learned it already. Not like an old timer but certainly better than Julks. And the stats show it.

        In order to understand this move, one would have to think like Dusty the Clown. That’s not something I’m willing to do. Like I said, I like being clean and sober with my brain working at 100%……

        Like

      • Well, Chas certainly couldn’t have done much worse at DH tonight. Groundout, flyout, strikeout, sac fly.
        But Dusty still likes him for whatever reason about which I am not going to speculate here. So he’s got that going for him……

        Like

  13. “….the reigning AL Cy Young winner is certainly plenty familiar with Houston.”

    Which is precisely why I believe it won’t happen. Justin would have to be crazy to jump into what he has to know is coming in Houston at this stage of his career.

    Like

    Reply

  14. Good morning!
    Yainer has a 1.015 OPS as a hitter when catching. And a 1.152 in 3 games at first.
    Yordan turns the game around with his 3 run shot. Jason runs all over the place. Out real offensive motors are back. Jose will needle the crap out of any loafers out there.
    Stanek looks fat in that Space City uniform. Maybe the cold ones need to be rationed.
    If Framber gives us a nice smooth composed 7 innings tonight, we’ll be happy. If he freaks again, we won’t be very happy.
    I’d rather be the Astros than the Rangers right now.
    JP France is my Astro Play of the Month.

    Like

    Reply

  16. I really do go back and forth.

    If the Astros have the opportunity to add Verlander – and this isn’t a rental – they should consider it. There are a lot of factors. One – how much salary are the Mets willing to eat? Second – what’s the asking price? If you can deal with a combination that is in moderation I think you do it. It’s not really about what JV brings to the table in the playoffs, particularly a WS, we all have seen first hand his playoff meltdowns. But he can’t have a playoff melt down if you are not in the playoffs. Every starter in the rotation is WELL over a 4 ERA since June 1st except JP. After a great start even Framber and Javier have hit some skids. We keep trotting out Bielek and Blanco and expect to win a division.

    The real prize would be Rodriguez. He is almost certainly going to be dealt today and signed through 2026. That should be priority over Verlander. The asking price on a 30 year old lefty with years of success and a moderate contract for what you can expect to get that has team control for the next 2 years after this one will be pricey. But again, it’s no rental. If it costs you Gilbert and 2 other minor leaguers so be it.

    If the Astros don’t make a move they are telling me they think 4 guys with an ERA over 4 in the last 2 months are going to get back to doing what they were earlier – in a spot where 4 of the 5 starters will eclipse their career high in innings in a season before we even get to real stretch through September. They are telling me they think Urquidy is going to the difference. He will be a difference; he just isn’t the difference.

    I would agree that a rotation of Valdez-Javier-Brown-France-Urquidy gives you a chance to win every day. No Blancos, no Bieleks. But they are all young, prone to melt downs, and they keep stress on the bullpen. And will they all stay healthy at their current loads?

    Right now, everyone should just thank whatever thing you thank when you are thankful that JP France came along. We might be 4 or 5 games out right now without that guy.

    We say time and time again that offenses can win a game but pitching wins pennants. I am frustrated that Dusty took away Yainer’s chance at a ROY. I am frustrated that Chas continues to sit games behind Meyers. I am frustrated that Abreu, even if he has been OK for last 6 weeks, plays with a iron clad X next to his name, you will sit Chas and his .898 OPS, but Abreu and his .657 is protected? This guy makes no sense. But in the end, it is, and always has been, about the pitching. So for Dana to say they aren’t in the market for a starter tells me that in his discussions with Detroit and New York that the asking price is crazy.

    Like

    Reply

    • And I have to edit my own post – stay away from Rodriguez – this is the kind of deal that works against you. I didn’t realize he had an opt out for the end of this season – which he will certainly exercise unless he gets hurt in the next 2 months. That opt out makes him a pure rental – really the worst kind of rental because if something goes south he could be on your books for the next 2 years. His teammate Lorenzen is a pure rental but we should not be including premium prospects for pure rentals. If we can swoop in on either of them for practically nothing its worth it but every franchise is going to try and do that.

      So we are back to JV.

      Like

      Reply

      • This is what makes all these trade deadlines such an interesting and in some ways nutsy time, Steven. There are risks everywhere, there are options everywhere, there are competitors for the same players, there is valuation of your prospects, there are opt outs and player options and team options and many many many millions of dollars involved.

        Like

  17. I made it a point during the 2023 offseason that JP France was way underrated because of the volatility of altitude-stimulated ERAs in the PCL and I named him specifically as the next-man-up for 2023.
    He has not been a surprise to me as far as being a major league pitcher, but his stamina has been a pleasant surprise.
    Dana Brown came to us from an organization that develops starting pitchers in their organization (Kyle Wright, Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder) and I hope he can do further good here in Houston in that area.
    Arrighetti and Colton Gordon are a couple of guys showing potential to be major league starters if they continue to improve.

    Like

    Reply

    • I for one am sure glad you were right about France. Back to the team, this feels a lot like 2016 where everyone knew we needed a starter and they stood firm hoping that getting back some injured players would carry them through. The difference is that I still expect us to pass the Rangers and win the division despite their continued spending…but I agree with the other commenters who don’t feel great about our chances in the postseason. I would really hate to part with Chas or any reasonable prospects for an arm that’s not a clear difference maker. Also, I don’t begrudge Verlander taking the money in NY…but I would be pretty unhappy if the Astros got stuck taking on his 2024-25 salaries without major relief from Cohen.

      Like

      Reply

    • 1OP, I recollect that early discussion. I still look at his minor league stats and I scratch my head. The experts have reinvented the guy. The formula is all different. He averaged 11.1 K’s per nine in his minor league career. 6.3 with the Astros. And his walks are way down. That’s how we’re getting 7 innings out of JP. As Dan noted earlier, I love the poise. He’s at 110 plus innings on the season at this point. 114 is his career max. Is he getting stronger, or does he hit the wall soon?

      Like

      Reply

      • I’ve always thought as France as a marginally good stuff guy. 94, two other pitches, no incredibly devious out pitch, just good. I thought that when I looked at his numbers. I also remember saying in March he should be the 7th guy in the mix, but I was more worried about the 8th and 9th guys (which ended up being Bielek and Blanco).

        I think good stuff guys get here, and don’t trust their stuff quite enough, so they don’t like to nibble, and they don’t always attack. I feel like his K/9 will climb as he becomes more comfortable in his routines and trusts that he can’t hit those corners a little more.

        Minor leaguers strike out a lot. I was looking at baseball reference the other day just perusing our minor league pitching, and half of them are 10+ K/9. It’s not as crazy to have 11+ anymore.

        Whats surprised me has been his command. He really is throwing those out of the zone pitches close enough to tempt hitters into hitting his pitches. Yesterdays game was just full of low curve balls that Indians (oops) were in love with. He got some hard hit balls but he had them out of the sweet spots so Tucker was busy in right field flagging down not quite elevated enough line drives. It was a thing of beauty. Last night was a pitching clinic of what a pitcher that knows who he is and pitches to it. 7 IP, just shy of 100 pitches, just well done.

        As noted, at 28, he is not a typical rookie. He comes with some built in composure, he handled the “finally got a shot” perfectly. Just a great guy to have.

        Like

  18. I find it fascinating when someone like France is a surprise prospect – he is not the 21 year old flash that gets the hype. He’s a mature adult at 28 – he’s older than Tucker, Yordan, Peña, Javier and on and on.
    I wish we could have him give Framber a poise transfusion.

    Like

    Reply

  19. Saw where the Orioles are on the periphery of the JV trade discussions.
    They definitely have a deeper prospect pool to pull from and can absorb more of his salary if that is what they want to do.

    Like

    Reply

  21. I did want to give old pro kudos for predicting the Cousins waiver pickup. I was surprised he made it all the way through to us.
    Now we will see if Blake Taylor clears waivers.

    Like

    Reply

    • Dan, I clicked on the the Cousin’s story about thirty seconds after MLBTR did a preliminary 2 sentence announcement on it. You had just posted your trade post and I ran a tongue-in-cheek prediction about it. No brilliant insight, just some fun.
      This slow deadline is a direct result of all the inflated long-term contracts given out in the last few years, by the way. The top 3 teams in current payroll are a combined $247 million over the luxury tax line and are a combined 9 games over .500.

      Like

      Reply

  22. For the next five hours or so, the best kept secret will the one where the names of the clubs Verlander has or hasn’t given permission to be traded to. The Mets absolutely don’t want that out there so they could try to gain a last minute concession from some team.
    The Padres’ acquisition of Rich Hill could be one clue toward solving the Verlander mystery.

    Like

    Reply

  23. Mark Feinsand says the Astros and Mets were close to a Verlander deal last night but that things have cooled down today. He said the hangup is the players to be sent to NY, not the financial element. I take this to mean that the Astros have made their offer and the Mets will try to get the Astros to up their offer.
    There is a lot riding on this. The Mets are going to go hard for Ohtani. Convince me that the sport’s richest owner isn’t going after the sport’s most prized free agent. Shedding Verlander and Scherzer help out in that quest. I see war between the Dodgers and the Mets for Shohei.

    Like

    Reply

  24. I’m impressed by our little group here. I have not seen a bunch, or even a few suggestions as to what guys would be needed to pry Verlander away from the Metropolitans. Looking across the way, I see all the usual suspects being offered; any number of guys from our batch of outfield prospects, but then I get queasy when Brown and Chas and Loperfido and Gordon and Arrighetti are being packaged up in various ways.

    For the record, I’m still firmly convinced that Verlander coming back is not the answer. I hope Dana gets another pitcher, using a Jake or a Julks and one of our top outfield prospects. But I’m ready to continue the battle with our other guys.

    Like

    Reply

      • We’ve got one “reporter” saying it’s Gilbert and Loperfido. We’ve got another saying it’s Gilbert and Ryan Clifford. No one is saying anything about how much money we’re getting back…but I sure hope it’s sizeable.

        Like

  27. Well, after initially hearing that it was Gilbert and Loperfido, it seems now that it’s Gilbert and Clifford. Plenty of unhappy people out there. I can’t condemn this trade, but I not have made it. Clifford seems to be the biggest loss. Anyway, I’m hoping Dana gets us another pitcher that make sense in the next couple of hours.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  28. I’m up and down. He should be helpful for the post season run. In the end, Clifford and Gilbert could be major leaguers, could be neither are. You know JV is.

    I haven’t seen the financials. Just from a player stand point this is a win. JV is better than anything else we could have put in that place right now internally. The team is better than it was an hour ago. It allows a push back to a 6 man rotation to put more space in the starts of these young guys that are approaching inning career highs. It gives another bonafide number 1 to make 6-7 starts in a playoff push where every start matters.

    2025 could be a problem. It’s not time to worry about that. Right now it’s time to see if this team can get Framber and Javier right, if JV can be successful enough in the playoffs, who is going to be that 4th starter, and if Dusty can be hypnotized into writing the names “McCormick” and “Diaz” more than he writes the names “Maldonado” and “Meyers.”

    Like

    Reply

  29. I’m up and down.

    The Astros are better than they were yesterday for the rest of this year. That is mostly what this deal is about. Arguably they are better next year too – but if the arms are all healthy it’s going to be a crowded starters room.

    The financials could be a nightmare. Not everyone will survive. Who is still here in 2025, who is not, this deal will impact a lot of that.

    Crane has his golfing buddy back.

    Now if we could get Baker a hynotist that teaches him to write “Diaz” everytime he means to write “Maldonado” and “McCormick” everytime he means write “Meyers” its playoff push time.

    Like

    Reply

  30. OK. I’ll be the first to admit I was wrong re: JV coming back to the Stros. Good on ya, GM Brown. I hope (and am pretty sure) it will help. A lot. It may not get them all the way to a WS. But it will be nice to not see Bielak and Blanco making a dog’s lunch of it out there anymore.
    France was (is) a very good surprise. I look forward to seeing him deal gems for Houston for a long time.
    Now if we only had a bullpen that could get batters out and a manager who would put the best players in the lineup despite his personal prejudices, we could get back to being a championship team.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  31. I would not be surprised to see the Astros go to a six man rotation to keep the starters fresher.
    The Astros need to win their division and get a bye in the first round. Then they will choose their rotation for the playoffs with the other starters moving to the pen. That is how you make a great playoff bullpen.
    Now that I have seen the financial input from the Mets on this deal I think it helps the Astros a lot for Verlander’s tenure.
    I thought the Mets would want Chas and Arrigetti. The players that we traded seems like a fair trade for Upton/Verlander.

    Like

    Reply

  33. Gosh, the Mets paid more of Verlander’s salary than I thought they would. In simple terms, Verlander replaces Bielak. That sure makes us better today. For this deal to be a good one, we need health from Verlander now and through 2024. We’ll find out down the road what happens with Clifford and Gilbert. I can’t argue with the way this has turned out so far. And I’m all for a 6 man.

    I’m sure we’ll soon delve into who we can and can’t afford to extend going forward. But we want to win a game tonight, I guess with our big man getting a scheduled day off.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    • Hopefully, the trading away of Clifford and Gilbert indicates that there’s an intention to extend Tucker at the end of the season. Or before.

      Like

      Reply

  36. Really surprised at “The Trade”. Obviously Crane and Brown have decided that to get back to the WS they needed to make this trade. Hard to say if the price of giving up Gilbert and Clifford will be worth it but that won’t be known for a few years down the road. I would think that there is now a better chance to sign Tucker because we gave up two potential future outfielders. Love to make Tucker a permanent Astro. Looks like Chaz will now be the everyday center fielder (Dusty are you listening). Hey since JV likes Maldy they can make him his personal catcher and plays Diaz on all other days (Dusty?).
    We shall see…..

    Like

    Reply

Leave a comment