Well, there’s a headline right out of the Mr. Obvious Playbook. Yes, you know that the Astros badly need a healthy Yordan Alvarez back. They are definitely missing that .278 BA/ .388 OBP/ .978 OPS slash. They are absolutely missing those 17 HRs and 55 RBIs in 57 games. (For those playing at home, 55 RBIs in 57 games is equivalent to 156 RBIs in a 162-game season. That’s not chopped chicken liver).
But to look at what he has meant to this team, let’s look at a few numbers that are quite inspiring or sobering depending on whether we think he comes back and rolls through the rest of the season healthy or not.
- He started the first game of his rookie season on June 9, 2019. Before he was called up, the team, which was quite a solid offensive team, to begin with, was averaging 5.1 runs per game. From that point to the end of the season with Yordan Alvarez, they averaged 6.1 runs per game. Well, that would be more.
- As we may or may not remember, in 2020, after eight at bats, Yordan went under the knife for both knees. In that shortened 60-game season, the 2020 Astros dropped back to 4.65 runs per game.
- Back with Yordan in 2021, the team rose up to 5.33 runs per game, and in an offensive down season for the game in 2022 (and without Carlos Correa), the team registered 4.55 runs per game.
- This season, Yordan has played in 57 of the team’s 79 games, and in those games, they have scored 4.65 runs. In the twenty-two games where he sat out or was on the IL, the team has averaged only 4.00 runs per game.
- Looked at it another way and frankly, looking at it the most important way, in 2023, the Astros are 33-24 (a 94-68 pace) in games Yordan has played and is 9-13 (a 66-96 pace) in games he has missed.
- Taking it to another level, the Astros are 20-8 (a 116-46 pace) in games where Alvarez has an RBI in 2023.
Those last two bullets are quite amazing in many ways, but they speak to the fact that with him in the lineup, the pitching staff may have had more than razor-thin leads to protect and also had the confidence that his big bat might bring them back from the precipice of a loss with a huge hit towards the end of the game.
It is critical that the Astros not only get Yordan back but that he remains healthy, as his presence not only helps them in the pennant race but also under the microscopic examination of the playoffs. He is the most important Astro on offense, and his return can only help the players around him in the lineup.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
34 responses to “The Astros need a healthy Yordan Alvarez”
At this point Yordan’s eventual return – if it really happens (see Brantley, Michael, and McCullers, Lance) – looks to be ‘too little, too late’. Moreover, even when YA comes back – and even if he comes back strong and stays completely healthy – Dusty’s favorite games of (‘starting line-up roulette’ and ‘relief pitcher roulette’) will find a way to sabotage us anyway.
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Yordan’s return will be a good start.
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My God – Javier is melting down again as he blows an early 3 run lead.
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Yordan certainly will be a good start and we’ve got several bats that will have a better second half.
But the fish stinks from the head down. We’ve got a team in a funk right now. We’ve got a batch of our normally most reliable players under performing, in all areas of the game. I don’t think it’s a happy group.
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They sure picked up Javier. I sure hope he’s fully healthy and just in that funk I mentioned last night.
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Javier had another rough start. Blummer noted the loss in velocity. He was already not a hard thrower at 93 but it was deceptive because of how it stayed on a plane and would cause hitters to try and adjust. I am wondering if that 1.5 MPH average he is down is causing his pitches to come off that plane and actually be right where hitters are expecting it. That Goldschmidt homerun looked like a pitch that last year he wouldn’t have been able to climb the ladder on but this year he squared up.
8 walks, 4 of the walks scored runs, and Bregman was absolutely right to be mad about that strike three call.
Sometimes we (or I) pay attention so much to the macro with frequency, OBP’s, etc. that I forget about the game inside the game. Gallegos got up on Altuve 0-2, throws him an outside pitch that could have went either way. At 1-2 he throws him an outside pitch 4 inches off and at Altuve’s neck but he fouls it off. I could see how aggressive Altuve had become at that point, and Gallegos should have read it too – the one thing you don’t do to an aggressive Altuve was throw him something he could drive, especially lower half inside. That 1-2 pitch should have been lower half outside by 6 inches. Credit Altuve for taking advantage of it. Sometimes it’s OK to take him to 2-2, let him feel like he is back in the count, and take his aggressive meter down a notch.
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I don’t know about other people, but for most of my life the most recurring daydream I have is crushing a pitch exactly like Altuve did. The only difference is that I crush it for a grand slam in the Astrodome to win the World Series. I’m going to go watch that replay about 50 times…
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Yeah, Altuve had decided he was not going to go down looking in that at bat. But actually, the homer by Abreu really impressed me. I don’t know what he’ll do against good pitching going forward, but he’s looking a lot less worse. One can hope.
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And Alvarez – everyone would agree a healthy Yordan has become vital to the Astros – they are not built like the 2017 team, they are kind of reliant on their superstar.
That said, I think many of us noted the worry of giving him that 6 year deal. The back half of that could be ouchy if he remains an injury risk and starts getting 26 million a year. Luckily only the AAV matters for cap space but its still a big number.
He is a big man. There is a lot of stress on muscles every where from the repetitive motion of violent swings. Part of why I like Tucker more, no, he is not the hitter Yordan is – only 3 or 4 living human beings are – but he is built like a ballplayer. Everything from throwing to swinging to baserunning, it all just looks so effortless. He isn’t carrying any extra weight, matter of fact he could probably use 10 more pounds and he could go from a star to superstar with 1-2 mph average on his exit velocity. But Tucker and his agent know this as well so that is a contract that will have to work itself out. Hopefully he is an Astro for a long time to come.
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Thoughts
– So, the team read my post and decided to prove to me that they can score 10 runs without Yordan. Now if they can only prove that scoring 10 runs does not kill the offense on the day after
– I think when I do the ChipalattAwards there may be some interesting winners for the month of June
– Jeez, we extend Javier and now he may be injured, may be tired, may be trying too hard to earn his extension? Again, he went to the WBC early in the Spring Training and immediately was throwing some high effort outings. I think baseball needs to figure another way.
– That was a crazy night last night – halfway through it looked pretty bad for the good guys as the 3-0 lead quickly became a 6-3 deficit.
– The aliens returned Bryan Abreu and took his doppleganger away as he shook off a terrible last outing and looked dominant again.
– Jose Abreu really put a charge in that home run – it didn’t look that hard hit when he connected and it went out like a Yordan special
– It almost looked like Altuve got jammed but still got around on that three run homer – I have no idea why they threw him inside
– Dubin gave up the one solo homer, but struck out 4 in 2 innings and Seth Martinez somehow came out unscathed thanks to the Cards’ baserunning.
– The Astros needed the win and got it
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It has been quiet on the Drew Gilbert front as he has come down to earth in AA – slashing .211 BA/ .354 OBP/ .632 OPS
And this is our only prospect in the MLB top 100 (supposedly)
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Meanwhile Pedro Leon has been quietly improving – in the last 28 days he is slashing .307 BA/ .427 OBP/ 1.007 OPS with 4 HRs / 13 RBIs and 22 runs scored in 17 games!
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Wow! What an offensive output by the Stros. Make Wainwright pay for throwing all those floaters, or cookies.
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Glad to see the good guys come through with a 6 spot. Could always use a couple more. Just don’t understand in the top of 5th as Pena swings at 2 pitches no where near the plate and then Chaz swings at 3 in a row a “foot” outside.
Dreams come true. Tucker with a 3 run bomb.
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Up by 9. Is it Montero time?
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Wainwright is the Ric Flair of baseball. At this point you are just asking, why?
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I don’t know where we’d be without J.P. France.
Altuve is hitting. Maybe Tucker and Abreu and Bregman too, all at the same time for a change. I was not impressed with the grand slam in the 9th.
The bottom third of the order is not stepping up right now though. Chas looks bad too. And Pena is kind of a mess. Anyone for batting him second?
Did anyone see Diaz’ stats last night when broken down by role?
Catcher .343, .360, .543, .903
First .364, .333, .818, 1.152
DH .193, .203, .421, .625
The only solution I can imagine for him in 2023 is waiting until 2024.
I’m not giving up on Montero yet. He’s got great stuff+!
If we win 2 of 4 this weekend, we’re ok. Anything more will be a bonus.
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I was thinking last night that if Diaz were getting 80% of the starts at catcher he’d be in the running for ROY and I doubt the team’s record would be any worse than where we’re at. Then again, we probably remember the disaster of a year when Ausmus was traded away.
Announcers last night mentioned that rookie pitchers have started 30% of our games. My count has it at 29/81 games which is actually almost 36%. I find our success to be very impressive based on that stat and the underperforming offense, but I’m also concerned whether those arms will be able to go the full season.
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Devin,
I don’t think any of us even thought about ROY, but you are absolutely right. Even if he hit something like .275 with an .800 plus OPS and hit 20 homers, all of which he might well do regardless, he’d be in the running for that award with 50% of the starts behind the plate.
And I have not even noted his defensive work to date. He’s flat our good behind the plate.
Just imagine how much stronger we’ll be behind the plate next year!
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Looking at the Astros 2020 draft selection of Alex Santos, that selection is appearing to be a huge bust as his stats, over 2 1/2 seasons are: 4-18 with a 5.55 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. Tyler Brown is no better. At least Daniels and Whitcomb are showing signs of understanding baseball.
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I loved how we put up 6 runs with 2 outs, but that was mostly Wainright leaving flat breaking balls up in the zone and his “fast”ball was 86 – 87. Maybe JP will be our ROY. He sure was locked in last night.
Whoh oooohhhh
Whoh oooohhhh
Come on France, come on France
Let’s make your pitches do a dance
You know that curveball is fallin’
And strikes umpire’s callin’
And we’ve got to get ‘em to miss swings down
You’ve been working so hard
You’re not throwing too hard
Come on JP, come on JP France
Come on, come on Dubon
Grounders fielded by Dubon
Come on, come on Dubon
Whoh oooohhhh
Whoh oooohhhh
Come on France, come on France
You may not get another chance
You know that curveball is fallin’
And strikes umpire’s callin’
And we’ve got to get ‘em to miss swings down
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Not too surprising speculation
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/06/astros-open-to-trading-outfielder.html
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Every time I go through the comments there I want to scream. There are suggestions the Astros trade Diaz or Tucker, which tells you the intelligence level there isn’t too high. One stood out there suggesting Houston were fools because they traded Jose Siri and held onto Chas and Jake. Well, I’m not going to level any accusations here, but I find it fairly unlikely that Jose Siri somehow has turned it around and the 15HR and .832 OPS he’s posted across 50G this year are legitimate and something one could expect moving forward. Then again, that entire Rays offense has been playing well above any level one could reasonably expect. Hopefully the magic wears off before we have to face them in the postseason.
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These articles are crazy. I do think there is a chance that Chas gets traded if the return is right. But some of them have stated we have a bevy of major league outfielders, which I retort just because we have a lot of outfielders on the major league roster doesn’t mean they are all major league outfielders. Chas is literally the only one of that group of Chas/Julks/Meyers I wouldn’t trade, but then again he might be the only one that gets you a return. I just don’t know what return they are looking for.
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Steven, if we picked up a quality baseball player and lost Jake or Julks but not Chas, I might be impressed with our new GM. Of course I’d have to see what else it cost us. I would not mind Pedro Leon as part of a deal.
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I suspect we’ll trade the player(s) who we think will benefit us best. That could any of the aforementioned outfielders. Have to see what “Brown “ can do for us.
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Surprised to see Pena sitting out the opener of the series.
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I love hearing so many Astro fans in Arlington.
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Considering 6 of our top 7 prospects are outfielders and we have Chaz, Julks, Madris and Meyers I would almost guarantee that one or two of them get traded. I would be surprised if they part with Gilbert.
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Good morning 1oldpro and everyone else. I’ve been reading what everyone has been reading about getting a big, ideally lefty bat for the stretch run. Seems to be a whole lot of interest in Cody Bellinger around the league. We could lose an outfielder from the the major league club. And if we’re going to lose Chas, we’d better get a quality return. If not, we sure should hold on to him and appreciate what he provides.
https://stathead.com/tiny/HSGIR
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That link does not work. Seems Stathead now wants 8.00 a month for that access. Anyway, It was a Bellinger/Chas comparison. Chas and Bellinger have similar stats, but across the board, Chas is better than Bellinger in 2023 at a tiny fraction of the cost and is under team control through 2026. Bellinger is a rental. I suspect Dana Brown has been fielding quite a few phone calls, mainly about Chas.
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I am not a Bellinger fan.
Over 37,000 Seattle fans saw their Mariners go up, 4-0, in the second inning against the Rays last night. And then lose 15-4.
Been thinking about the hype, the payrolls and the W-L records of the Padres and the Mets. Wow.
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I’d rather get shut out at the trading deadline than give up more than we get in return. I’m okay seeing where these guys take us in 2023 and then be in a better position going into 2024.
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The Padres roster and performance reminds me of the Mavericks after acquiring Kyrie Irving…who they just paid stupid money to retain. I’m glad I’m not an NBA fan. I hope the Mets and Padres are enough to scare teams away from following that style.
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