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Astros Head to the Second Half (More or Less)

The All Star break has always been considered the halfway point in the baseball season. Even when you go into baseballreference.com and pull a split on a player’s stats – the first half is before the All Star break and the second half stats are after the break.

But over the years, the All Star break has slid to the right, as we folks in the engineering scheduling world call it to the point that the Astros have played 91 games before the break and have another 71 games to go – so they are really at the 56% mark with about 44% to go. Not way off the middle, but enough that you can’t double things to project to the end of the season.

So, what are critical items for the Astros as they navigate the last 44% of the season?

They Need Jose Altuve back

Sure, that Yordan what’s his name would be good to get back too, but surprisingly, or maybe not so surprisingly, Altuve makes a bigger difference as far as offense goes (based on small samples). In the 32 games Altuve played this season, the Astros averaged 5.16 runs per game and in the 59 other games they only averaged 4.27 runs per game. For the 57 games with Yordan Alvarez the Astros averaged 4.61 runs per game while only dropping to 4.53 runs per game without him. Of course, some of the players like Jose Abreu were doing practically nothing offensively until Yordan was gone.

But from a win standpoint, the Astros were slightly better without Altuve (31-28) than without Alvarez (17-17). Surprisingly, in the piddle of 13 games that both players were in together – the team only averaged 4.31 runs per game with both of them in the lineup, but put up a strong 9-4 record in those games.

One way or the other, you have to believe that from a morale standpoint, having a healthy Altuve and Alvarez in that top three or four in the lineup just makes this team so much better.

They Need Cristian Javier “back”

This is simple. Without Javier performing somewhere close to how he performed in 2022, the Astros are sunk. They may make the playoffs, but they have to have the #2 in the rotation performing like a #2 and not like he is exhausted or hurt or whatever has been happening lately. If that means giving him some time off, the team may have to suck it up and play through it.

Dana Brown Needs to be a Seer and a Sorcerer at the Deadline

The Astros GM needs to be either lucky or prescient as the trade deadline approaches. He has to channel his best Nostradamus and correctly choose what areas of the leaky dam to spackle up. And then he needs to channel his best Dumbledore and get player or players that will bring value and wins to this contending team while not mortgaging the future. Easy Peasy.

Dusty Baker Needs to Get the Best Lineup On the Field

As the wounded return, Dusty needs to be able to get the most production out of an improving lineup, while still getting the subs some at bats, so they are not hopeless/helpless when called upon to hope or help. The problem may get simplified or complicated by whatever trade or trades the Seer/Sorcerer pulls off. If he adds another bat to the mix, who is the odd man out, considering there will already be two odd men out when Altuve and Alvarez appear. But if Dana Brown trades off one of the excess OFs to pick up pitching help, this may make Dusty’s job a little easier.  

Trending Towards the Middle

At least offensively, it is hard to see any hitter other than Kyle Tucker, doing more than their norm the first part of the season and even with Tucker, his power is down a bit. If Yordan had not missed so much time he would undoubtedly have been doing more than his norm, especially with his 55 RBIs in 57 games. But in general, there is nobody in the lineup going crazy. Jose Abreu started trending back towards the middle in June, but he was in a deep, deep ditch at the end of May. Alex Bregman is (again) playing down in the first half of the season. Altuve in playing only 32 games is way below his norm. Jeremy Pena has been up and down, but certainly is not matching the flash he showed in the 2022 playoffs. Certainly, Mauricio Dubon is above his norm in batting average, but a guy with 4 HRs and 21 RBIs is not moving the needle. Yainer Diaz and Chas McCormick have been solid, but at times underused. Corey Julks has been above expectations, so, Corey – don’t trend down kid. Martin Maldonado despite those last two HRs in his last two games has been very bad. He either needs to trend back up towards his norm or trend back towards the bench once Yordan returns and starts stealing ABs from Diaz.

It would be nice to see someone go on a 6 week tear hitting .380 with 10 HRs and 30 RBIs. But lacking that we will take 4 or 5 guys hitting over .300 with 7 HRs and 20 RBIs. It’s time to make up for lost offensive time.

Support Your Local Framber

J.P. France with his 3.26 ERA to a lesser extent falls under this same banner. But he and Framber Valdez have pitched very well and deserve better than their respective 4-3 and 7-6 records. Framber has the best ERA in the majors at the break. THE BEST! But his 7 wins ties for 29th in all of baseball. His .538 win percentage is 37th among qualifying pitchers in the majors. He should have at least had 10 wins in his first ”half” starts. The team needs to take advantage of having such a gem of a starter and award him with the wins he deserves. And while they are at it – give France some solids too.

Those are the things that strike me as major issues heading down the stretch with this team. What do you think the team needs to do to catch, pass and bury the Rangers?

 

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35 responses to “Astros Head to the Second Half (More or Less)”

  1. Good post Dan. I would say many of the problems for France and Framber W/L are tied to the other problems you talked about.

    This team seems to have a pattern of not working pitchers and getting to BP’s early enough. Starters last longer, and more games are decided later. It’s cost Framber more than once. A lot of that is tied to the absence of guys you expected to contribute – Altuve, Alvarez, Brantley, inconsistencies from Bregman, and just how awful Abreu was for 2 months and Maldy all season. There are significant at bats going to guys that can hit like Julks, Pena, Diaz, Dubon but they don’t separate the OBP and BA’s, and it’s just leading to 5 pitch innings and longer outings for opposing starters. In a vacuum all of these guys are great to have, as a group it’s not a great mix.

    I made a short list of guys I would look at on your last posting – they were based on the idea that you don’t want to include people like Gilbert, Liperfido, Leon, Lee, etc in a deal. There seems to be some smoke around Giolito, which would be fine for a stretch run, but we will not be the only suitors, and most assuredly we will be trading someone of value for him. My list is on the idea that more Altuve, a little better Abreu, a returning Alvarez and Urquidy, these are almost like deadline deals. And if we can get Brantley for the last 2 months at least and for the playoffs its another .270+ bat that can tell a ball from a strike that will help – but that remains to be seen.

    I liked Daves idea of Liperfido – but it doesn’t matter if we like it. Dusty don’t care. Young guys and trade deadline pickups are at the back of the line. With the returning players – if Dusty would just switch Diaz and Maldy’s roles this team fixes itself offensively, but Dusty don’t care. We know Brown is a fan Diaz, and we know Baker wasn’t (it’s obvious by the early PT). One day it flipped. I wonder if Yainer won over Dusty, or Dana had the Hatteburg talk with Dusty. When Alvarez is back it will be telling – who loses the PT, Yainer or Julks? It should be Maldy, but I don’t think that will happen.

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    • Steven – obviously it helps to have more ABs with guys who get on base more down the stretch. I love what Dubon has done from a BA stand point – but he does not walk and he is light in the power department. Yordan will help a bunch and Brantley would if that ever happens. And we can’t sustain 80% of the games caught by Maldy once Yordan returns. Diaz must get at least half the starts and I don’t know if it takes Dusty waking up with a horse head next to his pillow – or would it be his favorite grape vine pulled up by its roots – but this is a must or he is letting down his team.

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      • And I meant to say that Altuve will be a huge help as discussed above – he seems to be the match that ignites the offense

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    • On paper I like the Loperfido suggestion, but having seen only highlights I want to know whether he can hit the fastball. Brett Wallace was a great hitter at AAA where he didn’t have to swing at 95mph+ fastballs because few pitchers could locate multiple times per at bat. I feel like Jake Meyers would have pretty good numbers if pitchers agreed to throw everything at 92mph or lower.

      I’m more concerned about the pitching than the offense. We’re going to count on France and Brown pitching into September and beyond? How much damage would that do to their long term career prospects? The bullpen sure feels like it was used heavily. Bryan Abreu (43), Phil Maton (41), Hector Neris (40), Montero (37), and Pressly (39) have made a lot of appearances. I doubt our starting pitching is going to suddenly start going further into the games. Someone’s arm might just fall off. So, I think Brown needs an inning eating starter who won’t put you in position to lose games before he exits and a bullpen arm that won’t light the stadium on fire the way Will Smith did for us.

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      • Yeah the bullpen usage looks unsustainable – and tied to not having enough help from the starters.
        Part of the problem with a 6 man rotation is your pen is short a guy and so the ones that are left are used more often.

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      • Fair question Devin. I don’t know the answer. I can say that watching Loperfido at the plate, he is quite disciplined. Did not look bad on any pitch. But there is a limit of regular throwers of 95 in the minors, and I suppose a few less than in AAA. But I’d say he’s already a better hitter than Chas or Jake. That’s my take. We know the club has better information on Lopefido than anyone. If he’s ready, I think we’ll see him. I love the power to all fields. He’s a lefty bat that will soon be taking advantage of the Crawford boxes.

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      • If you take out that first 1/4 of a year he played after he was drafted he is over a career .300 BA and over .400 OBP. I think he is someone to take pretty serious as a prospect, but at 24 he has been a little older than his core competition. I love that he has played all over the place, logging similar number of innings at 1B, 2B, and all 3 OF spots. He even put on a 3B glove for a few games in college. I hadn’t really looked at the guy before yesterday but he seems like a Steven kinda guy. Hit tool, can take a walk, work a count, plays 5 positions.

        Altuve made the jump from AA to the bigs. I wouldn’t be worried about that. I would be more worried about the 40 man and who would get the waive. Probably Madris. Poor Bligh, always good enough to get a few at bats in the bigs, never good enough to stick to a roster.

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  2. My first suggestion was going to be the addition of Korey Lee to the club at the Sept 1st callup date. Now I see he is injured(oblique).

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    • That is good news – of course itching in the back of my mind is that Brantley did report to Sugar Land too a while back, but hopefully these youngsters are truly healed.

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  4. What do the Astros need to do to solidify their team to catch and bury the Rangers and get ready for the postseason.
    1. Get Yordan healthy and returned to the lineup.
    2. Get Altuve healthy and returned to the lineup.
    3.Trade some prospect for a starting pitcher who can help them in August, September and October.
    4. Trade for a left handed bat who can fill out the bottom of the lineup for this fall.
    5. Weave Yainer Diaz’s bat into the lineup any way you can.
    6. Use a 6 man rotation to help with the starter’s rest as soon as you have 6 starters and then use two more relievers at callup time to rest the bullpen.

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    • As to #5, Yanier needs to be catching at least every 5 games and playing 1st one of the others. He hits better when he plays and does not DH. Of course that probably won’t happen as Dusty will continue to run Maldy out there despite his .172 average which should continue to fall like a lead balloon. Same for Yordan if my memory is correct. He needs to play at least every 5 games in left field.

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      • I laugh when I think what does it take to actually make a .172 average take a big dip. I guess if I wanted to wear some rose colored glasses after his next 0 for 18 streak I can say, look, his average only went down 5 points. It’s not that bad!

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  5. Good morning! Back in Texas from cool San Juan Capistrano. I should have stayed in California for baseball tonight, but family responsibilities have limited somewhat my live baseball watching. Let’s face it. Yainer needs to be catching half our baseball games, regardless of what else everyone in the offense is doing. Having Maldy catch so much is irresponsible. If he gets hurt, Diaz takes over a batch of guys he’s not been spending time with. And Lee is on the shelf, so we’ve got no real back up for the back up, which means Salazar is likely the next guy up.

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  6. Maybe a little tongue in cheek there but unless my calculator is wrong if he goes 0 for 18 his average will be .158. That’s 35 for 222. However, I would hope all would get my point. If Maldy were to hit .200 in the 25 AB’s he would only increase his average to a whopping .175. or 40 for 229. Stating the obvious here is he’s terrible at the plate but Dusty loves him so it’s probably a moot point. Hey if he went 10 for 30 (.300) he be hitting a cool (oh that’s not going to happen so never mind).

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  7. My All Star break comparison of CC vs. Jeremy Pena

    Corea – 80 G/ 307 AB/ .225 BA/ .299 OBP/ .700 OPS / 31 runs/ 17 DBL/11 HR/38 RBI/ 0 SB

    Pena – 81 G/ 313 AB/ .246 BA/ .301 OBP/ .700 OPS/ 42 runs/ 16 DBL/ 10 HR/ 32 RBI/ 8 SB

    Pretty even – luckily the Twins are only paying Correa 44 times what Pena is getting from the Astros.

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    • Just want to extend this by throwing out a few more names and numbers:
      Lindor – 90 G/ 339 AB/ .239 BA/ .320 OBP/ .798 OPS/ 56 runs/ 20 DBL/ 19 HR/ 60 RBI/ 13 SB
      Bogaerts – 84 G/ 316 AB/ .253 BA/ .339 OBP/ .731 OPS/ 44 runs/ 14 DBL/ 10 HR/ 35 RBI/ 9 SB
      Swanson – 84 G/ 325 AB/ .258 BA/ .343 OBP/ .753 OPS/ 41 runs / 15 DBL/ 10 HR/ 36 RBI/ 4 SB
      Story- 0 G/ 0 AB/ .000 BA/ .000 OBP/ .000 OPS/ 0 runs / 0 DBL/ 0 HR/ 0 RBI/ 0 SB

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      • Yeah Devin a lot of money committed there (and for many years into the future) with no extraordinary return so far.

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      • Maybe things will change. Especially with Tucker. Spending a boatload of $ and getting less than .50 on the dollar in results should wake an owner up but I doubt it. I’m curious what we think Tucker is worth to us and what we think he’s looking for.

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  9. Lineup out for tonight.

    Dubón
    Bregman
    Tucker
    Abreu
    McCormick
    Madris
    Julks
    Peña
    Maldonado

    Madris in the DH position with Diaz nowhere to be found. What is going on here??

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  12. In house the Stros can lift up the offense/def by switching catchers. Yes, Diaz has warts at the plate, but so does Maldy and Abreu. Everyone believes Diaz is the present and the future until he proves he isn’t. Try telling that to an obstinate HC.
    A SP, a reliever and LH bat! Does this org have enough assets to trade for a controllable SP according to Brown? Do we have enough to offer a tm like the White Sox for one of their quality arms? Do we dumpster dive for a innings eater or reliever? I am not very hopeful given our assets. Honestly I am out of my league here.
    Wow! We have managed a 2-2 tie despite not being able to hit beyond the infield with the bases juiced in the 4th.

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  13. Good evening Old School, France deserved a better fate as his infield initially looked like they’d been hanging around in Vegas during the break. But at least for now, he’s in line for a win and Ohtani a loss. I sure hope the pen holds on to the opener.

    Seems at this point our manager has firm control of the line up and we won’t be trying anything radical like putting our best catcher on the field. With Framber and Javier the next two nights, Maldy likely gets all three starts.

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    • Correction from Uncle. France does not qualify for a win tonight but let’s get those last 3 outs from Pressly for a team win. I’m tired. Will be happy to get back out to into the tropical Atlantic on Tuesday.

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  14. Thoughts after the game….
    – Both Pena and Bregman seem to be making errors at the worst possible moments
    – The pitchers on both teams deserved better defense – with better D, this could have been a 3-2 game
    – Nice offensive effort up and down the lineup. Both Tucker and Abreu on base 4 times. Big RBIs by Dubon and Julks.
    – They did allow Ohtani to walk them, when they didn’t like what he was tossing.
    – I would praise Maldy’s semi-pop-up sac bunt, but first I thought Moustakas should have caught it and then when he didn’t I have no idea why he didn’t cut down one of the runners at the other bases as they could have had a double play with Maldy running. That set up Dubon’s two run single
    – Bregman rarely strikes out but he did so three times, twice taking pitches that were outside for strike three
    – Maton put out the fire by getting a double play when coming into the game. Martinez pitched around another bad call by the home plate umpire that led to a walk instead of a K. Pressly is back to being Dr. Death in the ninth.
    – Can’t wait to see Altuve and Yordan return whenever that will be.

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  15. Off the track. Astros AA club, Corpus Christi Hooks pitchers walked 15 batters in 8 innings of pitching Friday night.

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