Astros – Halfway There – Living on a Prayer

I sure hope I don’t have to pay Bon Jovi (either the band or their lead singer) for using those lyrics. My budget is like the Astros’ back in 2011-2013.

But the key idea here is that the Astros’ 2023 season is at the 81 game official mid-point. And frankly they may well need a lot of prayers down the stretch to be the first team in more than 20 seasons to repeat.

What have we seen so far….

  • The Astros have 44 wins and are a half game out of the last Wild Card spot. Assuming they win double that (yes, a HUGE assumption) what does 88 wins look like?
    • The Rays made the playoffs with 86 wins in the newly minted 6th spot in 2022
    • In 2021 with only 5 teams in the playoffs, it took 92 wins to get in (but the 6th team had 90 wins)
    • Skipping the crazy 2020 season, it took 96 wins to get in the playoffs in 2019 and the 6th spot was at 93 wins
    • 2018 took 97 wins to make the AL playoffs and 90 wins would have earned a 6th spot
    • In 2017 the Twins made the playoffs with only 85 wins and 80 would have picked up the 6th spot.
    • So, 88 wins might get them into the playoffs, but it might leave them looking in from the outside. Their best bet is to take the division from the Rangers and no better time to start than this weekend.
  • Shane McLanahan of the Rays is on pace for 22 wins this year, the most in the AL. On the other hand, the Astros have two pitchers on pace for a team leading 14 wins, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier. Anyone want to bet they end up in a tie for team leading at the end of the season based on Cristian’s last two starts?
  • The Astros are led in the slash categories by Mauricio Dubon (.286 BA) and the injured Yordan Alvarez (.388 OBP/ .978 OPS). The last time the Astros did not have a qualifier with at least a .300 batting average at the end of the season was the 111 loss, 2013 season when Jose Altuve led the team with a .283 BA.
  • Even with him missing 30% of the games so far, Yordan Alvarez still leads the team with 17 HRs and 55 RBIs, ahead of Alex Bregman (12 HRs/53 RBIs) in both categories. Will the Astros end up with a 30 HR and/or 100 RBI hitter this season. That may well depend on Alvarez coming back in time to make that happen, though the suddenly hot Bregman could have a shot at the 100 RBIs.
  • Ryan Pressly with 15 saves is right on pace for 30 saves for the season after saving 33 games in 2022. The last time an Astros reliever saved more than 30 games two years in a row? Brad Lidge in 2005 (42) and 2006 (32).
  • Heading into the season, would you have guessed Alex Bregman (47 runs scored) to be leading the team by 5 runs scored at the mid-point?
  • The Astros’ leader in SB’s is Kyle Tucker with 14 out of 15. Man, he has improved on his sterling career steal percentage lifting it from 86.8% entering the season to 88.2% as of today. So, he is on a pace this year of just short of the 30 SB level, while ironically his 49 RBIs puts him on pace to just fall short of the 100 RBI level.
  • Not surprisingly, Framber Valdez is leading the team with 105 IP on a pace to 210 IP. Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown are second on the team, tied at 87 IP apiece. Framber is also leading the team with 110 Ks (220 K pace) with Brown second at 97 Ks to date.

After just finishing a post about how critical Yordan Alvarez’s return and good health is to the team, one of the things that may be more critical for the second half is the Cristian Javier situation. If his recent struggles continue, or even worse, if he ends up on the IL, that could be almost fatal for a resilient rotation that is running out of options. He threw some very impactful games in 2022 and in the post season, none bigger than the 6 innings of no-hit ball that turned the World Series around and took the air out of the Phillies. The Astros need that guy in the second half of the season to make the playoffs and need him in the playoffs to make some noise.

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22 responses to “Astros – Halfway There – Living on a Prayer”

  2. Dan, I have been distracted by “other things” lately, but I am going to try mightily to stick to your script.
    -The number of wins at the halfway point will not be the focus of the Astros now or in the second half. They will focus on winning the AL West. That is their goal and it is vital that they do it.
    – I think they need to find a way to keep Yainer Diaz in the lineup. The more he plays, the more he will reward them.
    – The Astros are going to have to make it in July with the guys they have right now. I don’t believe Urquidy, Alvarez or Brantley will be ready until August at the earliest and they will trade for some help at the deadline.
    – Pretty sure Bielak is the next rotation man up and that is scary enough. Arrigetti would be the next desperation move. I still believe they are going to try to get another starting pitcher at the trade DL.

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    • As evidenced by his offensive stats to date, Yainer needs to catch more. He hits much better when he’s playing the field and not coming off the bench four times a night as our DH.

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  3. As long as there’re teams willing to give out those ridiculous contracts it’ll never stop. Would we rather have Cole, Verlander, and Springer at those amounts? I don’t think so. What I don’t understand is no state income tax in TX so what does that equate to? Tucker is the only one at this point who could fall into that category but with a lot of these guys it’s all about the money. I guess we shall see.
    Oh although I didn’t get to see the game save for the last inning and a half, kudos to the good guys.

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  4. Try as I might to ignore or even accept that our manager will simply not endeavor to put his best line up on the field, it’s just impossible for me. As I just noted Chas sitting on the first day of July, I took a look at June stats for our three rotating outfielders.

    Julks, 20 starts. .260/.342/.425/.766
    Jake, 18 starts. .183/.296/.300/.596
    Chas, 17 starts. .308/.392/.477/.869

    It’s unfathomable that in such a tough month for the club that any manager could possibly avoid the obvious and arguably intentionally play a lesser lineup.

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  5. OP – I sure understand having other things more important than baseball blogging. But what would those be? Haha. Yeah I agree they need to aim for the division – but I think what you can infer from the halfway numbers they need to pick up the pace to do that…. and that may be tough to do

    Z – I keep wondering at what point this house of cards holding up these salaries implodes. At some point I keep expecting the “rights” for these games to fall. That will be a tough to swallow time but all bubbles pop some time

    Daveb (UK) – All I can say is the only stat that you don’t cover is that Dusty’s ego trumps Chas’ superior hitting

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    • And darn it, Chas plays pretty good D too. And he can play all three outfield positions. Frenchy can, but not Julks and Jake.

      Not sure if anyone has heard that Framber has a sore ankle dating back to the Mets game and will sit tomorrow. Bielak is due to start for Sugarland tonight. I guessing they’ll pull him.

      I really think they wanted to sit Javier on Monday.

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      • And Chas is not in the lineup – but Julks and Meyers are…

        Oh boy – what we need is Framber sitting out and Cristian imploding

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  6. Rangers are packed with bats. Leadoff guy on every inning is going to catch up to with anyone. Got to go deep into the pen now, without a starter for tomorrow. Yikes!

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  7. Shawn Dublin due to start today in Framber’s spot. Hang on its going to be a bumpy ride.
    Reading the tea leaves I would not be surprised if Dublin got sent down after the game and Bleak was called up to start for Javier.

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    • Got to hope Dubin keeps them in the game for 4 or 5 innings. If he only give up 5, we should be able to match that early. Our bats have got to beat up on Mr. Heaney.

      Does Pena have a 3 day stiff neck, or is he next on the IL?

      I like Hunter Brown. He’s always a good, candid, self-depreciating interview after his games.

      I’m hoping we can play .500 ball until the All-Star break and get the rotation and Alvarez sorted out by July 14 when we play the Angels again.

      I sure hope we don’t end up trading Chas, legitimately our second most reliable outfielder, but he might be happier in a new home.

      I’ll be in Minute Maid on July 4 and then down to Corpus on Thursday to check in on Joey Lops and hopefully a whole batch of future Astros!

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  9. A heckuva win today.
    – Dubin, who is not stretched out because he’s been sitting in the bullpen waiting to be used – gave the Astros 4 solid innings. I know you were hoping he could hold them to 5, daveb (me too) so really happy with only the one run.
    – The bullpen pitched very well except for Abreu giving up the 2 run homer when we had the three run lead, but thankfully he settled down after that
    – Chas had two very good plays in the field, one flying back to the fence and one coming in for a diving catch and oh yeah – he hit that bases loaded triple that was just short of a grand salami to basically win the game
    – Loved Altuve’s shot in the 9th in answer to Abreu letting them get within one
    – Even Dusty could not screw this one up

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  10. Oh and we had a little bit of rain and my outdoor thermometer is showing 81F. I’m not sure if we’ve hit 81 F in a while – even over night. I texted my kids and told them I was wrapping the pipes. My son, Adam said they would be putting out the pumpkin spice lattes any minute now.

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  11. Good morning. What a full moon last night! Dan, I’ve been hoping for a bit of a break in the Houston weather.

    I’m so impressed with what our Space Cowboys have given us. They have kept us in games time after time. And I had no such expectation of Dubin.

    We can’t really trade Chas, can we? He’s a 28 year old and still getting better. He’s a starter and a good one.

    Yainer had a bad day. And in situations with guys on base. He’s not taking well to the DH job. I sure hope something changes with that at the break, before Yordan gets back. But I have not such expectations.

    Today is a big day for Javier. We really need the good version, not just for today, but to feel better about what we’ve got to work with going forward.

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  14. The lineup is not out for today’s game, but they are showing Javier as the probable pitcher today. We need him to channel some of his 2022 greatness (or at least goodness) and not leave the game early.

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  15. And the lineup

    Altuve 2B
    Dubon SS (Pena still out)
    Bregman 3B
    Tucker RF
    Abreu 1B
    McCormick CF ( is this the highest he has hit in the lineup)
    Diaz DH
    Julks CF
    Maldonado C (of course)

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  16. Well as I guessed above – Dubin sent down and Bielak brought back up – will probably be ready if Javier falters again.

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