,

Forrest, Kyle and other matters

–  The news that Forrest Whitley is out (again) with a lat strain for the next three or four months is just the latest in a series of frustrating misses for the no-longer-so-young, no longer-so-top Astros’ prospect.

Let’s see since being drafted in the first round back in 2016, he:

  • Missed a year due to Tommy John surgery
  • Missed a year due to the pandemic.
  • Missed most of a year for violating MLB’s drug rules (non-PEDs).
  • Missed portions of other years due to injuries, so he has never pitched more than 92 innings in a season with the organization.

And he has not been that great in the upper reaches of the minors,  especially in his 87.1 innings of AAA ball (8.04 ERA).

Now the question must be answered about his future in the organization. Can they afford to have a 40-man roster spot filled by someone who can’t make it through half a season before his body breaks down? Is it time to move Forrest and his big arm to a bullpen role?

–  Talking about Forrest Whitley leads us to talk about Kyle Tucker.  Tucker was also a first-round draft pick out of high school the season before Whitley. The two of them played tag team at the top of the Astros prospect list for the next few seasons, but only Tucker held it together to get a call up to the majors. He had a bad cup of coffee in 2018, a good one in 2019, and a permanent call-up in the 2020 season.  Their careers have veered off in different ways since then, with Tucker becoming an all-tool OF and Whitley becoming an enigma.

Whitley and Tucker were often talked about as the untouchables during their prospect time. They were reportedly part of the conversation (from the other side) with the successful Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke trades and the unsuccessful J.T. Realmuto trade. Would the team like to go back and send off Whitley in one of those trades instead of Joe Musgrove or as a piece that might have gotten them Realmuto? Probably. But they stood their ground on making two prospects untouchable and gleaned one All Star talent out of it.

– My brother, David, pointed out to me that Friday night that former Astro George Springer hit a leadoff homer against former Astro Justin Verlander in a 3-0 loss. It triggered me to look at how some of our “alums” are doing this year:

Gerrit Cole – 7-0 / 2.82 ERA/ 1.130 WHIP in 13 starts and 79.2 IP – Cole continues to shine for the Yankees (spit!!) and is one of the leaders in the Cy Young race this year. For comparison, Framber Valdez is 6-4/ 2.16 ERA/ 1.025 WHIP in 12 starts and 79 IP.

Justin Verlander – 2-3 / 4.25 ERA/ 1.139 WHIP in 6 starts and 36 IP – JV was late to the party for the Mets after an injury delayed his debut. For a comparison, Brandon Bielak is 2-2/3.19 ERA/ 1.452 WHIP in 6 starts and 31 IP.

Carlos Correa – .209 BA/ .299 OBP/ .671 OPS with 15 runs scored/ 6 HRs/ 24 RBIs for the Twinkies. Again, for comparison Jeremy Pena is hitting .252 BA/ .310 OBP/ .742 OPS with 34 runs scored/ 8 HRs/ 26 RBIs.

George Springer – .257 BA/ .321 OBP/ .713 OPS with 33 runs scored / 8 HRs/ 23 RBIs for the Blue Jays. For comparison – Jake Meyers (who has been only in CF) plus those at bats of Chas McCormick in CF are hitting a combined – .248 BA/ .343 OBP/ .775 OPS with 27 runs scored/ 8 HRs/ 28 RBIs.

Yuli Gurriel – .291 BA/ .350 OBP/ .790 OPS with 15 runs scored / 3 HRs/ 13 RBIs in only 141 ABs. For comparison – Jose Abreu – .213 BA/ .273 OBP/ .537 OPS with 15 runs scored / 1 HR/ 23 RBIs in 216 ABs.

So, the team has done a better job in some areas than others in filling in behind these folks.

– About 3-1/2 weeks ago, we posted the following on the blog……

Start of the Astros’ no-excuses part of the schedule | CHIPALATTA

At that time, the team was 19-18 and basically bobbing along. Since then, the team did step up as suggested in that post and has been on a very solid 16-6 run. On the plus side, they were trailing the Angels by ½ game back on May 11th and now are 5 games up while also extending their lead on the M’s from 1 game to 6 games in that time frame.

Back on May 11, they were two games out of the Wild Card with two teams they would have to hop over for that honor. Today they are 2.5 games up in the Wild Card, though they play 4 games with the team that is trailing them – the Blue Jays.

On the negative side, despite playing very well the last few weeks, the Astros are 3.5 games back of the Rangers, which is the same amount of games they trailed them back when that post was written.

It is a very long season, but the Astros must keep ripping off solid sets of 20 or so games and see where that leads them.

Where are your thoughts heading on these subjects today?

←
→

42 responses to “Forrest, Kyle and other matters”

  1. Friend of the blog – AstroNut worked really hard on this, but he posted right before the new post appeared – so here is a repeat – a parody of a song about a casino burning down….that is now about a backup catcher burning it up.

    AstroNut
    JUNE 5, 2023 @ 12:04 PM
    I was surprised that Diaz was even playing when Maldy was catching. Maybe Dusty actually read the comments in the Memorial Day Thoughts? Maybe this will be the impetus to get Jose Abreu to fix whatever is wrong with his bat.

    They all came out to Corpus
    On the Gulf of Mexico shoreline
    To rate prospects with a hit tool
    They didn’t have much time
    Frank Sinatra and Blues Brothers
    Were crooning on the PA sounds
    But some field scout with a radar gun
    Earned his pay when Diaz he found

    Smoke that ball Yainer, fire it in the sky
    Smoke that ball Yainer

    He turned up at Palm Beach park
    Hits cried with a colossal sound
    Dusty and Dana were there to check him out
    They let the kid hang around
    When it all was over
    They had to find another space
    His time was running out
    Korey Lee would lose this race

    Smoke that ball Yainer, fire it in the sky
    Smoke that ball Yainer

    He ended up at Minute Maid
    It was sold out and loud in there
    We heard the Rolling Stones songs playing just outside
    Massaging our musical ears
    With a few red hots and a few cold drinks
    We made our bodies schlep
    No matter what we get out of him
    I know, I know we’ll never forget

    Smoke that ball Yainer, fire it in the sky
    Smoke that ball Yainer

    Like

    Reply

  2. Roger Craig dies at 93.
    Mike Scott was 5-11 in 1984 – went to see Craig in the off-season when Craig was out of baseball for short while and learned the spitter or the splitter and went 18-8 in 1985 and won the CY in 1986 in almost leading us to the WS.
    And Craig became manager of the Giants and spent a good amoutnt of time having umps check baseballs thrown by Mike Scott

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  3. The Astros have made such an effort and commitment to Forrest Whitley. Has he done the same? I don’t know. The results have been so erratic for so long. Is he injury prone, or is he not fit? I don’t know. He’s a smart guy, but sure has done some dumb things. At this point, maybe Dana Brown, who is not so invested personally, can include him in a deal for help we need this year. Then he’d not be a total loss.

    Like

    Reply

  4. Dan, everything else is water under the bridge at this point though. Sure, if we somehow knew that such a valuable commodity in Whitley would turn into a bust, we would have been happy with any number of guys.

    And all the other great Astro performers that we let go, I don’t even follow Springer and he was the guy I really hated to see go. Verlander, because he just left a few months ago is still on my radar. The thing is, we’ve remained relevant and thrived as we’ve lost one guy after the other. And several top prospects too.

    I think our GM will come up with some interesting solutions in less than two months. We’ll see how that goes, especially how our manager integrates anyone new that shows up. Our organization always keeps it interesting.

    Like

    Reply

  5. Well that was a fun way to start the road trip and put the Blue Jays back on their heels for this 4 game series.
    It would be great to get in to their bullpen early again tomorrow.
    – Yordan hit that one almost exactly like his Game 6 blast in the WS – went forever
    – Julks only had the one hit but the salami was the big hit of the game
    – Diaz and Meyers with 4 hits each – will it get them another start tomorrow?
    – Bielak keeps the bases full but somehow doesn’t give up too many runs

    Like

    Reply

    • It will be tough to keep us all happy with whatever lineup Dusty produces for tonight.

      I’m happy to see guys hitting at the same time. I am concerned about the curse of scoring a bunch of runs and then forgetting how to hit a day later. Gausman is no pushover.

      Like

      Reply

      • That should be interesting, to see if we can continue to score runs after scoring a bunch. It would be nice to give Hunter Brown some run support. Bielak just keeps amazing everyone by getting out of jams. Got to give it to him, he hasn’t folded up like a wet dish cloth when he’s gotten into these dilemmas.

        If he gets to play Yanier appears to be the real deal. He goes 4 for 5 as does Jake. That probably means he needs a day off to cool off. I hope not. Good to see Tucker going opo-taco. Like to see that more often. As TK and Blummer mentioned last night, the “no shift” rule hasn’t produced the results that all thought would happen but he seems to be heating up.

        As the Rangers show no indication of slowing down we need to keep up the winning to apply pressure on them.

        Like

      • I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t see Yanier until Friday.

        That move that sent Salazar out really hurts Diaz. In the end Dusty can’t put them both in the lineup on the same day unless he puts Diaz in the field. He can’t award Diaz with a few DH days – if Maldy gets hit in the mask by a pitch that rattles him in the 6th, you need to take him out, and Diaz is at DH he CAN be moved into catch, but you lose your DH and your pitcher as to bat for themselves. Now, I wouldn’t care, you would probably be deep enough into the game that you could just pinch hit the pitcher the one or two times, but it’s not how major league managers do it.

        Now he could put Diaz at 1B and still move him to catch if need be without losing the DH, but that means Abreu is at DH – 1) I don’t find Dusty that creative, and 2) I don’t think he wants to disturb Abreu in hopes that he catches fire. Abreu is a poor defensive 1b, there have been by my count at least 5 balls this year that he didn’t make a play on that Yuli would have. That said, Diaz isn’t going to win any gold gloves over there either.

        And doing that (Abreu at DH, Diaz at 1B) puts Yordan back in LF some, which takes at bats from that Julks/Meyers/Chas trio. Now, me, I don’t care, I think they are all 3 more limited hitters than Diaz, but you can’t argue that all of them have had moments that also are deserved of more playing time, especially yesterday.

        So, no, I don’t expect Diaz in the lineup today, maybe one of the next two after that. There just isn’t away to get him in there 3 or 4 of every 5 games without benching either Maldy or one of the three OF’ers (of which all 3 provide a better defensive setup than Yordan getting regular PT out there would).

        Like

      • Yeah the lineup situation is a tough one. Dusty after the game again emphasized this two days on he has been doing with the “young guys” like Julks, McCormick, Meyers and Diaz. I think Steven is right, the only way Diaz gets more ABs is if Maldy pulls a hammy or something, but you have to run faster than a jog to pull a hamstring – don’t you?
        And I think Steven is right we won’t likely see Diaz tonight. It sucks.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Steven, there used to be some entertaining extra inning games where pitchers were thrown out into the outfield or at first base because benches were so depleted. Most of them I’ve know loved that opportunity. In the scenario where Maldonado got hurt and we lost our DH, we’re only talking about one game out of 162. If we end up losing that game we would still likely be coming out ahead vs the scenario where Diaz sits on the bench to watch lesser hitters in 4/5 games. Unless he is our elite PH for late game heroics we should get him on the field at least 3 games a week. I do understand your argument that MLB managers don’t think that way….but it’s absurd to lean heavily into analytics and ignore that the biggest improvement you could make to your team’s offense is sitting on the bench so much. At the same time, we’re paying Abreu and Crane is probably not going to allow them to sit him too much.

        Like

      • Ah Devin – I absolutely agree. The Astros are in the bottom half of the AL in runs scored, and they could see immediate dividends in Altuve, Brantley, and Diaz in the lineup (and Abreu out). None of those are going to happen though. We will keep playing lower OBP players like Julks because they are having some success hitting, even if he seems immune to walks, and of course because of 60 million reasons, Abreu. If it makes us feel any better Pena is at .310 OBP, which means he is getting on base about 1 out of 50 at bats more than last year. Maybe further improvement will come for Pena, or maybe this is the highest point of the year, who knows.

        Like

  6. I don’t know if Whitley nets you anything at this point. Might as well just store him on the 60 day if you can. The question is does he warrant a 40 man spot in the spring.

    AstroNut’s work comes at a perfect time. Diaz was on fire yesterday. So was Jake from Rake Farm. I also heard his interview on MLB network where they referred to him as Rake Meyers and Jake “the Rake” Meyers. I think they are getting a little ahead of themselves, I mean he just did get his average back up over .250 and I don’t think Judge is in any danger of losing his HR lead here.

    Great series with the Angels. Ohtani and Trout are great against everyone else. For some reason they just don’t get it done against the Astros. I’ll take it. That Trout/Javier matchup is just crazy – to think Javier has had that success against him. It really doesn’t surprise me, the Astros have been a franchise that has stressed working the high part of the zone and Trout has struggled with the upper third.

    I’ve watched some Cole starts since he left. He isn’t quite living in the same velocity zip code he was in here but he still has plenty of punch. I am not surprised he has jumped back into being a Cy kinda guy.

    Verlander, maybe the carriage turned back into the pumpkin on that one. There has to be a point for all players to lose to father time. Jose Abreu looks like he is losing that fight too.

    I would expect Correa and Springer will outperform their Astros counterparts before all is said and done, but they are also injury prone stars that can play down to the crowd when they miss that regular PT or try and play through something. They could very well be in the midst of injury shortened windows of all-starness as well.

    Like

    Reply

  7. Whitley’s days with the organization are numbered. He won’t have time to prove himself to Houston or any other team this season, so that leads to his minor trade potential in the offseason.
    He will have a chance in 2024 spring training to earn a job, but that will involve a complete turnaround in his ability to pitch well against opposition. He will be out of options at the end of this season.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    • Wish I could disagree. A bad team like KC might make sense in an offseason trade for Whitley…but I’d need to look at their 40 man options to know for sure. He still misses bats…but then he doesn’t miss them at the worst times. Looking back at the 2016 draft, only 5 first rounders have not played in the majors. However, I wouldn’t classify any of the players who have made the majors as stars. A lot of teams would like their money back on that one.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  8. I firmly believe we are into the transition of the Astros catching corps. Korey Lee and Yainer Diaz are the future starting in 2024. Maldonado is in the plans for this season.

    Like

    Reply

    • 1oldpro, I want to agree, but why can’t I shake the thought we’ll hear at some point that Maldy has agreed to a one year extension? And I think that would also mean a Dusty extension too.

      But at some point the owner has to turn the club over to the GM he signed to replace the GM that he did not want.

      I think it safe to say that we’d be a better club today if our owner did not decide to run the club by committee this past winter. And I hope he realizes that today.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

      • I’d bet that Crane already realizes that but may not admit it. We shall see because the clubs actions will speak louder than words.
        As for Dusty and Maldy getting extensions I’d be willing to bet that certain individuals would be requesting a trade and others might go elsewhere to coach or manage another team.

        Like

      • I checked with Baseball Reference and Fangraphs on Martin and Yainer in 2023.
        In wRC+, Accumulated WAR, Offense, Defense and Baserunning Diaz’s metrics are all higher than Maldonado’s, who has had much more playing time and much lower production, percentage wise.
        I can only imagine what Diaz could contribute in the future.

        Like

      • 1OP, I get too pissed off when I try to rationalize Diaz’ lack of playing time. There is absolutely no good baseball reason for it. The manager is compromising the integrity of his best team on the field.

        Liked by 1 person

      • I can see with my eyes (as opposed to my nose?) that Yainer can hit. He is basically the second coming of Altuve (I know, that’s high praise). He is an aggressive hitter that can hit things out of the zone or in the zone. He isn’t going to draw a ton of walks, but he can flip the bat on a bad pitch and still put it somewhere, with velocity. Right now, the high ground ball rate has been his achilles hill, and he has given opposing SS’s plenty of opportunities.

        He had a lifetime average of .324 in the minors. This is no Jon Singleton or AJ Reed or Chris Carter. This guy is a hitter first, HR guy second. The homerun he hit on Sunday wasn’t even in the strike zone. It didn’t matter. He elevated on it and got on top of a ball that was almost chest high on him. He isn’t unique, but he is rare. Altuve was a better hitter but Yainer is stronger than Altuve was. And it turns out, he is a much better defender then some of us thought (kudos Dave you said this guy could catch too).

        I don’t think he is our best catching prospect. If you take prospect off of Brown (presumably you would since he is in the rotation) he is our best prospect period. When he gets a chance to play every day he is going to prove it.

        Our team would be instantly better not only if he replaced Maldy, but if he replaced Abreu or Julks or Meyers ABs as well. Which takes me to my original point – we don’t have to “bench” anyone, just move him around, DH and send Yordan out there to LF, play him a day or two a week at 1B (especially until Abreu actually gets a pulse). Catch him once or twice a week. Solidify him in the lineup as a presence and bat him 6th. And our below average offense is instantly better. But I, like UncleK, have zero confidence that Baker sees it the same way.

        Like

    • Well that wasn’t fun at all. Pretty pitiful effort by a team that scored double digits last night. Anybody see Sports Map HOU today. Big advocate for Yanier and Jake. Jake didn’t have it tonight and of course Yanier was back on the bench. Montero back to his usual self.

      Like

      Reply

  13. It’s good to see Jake, Corey and Chas all contributing. But once again, it looks like Chas has been relegated to utility outfielder status. He’s had the last two nights off while Jake has started the last four in center and Julks the last two in left.

    Chas, in his last four starts before his two days off played left, right, center and right/left.

    And I guess his bat is not that big a priority in our anemic offense. But as usual, he’s the best hitter of the three. Just look at the OPS+ and the BABip. For three years he’s provided a consistent bat and bounces back from injury quickly. But once again, he has not earned a darn thing.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  14. Today I would like to link to a friend of the blog, Gary Trujillo, who similarly runs a fan blog with an Oakland A’s theme.

    https://cococrispafro.wordpress.com/

    I enjoy his articles and I have true empathy for him and all Oakland fans as we have lived through a historic crash and burn here in Houston, but there was not a real shadow of a potential move hanging over our heads.

    In the first article – I enjoyed the Vida Blue vs. Hank Aaron All Star duel video and I love the reference to Rich Hill as Dick Mountain.
    Fun.

    Like

    Reply

    • Yes – interesting comparison that puts Meyers right up there with Chas. And Meyers has been hitting a lot better this season than last.
      I will say this about Chas
      1) If you factor up his numbers due to much less at bats than Meyers he would be up at 8 HRs and 25 RBIs.
      2) Partly due to his injury and mostly due to Dusty, Chas has not had the more consistent ABs that Meyers has been getting lately – it would be fun to see what he could produce if he wasn’t like two days on two or more days off.

      Like

      Reply

  16. Dan, a couple of things I noticed:

    1. Jake has a .330 BABip, Chas a .277.
    2. They are both performing above league average.

    Editorializing, I’d have to say that Chas is not getting enough love as it comes to his amount of play, as we both agree.

    Like

    Reply

  17. This post comes to you only because it’s been raining today and I’m waiting on going down for my swim. So I’ve been looking at a couple of stats.

    Yesterday 1oldpro posted a comment about metrics, comparing Yainer to Maldy. Today we get ERA.

    Hunter Brown has thrown 68.1 innings, 34.1 to Diaz, 34.0 to Maldy.
    He’s got 6 starts with each guy, averaging 5.68 innings to the rookie, 5.67 innings to the old-timer. Couldn’t be closer.

    I promise, I checked this three times. ERA with Yanier: 3.07. ERA with Maldy: 4.76.

    I will note that 3 of the 6 Diaz stats resulted in 7.0 innings pitched, with zero earned runs total.

    In the grand scheme of things, this might not mean much although I’d sure like to hear Dusty’s spin on this.

    Like

    Reply

    • Dave, did you notice that Maldonado caught Brown’s first start on 4/3 against Detroit
      (4.2IP, 4ER, ND)
      and then Diaz caught his next 6 starts
      (MIN, TEX, ATL, TAM, SF, LA – 34.1 IP, 10 ER, 3-1, 2 ND)? Maldonado has caught his last five starts
      (CHW, OAK, OAK, MIN, TOR, 29.1 IP, 14 ER, 2-2, 1ND)

      It’s possible the injuries to our staff have influenced when Dusty is using each catcher. It’s also possible this was completely random. I think we need a larger sample size to draw any conclusions.

      Like

      Reply

      • Devon, I’d like a larger sample size of Diaz catching. I don’t care whom he catches. I noted all 12 starts. And of course Maldy had the opener. And it could be completely random. If so, Dusty needs to quit his spin that we need to have Maldy’s veteran presence behind the plate so often. Do you think Brown really loves throwing to Maldy with such a disparity in the runs he gives up? 10 with Diaz back there and 18 with Maldy?

        Like

      • Well Dave I would argue that a pitcher wants to throw to the guy that gives him the best chance to win, so if a guy is going to average 0-4 with 2 K’s and the other guy is going to actually hit some, give me the run support. But I am not a major league pitcher.

        I can honestly say watching Diaz catch Bielak he was very helpful in a few strike calls (including a strike 3 that was out of zone) with framing. I haven’t checked any stats, but my eyes are telling me he is at least an average framer, maybe above average. I bet statcast knows how many pitches actually ended up out of the zone that were called strikes when he catches.

        Like

  18. Altuve is supposedly back for today’s game – now if he can stay on the field for a while that would be a blessing.

    Like

    Reply

    • Interesting line up for tonight’s game. Dubon replaces Pena, Kessinger (9) replaces Bregmman, Diaz @ catcher batting 6th, Chaz back in CF, and Abreu batting 5th . Blanco on the mound.

      Like

      Reply

  19. I’m feeling really old – I remember watching Grae’s grandfather, Don, who was a many time All-Star for the Cubs – think he played one or two other teams later in career but had to be with the Cubs at least a decade.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  20. Another excellent job by one of our Space Cowboy threesome. Sure need to start getting a few big hits in these tight games.

    Like

    Reply

  21. I have to think the lineup choice had a lot to do with the score. I don’t want to take anything from Bassitt guy pitched a game, I don’t remember seeing very many mistakes – that 2-0 pitch to Yordan in the 9th was a mistake and Yordan hit it hard but Kiermeier just made a play.

    The lineup just didn’t seem to put a lot of pressure on him though. Bregman out of it just pushed the number of pitches down – if Bregman bats 4 times and sees 9-10 more pitches than Kessinger does we could have had Bassitt out of there by the 7th. Instead Bassitt throws 81 pitches in 8 innings.

    It’s tough. Kids family came all the way to Toronto though. I probably would have played him too.

    Like

    Reply

Leave a reply to Devin_ Cancel reply