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Astros and the trade deadline: Thinking outside the box

Today, we will be doing some thinking outside the box and exploring what decisions and actions the Astros might make/take in the time leading up to the Trade deadline.

  • This is from a comment from a good friend of the blog, Steven – “I love Jeremy Pena. He has power. He is not scared of any moment. He can hit any velocity. He won a gold glove, not sure it was deservedly so, but he is, at the very least, an above-average defensive shortstop. But I would not hate Dana (Brown) if he made Jeremy the centerpiece in a trade that brings in Cease or Burnes. …… I think Dubon is a better baseball player than Pena, so I have no reservations about handing him a SS job.”

Thoughts – This is one of those decisions that could either help lead the team to another World Series run or be a trade that is looked back at as this generation’s Joe Morgan trade.

Cons – On the negative side, neither Dylan Cease (4.10 ERA), nor Corbin Burnes (4.00 ERA) are pitching particularly well right now. Also, each would be a rental as they are Free Agents after the season, and let’s face facts – this front office is not going to hand over the type of contract that brings either of them back. You would be trading a 25-year-old shortstop, who you control through the 2027 season and who along with being the 2022 ALCS and WS MVP is already one of the best offensive shortstops the team has had not named Carlos Correa. And if the Astros think that Altuve won’t be coming back anytime soon, they need to keep Dubon available to fill that spot.


Pros – Neither Justin Verlander (3.86 ERA when traded from Detroit), nor Gerrit Cole (4.26 ERA with Pittsburgh in 2017) were pitching that well when the Astros went after them. The Astros seem to have a fair amount of middle infield depth between Dubon, Grae Kessinger, Shay Whitcomb and Wil Wagner to possibly cover the loss of Pena. And the window for the team to take another Championship may well be closing. Strike now while you can?

  • This is from the crazed head of your willing servant. How about instead of the Astros crippling themselves prospect wise for any of their needs – Starting pitcher, left-handed bat, and another big arm in the bullpen, the team just does nothing or very little?

Cons – Doing little or nothing would be a morale buster for the fans as there are expectations that the team “must” make a significant move or moves before the deadline. And as we all saw back in 2017, the team may rebel a bit if nothing is done at the trade deadline. Unlike in 2017 there is no waiver trade deadline out there to save the day after lack of action at the regular deadline. And of course, there is a huge risk going forward without help with the poor performance of Rafael Montero, the season ending injuries to Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia, the uncertain return of Jose Urquidy, the fact that pitchers like J.P. France (already at 86 IP after only throwing 110 in 2022) and Brandon Bielak (already at 80 IP after only throwing 101 in 2022) and Hunter Brown (already at 91 IP after only throwing 126 in 2022) are headed for a huge jump in innings, the uncertain return of Michael Brantley and the on-going health issues of Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve.

Pros – Sometimes, decisions are made with the long view in mind. Yes, the big blockbuster for Justin Verlander and, to a lesser extent, the in-season pick-up of Zack Greinke moved the needle in 2017 and 2019. But is Dana Brown able to plug enough holes in the dam like a super little Dutch girl? And unlike back in 2017 and 2019, the prospect chest is not that full. After losing the 1st and 2nd draft picks in 2020 and 2021 and after having to draft late in so many recent drafts, and with prospects having been packed off elsewhere, there are not nearly as many attractive prospects to pull. It feels like other teams will want the team to throw in some of their young controllable talent that has made it to the majors. And that is the type of decision that could (depending on the player) kill the sustainability of this long, excellent run by the team.

OK, where do you fall as far as this kind of outside-the-box thinking goes?

 

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43 responses to “Astros and the trade deadline: Thinking outside the box”

    • Dan, I enjoyed your comment, on the Crawfish Boxes, about the medical/training staff. You have seen my comments here, addressing my concerns about those staffs, enough to know how I feel.

      Maybe the stretching programs are voluntary but the front office SHOULD make them mandatory. The simple stretching exercises that we all did back in high school, back in the 60s and 70s, should suffice.

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  3. Don’t think it wise to trade Pena. It’s to early to see what he’ll become. His defense is very good but his bat is suspect. He can hit for power and hopefully he’ll mature and hit a solid .265 or better with and OPS around 750-800.

    We do seem to have an excess of outfielders. Jake should be in the mix. Just don’t see him evolving into that .270+ hitter with power. Julks is definitely a surprise and I think we need to hang onto him. I like his speed, aggressiveness, and he hits for power. He seems to get better the more he plays.

    At Sugarland you have Dirden and Leon both above 800 OPS so there are options. At CC there’s Loperfido and Gilbert (untouchable).

    Do we look at packaging Korey Lee? I suspect that we’ll have Yanier as our catcher next year (hopefully) so is Lee expendable or is he a backup extraordinaire?

    Lots to chew on Dan.

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  4. From an offensive perspective, the biggest moves the Astros can make right now without it costing a penny, nor trading away any in house talent, would be to make Diaz the primary catcher and install Chas McCormick into the line up as the full time centerfielder.

    Beyond those two radical thoughts, the starting pitcher need still does appear to me to be the real need. Alas, everyone wants a starting pitcher or three. If Dana Brown determines the rental cost is just too high, then I will hope rest gives us back the Reptile and health gives us back the good Urquidy.

    I think we can go to the post season this year with what we’ve got. Don’t know where it might take us, but I’d rather wing it and look forward to 2024.

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  6. Should the Astros look to draft pitchers or position players in the upcoming draft? My answer: college pitchers for the first five rounds.

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    • Best Player Available in round 1 at #28, especially if he is a college pitcher.
      Then best college pitcher available in the next four rounds. From then on highest player on the board.

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  7. I agree with Steven. Not trading my starting SS! Not making my super utility guy a full time SS!
    I agree with Dave. Chaz is my CFer for this season. Diaz is my catcher/DH. When Yordan returns Diaz catches when Yordan DH’s and then DH’s when Yordan is in LF. When Machete catches, Yordan plays LF and Diaz DH’s

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  9. My goodness Julks has been scorching the ball. Hope some of his teammates catch fire to help win this gm.

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  12. Sarcasm here… I thought Seattle would come in tired and flat after a late game last night then losing two hours by coming in to Houston. Gosh, I guess it was the Astros that had the late game and flew in.

    Only Julks, who I have named COOG came to play today. The others wanted to go back to their homes.

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  13. If I were the Mariners I would send George Kirby out to the mound tomorrow and have him throw with his left arm. That would really confuse them.

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  14. One thing I noticed last night with Kirby. He was throwing a lot of pitches that were off the inside of the plate or on the inside corner. As a result, he was getting a lot of that soft contact off of the lower part of the bat. Obviously, we failed to make the adjustment. And yes, it didn’t hurt that the got the benefit of several calls that weren’t strikes. He just didn’t make too many mistakes over the plate.
    I still wish sometimes our guys would get in the face of the umpire and voice their displeasure with the calls but I guess not. At least the Rangers lost last night.
    Blanco wasn’t bad but if you’re not giving any run support to your pitcher it’s makes little difference.

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  15. Good morning from unseasonably cool Corpus Christi. Went to the game here last night and watched until the Manfred rule rent into effect. Seems all teams in the Astro system don’t play well past the ninth. Colton Gordon threw pretty well last night, 7 K’s and a run over four innings. Did not get any calls from the ups. It’s a theme.

    Jory Loperfido sat last night. The ushers we chatted with all agreed that he’s the best looking prospect on the club right now. Besides being 6′ 4″ and getting on base at a .406 clip and an with an OPS of .942, the big guy has stolen 17 of 18 bases on the season. Kyle Tucker? Colin Barber looked pretty good too. You guys need to negotiate and Astro win for tonight.

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    • Uncleknuckle has another thought. Why doesn’t Boss Crane move the AA club to Galveston? While the field and stands are immaculate down here, I’m guessing the city has some responsibility for keeping the facility maintained. If one walks down the third base side and continues around the outfield, it’s clear that no investment is being made to even keep the property up.

      Even though Corpus has a population in the 340,000 range, I’d have to assume there are a lot more baseball fans within a 25 mile drive of Galveston. And wouldn’t Tilman Fertitta jump at the chance to help develop such a facility?

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  17. That was a typical Astros loss last night where they get decent pitching and practically no hitting.
    Kirby has definitely outpitched his 8-7 record. Very good 3.09 ERA and 1.040 WHIP. An unbelievably low 0.8 walks / 9 IP – best in the majors, which means he is also best in the majors with 8.9 Ks per every walk he allows.
    Luis Castillo goes tonight and like Kirby has far outpitched his 5-6 record to date with a very similar 3.05 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. The Astros offense needs to wake up and give Hunter Brown some support tonight.
    Thankfully, the Rangers lost also (their bullpen melted down again), but we need more than just Julks (3 hits and an RBI) and Diaz (2 hits and a run scored).

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  19. Whats with the posts showing only a [1] and no name? Or is it my computer? Of course I see your picture Dan so you can’t hide.

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  20. Sugarland has the worst offense in the Pacific Coast League and their pitching staff has a team ERA of 6.39. With a 35-49 record, I’m trying to figure out how they have won 35 games.

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  21. CC is in almost the same shape as Sugarland except for the fact that their best pitcher has been moved up to Sugarland. I don’t know how CC has won 36 games, except for Arrigetti going 7-2 before he moved up.

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  22. Did anyone else see the video of Chas sticking his left arm out during the close play at first last night? If not photoshopped, it was chicken shit. I’m embarrassed at an Astro fan, and again all kinds of new cheat fodder on twitter, and even the Crawfish Boxes, our neighbor. Maybe there is a reason why Dusty is not real high on Chas.

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  24. The Mariners have to be ecstatic. After all the abuse for years at the hands of the Astros, the Mariners come upon the ship without an engine and no captain.

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  25. The Corpus Christi Hooks did not look much better than the Astros have over the past two days. But I’m as sure as ever that we’ll see Joey Loperfido in Houston sooner than later. He knows what he’s doing on the baseball field.

    My unofficial arithmetic says that Hunter Brown has a 4.98 ERA with Martin Maldonado. It remains 2.65 with Yainer Diaz. It’s entirely likely that the league is figuring out Hunter to some degree. But wouldn’t it be sensible to make a simple battery mate change in hopes of getting Brown out of his present funk?

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  26. Agree with you UK. Ever since Dusty flipped C, so has Brown’s numbers worsened. Perhaps the league has tapped into Brown, but the metrics speak to a connection with Brown/Diaz. Diaz needs to C the rotation as well.
    For now Dusty can have his cake and eat it to by placating his critics DHing Diaz daily and keep Maldy as his primary C.

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  27. Watching the Friday night game and listening to Blum and the crew was a season low for the Mrs and myself. It appeared as if we had tuned in to a sports bar and were listening to a group at a table talking baseball. Hardly anything about the game at hand. Not a good experiment.

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  29. I’ll tell you, as I again start wavering as to the soul of this club, Hector Neris puts himself in a huge hole and then digs his way out of it, showing more emotion than any single Astro has at any point this year. I’d like to know who he was yelling at just before he delivered that last pitch in the 8th. And heck, much maligned Maldy, (and it’s pretty clear now he’s been hearing the noise) was looking for a breaking ball and got it, allowing Pressly to close the game out in the ninth, rather than trying to keep it tied. A good win. I’d sure like to see a split tomorrow, but regardless of what happens, this club will be heard from after the break. I sure hope management comes together and figures out a plan that gives the roster its best chance to win going forward.

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    • Good morning! That sure is a fact 1oldpro.

      By the way Dan, that old persons font that I’m seeing now, is that just for me, or is everyone getting the same thing?

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      • I’m pretty sure this is part of the fix that had to be done to update the blog so that Apple products could properly post. At my age – I kind of like the bigger font.

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  31. Chip confirmed that the differences in format are due to the changes he has made to get an updated “theme” which is critical for allowing folks to properly interface with Apple products. He does not like how it looks yet, but is working on it. It will probably be an iterative process.
    So, patience is appreciated.

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  32. Certainly appreciate the effort, and it helps me catch my typos and this darn computer changing words along the way. Thanks Chip!

    If the Astros happen to lose an outfielder at the deadline for pitching help, we could do something a bit outside the box and bring in our own lefty bat in Loperfido. He’s .296/.413/.559/.971 in Corpus. He’s now 20 of 21 in stolen base attempts. For a guy that’s 6’3″ and 220, he gets around and he’s smart. He’s walked 40 times against 58 K’s. I did not see him chase any pitches. He’s playing mostly center these days, but also plays second and first. Unless we’d rather see Jon Singleton, the Loperfido option might be more fun.

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