Rightly or wrongly, there were always two good arguments about why the Astros could survive after letting Justin Verlander go to the highest bidder.
1) The Astros had a lot of starting pitching depth with Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, and Hunter Brown.
2) The Astros’ offense would pick up some of the slack with the addition of Jose Abreu’s big bat and the return of Michael Brantley, who only played 64 games in 2022. Hey, and Jeremy Pena, who excelled in the playoffs, would bring more juice in his second season in the majors.
So, how is that working for the Astros?
1) Lance McCullers is just now tossing the ball on flat surfaces (I think the mound is not flat, as I recall), and if he recovers as fast from his elbow strain this season as he did last year, we might see him in August. And our chief cynic among the commenters noted how Javier had lost some zip on his fastball upon his return from his WBC stint. Astro fans are wincing as I type this.
2) Plus side, Jose Abreu is healthy and playing often in the pre-season. Negative side – Michael Brantley has not played yet and has spent time away from the club for some type of personal reasons. Hopefully, if what they are telling us is true, Uncle Mike will be back shortly after the start of the season.
Oh….yeah, we just lost the best second baseman and a top leadoff man in baseball as Jose Altuve, and his thumb go under the surgeon’s scalpel.
In a way, the loss of Altuve could be just as tough on the team as the loss of Verlander, while not as permanent. It is just a guess (I am not a doctor and did not stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night…), but Jose is not likely back until sometime in June. What does that mean?
Well, first of all, the last time Altuve did not play in the first game of the Astros season was in 2011, when he was preparing to play at A+ ball in Lancaster. After hitting .409 BA in 52 games at Lancaster, he then drooped to a pathetic (where’s my sarcasm font) .361 in 35 games at AA Corpus, which earned him a call-up to the big club on July 20, 2011. This was a crazy time when the worst team in the majors brought up Altuve, JD Martinez (debuted July 30), and Jimmy Paredes (debuted August 1) in a less than 2 weeks period.
Jose played well for the balance of the 2011 season, became an All Star in 2012, and then struggled a bit in 2013, where despite a good batting average, his on-base percentage and slugging plummeted, and he led the majors in caught stealing. We know the story after that, when he performed very well except for the 2020 season (Pandemic family worries? / Post cheating scandal hangover), took home one league MVP, 7 more All Star team nods, six Silver Sluggers, and one Gold Glove award.
This brings us back to the question at hand. How do you replace Jose Altuve, both on the field and in the lineup?
As we discussed hypothetically in the last post Next men up: Astros position players 2023 | CHIPALATTA, the best guess is that short term, the team would go with David Hensley / Mauricio Dubon for the second base spot. Long-term would it be one of those two taking the spot or filling in with Ryan Bannon or even Pedro Leon or possibly a trade pickup? And how do you fill this spot for an intermediate-term like two months? A trade does not seem right for that type of time frame; maybe a waiver pickup after teams cut back before the end of spring training. What about if a veteran (I think Yuli) does not get a roster spot in spring training and can opt out to help here? When they sign minor league contracts, they are often allowed to opt out if there is no spot for them.
And what about the lineup implications? The Astros have consistently filled the leadoff spot with a power guy from when George Springer led off to when Jose Altuve took it over. On Sunday’s radio broadcast, Robert Ford and Steve Sparks were pushing for Jeremy Pena, who fills both the speed and power requirements. He would make sense if they think he has improved his batting eye over the winter, his on base percentage from 2022 being the biggest drawback from leadoff consideration. Beyond him, perhaps Alex Bregman makes the most sense as one of the best at drawing a walk in the majors. If they wanted Springer 2.0, Kyle Tucker could be a consideration, as he has the power component and is a superior base stealer to George, and his OBP is decent but not Bregman-esque.
Whichever way the Astros go, they will be holding on for their leader to return. Altuve has been triggering the Astros offense for the last few years, and that is not likely to change.
CHIPALATTA 
Lot’s to discuss. The WBC impacted the Astros as much as anyone. We’ve had as any participants in the “exhibition” extravaganza as any club. Half our roster. And we still have to hold our breath. I don’t want Pressly to pitch again. I don’t want Tucker in the outfield or sliding hard into second. Along with the Phillies, our guys had the least amount of rest of any club this winter. Again. I give Dusty Baker credit. He has not complained, but he’s had an impossible task in getting his roster in sync.
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I’m more concerned about Alvarez than Altuve. There must be a name for what’s wrong with him but it’s a secret. Regardless, neither he nor Brantley have had a spring training. So we’ve lost two of our 3 lefty outfielders. That means we give Dirden a shot. and who is our DH? That means we give Diaz a real shot to hit most days, even if he does not catch as much as he should initially.
My opening day lineup
Bregman
Pena
Tucker
Abreu
Dirden
Diaz
Hensley
Chas
Maldy.
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Dave, I don’t want to mess up your lineup, but the Astros website says that that Alvarez’s expected return is “opening day” and, in the same column by Mactaggart, Yordan says it is not about repetitions but about when he feels good and the he says he “feels good” and is “moving forward”.
I think he is going to DH starting opening day if he feels good.
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1oldpro, that would be great. I am however dubious. Has the guy swung a bat since November? Is he hiding out on the back fields in a no photo zone hitting soft toss?
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The latest on the Astros MLB web site below and on the Sunday radio broadcast they said Yordan was set to hit in a game mid-week (we shall see).
DH Yordan Alvarez (sore left hand)
Expected return: Opening Day
Alvarez said it’s “still the plan” for him to be ready on Opening Day. Despite not swinging a bat for the first time until March 9, he appears to be on track. He progressed to on-field batting practice on March 17 after taking soft toss in the batting cage every other day for around a week. Alvarez, who suffered from inflammation in both of his hands during the 2022 season, showed up to camp with a sore left hand.
“I don’t think it’s a matter of how many at-bats [during spring],” Alvarez said. “It’s just when I feel good and when I feel comfortable in the batter’s box, I’m going to be OK. … It’s been a little frustrating not being able to get into games the last couple of weeks, but thanks to God, I feel good now and will start moving forward.” (Last updated: March 17)
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Heck OP, I just saw your lineup on last weeks post. We’re pretty close. I’ve got Diaz assuming Yordan can’t go. Who is is your replacement?
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The Astros have been conservative with guys the last few years, you can do that when you have talent. I wouldn’t be surprised if Yordan is pushed back another week in the next few days.
I would assume that Baker will pencil in Pena at leadoff. He led off their last game, and as you get closer to opening day you will see it become more consistency in the lineup and an indicator of where his head is. He led off 8 times last year, albeit to disastrous results. I’m just speculating on Bakermindset. I think Bregman bats second, and Tucker 3rd. Folks should be excited what they have seen from Tucker, I know guys can be hot in ST and cool off to start the season, but he is seeing it real good right now.
It should be Hensley at 2B and Dirden in LF, but we are probably going to get Meyers and Dubon. Dirden isn’t even on the 40 man, and the question is do the Astros release Madris, who hasn’t been terrible, in order to add him, or is Dirden a victim of “team control” and opens up at AAA?
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If Alvarez can’t go I would go with Diaz at DH in the 5 spot of dave’s lineup and then Hensley in 6th spot and Dirden in the 7 slot.
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Bergman is my choice for leading off. Best eye on the club for pitch selection has power . I like Hensley to fill in for Altuve. Keeping Dubon when we had the luxury of Altuve may have been defendable. But with his offensive limitations, I think the Astros have to look for a a player that has more than one tool .
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Larry – great to hear from you – I agree with you on Bregman and Hensley. I think you will have to put up with Dubon.
Daveb / uncle knuckle- always good to hear from you. Good points on the WBC and on Alvarez/Brantley
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I believe Altuve probably will not play on the big club until the All-Star break. I hope he comes back sooner but I don’t expect it. Just my humble opinion.
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I also don’t think the Astros should go out and try to find a second baseman from another organization. I’m a bit concerned about Javier, but I like our pitching. And while we might not be in first place in 10 weeks, I think we’ll still be a heck of a team assuming the injury bug does not turn into a pandemic.
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The Astros have enough other bats to make replacing Altuve with a lesser bat (which would be any 2B on the planet who is available and most who are not) at least survivable, if…. Yordan is OK to start the season and Brantley comes back within a couple weeks. Rolling out Alvarez, Brantley, Abreu, Tucker, Bregman, and Pena is really solid. It is a lot more iffy if you subtract Alvarez and Brantley and add in, say, Diaz and Jake Meyers to the lineup.
We’ve always known the biggest threat to the Astros might not be another team, but a year of buzzard’s luck with injuries. Hopefully, they get this stuff out of the way early and are healthy later in the season.
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/03/competition-committee-evaluating-potential-alterations-to-2023-rule-changes.html
My interpretation of this is that they may be discussing tweaking the rules on the pitch clock. I was listening to the game on Sunday on the radio and they were discussing how it does not always make sense, like when a pitcher is covering first. There should be more time given until the next pitch. They might add a few seconds here or there which they can do since they already have sliced 30 minutes off games.
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And a shoutout to Kevin Kraczkowski and the crawfishboxes for linking to us….
https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2023/3/21/23649817/astros-crawfish-boil-march-21-2023
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And I love their link to the following article
https://www.sportskeeda.com/baseball/news-mlb-twitter-reacts-veteran-pitcher-zack-greinke-implying-gave-spring-training-hits-work-pickoffs-galaxy-brain-greinke
That is just so Zack…..
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So strange!
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Updates – Yordan to play Thursday – Matt Gage sent to the minors
https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/astros-injuries-and-roster-moves
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My brother just texted me that Brantley is going on the 10 day IL – no surprise there
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Tucker not starting tonight. Don’t mind, but I do wonder why.
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He fouled a ball off his knee yesterday I believe
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I don’t think we will pick up any other free agents or trade to replace any of our injured players just yet. My friend Stephanie Lynn says “Nix on Dubon, I want Hensley at 2B!” She wrote this song:
Just flash that wide-webbed glove
Astro fans sound like they’re cheering
Whoo Dubon, whoo, said whoo
Bust out of that wild swing slump
Astro fans sound like they’re screaming
You’re due Dubon, due, you’re due
And the days go by, runners stranded in the wind
From the weak contact you’ve shown, I bemoan again
Said to my friend, Dusty (everything stopped)
Will his at-bats ever matter?
Is he no more (Is he no more) than a bush leaguer now?
Well, he seems broken-handed
Somethin’ within him
But the moment that he first laid
An oh-for-ten, all alone
On the edge of batting .217
Just flash that wide-webbed glove
Astro fans sound like they’re cheering
Whoo Dubon, whoo, said whoo
Bust out of that wild swing slump
Astro fans sound like they’re screaming
You’re due Dubon, due, you’re due
Well, you went hitless today
Maybe you will hit again tomorrow
Oh no, well the plate approach there
Well it was hauntingly inferior
When I see you doin’ what I don’t want to see
With the words of a druid and a voice from a sorcerer
And a profanity, nothin’ else mattered
Just flash that wide-webbed glove
Astro fans sound like they’re cheering
Whoo Dubon, whoo, said whoo
Bust out of that wild swing slump
Astro fans sound like they’re screaming
You’re due Dubon, due, you’re due
The groundskeepers never expect it when it rains
But the seat changes capacity
But the seat does not change
So with the slow graceless flow of your stroke
You went forth with an age old desire to chase
On the edge of batting .217
Ewww…ugggh!
Just flash that wide-webbed glove
Astro fans sound like they’re cheering
Whoo Dubon, whoo, said whoo
Bust out of that wild swing slump
Astro fans sound like they’re screaming
You’re due Dubon, due, you’re due
Well then suddenly there was no use
To be sitting in the ballpark
Oh no, in a flood of tears that no one really ever heard fall at all
When you went searchin’ for a mistake
Up in the zone and down the middle
But you did not find a barrel, just to hear the call
Of an umpire yelling, “Fouled away!” (Fouled away! Fouled away!)
Just flash that wide-webbed glove
Astro fans sound like they’re cheering
Whoo Dubon, whoo, said whoo
Bust out of that wild swing slump
Astro fans sound like they’re screaming
You’re due Dubon, due, you’re due
Well, you ground out (well, you ground out) in the morning (in the morning)
And you strike out (and you strike out) at nightfall (at nightfall)
Sometimes to behold you
Is to be unable to hold in my lunch
You’re making me many years older than you
(I’m many years older than you)
Ooh my lunch
A gust of vile winds blow
Astro fans seem like they smell something
Phew Dubon, phew, said phew
A gust of vile winds blow
Astro fans seem like they smell something
Phew Dubon, phew, said phew
I hear the call of an umpire
I hear the call of an umpire
I still hear the call of an umpire
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Yeah Astro Nut well done. We just have to get this team to stop getting injured and stop dragging our hearts around….
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Thought this was a different view of the top pitching prospects – yes, Hunter Brown is on there, but the other four are not the usual suspects, though their names have been popping up lately.
https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2023/3/21/23649528/houston-astros-top-five-pitching-prospects-for-2023
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I enjoyed reading that and the links to the top prospects at each position that came out earlier in the series. Recommend this to those who want their prospect memories refreshed, as I did.
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1oldpro, having second base options to cover an Altuve injury might be a lot easier a year from now.
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I also just realized that Forrest Whitley is not on the list.
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Here’s a laughable note. Unless it changes at game time today your DH is Maricio Dubon. No regulars in the line up at all. Of Course it’s possible all the regulars stayed home and didn’t make the trip.
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Justin Dirden is not on the 40 man. And he did not hit a whole lot over 32 games with Sugarland in late 2022, but he did have 28 RBI’s during that brief effort. And he’s hit everywhere else. He’s had a very limited amount of time to produce anything in ST. But he does have a 1.273 OPS and as of right now, a .500 OBP and a .364 BA. What if he’s still doing this next week? On a club that might have just one left-handed bat on Opening Day?
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It’s probably not ideal that Hunter Brown was scratched today.
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I find it interesting that our ST leader board [offense] includes:
1. hits – Jose Abreu [11]
2. EBHs – Jose Abreu [8]
3. RBIs – Corey Julks [10]
4. Runs Scored – Tie – Justin Dirden & CJ Stubbs [6]
5. BBs drawn – David Hensley [8];
6. Ks – David Hensley [15]
7. OBP [20 or more AB s] – Justin Dirden [.500]
The leader board as of today also includes [pitching]:
1. Strikeouts – Ronel Blanco [17]
2. WHIP [over 10 IP] – Ronel Blanco [0.86]
3. ERA [over 10 IP] – Ronel Blanco [0.64]
4. BAA [over 1o IP] – Bryan Garcia [.167; Blanco 2nd at .184]
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