Astros 2023: Weird stats in mid-June

Baseball has always been an odd statistical sport. In basketball, a 20-point, eight-rebound kind of guy (if he is uninjured) is not going to be sitting at 10 pts/4 rebounds per game after a couple months of games. An uninjured QB in the NFL is not going to average 80 yds per game passing (not even Davis Mills).

But in baseball, players can go on unsustainable cold streaks (Jose Abreu) or hot streaks (Luis Arraez of the Marlins, who was batting .403 after 58 games) for significant chunks of the season.

Note: Arraez is now hitting .382 after 63 games.

Today let’s look at some oddities with the Astros and their stats as we reach mid-June.

  • Raise your hand if you thought about a month ago, when Alex Bregman looked hopeless and Kyle Tucker looked very good – that they would be tied exactly at 9 HRs and 39 RBIs.
  • The Astros have no .300 hitters on the team now and the guy leading them is…..Mauricio Dubon (.297 BA)? This is highly unusual this early in the season – last June 15, the Astros had two regulars (Michael Brantley and Yordan Alvarez) hitting .300 or better.
  • The Astros best starter is no surprise – Framber Valdez and his 2.36 ERA easily tops the team right now. However, the top bullpen pitcher is a total surprise as Phil Maton and his 1.10 ERA is easily tops on the team. Coming into the season, you would have to list Maton as behind Ryan Pressly, Rafael Montero, Hector Neris, Bryan Abreu, and Ryne Stanek on the bullpen totem pole.
  • On the other hand – while Framber has by far the best ERA at 2.36 among the starters (Cristian Javier is second with 3.13), his 54.5% winning percentage is 4th among starters behind Javier (7-1, 87.5%), Hunter Brown (6-3, 66.7%) and J.P. France (2-1, 66.7%). Of course, wins often have to do with hitting support and Framber has not been getting it.
  • Stop sign? Jeremy Pena who was a very solid 11 out of 13 on stolen base attempts in his rookie year is only 6 of 12 in 2023. This brings to mind George Springer, who was 9 out of 19 in 2016, and Jose Altuve, who led the league in caught stealing in 2013, 2015, and 2016. The good news is that this is an area for potential improvement. For instance, Springer is 28 out of 33 since joining the Blue Jays.
  • Getting rid of the shift rule was supposed to significantly help left-handed hitters like Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. It has marginally helped Tucker with an increase in BA from .257 to .269 so far, though his OPS is down from .808 to .789. And Yordan though having fine numbers like his 55 RBIs in 57 games played – still has his BA down from .306 to .277 and his OPS down from 1.019 to .978.
  • If you are looking for a reason to hope the Texas Rangers slow down – they are leading the majors with a .326 BAbip (Batting average on balls in play) when the average is .297. This is a measure that often shows how lucky a team is hitting. The Astros are slightly below average at .291.
  • The Astros’ power numbers are visibly down this year. While slugging percentage in the AL has gone up from .392 to .406, the Astros SLG has dropped from .424 to .401.
  • The Astros’ pitching staff is leading the majors in ERA – 3.28 vs. the Twins (3.54) in second place. Though the Astros are solid in most areas, it is hard to pinpoint what is driving their success. Their WHIP (1.242) is 6th in the AL. Their 8.1 hits/ 9 IP is fifth. Their 3.1 walks/ 9 IP is tied for fifth best. Their 9.5 Ks/ 9 IP is third. They are tied for second in the AL by allowing 1 HR/ 9 IP. But somehow, this all amounts to the best staff in the majors.

In some ways, it is not early in the season, but on the other, there is more than half the season yet to go. It is likely some of the odd numbers will shift. What do you think?

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40 responses to “Astros 2023: Weird stats in mid-June”

  1. Offense: I think only two, maybe three guys are producing more than they will end up giving us on the season.

    Maldy
    Julks
    Frenchy, maybe

    And there might be a left-handed acquisition as Brown has hinted at. Not sure where he would go, or how how much Dusty might play him, but it’s on the table. I also would not rule out a lefty bat from within the system. We might also have Brantley. If we can survive another month until Yordan gets back, the offense could be fun to watch.

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  2. I thought we might give another game away but the Baseball gods have smiled upon us. It sure appeared that we were trying to lose this one. I guess the Nats are feeling the same way as an error cost them the game. Framber has another good outing but doesn’t get a “W”.

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    • We got a real break in the end. Bregman created all that havoc to start the ninth with that lazy, terrible throw. I don’t care how good your closer is, throwing away an easy ground ball to start the inning will take your pitcher out of his game.

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      • While we were all contemplating Dan’s post about ‘weird stats’, the Astros were topping it with the ultimate ‘weird inning’. I’m just glad it is over and no baseball players were injured in the course of filming this episode of ‘the Bad News Bears Enter te Twilight Zone.’

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      • Yep, lately Bregman’s defense has been somewhat suspect.

        What’s up with Pena? He hasn’t played in a few days.

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      • Good point Mr. Bill – it was a game much weirder than my stats

        Sarge – they said Pena has been sick the last couple of games – maybe sick of us failing to play errorless ball? I think he was in the dugout – usually when someone is sick you don’t want him all close up with everyone else.

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  4. Back to Dans post. My real concern with the 2023 Astros is pitching depth. Losing another starter would be a real blow. Urquidy may or may not be able to come back and produce at a level we need. That’s why I think Brown has got to bring in a solid guy for the rotation at the deadline. That would make Bielak a spot starter again, the role he should be in. I still think the pen will sort itself out.

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  5. Alex Bregman has an OPS of .725. That’s ninth on the club. He’s got 63 hits, only 18 for extra bases. He also leads MLB in GIDP. This club really needs him to awaken. This is way beyond his typical early season slow start. And he seems perfectly heathy, although getting slower and slower afoot at a relatively young age. He’s not getting an extension from me.

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  7. What a weird game last night
    – Framber does a great job holding it to 1 run in 7 innings and still doesn’t win it.
    – Bregman makes an error on an easy play
    – Pressly makes a mental error – going home when he should have just gone to first and take the easy out.
    – Meyers dives for one when he should have just played it safe and kept them ahead.
    – When will baseball extend first base into foul territory so that runners can run to it without getting into fair territory
    – On the radio this morning they were talking about Nats manager David Martinez rightfully complaining about the last play where Meyers was obviously in fair territory and how he took the other side of the argument when Trea Turner did the same thing against the Astros in Game 6 of the 2019 World Series
    – Was not counting on McCullers coming back this season – feels like this makes it almost mandatory for the team to go find another starter
    – The Astros went out and found a replacement for Yordan over the next 4 (or more) weeks and his name is Jose Abreu

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    • We’ve got some pitchers that don’t play good D. If Pressly throws out that guy at the plate, it stuffs out the rally. And it was not a tough play. Do our pitchers work on playing defense in game situations?

      Jake hustles, but he might not be the sharpest guy around. Last week he went flying by a catchable ball on the track and could have hurt himself as he tried to jump backwards and twist at the same time. Diving shows effort, but maybe blind effort sometimes.

      The first base interference conflict is the most repeated problem issue in baseball. It’s got to be solved.

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      • Brian, you are correct. Our pitchers are not very good at fielding now. The Mrs. said that another other pitcher, against the Astros, would have made that easy play last night.

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    • Dan, about the extension of first base into foul territory, I can’t see that happening due to this fact… if the baseball hits the part of the base that is straddling the foul line, is it a fair or foul ball? At least now, it the ball hits the base, it is a fair ball. Missing the base? Foul.

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      • OK – two suggestions
        1) Make the extension flat.
        2) Have a 1 or 2 foot gap between the two “bases”

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  8. How can one guy be an absolute disaster at the plate for 60+ games and then all of the sudden become Tony Gwinn? It’s a mystery to me as well as everybody else. Do you think we can get Maldy some of what Abreu has been taking?

    McCuellers signing appears to be another mistake. Understand it but why sign a guy to a LTC when he has shown to be injury prone? Took a look at his injury stats and they ain’t pretty. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/houston-astros/lance-mccullers-17540/injuries/

    I wonder if Jake would have beaten the throw to first even w/o the interference. Haven’t heard a comment on that but I wonder why not try a suicide squeeze. A good bunt towards 1st probably would have scored Tucker but then anything over the infielders would have done the same. Occasionally, don’t you think doing something out of character is a good idea?

    Kudos to Pressley for getting out of the jam that never should have happened in the first place.

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    • I think we only got LMJ to sign that contract extension because he wants to remain in Houston and was willing to accept less money due to the risk situation his injury history presented. Pitchers are getting overpaid in free agency.

      deGrom – 5/$185
      Rodon – 6/$162
      Verlander – 2/$86
      Senga – 5/$75
      Taijuan Wlaker – 4/$72
      Taillon – 4/$68
      Bassitt – 3/$63
      Eflin – 3/$40
      Tyler Anderson – 3/$39
      Eovaldi – 2/$34
      Wacha – 4/$26
      Quintana – 2/$26
      Stripling – 2/$26
      Manaea – 2/$25
      Heaney – 2/$25
      …
      Jordan Lyles – 2/$17

      Last night I was looking forward to watching the highlights after the blackout ended. Then, I checked the score and saw the top of the ninth inning debacle. Hopefully they’ve got those out of their system for awhile.

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    • Zanuda, I hope the powers to be in our minor league system are making all of our hitters take bunting reps every time they get together and time allows. It’s got to be something guys feel comfortable doing. It’s not that easy.

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      • I will admit that it’s a vanishing art! Maybe it isn’t as sexy as a 3 run home run walk off but if you win by doing it, who cares.

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  9. After the 3-dog night we all witnessed Wednesday evening, I think I heard Jake Meyers singing this little ditty:

    Dusty told me not to bunt …
    Dusty told me not to bunt …
    That ain’t no way to score runs, son!
    That ain’t no way to score runs.

    Put some angle on your upswing;
    give the cheap seats a good try!
    Flail away with all your arm strength –
    Don’t be timid! Don’t be shy!
    Never square around on my watch;
    I want no ‘squeezed-in’ RBIs!

    Dusty told me not to bunt …
    Dusty told me not to bunt …
    That ain’t the way to score runs, son!
    That ain’t no way to score runs. (uh- UH!)

    Dusty told me!
    Dusty told me!
    Dusty told me!
    Dusty told me!
    Dusty told me!
    [you get the idea]

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  10. Seems I say this most everyday. I have absolutely no idea what Dusty is thinking when he makes out a line up. But I’m pretty sure that Diaz does get a day of rest whenever he hits a homer the night prior. As for Chas leading off instead of our future Hall of Famer, someone help me!

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  11. Once again, I know Abreu has been “hot” but I also knew what was going to happen when he stepped in against Harvey. He made contact with one fastball and it landed on the plate side of the 1st base dugout. All you got to do is pump that guy 97+ fastballs, much less 100, and he will just flail. I think about the night before, the 3/4 with a dinger night, I know the dinger and the double were both sliders. I don’t remember the single, I remember that it was a groundball caused by the fact that the SS was out of position, but I don’t remember what the pitch was.

    There was a point that a 37 year old Craig Biggio had to make a serious adjustment. He started cheating fastball, and of course he started flailing at outside breaking balls. Bidge was just as strong as ever, his bat still had the sting in it, but his eye had slowed. No amount of working out fixes that, so he extended his career by treating 90% of pitches like they were going to be fastballs, and it worked. Sure, he crawled across the finish line as a .250 guy but he was also popping more in the crawfords as he started pulling fastballs and every mistake pitch he had a good opportunity to take advantage of. I feel like Abreu might want to look at that. He still has pop, he just has to get to fastballs better. Of course Bidge didn’t play in an era when almost everyone coming out of the bullpen was throwing 98 either.

    I am not sure what Yainer did (or what he has to do as a hitter) to not play 3 days in a row. Matter of fact, he just now for only the second time this year played 2 games in a row. Dusty doesn’t care what the media writes, he doesn’t care what fans want, when he is convinced that playing the worst hitter in the game everyday is going to help his pitchers, he will accept that it takes to the bottom of the 9th with two outs to score your first run. I haven’t seen Maldy do a single thing defensively that wouldn’t have been done by Diaz, and Diaz is a hitter.

    I am sure Diaz will be catching tonight, but then he will probably only play 2 of the next 5 after that. Of course there is a chance that Salazar will be the one catching tonight.

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    • Abreu is getting sliders thrown to him because he has started hitting fastballs. His hits in Toronto and the two HR in Cleveland came off fastballs. If I could throw 95+ I’d still be pumping them in there to him, though. Regarding Biggio, I feel like he is getting a bit of a bad rap. It makes sense – he was kind of the poster boy for sabremetrics since Bill James championed him as both one of the most valuable and most underrated players in the league at one point. There is almost always a backlash in opinion at some point. The problem I have with the argument that he was selling out on fastballs at the expense of his ability to hit the slider is that he was never really able to hit the outside slider. He flailed at it his whole career. I think the problem is that he decided to emphasize power over on base skills in his mid 30s. I would suggest it was his legs more than his eyes declining that led to this. You can also put a mid-20’s Alex Bregman in that category.

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      • For his career he has a .310 avg on fastballs. Last year he was .278. This year so far .206. It could be in the last few weeks, as he has heated up, he brought that up, I can’t find splits that detailed. His exit velocities are the same as his career numbers on fastballs. I assume when he hits a fastball fair and he is doing it with the same exit velocity the problem seems to be that he just isn’t hitting the fastballs enough – he is being thrown the same rates of pitches as his career (seeing the same percentages of fastballs, curves, etc) but the fastballs are not turning into hits as often. Same exit velo’s – so the pop is still there – I can’t think of another explanation except he just isn’t getting there fast enough often enough.

        And my eyes match the sabermetrics. He seems to be swinging behind everything that has real velocity. Sure, he hits some of them, but so does Maldonado. The rate of it is way behind. Think of it this way – against the fastball Abreu has been one of the most prolific players of his generation – accounting for 109.2 runs more than the average player against fastballs. This year he is at -6.4, among the worst.

        I don’t see a reason, if I can throw 95+, to throw him anything other than moving target fastballs (one up, one down, one out, one in, etc). I don’t think he can read them fast enough.

        I cannot find stats that would support my argument about Bidge – they didn’t really start keeping stats like that until around 2002 – but what I have seen supports your assertion that he never hit the slider, that wasn’t a late thing in his career.

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  13. It was all set up. Backup catcher gives you the lead in the 8th and in comes your closer. It’s in the bag, right?
    Plan B for the tenth is your bullpen head case.
    What a game. Javier wasted.

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    • The Astros were 5-6 in extras last year with the best team on the planet. Now they are 0-5 in 2023. One might argue that the Astro manager does not understand how to either avoid or win with the Manfred concept in effect.

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  14. The story of last night’s collapse:
    Jose Altuve – 0-4, 1 K
    Alex Bregman – 0-3, 1K
    Jose Abreu – o-4, 3Ks, 1 GIDP
    Corey Julks – 0-3, 2Ks
    Jake Meyers -0-3
    Martin Maldonado – 0-3, 1K

    It’s hard to win a game when that happens, even if you get 2 hits (along with 2 Ks) from Chaz and 3 hits (including a double) from Tucker.

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  15. I hate to keep beating the dead horse but we have about 5 players who get to play musical chairs for position. Then we have about 5 who are about as inconsistent as one can get but they’re in there every game. How can we ever expect to get any momentum by these kind of line ups?

    Going 4 for 5 and then sitting out the next game is about a demoralizing as one could get. On the other hand we have a player going 1 for 28 but they’re in there day after day. It makes absolutely no sense.

    The bull pen has cracks in it and is beginning to leak like a sieve. I’m beginning to think that this is not all on the players if you know what I mean. Maton was due to have a poor outing but at an inconvenient time. Pressley, who knows. Yes we have had injuries and lost a few players but is there nobody who can step up and fill the void? I want to see what Dana Brown will do at at the trade deadline.

    Can we package a deal where we trade Dusty and Maldy for a player to be named later?

    Is there anybody in the minors who can help? Chaz, Jake, and Julks are looking more and more like 4A players. Take a look at the stats for these guys along with Maldy and Abreu (no I don’t expect him to hit .280 with an 800 OPS for the remainder of the season).
    https://www.mlb.com/astros/stats/

    OK, I’ll get off my cynical soapbox now.

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    • Z, Chas has got the 4th best OPS on this team. He’s a guy, much like Diaz with Malady (auto correct gave me that, it’s fitting) that has taken a back seat to Jake and Julks in Dusty’s rotation. Chas is not remarkable, but he does have a resume that shows he’s consistently produced at above league average in 2021, 2022 and even now in 2023. It’s fact. The other two guys can’t claim that. Both he and Diaz should be on the field until they’ve shown us one of those 1 for 28 slumps. They will produce.

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      • You may be right about Chaz but we probably will never know about how him or another might play given a chance to play everyday for a period of time. I almost wonder if we’re showcasing these guys for a possible trade. I don’t dislike any of them but let one play for awhile. Imagine what will happen when/if Brantley returns. The game of musical chairs will get even more players. Unfortunately we don’t have any standouts that are ripping the cover off of the baseball. I guess I’m spoiled by us exceeding expectations.

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    • The league average in OBP is .320. Last night we employed 6 of our 9 starters that are below that number. Of course, Diaz wouldn’t have fixed that at .287 himself. Neither would Dubon, Kessinger, or Salazar. I don’t really know what else Dusty has to work with.

      This team just keeps getting into fits where it does not put pressure on pitchers. They HIT as well as most teams, but they don’t draw walks at the same pace.

      In the end, despite some of the apparent weaknesses, we are pretty much a league average offense. BA .246 (League .248). 4.49 runs a game (league 4.56). 565 K’s (league 591). This team will be much better with Brantley and Alvarez in it when they finally are playing. IF everyone was playing and everyone was hitting as expected, Maldy is fine as a starter if you are really convinced he is the better defensive option (I am not). But they aren’t. Dusty has to do something to stop the bleeding sort of speak where they might score 7 tonight but tomorrow they will score 1 run, and that with 2 outs in the 9th inning from a pinch hitter. That might mean the guy at .269/.287/.437 needs to play a little more than he has over the guy at .181/.266/.284, so be it. Wherever he has a chance to get a better at bat. But he is playing musical chairs on the titanic right now. No matter whose number he writes in, they are below league average in OBP.

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  16. Tonight’s starting pitcher for the Reds, 24-year old lefty Andrew Abbott (their org’s 2nd round pick in the 2021 draft) is a good one. He is just two starts into his major league career, but so far he is pretty much unhittable. In his two starts (the first against the Brewers, the second against the Cardinals) he is 2-0, with 0.00 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 1.53 BAA, and has struck out 10 MLB hitters.

    Abbott’s one weakness so far has been control – as he has walked 7 in 11.2 innings. So far not one of the guys he has walked has scored.

    I predict another long night for our struggling Astro hitters – and, alas, yet another humiliating defeat for our heroes in front of the home fans.

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  17. We get a nice shout out today from Gary Trujillo’s blog about the Oakland A’s as he took a comment I left for him a few days ago and made it into a column about their terrible situation.

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    • Glad I’m not an A’s fan. I feel for the loyalists, abandoned by a guy nobody seems to have anything good to say about.

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